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Rushian

Statistical Football Prediction Model 2008

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Re: Statistical Football Prediction Model 2008 Unfortunately, I didn't get the chance to post some further analysis but hopefully that will follow next week. For now, here are this weekend's picks:

No

Div

Date

Home Team

Away Team

Bet

Stake

Bet Odds

Bookmaker

W/L/P

Profit/Loss

410

E1

21/11/2008

Swansea

Birmingham

A

10

2.88

Stan James

P

0.00

411

E3

21/11/2008

Grimsby

Bournemouth

A

10

2.88

Bet365

P

0.00

412

E0

22/11/2008

Aston Villa

Man United

A

10

1.83

Blue Square

P

0.00

413

E0

22/11/2008

Chelsea

Newcastle

D

10

6.50

VC Bet

P

0.00

414

E1

22/11/2008

Ipswich

Derby

H

10

2.10

Ladbrokes

P

0.00

415

E1

22/11/2008

Nott'm Forest

Norwich

H

10

2.20

Bwin

P

0.00

416

E1

22/11/2008

Plymouth

Cardiff

A

10

3.00

Ladbrokes

P

0.00

417

E1

22/11/2008

Preston

Barnsley

H

10

1.90

Bwin

P

0.00

418

E1

22/11/2008

Sheffield Weds

Coventry

H

10

2.10

Bet365

P

0.00

419

E2

22/11/2008

Brighton

Huddersfield

H

10

2.35

VC Bet

P

0.00

420

E2

22/11/2008

Carlisle

Cheltenham

H

10

1.80

Bet365

P

0.00

421

E2

22/11/2008

Hereford

Northampton

D

10

3.40

Bet365

P

0.00

422

E2

22/11/2008

Leeds

Hartlepool

H

10

1.67

Ladbrokes

P

0.00

423

E2

22/11/2008

Leyton Orient

Millwall

H

10

2.88

Bet365

P

0.00

424

E2

22/11/2008

Scunthorpe

Leicester

H

10

2.50

Ladbrokes

P

0.00

425

E2

22/11/2008

Walsall

Milton Keynes Dons

H

10

2.62

Bet365

P

0.00

426

E2

22/11/2008

Yeovil

Tranmere

D

10

3.40

Ladbrokes

P

0.00

427

E3

22/11/2008

Brentford

Darlington

D

10

3.40

Ladbrokes

P

0.00

428

E3

22/11/2008

Bury

Gillingham

D

10

3.40

Ladbrokes

P

0.00

429

E3

22/11/2008

Chester

Aldershot

H

10

2.70

Ladbrokes

P

0.00

430

E3

22/11/2008

Chesterfield

Accrington

H

10

1.80

Ladbrokes

P

0.00

431

E3

22/11/2008

Dag and Red

Notts County

A

10

3.50

Blue Square

P

0.00

432

E3

22/11/2008

Lincoln

Shrewsbury

H

10

2.50

Bet365

P

0.00

433

E0

24/11/2008

Wigan

Everton

A

10

2.88

Bet365

P

0.00

As always, fingers crossed :hope

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Re: Statistical Football Prediction Model 2008 Just realised that there is a Championship match tonight apart from the Wigan - Everton game. Unfortunately, the football-data website is not updated so the system's picks will be updated once that is ready... According to the system, the Barnsley - Burnley match qualifies as a Home Win if the best odds (according to the website) for a HW are 2.64 or over or it qualifies as a Draw if the Draw odds are3.40 or over. :D I'll be back in later to update the selections. :hope

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Re: Statistical Football Prediction Model 2008 At time of reading previous post I got Barnsley at 2.82 on Betfair. :ok £30 stake, was a serious sweat at the end though :puke Ive had many sides blow 2 goal leads this season, 3 would have took the biscuit. Many thanks for the top tip mate :cheers

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Re: Statistical Football Prediction Model 2008 Really glad that the pick came through for you andy :nana although I should reiterate that the system is still under monitoring and for me this is still a paper trail! I guess you are buying the next round of beers! :beer

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Re: Statistical Football Prediction Model 2008 The odds for tonight's set of matches are ready and the system has highlighted the following picks:

No

Div

Date

Home Team

Away Team

Bet

Stake

Bet Odds

Bookmaker

W/L/P

Profit/Loss

434

E1

25/11/2008

Birmingham

Ipswich

A

10

4.75

Blue Square

P

0.00

435

E1

25/11/2008

Blackpool

Sheffield Weds

A

10

3.25

Bet365

P

0.00

436

E1

25/11/2008

Coventry

Swansea

H

10

2.38

Bet365

P

0.00

437

E1

25/11/2008

Norwich

Crystal Palace

A

10

3.00

Bet365

P

0.00

438

E2

25/11/2008

Colchester

Yeovil

H

10

1.91

Bet365

P

0.00

439

E2

25/11/2008

Huddersfield

Leyton Orient

A

10

4.50

Bet365

P

0.00

440

E2

25/11/2008

Northampton

Leeds

H

10

3.60

Bet365

P

0.00

441

E2

25/11/2008

Oldham

Walsall

A

10

4.75

Bet365

P

0.00

442

E2

25/11/2008

Tranmere

Scunthorpe

H

10

2.75

Bet365

P

0.00

443

E3

25/11/2008

Gillingham

Rochdale

H

10

2.50

Bet365

P

0.00

444

E3

25/11/2008

Macclesfield

Grimsby

A

10

3.50

Gamebookers

P

0.00

445

E3

25/11/2008

Notts County

Wycombe

D

10

3.30

Bet365

P

0.00

446

E3

25/11/2008

Port Vale

Barnet

H

10

1.91

Bet365

P

0.00

447

E3

25/11/2008

Shrewsbury

Dag and Red

H

10

1.83

Bet365

P

0.00

Fingers firmly crossed :hope

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Re: Statistical Football Prediction Model 2008 Lots of away picks for the system this weekend:

No

Div

Date

Home Team

Away Team

Bet

Stake

Bet Odds

Bookmaker

W/L/P

Profit/Loss

448

E0

29/11/2008

Middlesbrough

Newcastle

H

10

2.25

Blue Square

P

0.00

449

E0

29/11/2008

Sunderland

Bolton

A

10

3.30

Bet365

P

0.00

450

E0

29/11/2008

Wigan

West Brom

A

10

5.00

Bet365

P

0.00

451

E1

29/11/2008

Burnley

Derby

A

10

4.00

Bet365

P

0.00

452

E1

29/11/2008

Ipswich

Sheffield United

H

10

2.38

Bet365

P

0.00

453

E1

29/11/2008

Plymouth

Blackpool

A

10

4.33

Stan James

P

0.00

454

E1

29/11/2008

Preston

Bristol City

H

10

2.10

VC Bet

P

0.00

455

E1

29/11/2008

Sheffield Weds

Norwich

H

10

2.15

Bwin

P

0.00

456

E1

29/11/2008

Watford

Doncaster

A

10

4.50

VC Bet

P

0.00

457

E1

29/11/2008

Wolves

Birmingham

A

10

3.30

Blue Square

P

0.00

458

E3

29/11/2008

Accrington

Bury

A

10

2.62

Blue Square

P

0.00

459

E0

30/11/2008

Chelsea

Arsenal

A

10

5.50

Blue Square

P

0.00

460

E0

30/11/2008

Man City

Man United

A

10

1.91

Stan James

P

0.00

461

E0

30/11/2008

Tottenham

Everton

A

10

4.33

Stan James

P

0.00

462

E1

30/11/2008

Swansea

Cardiff

A

10

3.00

Stan James

P

0.00

463

E1

1/12/2008

Reading

Coventry

H

10

1.57

Blue Square

P

0.00

Fingers crossed for further improvement :hope

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Re: Statistical Football Prediction Model 2008 Either no-one has had a similar case of his/her real system (or a paper trail such as this one) being so similar to the validation set, or nobody cares enough to share a comment... Eitherway, the silence is sometimes deafening! :\ Anyway, one pick is highlighted for today in the battle of the negative points :eek:

No

Div

Date

Home Team

Away Team

Bet

Stake

Bet Odds

W/L/P

Profit/Loss

464

E3

2/12/2008

Luton

Bournemouth

H

10

2.20

P

0.00

Fingers crossed as always :hope

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Re: Statistical Football Prediction Model 2008 Great work Rushian. I usually come here once or twice a week and your system is one ive been looking at. Thought id finally register and leave a comment! Thats what?... 1500 bets with proven good profit. The backtesting results are pretty much spot on with the actual bets placed! Youve definitly got something here. I ain't going to tail this system now mid-season, but if the next 6 months show the same success, ill be with you next season! Though a 1500+ sample pretty much shows the credibilty of what you got here. Good stuff :thumbsup

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Re: Statistical Football Prediction Model 2008 Hi Rushian Glad to see your system is now showing a decent profit after the recent good run. As you say, remarkable how similar the figures are for live testing and the validation period. Be interesting to see which way it goes now, of course I hope the recent positive trend continues for you. Looks like you might be onto something here, well done :)

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Re: Statistical Football Prediction Model 2008 Thanks for the kind words kaynem and NE! Re-readng the last few posts, it would seem as if I was fishing for compliments but let me assure you, that could not be further than the truth! :( I was genuinely astonished about how similar the indicators that I measure performed in the live-testing and the validation. And seeing as there are many statistically oriented systems in this forum, I was wondering if other fellow posters experienced something similar. As for the system's current performance, although recent results have been encouraging, I would be the first to be quite sceptical for now, as things can change very quickly at these kind of odds. In fact, if my reasoning about the probability of a negative yield is correct, I estimate such a probability currently at 20% which is very high... Hence, I would argue that definitely a lot more picks are needed to judge the system. Anyway, here's hoping that the recent form continues :cheers

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Re: Statistical Football Prediction Model 2008

Hence' date=' I would argue that definitely a lot more picks are needed to judge the system. Anyway, here's hoping that the recent form continues :cheers[/quote'] Really, you think so? Im thinking with now a season and a half tracked its up 9.2 units at a 1 unit stake. Even if you end up level in the last half of the season, at least this season wouldnt go down as a dud and give a reasonable return. Last seasons unit profit is pretty good. Saying this, how exactly did your work your backtesting? Was it over the whole 07/08 season? Im new to all this tbh and have no idea how long you can determine how legitimate a system can be?

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Re: Statistical Football Prediction Model 2008

Really, you think so? Im thinking with now a season and a half tracked its up 9.2 units at a 1 unit stake. Even if you end up level in the last half of the season, at least this season wouldnt go down as a dud and give a reasonable return. Last seasons unit profit is pretty good. Saying this, how exactly did your work your backtesting? Was it over the whole 07/08 season? Im new to all this tbh and have no idea how long you can determine how legitimate a system can be?
Yes, backtesting was done on the same leagues (i.e. Premiership, Championship, League One and Two - E0, E1, E2 and E3) over the whole 2007/08 season. However, although there are a lot of picks, the standard error of this year's mean yield (i.e. a measure of the variability of the average "value" of these bets) is still quite high (7.2%). An average yield of 6.1% with a standard error of 7.2% can result with a reasonable probability, in the long run, in overall loss. [More on this, and on chi-squared robustness tests can be found in the thread here.] That's why I am thinking that more bets are needed. Just a point to note here: the standard error of the mean yield was estimated using only this year's picks, as I updated the strength of the teams at the beginning of the year. So, even though aggregating the results should not make a difference if the underlying value of the picks is still there, I thought that doing so would not be correct since I would be putting together picks from two "theoretically" different systems.

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Re: Statistical Football Prediction Model 2008 Quickly approaching the 500-bet mark... here are this weekend's system picks:

No

Div

Date

Home Team

Away Team

Bet

Stake

Bet Odds

Bookmaker

W/L/P

Profit/Loss

465

E0

6/12/2008

Arsenal

Wigan

H

10

1.35

Gamebookers

P

0.00

466

E0

6/12/2008

Bolton

Chelsea

A

10

1.62

Ladbrokes

P

0.00

467

E0

6/12/2008

Fulham

Man City

H

10

2.65

VC Bet

P

0.00

468

E0

6/12/2008

Man United

Sunderland

H

10

1.20

Interwetten

P

0.00

469

E0

6/12/2008

Newcastle

Stoke

H

10

1.83

Blue Square

P

0.00

470

E1

6/12/2008

Bristol City

Swansea

H

10

2.38

Bet365

P

0.00

471

E1

6/12/2008

Cardiff

Preston

A

10

3.50

William Hill

P

0.00

472

E1

6/12/2008

Derby

Crystal Palace

A

10

3.00

Bet365

P

0.00

473

E1

6/12/2008

Doncaster

Plymouth

H

10

2.60

Ladbrokes

P

0.00

474

E1

6/12/2008

QPR

Wolves

H

10

3.00

Bet365

P

0.00

475

E1

6/12/2008

Sheffield United

Burnley

H

10

2.10

Stan James

P

0.00

476

E2

6/12/2008

Hartlepool

Yeovil

A

10

5.00

Bet365

P

0.00

477

E2

6/12/2008

Huddersfield

Walsall

H

10

2.10

Interwetten

P

0.00

478

E2

6/12/2008

Millwall

Bristol Rvs

D

10

3.50

Bet365

P

0.00

479

E2

6/12/2008

Northampton

Leyton Orient

H

10

2.25

Bet365

P

0.00

480

E2

6/12/2008

Stockport

Peterboro

A

10

2.80

Ladbrokes

P

0.00

481

E2

6/12/2008

Swindon

Carlisle

A

10

3.10

Bet365

P

0.00

482

E3

6/12/2008

Accrington

Brentford

A

10

2.40

Bet365

P

0.00

483

E3

6/12/2008

Aldershot

Wycombe

A

10

2.62

Blue Square

P

0.00

484

E3

6/12/2008

Bournemouth

Chester

H

10

2.00

Blue Square

P

0.00

485

E3

6/12/2008

Bradford

Dag and Red

H

10

1.91

Bet365

P

0.00

486

E3

6/12/2008

Darlington

Rochdale

A

10

3.50

Blue Square

P

0.00

487

E3

6/12/2008

Gillingham

Chesterfield

A

10

3.60

Ladbrokes

P

0.00

488

E3

6/12/2008

Macclesfield

Bury

H

10

2.88

Bet365

P

0.00

489

E3

6/12/2008

Notts County

Morecambe

A

10

3.40

Ladbrokes

P

0.00

490

E3

6/12/2008

Port Vale

Grimsby

H

10

2.00

Bet365

P

0.00

491

E0

7/12/2008

West Brom

Portsmouth

H

10

2.80

Blue Square

P

0.00

492

E1

7/12/2008

Norwich

Ipswich

A

10

2.75

Ladbrokes

P

0.00

493

E0

8/12/2008

West Ham

Tottenham

A

10

2.75

Stan James

P

0.00

Fingers crossed for a profitable weekend :hope

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Re: Statistical Football Prediction Model 2008 The football-data website has not yet been updated with the midweek Championship odds but from a quick look (Bet365 had them at 4.50 some point today), Southampton will also qualify for tonight. So consider this another system pick, with odds being the best available once the website is updated. I will be back later this evening and update the thread with the midweek selections, assuming the website is updated!

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Re: Statistical Football Prediction Model 2008 Seven more picks for Tuesday/Wednesday bringing the total to 499 selections:

No

Div

Date

Home Team

Away Team

Bet

Stake

Bet Odds

Bookmaker

W/L/P

Profit/Loss

493

E1

9/12/2008

Nott'm Forest

Sheffield United

H

10

2.80

Bet365

P

0.00

494

E1

9/12/2008

Plymouth

Birmingham

D

10

3.30

Bet365

P

0.00

495

E1

9/12/2008

Preston

Doncaster

A

10

5.00

Bet365

P

0.00

496

E1

9/12/2008

Reading

Blackpool

H

10

1.50

Bet365

P

0.00

497

E1

9/12/2008

Swansea

Barnsley

A

10

5.00

Stan James

P

0.00

498

E1

10/12/2008

Ipswich

Bristol City

H

10

1.91

Ladbrokes

P

0.00

499

E1

10/12/2008

Watford

Norwich

H

10

2.25

Stan James

P

0.00

Fingers crossed for a positive midweek batch of selections :hope

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Re: Statistical Football Prediction Model 2008 Football-data once again are yet to be updated, so tonight's picks are in provisional form:

  • Chesterfield is a definite pick according to the system at the best available odds.
  • Brighton is a pick assuming that the best odds for a Home Win are not higher than 2.91.

I'll be back, once football-data is up to date. Fingers crossed :hope

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Re: Statistical Football Prediction Model 2008 According to the website, Brighton was in fact available at 3.00 which made it a non-qualifying match according to the system as stated in my previous post. However Chesterfield was a system pick and is included below with the rest of the weekend's picks:

No

Div

Date

Home Team

Away Team

Bet

Stake

Bet Odds

Bookmaker

W/L/P

Profit/Loss

500

E3

12/12/2008

Chesterfield

Macclesfield

H

10

1.91

Blue Square

L

-10.00

501

E0

13/12/2008

Liverpool

Hull

H

10

1.36

Gamebookers

P

0.00

502

E0

13/12/2008

Middlesbrough

Arsenal

A

10

1.80

Bet365

P

0.00

503

E0

13/12/2008

Stoke

Fulham

A

10

3.00

Blue Square

P

0.00

504

E0

13/12/2008

Sunderland

West Brom

A

10

3.80

Bet365

P

0.00

505

E0

13/12/2008

Tottenham

Man United

A

10

1.85

Gamebookers

P

0.00

506

E1

13/12/2008

Crystal Palace

Doncaster

A

10

6.00

Blue Square

P

0.00

507

E1

13/12/2008

Ipswich

Cardiff

H

10

2.25

Bwin

P

0.00

508

E1

13/12/2008

Nott'm Forest

Blackpool

H

10

2.38

Stan James

P

0.00

509

E1

13/12/2008

Plymouth

QPR

H

10

2.50

Bet365

P

0.00

510

E1

13/12/2008

Preston

Birmingham

H

10

2.88

Ladbrokes

P

0.00

511

E1

13/12/2008

Reading

Norwich

H

10

1.50

Bet365

P

0.00

512

E1

13/12/2008

Sheffield Weds

Bristol City

H

10

2.25

Stan James

P

0.00

513

E1

13/12/2008

Swansea

Sheffield United

A

10

3.00

Bet365

P

0.00

514

E1

13/12/2008

Watford

Coventry

H

10

2.25

Ladbrokes

P

0.00

515

E2

13/12/2008

Bristol Rvs

Tranmere

A

10

2.88

Bet365

P

0.00

516

E2

13/12/2008

Hereford

Hartlepool

D

10

3.40

Ladbrokes

P

0.00

517

E2

13/12/2008

Leyton Orient

Cheltenham

A

10

4.20

Blue Square

P

0.00

518

E2

13/12/2008

Southend

Huddersfield

H

10

2.25

Blue Square

P

0.00

519

E2

13/12/2008

Walsall

Millwall

H

10

2.70

Blue Square

P

0.00

520

E3

13/12/2008

Barnet

Gillingham

H

10

3.10

Bet365

P

0.00

521

E3

13/12/2008

Brentford

Bradford

H

10

2.38

Ladbrokes

P

0.00

522

E3

13/12/2008

Chester

Notts County

H

10

2.50

Blue Square

P

0.00

523

E3

13/12/2008

Dag and Red

Exeter

H

10

2.20

Ladbrokes

P

0.00

524

E3

13/12/2008

Morecambe

Darlington

H

10

3.00

Ladbrokes

P

0.00

525

E0

14/12/2008

Chelsea

West Ham

H

10

1.25

Bet365

P

0.00

526

E0

14/12/2008

Portsmouth

Newcastle

H

10

2.10

Gamebookers

P

0.00

Another 26 picks to go... Fingers crossed :hope

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