stats for the three day national meeting

[welshman443]

thought it would be a good idea if we had a thread for aintree just like we did for cheltenham- it would be intresting to see what other peoples thoughts and selections are --day ones stats to follow-in the meantime feel free to contribute your thoughts

[welshman443]

Re: stats for the three day national meeting Stats Guide 14:35 Aintree, 3 Apr 2008 3m 1f totesport Bowl Chase (Grade 2) (Class 1) Winner £96,297 2007 Winner: Exotic Dancer Trainer: Jonjo O'Neill Jockey: Tony McCoy Age: 7; Weight: 11st 12lb Starting Price: 6/4f Season Form Figures: 211212 Best Previous Run: 2nd - Cheltenham Gold Cup Chase (Grade 1), Cheltenham Given that seven of the last ten winners carried the maximum penalty, we can safely deduce that class counts for more than a few pounds here or there in this race. That record is even more impressive when we take on board that includes the 1999 contest in which they had no chance being totally unrepresented. During the last decade, horses carrying the maximum penalty have won 70% of renewals from 41% of the total runners so they are overperforming in a significant way. No prizes for working out that the Gold Cup has thrown up most winners (18 of the 24 winners ran in the blue riband) but it is more often than not the case this race goes the way of a horse that did not have as hard a race as the principals ensuring they arrive here fresher. Nine of the last 15 runnings went the way of the second or third favourite (the favourite is regularly the horse that finishes highest in the Gold Cup) which tends to support that view. Just two winners bypassed Cheltenham altogether and the Irish have only won three times, one of which was the inaugural running back in 1984. If Kauto Star were to line up here he might well be joined by Kempton second and third Our Vic and Exotic Dancer and we should respect them greatly as six of the last 11 Totesport Bowl winners finished in the first three in the King George. It's not difficult to see why leading King George protagonists should fare well as both races are run on flat tracks with few runners with the Aintree event being just a furlong longer in distance where clean, fast jumping is a pre-requisite. Given that two of the last three winners of the Cotswold Chase have gone on to land this Grade 2 affair following a run in the Gold Cup in between, Knowhere would also be interesting if allowed to take his chance here rather than the Grand National off 11st 8lbs. Front runners have enjoyed plenty of successful down the years with nine of the 24 winners either cutting out every yard of the running or leading from a very early stage. The small fields, of course, make it far easier for front runners to dominate proceedings but a better than one-in-three strike rate is some going considering just one horse can lead. At a glance summary: Positives: Carrying the maximum penalty Ran in the Gold Cup Won or placed in the King George VI Chase Front runners The second and third favourites Negatives: Bypassed the Cheltenham Festival The Irish