Statistical Football Prediction Model 2008

[Rushian]

Re: Statistical Football Prediction Model 2008

uhm interesting... "value betting" ok , but if u strike a 3.50 , and loose 3 bets , you just killed the profit . Maybe you should bet more on draws , cause AWs are sometimes rare . In Conference you get 30% away wins in a season , yes , but that doesnt mean stronger teams get the away wins ^^ . Oh and Chelsea vs Tottenham @1.40 isn`t value betting ... I wish you GL , keep it up , my sugestion is to chase more draws , cause your AW`s bets cause major damage to your winnings . You can actually increase your strike rate and the profit if you quit "random" betting and stick to the strong , "winning" picks . I dont know your sistem and your variables , but something is wrong when it comes to AW`s . Maybe go +10 on HW/DR . Here`s an example . I have my own betting/pred sistem , but i like to play only the strong winning hands . This is "value betting" in my opinion . I picked just one AW in 3 rnds , and still my profit is going sky high . This is just one league , only one example . I have a good strike rate cause i`m not betting "random" and hope i hit high odds. Loosing picks kill the profit anyway . You made 70 profit , but you made @ 90 bets . IF u bet HW/DR u can get more profit ... Oh and one more thing . Why do you people bet 10 , and dont try to increase stakes on safer bets . stake 15 for 1.40 maybe ?and 6 for a 3.10 ( for example ) . it will increase your winnings if you try to chase a constant 2xstake / winning . Boring theory ? yea maybe ... works for me btw.

werez, thank you for the contribution :) It's true that currently the Away Win picks have been underperforming and hopefully things will improve in the future. I am keeping an eye on stats on HW/D/AW and I will put them up as soon as I have more data on the three categories. To give you some background of the system, it tries to calculate the probability of a Home Win, a Draw or an Away Win in a given match based on some predictors. Based on these estimates, a "value" bet would be classified as such, if the estimated probability is higher than the best quoted odds from the bookmakers. So for example, the Chelsea - Tottenham match was classified as a "value" Home Win because it was available at 1.40 while the estimated probability of a Home win accorning to the model was 73.3% (i.e. fair odds of 1/73.3% = 1.36). For example, looking at the picture that you put up, I would not classify as a value Home Win the match Histon - Altrincham at odds of 1.72 when the estimated probability of the model was at 51% (meaning that only odds above 1/51% = 1.96 would be bet on). But then again, you seem to have an amazing yield and strike rate so who am I to judge :clap I agree with you when you say that the stakes should be increased when there is more belief in the correctness of the pick but for now, as this is only a paper trail, I plan to continue on level stakes and see where this takes me. I guess, if the system manages to end on profit, then by working a bit more on the stakes, the results would be even better :ok Again, thank you for your comments.

[werez]

Re: Statistical Football Prediction Model 2008 Yes i got the point . Well , what can i say , keep it up ! :ok

[Rushian]

Re: Statistical Football Prediction Model 2008 Weekend is here, and although there are no Premiership and Championship matches, here are the model picks for League 1 and 2. It will be a test as the system has not been performing as well in these Leagues.

No	Div	Date	Home Team	Away Team	Bet	Stake	Bet Odds	Bookmaker	W/L/P	Profit/Loss
109	E2	5/9/2008	Hereford	Swindon	H	10	2.60	Ladbrokes	P	0.00
110	E2	6/9/2008	Cheltenham	Huddersfield	A	10	2.62	Bet365	P	0.00
111	E2	6/9/2008	Milton Keynes Dons	Yeovil	A	10	4.50	Bet365	P	0.00
112	E2	6/9/2008	Peterboro	Bristol Rvs	H	10	2.10	Interwetten	P	0.00
113	E2	6/9/2008	Walsall	Leyton Orient	H	10	2.00	Ladbrokes	P	0.00
114	E3	6/9/2008	Brentford	Dag and Red	H	10	2.10	Bet365	P	0.00
115	E3	6/9/2008	Gillingham	Grimsby	A	10	4.75	Bet365	P	0.00
116	E3	6/9/2008	Lincoln	Barnet	H	10	1.91	Bet365	P	0.00
117	E3	6/9/2008	Macclesfield	Luton	A	10	2.20	Bwin	P	0.00
118	E3	6/9/2008	Port Vale	Bradford	H	10	2.60	Ladbrokes	P	0.00
119	E3	6/9/2008	Rochdale	Wycombe	H	10	2.37	Ladbrokes	P	0.00

First match is on in a while! Fingers crossed :hope

[Rushian]

[Rushian]

[aliando]

Re: Statistical Football Prediction Model 2008 if you can keep you're draws yield that high, we will call you god and be your permanent followers!! :lol

[Rushian]

Re: Statistical Football Prediction Model 2008

if you can keep you're draws yield that high' date=' we will call you god and be your permanent followers!! :lol[/quote'] :rollin ... I seriously doubt that it can remain even positive let alone at the current level! But if it does, the bookies will probably hire a hitman first :eek

[Rushian]

Re: Statistical Football Prediction Model 2008 The numbers are in, and the picks are out... Here is the next batch of selections with prices from football-data:

No	Div	Date	Home Team	Away Team	Bet	Stake	Bet Odds	Bookmaker	W/L/P	Profit/Loss
120	E0	13/9/2008	Blackburn	Arsenal	H	10	4.80	VC Bet	P	0.00
121	E0	13/9/2008	Fulham	Bolton	A	10	3.40	Stan James	P	0.00
122	E0	13/9/2008	Liverpool	Man United	H	10	3.10	VC Bet	P	0.00
123	E0	13/9/2008	Man City	Chelsea	A	10	1.95	Gamebookers	P	0.00
124	E0	13/9/2008	Newcastle	Hull	A	10	6.00	VC Bet	P	0.00
125	E0	13/9/2008	West Brom	West Ham	H	10	2.50	VC Bet	P	0.00
126	E0	13/9/2008	Wigan	Sunderland	H	10	2.10	Interwetten	P	0.00
127	E1	13/9/2008	Blackpool	Barnsley	H	10	2.20	Ladbrokes	P	0.00
128	E1	13/9/2008	Cardiff	Bristol City	H	10	2.20	Ladbrokes	P	0.00
129	E1	13/9/2008	Charlton	Wolves	H	10	2.62	Ladbrokes	P	0.00
130	E1	13/9/2008	Coventry	Preston	A	10	3.00	Bet365	P	0.00
131	E1	13/9/2008	Crystal Palace	Swansea	H	10	2.20	Bet365	P	0.00
132	E1	13/9/2008	Derby	Sheffield United	A	10	2.55	VC Bet	P	0.00
133	E1	13/9/2008	Ipswich	Reading	A	10	2.80	Ladbrokes	P	0.00
134	E1	13/9/2008	Nott'm Forest	Burnley	D	10	3.40	Bet365	P	0.00
135	E1	13/9/2008	Plymouth	Norwich	H	10	2.38	Bet365	P	0.00
136	E2	13/9/2008	Crewe	Colchester	A	10	2.62	Ladbrokes	P	0.00
137	E2	13/9/2008	Leyton Orient	Stockport	H	10	2.10	VC Bet	P	0.00
138	E2	13/9/2008	Northampton	Peterboro	H	10	2.50	Bet365	P	0.00
139	E2	13/9/2008	Oldham	Milton Keynes Dons	A	10	4.20	Bet365	P	0.00
140	E2	13/9/2008	Yeovil	Brighton	H	10	2.70	Bet365	P	0.00
141	E3	13/9/2008	Accrington	Notts County	H	10	2.40	Bet365	P	0.00
142	E3	13/9/2008	Barnet	Morecambe	H	10	2.50	Bet365	P	0.00
143	E3	13/9/2008	Bournemouth	Macclesfield	H	10	1.83	Blue Square	P	0.00
144	E3	13/9/2008	Grimsby	Chester	A	10	4.00	Blue Square	P	0.00
145	E3	13/9/2008	Shrewsbury	Gillingham	A	10	4.00	Ladbrokes	P	0.00
146	E3	13/9/2008	Wycombe	Brentford	A	10	4.00	Sportingbet	P	0.00
147	E0	14/9/2008	Stoke	Everton	D	10	3.40	Bet365	P	0.00
148	E0	15/9/2008	Tottenham	Aston Villa	A	10	3.75	Sportingbet	P	0.00

Fingers crossed :hope

[Rushian]

[Rushian]

[Rushian]

[Rushian]

Re: Statistical Football Prediction Model 2008 Some picks for tonight ... quite a few longshots which coule prove useful if any of them actually come in :hope

No	Div	Date	Home Team	Away Team	Bet	Stake	Bet Odds	Bookmaker	W/L/P	Profit/Loss
149	E1	16/9/2008	Bristol City	Birmingham	A	10	2.60	Stan James	P	0.00
150	E1	16/9/2008	Burnley	Blackpool	H	10	2.05	William Hill	P	0.00
151	E1	16/9/2008	Preston	Nott'm Forest	A	10	4.75	Blue Square	P	0.00
152	E1	16/9/2008	Reading	Sheffield Weds	H	10	1.75	Interwetten	P	0.00
153	E1	16/9/2008	Sheffield United	Coventry	A	10	5.00	Bet365	P	0.00
154	E1	16/9/2008	Swansea	Derby	A	10	3.75	Bet365	P	0.00
155	E1	16/9/2008	Watford	Plymouth	A	10	5.00	Bet365	P	0.00
156	E2	16/9/2008	Cheltenham	Bristol Rvs	H	10	2.88	Ladbrokes	P	0.00

An update will follow tonight :D

[Rushian]

[Rushian]

Re: Statistical Football Prediction Model 2008 New set of predictions ... Let's see if the system can keep on the right side of the 0% yield line :hope

No	Div	Date	Home Team	Away Team	Bet	Stake	Bet Odds	Bookmaker	W/L/P	Profit/Loss
157	E0	20/9/2008	Blackburn	Fulham	H	10	2.10	Bet365	P	0.00
158	E0	20/9/2008	Liverpool	Stoke	D	10	6.50	Bet365	P	0.00
159	E0	20/9/2008	Sunderland	Middlesbrough	A	10	3.35	VC Bet	P	0.00
160	E0	20/9/2008	West Ham	Newcastle	A	10	3.80	William Hill	P	0.00
161	E1	20/9/2008	Birmingham	Blackpool	A	10	9.00	Bet365	P	0.00
162	E1	20/9/2008	Derby	Cardiff	A	10	3.20	Bet365	P	0.00
163	E1	20/9/2008	Norwich	Sheffield United	A	10	2.90	Bet365	P	0.00
164	E1	20/9/2008	Nott'm Forest	Charlton	D	10	3.40	Ladbrokes	P	0.00
165	E1	20/9/2008	Preston	Wolves	H	10	2.62	Bet365	P	0.00
166	E1	20/9/2008	Sheffield Weds	Ipswich	H	10	2.50	Bet365	P	0.00
167	E1	20/9/2008	Watford	Reading	A	10	2.60	Bwin	P	0.00
168	E2	20/9/2008	Crewe	Southend	H	10	2.62	Bet365	P	0.00
169	E2	20/9/2008	Hartlepool	Oldham	H	10	2.63	Gamebookers	P	0.00
170	E2	20/9/2008	Hereford	Scunthorpe	H	10	3.00	Ladbrokes	P	0.00
171	E2	20/9/2008	Huddersfield	Northampton	A	10	3.75	Bet365	P	0.00
172	E2	20/9/2008	Yeovil	Bristol Rvs	H	10	2.40	Ladbrokes	P	0.00
173	E3	20/9/2008	Darlington	Accrington	H	10	1.70	Bwin	P	0.00
174	E3	20/9/2008	Morecambe	Grimsby	A	10	3.75	Bet365	P	0.00
175	E3	20/9/2008	Port Vale	Macclesfield	H	10	1.91	Blue Square	P	0.00
176	E3	20/9/2008	Rochdale	Chesterfield	A	10	3.40	Ladbrokes	P	0.00
177	E3	20/9/2008	Rotherham	Luton	A	10	3.20	Ladbrokes	P	0.00
178	E3	20/9/2008	Wycombe	Dag and Red	H	10	2.00	Bet365	P	0.00
179	E0	21/9/2008	Chelsea	Man United	H	10	2.25	Ladbrokes	P	0.00
180	E0	21/9/2008	Man City	Portsmouth	A	10	4.00	Bet365	P	0.00
181	E0	21/9/2008	Tottenham	Wigan	H	10	1.75	Gamebookers	P	0.00
182	E0	21/9/2008	West Brom	Aston Villa	H	10	3.30	Ladbrokes	P	0.00

Off to the pub :beer

[Rushian]

[Rushian]

[Rushian]

Re: Statistical Football Prediction Model 2008 Right, the football-data website is currently not updated with the latest odds, and I may not be in front of my screen when it is before tonight's set of matches. Having looked at the predicted probabilities and having had a quick scan of the odds the ttwo games could result in the following picks: If the maximum available odds for Southend is at most 1.871 accoring to the football-data files, then Southend qualifies as a pick. Other wise it's a no bet. For the Tranmere - Colchester match the situation is a bit more complicated. According to the system, there could be value for the Draw and/or the Away win but I am not sure where exacty. I am therefore putting the cuttoffs with some justification: for the Draw if the maximum available odds are between 3.462 and 4.154 whereas for the away win if the maximum available odds are between 3.205 and 3.846 then according to the system there is value. There will be at most one bet for this match (i.e. either Draw or Away Win or No bet) according to where is the most value based on the system. There! I've put it all down, so that if a pick qualifies and I can't update in time, no one will accuse of aftereventing in the unlikely case it actually comes true!!! :rollin A full list will follow when football-data is updated! Off to get some beer :beer

[Rushian]

[Rushian]

[Rushian]

[Rushian]

Re: Statistical Football Prediction Model 2008 Let's see if there is a change in fortunes :hope

No	Div	Date	Home Team	Away Team	Bet	Stake	Bet Odds	Bookmaker	W/L/P	Profit/Loss
209	E1	30/9/2008	Bristol City	Plymouth	A	10	4.50	Stan James	P	0.00
210	E1	30/9/2008	Cardiff	Coventry	H	10	2.00	Bet365	P	0.00
211	E1	30/9/2008	Crystal Palace	Charlton	H	10	2.38	Stan James	P	0.00
212	E1	30/9/2008	Doncaster	Sheffield United	A	10	2.60	Bet365	P	0.00
213	E1	30/9/2008	Ipswich	Barnsley	H	10	1.67	Bet365	P	0.00
214	E1	30/9/2008	Preston	Swansea	A	10	4.50	Stan James	P	0.00
215	E1	30/9/2008	Southampton	Norwich	H	10	2.50	Bet365	P	0.00
216	E2	30/9/2008	Colchester	Leicester	H	10	3.00	Bet365	P	0.00

Back tomorrow with an update!

[Rushian]

[Rushian]

Re: Statistical Football Prediction Model 2008 The rollercoaster is ready for yet another ride... Let's see where it takew us :hope

No	Div	Date	Home Team	Away Team	Bet	Stake	Bet Odds	Bookmaker	W/L/P	Profit/Loss
217	E2	3/10/2008	Stockport	Oldham	A	10	2.50	Ladbrokes	P	0.00
218	E0	4/10/2008	Sunderland	Arsenal	A	10	1.65	Interwetten	P	0.00
219	E0	4/10/2008	West Brom	Fulham	A	10	3.40	VC Bet	P	0.00
220	E0	4/10/2008	Wigan	Middlesbrough	A	10	3.80	VC Bet	P	0.00
221	E1	4/10/2008	Norwich	Derby	H	10	2.40	Ladbrokes	P	0.00
222	E1	4/10/2008	Nott'm Forest	Crystal Palace	D	10	3.40	Bet365	P	0.00
223	E1	4/10/2008	Plymouth	Sheffield Weds	A	10	3.60	Ladbrokes	P	0.00
224	E1	4/10/2008	Reading	Burnley	H	10	1.70	Interwetten	P	0.00
225	E1	4/10/2008	Sheffield United	Bristol City	H	10	2.00	Interwetten	P	0.00
226	E1	4/10/2008	Swansea	Wolves	H	10	2.90	Bwin	P	0.00
227	E1	4/10/2008	Watford	Preston	D	10	3.40	Bet365	P	0.00
228	E2	4/10/2008	Brighton	Cheltenham	A	10	5.00	Bet365	P	0.00
229	E2	4/10/2008	Carlisle	Tranmere	A	10	4.33	Ladbrokes	P	0.00
230	E2	4/10/2008	Colchester	Bristol Rvs	H	10	2.00	Bet365	P	0.00
231	E2	4/10/2008	Crewe	Northampton	A	10	3.25	Blue Square	P	0.00
232	E2	4/10/2008	Huddersfield	Leicester	H	10	3.20	Bet365	P	0.00
233	E2	4/10/2008	Leyton Orient	Scunthorpe	H	10	3.20	Bet365	P	0.00
234	E2	4/10/2008	Millwall	Milton Keynes Dons	H	10	2.20	Blue Square	P	0.00
235	E2	4/10/2008	Peterboro	Leeds	A	10	2.60	Ladbrokes	P	0.00
236	E3	4/10/2008	Barnet	Accrington	A	10	4.33	Bet365	P	0.00
237	E3	4/10/2008	Chester	Lincoln	A	10	2.80	Interwetten	P	0.00
238	E3	4/10/2008	Darlington	Shrewsbury	H	10	2.38	Ladbrokes	P	0.00
239	E3	4/10/2008	Port Vale	Notts County	H	10	2.00	Bwin	P	0.00
240	E3	4/10/2008	Rochdale	Dag and Red	A	10	5.50	Bet365	P	0.00
241	E3	4/10/2008	Rotherham	Grimsby	A	10	4.50	Blue Square	P	0.00
242	E0	5/10/2008	Portsmouth	Stoke	H	10	1.75	Blue Square	P	0.00

[Rushian]

Re: Statistical Football Prediction Model 2008 Please discard the previous message. I've just noticed that there is a mistake in the football-data spreadsheets as it has the Peterboro - Leeds match taking place on the 6th... As a result the odds don't match up in my spreadsheets. The correct set of picks are:

No	Div	Date	Home Team	Away Team	Bet	Stake	Bet Odds	Bookmaker	W/L/P	Profit/Loss
217	E2	3/10/2008	Stockport	Oldham	A	10	2.50	Ladbrokes	P	0.00
218	E0	4/10/2008	Sunderland	Arsenal	A	10	1.65	Interwetten	P	0.00
219	E0	4/10/2008	West Brom	Fulham	A	10	3.40	VC Bet	P	0.00
220	E0	4/10/2008	Wigan	Middlesbrough	A	10	3.80	VC Bet	P	0.00
221	E1	4/10/2008	Norwich	Derby	H	10	2.40	Ladbrokes	P	0.00
222	E1	4/10/2008	Nott'm Forest	Crystal Palace	D	10	3.40	Bet365	P	0.00
223	E1	4/10/2008	Plymouth	Sheffield Weds	A	10	3.60	Ladbrokes	P	0.00
224	E1	4/10/2008	Reading	Burnley	H	10	1.70	Interwetten	P	0.00
225	E1	4/10/2008	Sheffield United	Bristol City	H	10	2.00	Interwetten	P	0.00
226	E1	4/10/2008	Swansea	Wolves	H	10	2.90	Bwin	P	0.00
227	E1	4/10/2008	Watford	Preston	D	10	3.40	Bet365	P	0.00
228	E2	4/10/2008	Brighton	Cheltenham	A	10	5.00	Bet365	P	0.00
229	E2	4/10/2008	Carlisle	Tranmere	A	10	4.33	Ladbrokes	P	0.00
230	E2	4/10/2008	Colchester	Bristol Rvs	H	10	2.00	Bet365	P	0.00
231	E2	4/10/2008	Crewe	Northampton	A	10	3.25	Blue Square	P	0.00
232	E2	4/10/2008	Huddersfield	Leicester	H	10	3.20	Bet365	P	0.00
233	E2	4/10/2008	Leyton Orient	Scunthorpe	H	10	3.20	Bet365	P	0.00
234	E2	4/10/2008	Millwall	Milton Keynes Dons	H	10	2.20	Blue Square	P	0.00
235	E2	4/10/2008	Peterboro	Leeds	A	10	2.40	Bwin	P	0.00
236	E2	4/10/2008	Yeovil	Southend	H	10	2.80	Bet365	P	0.00
237	E3	4/10/2008	Barnet	Accrington	H	10	2.25	Ladbrokes	P	0.00
238	E3	4/10/2008	Chester	Lincoln	A	10	3.20	Bet365	P	0.00
239	E3	4/10/2008	Darlington	Shrewsbury	H	10	2.60	Bet365	P	0.00
240	E3	4/10/2008	Morecambe	Chesterfield	A	10	3.00	Bet365	P	0.00
241	E3	4/10/2008	Rochdale	Dag and Red	H	10	2.00	Bwin	P	0.00
242	E0	5/10/2008	Chelsea	Aston Villa	H	10	1.53	Gamebookers	P	0.00
243	E0	5/10/2008	Everton	Newcastle	H	10	1.80	Ladbrokes	P	0.00
244	E0	5/10/2008	Man City	Liverpool	A	10	2.30	Interwetten	P	0.00
245	E0	5/10/2008	Portsmouth	Stoke	H	10	1.72	Gamebookers	P	0.00

Fingers crossed again :hope

[Rushian]

[Rushian]

[Rushian]

Re: Statistical Football Prediction Model 2008 The prices are in, and the system's selections are out. Four picks from League One and another four from League Two... Fingers crossed :hope

No	Div	Date	Home Team	Away Team	Bet	Stake	Bet Odds	Bookmaker	W/L/P	Profit/Loss
246	E2	10/10/2008	Northampton	Hartlepool	H	10	2.25	William Hill	P	0.00
247	E2	11/10/2008	Bristol Rvs	Leyton Orient	A	10	3.75	Bet365	P	0.00
248	E2	11/10/2008	Tranmere	Millwall	D	10	3.30	Ladbrokes	P	0.00
249	E2	11/10/2008	Walsall	Peterboro	H	10	2.40	Bwin	P	0.00
250	E3	11/10/2008	Accrington	Bradford	H	10	3.50	Blue Square	P	0.00
251	E3	11/10/2008	Chesterfield	Chester	H	10	1.85	Sportingbet	P	0.00
252	E3	11/10/2008	Gillingham	Morecambe	H	10	1.91	Ladbrokes	P	0.00
253	E3	12/10/2008	Notts County	Brentford	A	10	2.75	Bet365	P	0.00

[Rushian]

[Rushian]

[Samba_SamPa]

Re: Statistical Football Prediction Model 2008 Unlucky there Rushian, I was cheering Bradford on though :$ had them in my glory hunt. Had Rochdale last night, they conceded equaliser late on :( It all evens up over the season :ok (hopefully! don't quote me on that ;) )