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Cheltenham Friday 14th March


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Re: Cheltenham Friday 14th March 1.05 - Razor Royale @ 28/1 - E/W 124236.gif Has been disappointing lately after showing so much promise, but won here in the autumn. Probably was going to win again in the next race, but made a bad blunder at the last and landed on four feet. Never recovered after the mistake and finished 4th. Faded up the hill in last appearance, but won impressively against Nenuphar Collonges in 2m5f event on soft ground and I am sure horse stays. Overpriced at 28/1 and can surprise a few here. On evidence of last run he was carrying 3lbs more than Aigle D'Or and was beat by 4 and a half lengths. Off level weights they might reverse placings and I rate Aigle D'Or as the best prospect for this race.

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Re: Cheltenham Friday 14th March 12.30 – Struggling with this one and only tentatively going for Threatre Girl, only because I like King/Thornton. 1.05 – Group Captain – bet carried over from Wed. 1.40 – Astarador and Superior Wisdom – bets carried over from Wed. 2.15 Franchoek – the last ten winners of this all won their previous start and 14 of the last 15 started 1st or 2nd fav in their last race. ( of the last 14 winners were in the first four of the betting. Only 2 of 31 Irish horses have made the frame in the last 5 years. 2.50 – The Tother One – quite a few good ones in this but the tother one has an unbeaten record from 5 starts and his latest victory included beating Ballyfitz who was a big priced winner at the festival on Thursday. 3.30 – the trend patterns are conflicting so I think I’ll probably sit on the fence for this one. Since 1987 only two winners finished out of the frame on their last start and all but one of those had a prep race over 3 miles or more (would exclude Kauto Star but include Denman). However, the last three winners of the King George have all won in the Gold Cup, suggesting Kauto will win!! 13 of the last 14 winners were aged between seven and nine and nine of the last ten winners were aged 7-9. Those horses with the highest ratings have also done well. 8 of the last 10 winners had all placed at the festival before (includes Kauto and Denman). Tempted by an each way chance on Halcon Genelardais though simply because Choc is on it. 4.05 – Agus A Vic – struggling for this one as well. Agus a Vic appears to have a good record with three wins from 5 starts in Ireland and in defeat was beaten only by a neck and 1.25 when he came second twice. Also beat Climate Control in an Irish race that is considered a good trial race for this apparently. 4.40 – Tramantano – 9 and 10 years olds done well in this type of race (handicap chase) and 87 % of this type of race won by horses carrying less than 11st. 77 % of winners had raced in the last fortnight. My Petra also fits the trends. 5.20 – Wingman - 10 out of last 10- winners were aged 6-9 and only 1 of the last ten winners had previously won at Cheltenham. Very very interestingly, 5 of the last 6 winners had run in the Totesport Trophy at newbury, a race won by Wingman on his last appearance. Big priced horses are regularly placed in this race. Horses carrying between 10st 7lb and 11st 7lb accounted for all but two of the victories in this type of race. Horses returning from a 29-60 day break also do well, so Wanango also fits the trends.

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Re: Cheltenham Friday 14th March 3.30 - Denman @ 2/1 123819.gif With ground more testing than expected and more rain to come I am more confident than ever for the monster Denman. Kauto has the speed, but Denman will be close to him and breathing his neck. Jumping under pressure is a slight concern for the champion. Not that he can't jump, but he will be pressured by Denman this time. 2/1 is a fair bit of value. Last but not least I think Denman has improved a bit more since his last run while Kauto has probably reached a peak already. Can't see anything else going anywhere near them.

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Re: Cheltenham Friday 14th March


IN ACCORD - UNP :eyes SILVERBURN - 4TH :( ran well , faded after 2nd last , good run VOY POR ESTEDES - 2ND @ 5/2F :\ no chance with winner MY WAY DE SOLZEN / WITCHITA LINEMAN - 5TH @ 15/2 / UNP :eyes Mwds looked like taking part in the places until before last. PATMIL DU CHARMIN / KELREV - UNP :eyes PDC gave a good account but well beaten BURNTOAKBOY - 3RD @ 12/1 :D Nice place CLONSKEAGH ROYALE - 2ND @ 7/1 :D Same as above. GOLD CUP DAY -------------- 1.05 - Only 1 winner since '82 didn't finish in first 2 LTO Only 2/22 were from outside the top 6 in the betting Only 1 winner aged 7+ since '74 6/10 were 6 y-olds Only 1 4y-old win since '91 9/1 ran in Graded class LTO FORPADDYDEPLASTERER :ok BREEDSBREEZE :ok 1.40 - 5/13 Irish trained 4/5 won LTO 7/12 ran no more than 3 times that season Only 1 from 10 carried more than 11:03 CLARNAZAR :ok 2.15 - 13/14 won LTO 13/14 won at least 2 hurdle races Only 1 winner rated under 80 on the flat since '96 6/10 in the top 4 in betting CELESTIAL HALO :ok 3.30 - Last 6 winners rated 166+ 13/14 aged 7-9 y old 8/10 won at a previous festival 7/10 were 1st or 2nd LTO 7/10 in the top 3 in the betting 6/10 ran in the King George KAUTO STAR :ok 4.40 - Only 4 winners aged 10+ have won since the War 28/32 returned at odds of 10/1 or under 8/10 in the first 3 LTO 8/10 CARRIED 10:11 or under MY PETRA :ok 5.20 - 4/5 ran in TOTESPORT TROPHY 36/45 won by 5 or 6 y-old No horse carried 11:08 or above since '60 16/19 placed 1st - 4th LTO 32/33 started at 16/1 or under WINGMAN :ok
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Re: Cheltenham Friday 14th March 1:40 CORAL CUP : LEG SPINNER Had several options for this festival so the tip must be followed. This 7yr old has had mixed hurdle and flat form. Rated 92 when winning at Newmarket back in Oct his hurdle rating of 132 seems competitive and he looks the one to beat for this very shrewd trainer. *Price : 11/2 2:15 JCB TRIUMPH HURDLE : FRANCHOEK Franchoek has dominated the ante post market and rightly so, with 4 hurdle wins from 6 starts he's hard to oppose. The only chink in his armour is his lack of turn of foot but when ridden more positivly he is hard to beat. AP has not ridden him before and he's an eye catching booking and will no doubt ride him like the way he is suppose to ride him, he will be hard to beat. *Price : 13/8 3:30 TOTESPORT CHELTENHAM GOLD CUP :KAUTO STAR Im sorry Im in the Kauto camp and the only danger to Kauto is Kauto himself, he beats the same old faces and the only danger to Kauto is boredom. What will come 3rd? HALCON GENELARDAIS won a decent handicap at Haydock before winning the Welsh National by 4L's to Mon Mome giving a stone in weight. Placed at Haydock on GS over 3mile he went one better LTo when getting 2nd by a hd to Miko De Beauchene at Chepstow over 3m5f. Alan Kings doing well at the moment and I can see HC running well at a price but Kauto will take all the headlines. *Price: 11/10 for Kauto Star ; Halcon is 16/1 ive put a fair bit on KS today, more than I really should but I know a bloke whos put 50K on Denman. Personally I cant wait for the GC and I'll put a bit E/W on H.G.

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Re: Cheltenham Friday 14th March 2.50 - Hills Of Aran @ 25/1 - E/W 151931.gif I think 25/1 is a big price for this CD winner. Won a good Cheltenham handicap beating Hennessy 3 lengths and was then disappointing at Haydock finishing 5th from 5, but the heavy ground might have been the cause. Ran a cracker lto, when held up and knocked sideways by Ballyfitz before the turn for home. Ran impressively in the last furlong and was always closing on The Tother One. Carrying 3lb more finished 4 lengths off him. Off level weigths I can't accept 6/1 for the Nicholls horse and 25/1 for Hills Of Aran. Way too big and Richard Johnson has won on him before.

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Re: Cheltenham Friday 14th March Some of these times wrong from Wed still. 2.00 Aigle D'Or e.w NAP of the day and the whole meeting. Backed this ante post at good e.w price in double figures and reasonably confident not just on place side but also win. Good on the flat listed winner and ran midfield in group two just behind the 2007 Arc forth which just gives an indication of ability. Over hurdles two pretty impressive performances. First time may have beat little although I think Wind Instrumnet is useful but was very impressive visuably and then again at Chelt. where it showed CD no problem which is a bonus and it was very encoraging that it picked up after the mistake at the last and saw out trip well which will be needed tomorrow. Goes in different kind of ground from flat but softer would not be a problem. Fiveforthree e.w Good bumper form from last year and a touch unlucky in last years bumper, won well enough on hurdle debut and second dotted up next time, increased trip on breeding and indeed bumper style of run will suit imo and e.w claims. 4.00 Naiad du Misselot e.w Put this up lto at Haydock when on testing ground and a good ride it picked up late having travelled well to win and can do so again, or at least go close. Rise after that but still reasonably unexposed, stays and trainer who always does well in these handicaps here looked in good form yesterday. County Zen e.w Seemingly prefered choice over other races for inform Hobbs'. Run well in early races over hurdles, stayed out 2m strongly and on testing so trip increase I see as a positive and form of last closing third in Totesport Gold Cup at Newb boosted by Punjabi in CH. Overstrand e.w 5 places Big price, trainer won race last year, bad form this season but dropping in handicap eventually and better with a bit of cut and this is its trip I think.

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Re: Cheltenham Friday 14th March Others, prices in my thread: 12.30 Chomba Womba pretty useful over in Ireland and carried on that with henderson. Notched up three wins, first two with ease (forget first winning margin) lto beat Theatre Girl who looks good as well but Chomba Womba looks just that little bit more experienced and battle hard for a race like this. Goes on different kind of ground, henderson just missed out on a winner of late at the fest. but has good chances today to put that right. 2.15 Five Dream e.w Franchoek has clear claims for this especially with no Binocular and Ashkazar around who would have been considerable threats. However the possible drying ground might not just be in this ones favour, it was a 2 miler on the flat and looks a real stayer, something normally that suits the Triumph but the slightly smaller field than usual for the race might just mean that speed and not stamina is needed more and I favour this one just over the other PN runner. Partly due to the price and partly due to this ones good progression in handicaps, which helps make it battle hardened for this race and lto with overweight in possibly a better race than at first thought, the come from behind style did not really suit that day so there is an excuse. With 4 places it makes e.w appeal today. 2.50 Lodge Lane e.w A horse full of talent if not quirks, showed that in the bumper last year when ran so wide it did amazingly well to be a close as it was, done well over hurdels, still green but notched up wins including over Carruthers when giving weight but still impressive considering lack of experience and that form has really worked out. Gerraghty a positive, interesting booking. The Tother One e.w Top class handicap progression and a player for this, seemingly getting better as trip progresses, rider gets on well and to win lto despite 30 pound higher mark than first when shows that and it seemingly is not stopping either, definite contender. 3.30 Said most of what I need to say, Kauto Star win and thats pretty much it. If ultra testing may have considered Denman but to keep it simple, KS best horse, Denman will try to bruise it into the ground but at the crunch can it repell KS's extra speed, i think not myself. forget e.w others, go for the win on Kauto. Hope everything gets round safe and we have a cracker oh and that Kauto Star wins. 4.05 Natian e.w Put up very impressive win lto at favoured Kelso where it stayed strongly following its normal solid jumping display. As I say a really good jumper, who stays strongly and does look to be improving unlike soem others. Cornish Rebel e.w I always speak fondly of this rogue, the sort of horse who at his best will travel just of KS and Denman and finish third and yet cant win effectively a two runner race lto. I always talk of ist past, RSAC placed, SGN runner up (threw away certain victory), WGN placed, Hennessy placed. Ok not necessarily that horse now but got two seconds giving weight to qualify for this, new yard may have given it sense of life and goes well at this track and over CD, jumps and stays so well, just in 2006 it was cruising in the Gold Cup and a near certainty to place at least before Tizzard mucked it up and he has barely ridden for PN since and possibly as a result of. Ok not oen to rely on for the win but capable of a place at least. Remember if it takes to Aintree this year? 4.40 Hasty prince e.w Jonjo still in and out and so is this one but it is just one pound higher than second in this race last year and despite indifferent form it did finsih second to Master Minded two starts back and it was not thrashed by 19 lengths, only 3 and a half, on that form despite MMs obvious improvement, respected big time. Mister Quasimodo e.w Has soem decent runs at time and lto in first time blinkers a good winner over two horses who ran very well yesterday to be placed, before that had third behind VPU and second behind Twist Magic. Won easily at Exeter this season as well so has been there or thereabouts all season and subsequent form of rivals behind on last start suggest could defy weight rise if blinkers second time have similar effect, and that is an if. 5.20 Mon Michel e.w Moore's runners here need big respect and the fact Moore rides this ahead of Wingman looks significant, UR last weekend told us nothing, before that was starting to progress over hurdles amongst some pretty useful handicappers although after the Triumph, Five Dream may be a handicapper no longer. Imsingingtheblues e.w CD form for a combination who have won this race in recent years and gone close as well. LTO needed the run seemingly and may not have truly seen that race out, a strong gallop here should suit big time like it did when it beat Snap Tie giving weight at the track, form looking better now of that two. Country Zen defeat also reads well and maybe significant that this was chosen ahead of other targets.

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Re: Cheltenham Friday 14th March a good level stakes profit yesterday so heres todays 13.05 breedsbreeze to beat group captain 13.40 country zen hopefully a good price 14.15 franchoek its going to be hard to beat 14.50 thetotherone nichollas at a good price 15.30 denman i was going to leave this alone its hard to go against kauto star and accorgding to my figures has a proven few pounds in hand to denman however kauto is prone to the odd error so denman is the selection 16.05 lou du moulinmas 17.20 missis potts

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Re: Cheltenham Friday 14th March 3.30 Cheltenham Exotic Dancer E/W @11/1 with >Bet365(BOG):hope Only just behind Kauto Star twice on left handed course and beaten just 2 and !/2 lengths last year. But the going should be softer this year and the pace quicker and this may bring about a change in their respective positions. Still a comparatively young horse, so this is not a forlorn hope. Denman E/W @2/1 with Ladbrokes:hope Ladbrokes are going a bit to long here IM0. Winning a race like The Hennessey with a heavy load is usually an indication that a horse is exceptional. Not that impressive in a subsequent race in Ireland and on collateral foem from that race is held by KS and ED. But on this course today things could be very different.. With the place odds on Betfair @1.44 we are getting a bit of value at 1/4 odds a place and in actual fact Ladbrokes are going longer then the current price on Betfair.

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Re: Cheltenham Friday 14th March

and in actual fact Ladbrokes are going longer then the current price on Betfair.
I dont want to sound like Im plugging them but anyone backing in the Gold Cup may want to check Laddies first. They are meant to be best or joint best price on every horse in the Gold Cup until the on course market opens (compared to about 6-7 top bookmakers)
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Re: Cheltenham Friday 14th March 1.05 Can't beleive the price on Aigle D'or currently I had him much shorter than this and I've just taken the 5/1 on betfair currently as I'll be surprised if this one doesn't get backed tomorrow I thought he would be clear favourite. He stays well, has speed and course form and his form is solid. Stable in form and should give Ap his first winner. Don't think Groupcaptain will like the ground nor get the trip and Forpadydeplaster will have his supportes but that form from his last run didn't do to much postives today. I think this favourite is a good thing in the first Aigle D'or @ 5/1 >betfair (nb) 2.15 Franchoek followed him thoughout the season an really can't see what beats him today 6/4 needs to be snapped up instantly I thought he is more evens. Franchoek @ 6/4 (nap)

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Re: Cheltenham Friday 14th March 1.40 - Mendo @ 22/1 - E/W 61515.gif Started the season in good fashion winning 3 consecutive races, where the last of those was over C&D. Fell on chasiing debut, but back to hurdles finished 4th in competitive handicap behind The Tother One and Hills Of Aran, but just a few lengths behind. I can easily see this one improving and at reasonable weight sneaking at a place. Jockey rode him when winnning here in November and 22/1 is big.

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Re: Cheltenham Friday 14th March With the 1/4 odds and 2 horses at short prices a number of horses now represent large e/w value. Yes everybody knows who the first 2 will be. But racing involves uncertainty and an interest in a number of the outsiders would IMO in similiar circumstances win you money in the long term. Note these figures based on current Betfair prices and best odds available.

HORSEBF PRICE PLACEBF WIN PRICEBOOKIES ODDS8+POTENTIAL RETURN
E DANCER 2.7814.8012.00109.37
NEPTUNE COLLONGES4.3535.0029.00152.38
AFISTFULLOFDOLLARS4.7040.0033.00157.98
Similiar figures for others in the above price range all offering E/W value:loon Can the unthinkable happen and both the big 2 are beaten?
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Re: Cheltenham Friday 14th March todays card 12.30 Gaspara - interesting, wouldnt be surprised if they have laid it out for this mares race. Ideal distance & track suits. Sweet Kiln - Consistent irish runner should go well 1.05 Breedesbreeze - been targeted at this since winning Tolworth at Sandown. The form of thta race looks ok. Nicholls gave this a good write up also Venlamar an ew fancy based on its irish form. 1.40 Mendo - won here in Nov, trends horse County Zen - had a shout for this one last week. Should go well. 2.50 Lodge Lane - stable really fancy it. 3.30 Kauto Star - in a class of its own 4.40 My petra - the confidence coming from Hendersons yard on this makes it my bet of the day today. 5.20 Roman Villa, Dark Bolero & Wanango - a difficult race to win. Just 3 against the field for me.

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Re: Cheltenham Friday 14th March 4:40 Lord Henry Last raced looked like a good prep for today, won by 20 lengths in a Class 3 Handicap Chase at Ascot (28Feb). He's raced in a Grade 3 twice on his career - Vincent O'Brien Hurdle for both, 7th of 29 and 21 of 28. He's more mature now and may even like the chase track this time around. Good pice in double figure. 2pts ew @ 20-1 Boylesports BOG Staking for the next three.. 1pt Ex BOX [6pts total] 1pt Tri BOX [6pts total] 12pts overall 5:20 Mon Michel Last raced 6 days ago but energy taken from that event should be enought to take alot out of him today - fell on first hurdle. His first visit here (17Nov07) was going in from going up against novices and could only finish 9th of 20 that day. He's won a Listed event and placed in a Class 2 Handicap Hurdle on the two he's finished from the last three outings. I think his experience this time going here is better so that 9th of 20 finish is something that looks easily to improve from. 5:20 Wingman One of the stables highest rated hurdler and tops the list in win and total prize money. Did well last time out to win his Grade debut - won Throphy Hurdle at Newbury by 2 lengths from Punjabi (6L behind Katchit 3 days ago). 5:20 Wanango Only on his 12th career race (6th over hurdles) but has shown enought to suggests he's one capable of doing well here. Jockey A P McCoy is booked with him for the first time and that goes after his 13 length victory last time out. Getting some good support and currently sits as the second favorite.

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Re: Cheltenham Friday 14th March 5.20 - Wanango @ 13/2 E/W B.O.G. - Stan James 20887.gif Easy 2m handicap chase winner last month and races off 1lb lower mark here. No mug over hurdles two seasons ago and with AP on board I can see this one running a big race.

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