Rushian Posted November 21, 2008 Author Share Posted November 21, 2008 Re: Statistical Football Prediction Model 2008 Unfortunately, I didn't get the chance to post some further analysis but hopefully that will follow next week. For now, here are this weekend's picks: No Div Date Home Team Away Team Bet Stake Bet Odds Bookmaker W/L/P Profit/Loss 410 E1 21/11/2008 Swansea Birmingham A 10 2.88 Stan James P 0.00 411 E3 21/11/2008 Grimsby Bournemouth A 10 2.88 Bet365 P 0.00 412 E0 22/11/2008 Aston Villa Man United A 10 1.83 Blue Square P 0.00 413 E0 22/11/2008 Chelsea Newcastle D 10 6.50 VC Bet P 0.00 414 E1 22/11/2008 Ipswich Derby H 10 2.10 Ladbrokes P 0.00 415 E1 22/11/2008 Nott'm Forest Norwich H 10 2.20 Bwin P 0.00 416 E1 22/11/2008 Plymouth Cardiff A 10 3.00 Ladbrokes P 0.00 417 E1 22/11/2008 Preston Barnsley H 10 1.90 Bwin P 0.00 418 E1 22/11/2008 Sheffield Weds Coventry H 10 2.10 Bet365 P 0.00 419 E2 22/11/2008 Brighton Huddersfield H 10 2.35 VC Bet P 0.00 420 E2 22/11/2008 Carlisle Cheltenham H 10 1.80 Bet365 P 0.00 421 E2 22/11/2008 Hereford Northampton D 10 3.40 Bet365 P 0.00 422 E2 22/11/2008 Leeds Hartlepool H 10 1.67 Ladbrokes P 0.00 423 E2 22/11/2008 Leyton Orient Millwall H 10 2.88 Bet365 P 0.00 424 E2 22/11/2008 Scunthorpe Leicester H 10 2.50 Ladbrokes P 0.00 425 E2 22/11/2008 Walsall Milton Keynes Dons H 10 2.62 Bet365 P 0.00 426 E2 22/11/2008 Yeovil Tranmere D 10 3.40 Ladbrokes P 0.00 427 E3 22/11/2008 Brentford Darlington D 10 3.40 Ladbrokes P 0.00 428 E3 22/11/2008 Bury Gillingham D 10 3.40 Ladbrokes P 0.00 429 E3 22/11/2008 Chester Aldershot H 10 2.70 Ladbrokes P 0.00 430 E3 22/11/2008 Chesterfield Accrington H 10 1.80 Ladbrokes P 0.00 431 E3 22/11/2008 Dag and Red Notts County A 10 3.50 Blue Square P 0.00 432 E3 22/11/2008 Lincoln Shrewsbury H 10 2.50 Bet365 P 0.00 433 E0 24/11/2008 Wigan Everton A 10 2.88 Bet365 P 0.00 As always, fingers crossed :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rushian Posted November 21, 2008 Author Share Posted November 21, 2008 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rushian Posted November 23, 2008 Author Share Posted November 23, 2008 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rushian Posted November 24, 2008 Author Share Posted November 24, 2008 Re: Statistical Football Prediction Model 2008 Just realised that there is a Championship match tonight apart from the Wigan - Everton game. Unfortunately, the football-data website is not updated so the system's picks will be updated once that is ready... According to the system, the Barnsley - Burnley match qualifies as a Home Win if the best odds (according to the website) for a HW are 2.64 or over or it qualifies as a Draw if the Draw odds are3.40 or over. :D I'll be back in later to update the selections. :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rushian Posted November 25, 2008 Author Share Posted November 25, 2008 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyfmfb Posted November 25, 2008 Share Posted November 25, 2008 Re: Statistical Football Prediction Model 2008 At time of reading previous post I got Barnsley at 2.82 on Betfair. :ok £30 stake, was a serious sweat at the end though :puke Ive had many sides blow 2 goal leads this season, 3 would have took the biscuit. Many thanks for the top tip mate :cheers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rushian Posted November 25, 2008 Author Share Posted November 25, 2008 Re: Statistical Football Prediction Model 2008 Really glad that the pick came through for you andy :nana although I should reiterate that the system is still under monitoring and for me this is still a paper trail! I guess you are buying the next round of beers! :beer Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rushian Posted November 25, 2008 Author Share Posted November 25, 2008 Re: Statistical Football Prediction Model 2008 The odds for tonight's set of matches are ready and the system has highlighted the following picks: No Div Date Home Team Away Team Bet Stake Bet Odds Bookmaker W/L/P Profit/Loss 434 E1 25/11/2008 Birmingham Ipswich A 10 4.75 Blue Square P 0.00 435 E1 25/11/2008 Blackpool Sheffield Weds A 10 3.25 Bet365 P 0.00 436 E1 25/11/2008 Coventry Swansea H 10 2.38 Bet365 P 0.00 437 E1 25/11/2008 Norwich Crystal Palace A 10 3.00 Bet365 P 0.00 438 E2 25/11/2008 Colchester Yeovil H 10 1.91 Bet365 P 0.00 439 E2 25/11/2008 Huddersfield Leyton Orient A 10 4.50 Bet365 P 0.00 440 E2 25/11/2008 Northampton Leeds H 10 3.60 Bet365 P 0.00 441 E2 25/11/2008 Oldham Walsall A 10 4.75 Bet365 P 0.00 442 E2 25/11/2008 Tranmere Scunthorpe H 10 2.75 Bet365 P 0.00 443 E3 25/11/2008 Gillingham Rochdale H 10 2.50 Bet365 P 0.00 444 E3 25/11/2008 Macclesfield Grimsby A 10 3.50 Gamebookers P 0.00 445 E3 25/11/2008 Notts County Wycombe D 10 3.30 Bet365 P 0.00 446 E3 25/11/2008 Port Vale Barnet H 10 1.91 Bet365 P 0.00 447 E3 25/11/2008 Shrewsbury Dag and Red H 10 1.83 Bet365 P 0.00 Fingers firmly crossed :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rushian Posted November 25, 2008 Author Share Posted November 25, 2008 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rushian Posted November 28, 2008 Author Share Posted November 28, 2008 Re: Statistical Football Prediction Model 2008 Lots of away picks for the system this weekend: No Div Date Home Team Away Team Bet Stake Bet Odds Bookmaker W/L/P Profit/Loss 448 E0 29/11/2008 Middlesbrough Newcastle H 10 2.25 Blue Square P 0.00 449 E0 29/11/2008 Sunderland Bolton A 10 3.30 Bet365 P 0.00 450 E0 29/11/2008 Wigan West Brom A 10 5.00 Bet365 P 0.00 451 E1 29/11/2008 Burnley Derby A 10 4.00 Bet365 P 0.00 452 E1 29/11/2008 Ipswich Sheffield United H 10 2.38 Bet365 P 0.00 453 E1 29/11/2008 Plymouth Blackpool A 10 4.33 Stan James P 0.00 454 E1 29/11/2008 Preston Bristol City H 10 2.10 VC Bet P 0.00 455 E1 29/11/2008 Sheffield Weds Norwich H 10 2.15 Bwin P 0.00 456 E1 29/11/2008 Watford Doncaster A 10 4.50 VC Bet P 0.00 457 E1 29/11/2008 Wolves Birmingham A 10 3.30 Blue Square P 0.00 458 E3 29/11/2008 Accrington Bury A 10 2.62 Blue Square P 0.00 459 E0 30/11/2008 Chelsea Arsenal A 10 5.50 Blue Square P 0.00 460 E0 30/11/2008 Man City Man United A 10 1.91 Stan James P 0.00 461 E0 30/11/2008 Tottenham Everton A 10 4.33 Stan James P 0.00 462 E1 30/11/2008 Swansea Cardiff A 10 3.00 Stan James P 0.00 463 E1 1/12/2008 Reading Coventry H 10 1.57 Blue Square P 0.00 Fingers crossed for further improvement :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rushian Posted November 30, 2008 Author Share Posted November 30, 2008 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rushian Posted December 1, 2008 Author Share Posted December 1, 2008 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rushian Posted December 1, 2008 Author Share Posted December 1, 2008 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rushian Posted December 2, 2008 Author Share Posted December 2, 2008 Re: Statistical Football Prediction Model 2008 Either no-one has had a similar case of his/her real system (or a paper trail such as this one) being so similar to the validation set, or nobody cares enough to share a comment... Eitherway, the silence is sometimes deafening! :\ Anyway, one pick is highlighted for today in the battle of the negative points :eek: No Div Date Home Team Away Team Bet Stake Bet Odds Bookmaker W/L/P Profit/Loss 464 E3 2/12/2008 Luton Bournemouth H 10 2.20 Bet365 P 0.00 Fingers crossed as always :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kaynem Posted December 2, 2008 Share Posted December 2, 2008 Re: Statistical Football Prediction Model 2008 Great work Rushian. I usually come here once or twice a week and your system is one ive been looking at. Thought id finally register and leave a comment! Thats what?... 1500 bets with proven good profit. The backtesting results are pretty much spot on with the actual bets placed! Youve definitly got something here. I ain't going to tail this system now mid-season, but if the next 6 months show the same success, ill be with you next season! Though a 1500+ sample pretty much shows the credibilty of what you got here. Good stuff :thumbsup Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Norfolk Enchance Posted December 2, 2008 Share Posted December 2, 2008 Re: Statistical Football Prediction Model 2008 Hi Rushian Glad to see your system is now showing a decent profit after the recent good run. As you say, remarkable how similar the figures are for live testing and the validation period. Be interesting to see which way it goes now, of course I hope the recent positive trend continues for you. Looks like you might be onto something here, well done :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rushian Posted December 2, 2008 Author Share Posted December 2, 2008 Re: Statistical Football Prediction Model 2008 Thanks for the kind words kaynem and NE! Re-readng the last few posts, it would seem as if I was fishing for compliments but let me assure you, that could not be further than the truth! :( I was genuinely astonished about how similar the indicators that I measure performed in the live-testing and the validation. And seeing as there are many statistically oriented systems in this forum, I was wondering if other fellow posters experienced something similar. As for the system's current performance, although recent results have been encouraging, I would be the first to be quite sceptical for now, as things can change very quickly at these kind of odds. In fact, if my reasoning about the probability of a negative yield is correct, I estimate such a probability currently at 20% which is very high... Hence, I would argue that definitely a lot more picks are needed to judge the system. Anyway, here's hoping that the recent form continues :cheers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kaynem Posted December 2, 2008 Share Posted December 2, 2008 Re: Statistical Football Prediction Model 2008 Hence' date=' I would argue that definitely a lot more picks are needed to judge the system. Anyway, here's hoping that the recent form continues :cheers[/quote'] Really, you think so? Im thinking with now a season and a half tracked its up 9.2 units at a 1 unit stake. Even if you end up level in the last half of the season, at least this season wouldnt go down as a dud and give a reasonable return. Last seasons unit profit is pretty good. Saying this, how exactly did your work your backtesting? Was it over the whole 07/08 season? Im new to all this tbh and have no idea how long you can determine how legitimate a system can be? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rushian Posted December 2, 2008 Author Share Posted December 2, 2008 Re: Statistical Football Prediction Model 2008 Really, you think so? Im thinking with now a season and a half tracked its up 9.2 units at a 1 unit stake. Even if you end up level in the last half of the season, at least this season wouldnt go down as a dud and give a reasonable return. Last seasons unit profit is pretty good. Saying this, how exactly did your work your backtesting? Was it over the whole 07/08 season? Im new to all this tbh and have no idea how long you can determine how legitimate a system can be? Yes, backtesting was done on the same leagues (i.e. Premiership, Championship, League One and Two - E0, E1, E2 and E3) over the whole 2007/08 season. However, although there are a lot of picks, the standard error of this year's mean yield (i.e. a measure of the variability of the average "value" of these bets) is still quite high (7.2%). An average yield of 6.1% with a standard error of 7.2% can result with a reasonable probability, in the long run, in overall loss. [More on this, and on chi-squared robustness tests can be found in the thread here.] That's why I am thinking that more bets are needed. Just a point to note here: the standard error of the mean yield was estimated using only this year's picks, as I updated the strength of the teams at the beginning of the year. So, even though aggregating the results should not make a difference if the underlying value of the picks is still there, I thought that doing so would not be correct since I would be putting together picks from two "theoretically" different systems. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rushian Posted December 2, 2008 Author Share Posted December 2, 2008 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rushian Posted December 5, 2008 Author Share Posted December 5, 2008 Re: Statistical Football Prediction Model 2008 Quickly approaching the 500-bet mark... here are this weekend's system picks: No Div Date Home Team Away Team Bet Stake Bet Odds Bookmaker W/L/P Profit/Loss 465 E0 6/12/2008 Arsenal Wigan H 10 1.35 Gamebookers P 0.00 466 E0 6/12/2008 Bolton Chelsea A 10 1.62 Ladbrokes P 0.00 467 E0 6/12/2008 Fulham Man City H 10 2.65 VC Bet P 0.00 468 E0 6/12/2008 Man United Sunderland H 10 1.20 Interwetten P 0.00 469 E0 6/12/2008 Newcastle Stoke H 10 1.83 Blue Square P 0.00 470 E1 6/12/2008 Bristol City Swansea H 10 2.38 Bet365 P 0.00 471 E1 6/12/2008 Cardiff Preston A 10 3.50 William Hill P 0.00 472 E1 6/12/2008 Derby Crystal Palace A 10 3.00 Bet365 P 0.00 473 E1 6/12/2008 Doncaster Plymouth H 10 2.60 Ladbrokes P 0.00 474 E1 6/12/2008 QPR Wolves H 10 3.00 Bet365 P 0.00 475 E1 6/12/2008 Sheffield United Burnley H 10 2.10 Stan James P 0.00 476 E2 6/12/2008 Hartlepool Yeovil A 10 5.00 Bet365 P 0.00 477 E2 6/12/2008 Huddersfield Walsall H 10 2.10 Interwetten P 0.00 478 E2 6/12/2008 Millwall Bristol Rvs D 10 3.50 Bet365 P 0.00 479 E2 6/12/2008 Northampton Leyton Orient H 10 2.25 Bet365 P 0.00 480 E2 6/12/2008 Stockport Peterboro A 10 2.80 Ladbrokes P 0.00 481 E2 6/12/2008 Swindon Carlisle A 10 3.10 Bet365 P 0.00 482 E3 6/12/2008 Accrington Brentford A 10 2.40 Bet365 P 0.00 483 E3 6/12/2008 Aldershot Wycombe A 10 2.62 Blue Square P 0.00 484 E3 6/12/2008 Bournemouth Chester H 10 2.00 Blue Square P 0.00 485 E3 6/12/2008 Bradford Dag and Red H 10 1.91 Bet365 P 0.00 486 E3 6/12/2008 Darlington Rochdale A 10 3.50 Blue Square P 0.00 487 E3 6/12/2008 Gillingham Chesterfield A 10 3.60 Ladbrokes P 0.00 488 E3 6/12/2008 Macclesfield Bury H 10 2.88 Bet365 P 0.00 489 E3 6/12/2008 Notts County Morecambe A 10 3.40 Ladbrokes P 0.00 490 E3 6/12/2008 Port Vale Grimsby H 10 2.00 Bet365 P 0.00 491 E0 7/12/2008 West Brom Portsmouth H 10 2.80 Blue Square P 0.00 492 E1 7/12/2008 Norwich Ipswich A 10 2.75 Ladbrokes P 0.00 493 E0 8/12/2008 West Ham Tottenham A 10 2.75 Stan James P 0.00 Fingers crossed for a profitable weekend :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rushian Posted December 6, 2008 Author Share Posted December 6, 2008 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rushian Posted December 7, 2008 Author Share Posted December 7, 2008 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rushian Posted December 8, 2008 Author Share Posted December 8, 2008 Re: Statistical Football Prediction Model 2008 The football-data website has not yet been updated with the midweek Championship odds but from a quick look (Bet365 had them at 4.50 some point today), Southampton will also qualify for tonight. So consider this another system pick, with odds being the best available once the website is updated. I will be back later this evening and update the thread with the midweek selections, assuming the website is updated! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rushian Posted December 8, 2008 Author Share Posted December 8, 2008 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rushian Posted December 9, 2008 Author Share Posted December 9, 2008 Re: Statistical Football Prediction Model 2008 Seven more picks for Tuesday/Wednesday bringing the total to 499 selections: No Div Date Home Team Away Team Bet Stake Bet Odds Bookmaker W/L/P Profit/Loss 493 E1 9/12/2008 Nott'm Forest Sheffield United H 10 2.80 Bet365 P 0.00 494 E1 9/12/2008 Plymouth Birmingham D 10 3.30 Bet365 P 0.00 495 E1 9/12/2008 Preston Doncaster A 10 5.00 Bet365 P 0.00 496 E1 9/12/2008 Reading Blackpool H 10 1.50 Bet365 P 0.00 497 E1 9/12/2008 Swansea Barnsley A 10 5.00 Stan James P 0.00 498 E1 10/12/2008 Ipswich Bristol City H 10 1.91 Ladbrokes P 0.00 499 E1 10/12/2008 Watford Norwich H 10 2.25 Stan James P 0.00 Fingers crossed for a positive midweek batch of selections :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rushian Posted December 9, 2008 Author Share Posted December 9, 2008 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rushian Posted December 10, 2008 Author Share Posted December 10, 2008 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rushian Posted December 12, 2008 Author Share Posted December 12, 2008 Re: Statistical Football Prediction Model 2008 Football-data once again are yet to be updated, so tonight's picks are in provisional form: Chesterfield is a definite pick according to the system at the best available odds. Brighton is a pick assuming that the best odds for a Home Win are not higher than 2.91. I'll be back, once football-data is up to date. Fingers crossed :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rushian Posted December 12, 2008 Author Share Posted December 12, 2008 Re: Statistical Football Prediction Model 2008 According to the website, Brighton was in fact available at 3.00 which made it a non-qualifying match according to the system as stated in my previous post. However Chesterfield was a system pick and is included below with the rest of the weekend's picks: No Div Date Home Team Away Team Bet Stake Bet Odds Bookmaker W/L/P Profit/Loss 500 E3 12/12/2008 Chesterfield Macclesfield H 10 1.91 Blue Square L -10.00 501 E0 13/12/2008 Liverpool Hull H 10 1.36 Gamebookers P 0.00 502 E0 13/12/2008 Middlesbrough Arsenal A 10 1.80 Bet365 P 0.00 503 E0 13/12/2008 Stoke Fulham A 10 3.00 Blue Square P 0.00 504 E0 13/12/2008 Sunderland West Brom A 10 3.80 Bet365 P 0.00 505 E0 13/12/2008 Tottenham Man United A 10 1.85 Gamebookers P 0.00 506 E1 13/12/2008 Crystal Palace Doncaster A 10 6.00 Blue Square P 0.00 507 E1 13/12/2008 Ipswich Cardiff H 10 2.25 Bwin P 0.00 508 E1 13/12/2008 Nott'm Forest Blackpool H 10 2.38 Stan James P 0.00 509 E1 13/12/2008 Plymouth QPR H 10 2.50 Bet365 P 0.00 510 E1 13/12/2008 Preston Birmingham H 10 2.88 Ladbrokes P 0.00 511 E1 13/12/2008 Reading Norwich H 10 1.50 Bet365 P 0.00 512 E1 13/12/2008 Sheffield Weds Bristol City H 10 2.25 Stan James P 0.00 513 E1 13/12/2008 Swansea Sheffield United A 10 3.00 Bet365 P 0.00 514 E1 13/12/2008 Watford Coventry H 10 2.25 Ladbrokes P 0.00 515 E2 13/12/2008 Bristol Rvs Tranmere A 10 2.88 Bet365 P 0.00 516 E2 13/12/2008 Hereford Hartlepool D 10 3.40 Ladbrokes P 0.00 517 E2 13/12/2008 Leyton Orient Cheltenham A 10 4.20 Blue Square P 0.00 518 E2 13/12/2008 Southend Huddersfield H 10 2.25 Blue Square P 0.00 519 E2 13/12/2008 Walsall Millwall H 10 2.70 Blue Square P 0.00 520 E3 13/12/2008 Barnet Gillingham H 10 3.10 Bet365 P 0.00 521 E3 13/12/2008 Brentford Bradford H 10 2.38 Ladbrokes P 0.00 522 E3 13/12/2008 Chester Notts County H 10 2.50 Blue Square P 0.00 523 E3 13/12/2008 Dag and Red Exeter H 10 2.20 Ladbrokes P 0.00 524 E3 13/12/2008 Morecambe Darlington H 10 3.00 Ladbrokes P 0.00 525 E0 14/12/2008 Chelsea West Ham H 10 1.25 Bet365 P 0.00 526 E0 14/12/2008 Portsmouth Newcastle H 10 2.10 Gamebookers P 0.00 Another 26 picks to go... Fingers crossed :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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