Predicting which way the pendulum will swing longterm

[happygooner]

Can anybody recommend any good literature on learning to read the betfair charts? I know this is possible from reading through maria's ever so looooong thread (all 190 odd pages!) where she likened it to traders who deal on the stock exchange all day. Weight of money has been given as an indicator but this only seems to matter in the short term as it fluctuates back and forth like a yoyo! The minute I lay to a price which is drifting it gets backed in to half that mere minutes before the start of the race:@ I would say around 20-25% of the time I get a better price which drifts and the rest ranges from only just over to grossly so!! The most irritating thing being that these are the horses which have the audacity to win....thus making things particularly difficult:wall Selection criteria is easy so I find but this pricing business is trickier than a rubix cube:\

[Gingertipster]

Re: Predicting which way the pendulum will swing longterm If you learn the table of odds and chances Gooner, you should be able to find the value. ie, a horse at a higher price than it should be, therefore one likely to shorten. Knowing each price as a percentage helps tremendously in profit making. Take a look at my 2000 Guineas write up in my Gingers Winners thread, it shows the prices (worked out to 100%) that I will be trying to beat. Every horse has a price I will back it at. With the Betfair prices divide 1 by each price to find the percentage (of that price) you need to win to make a profit. e.g. 4.00 is 1 divided by 4 = 0.25 = 25% To break even a punter needs to win 25% of his bets at 4.00 (3/1). Therefore he should only back a horse he believes has a 25% of winning if he can get a better price than 4.00 (3/1). Though you also have to take in to account the 5% (or whatever) commission. At the end of the year a good judge will be in profit a bad judge will lose. Any questions please ask. Ginge