Gingers Jumpers

[Gingertipster]

Re: Gingers Jumpers 3:40 Sandown £40 @ 6.8/1 Kock De La Verse (18% 9/2) £15 @ 3.6/1 Tana River (24% 100/30) £12 @ 11.5/1 Bubble Boy (11% 8/1)

[Gingertipster]

Re: Gingers Jumpers 3:40 Sandown 24% 100/30 Tana River ran a promising race over hurdles on reappearance. He loves heavy ground and an extreme test. Possibly jumps better when racing prominently but there are other front runners in the race. 11/4 18.5% 9/2 Kock De La Verse has not been that consistant in the past but was in excellent form this spring, has not run for some time. Trainer in cracking form so she should be able to know whether it is fit. Unproven on heavy but acts well on soft and stays well. 4/1 2.5% 40/1Ballyboy is out of form and doubtful stayer. 28/1 16% 11/2 Killbeggan Blade ran well over hurdles on reappearance, stays and acts. His trainer though is not in great form. 9/2 11% 8/1 Bubble Boy jumps well, acts well and stays well and in form (won a poor race last time). There may be a less exposed horse to beat him but is currently over priced. Usually goes from he front. 7/1 13.5% 13/2 The Luder ran well on reappearance but is possibly best fresh and often allows one to beat himself. Doubtful stayer. Do not like backing against Nicholls when he is in fabulous form though. 11/2 14.5% 6/1 McEvoy is interesting, 2nd in the Ulster National (3 ½ miles heavy) and possible improvement to come. Ran well first start for stable but is yet another front runner and trainer could be in better form. 5/1

[Gingertipster]

Re: Gingers Jumpers 2:05 Sandown £50 @ 4.2/1 Mahogany Blaze (25% 3/1)

[Gingertipster]

Re: Gingers Jumpers 2:05 Sandown 25.5% 3/1 Mahogany Blaze won well on his chase debut and is built for fences so should do better than over hurdles. That run was when Twiston-Davis was in cracking form. Not so good now but has had a couple of wins and a place in the last few days. Has had a break since but goes well fresh. Has good form on very soft and is certain to stay. 11/4 36.5%Moon Over Miami improved to win a novice chase at Cheltenham (jumped well on very soft ground), as he did when running over hurdles. Whether he will be as effective at Sandown remains to be seen. Should be fav but not that short. 13/8 19% 9/2 Marodima won well last time when making all. Pankake also likes to go from the front. It is difficult to see why he should be so short today. 7/2 0.1% 1000/1 Predicament will only win if the others fall. 500/1 19% 9/2 Pancake has yet to run over fences and is in at the deep end but this is not the quality of previous years. Good front running juvenile hurdler who gets some weight from the others (not as much as previous years). Might need further than this to produce his best. 7/2

[mowgli77]

Re: Gingers Jumpers

2:05 Sandown £50 @ 4.2/1 Mahogany Blaze (25% 3/1)

I thought you had that won for a while, seemed to be travelling well but couldn't find enough to get past Marodima. Pancake jumped ok but was clearly not good enough on its debut.

[softie]

Re: Gingers Jumpers Oi Ginge - where`s your tips for Fontwell today.......do you expect me to go unarmed!!!! :spank :lol

[Gingertipster]

Re: Gingers Jumpers Sorry Softie, not going to / betting at Fontwell today. Preparing for a visit to Emma Lavelle's tomorrow. Unfortunately I am not her only guest.;) If you know what I mean. Ginge

[Spooner]

Re: Gingers Jumpers Nice thread Ginge. :clap Will be following closely, You certainly know your stuff. :ok Keep it up. :tongue2

[Gingertipster]

Re: Gingers Jumpers Results Thursday Wincanton 1:40 Wincanton £67 @ 3.4/1 Barton Legend3rd £18 @ 3.8/1 Monsieur Villez cp 43.5% 5/4 -£85 Deficit 2:40 Wincanton £30 @ 9.8/1 Monfils Monfils £10 each way @ 16/1 Voire Dire cp 15.2% 11/2 -£50 Deficit 3:10 Wincanton £80 @ 2.65/1 Fine By Me 2nd £25 @ 3.4/1 Trust Fund 1st Return £110.00 cp 50.1% Evens cs £105 £5 Profit (Thurs sub total -£130.00) Sandown Friday Results 1:55 Sandown £28 @ 8.6/1 Kealshore Boy £6 @ 43/1 Talenti £5 @ 7.4/1 Mount Oscar 2nd cp 24.6% 3/1 -£39 Deficit 2:30 Sandown £38 @ 5.6/1 Fair Question £13 @ 4.4/1 Glaskar Mill 2nd £18@ 3/1 Ungaro cp 58.7% 8/11 -£73 Defecit (put away with the winners secret breathing operation) (Fri sub total -£112.00) Sandown Saturday Results 2:05 Sandown £50 @ 4.2/1 Mahogany Blaze 2nd 19.2% -£50 Deficit 2:35 Sandown £40 @ 6.2/1 Ashley Brook £17 @ 3.3/1 Monet’s Garden £12 @ 5/1 Twist Magic 1st Return £72.00 cp 53.9% 10/11 cs £69 £3 Profit 3:40 Sandown £40 @ 6.8/1 Kock De La Vesre £15 @ 3.6/1 Tana River 2nd £12 @ 11.5/1 Bubble Boy cp 32.5% 85/40 -£67 Deficit (Sat sub Total -£114.00) 3 days Stake £530.00 Return £182.00 Deficit £356.00

[Gingertipster]

Re: Gingers Jumpers

Total Return £4021.60 Total Stakes £2389 Total Profit £1174.60 49.2% Avg. bet per race £86.03 Avg. price taken per race 1205.4 (36.5%) 7/4 Avg. price per horse 89HB (13.5%) 13/2 Avg. price per winner 310.9 (20.7%) 4/1 Strike Rate 15 / 33 45.5%

Thik I made a few errors last week backing horses with dubious form, fallers last time out and missing one winner in 3:40 Sandown I should have backed. The bubble has not burst, it exploded!:lol

[Gingertipster]

Re: Gingers Jumpers 1:20 Cheltenham £38 each way @ 7/1 Oferal D'Airy (20% 4/1) £13 @ 7.2/1 Blue Splash (16% 11/2) £5 @ 21/1 Simon (7.25% 13/1) £5 @ 45/1 Baron Windrush (5.25% 18/1) 3:05 Cheltenham £25 @ 15/1 Hennessy (11% 8/1) £40 @ 3.9/1 Leading Contender (23% 100/30) £28 @ 6/1 Iwillrememberyou (18.25% 9/2)

[Gingertipster]

Re: Gingers Jumpers 1:20 Cheltenham 6% 16/1 Monkrhostin (12/1) 5.5% 18/1 L’Ami (14/1) 0.75% 132/1 Kingscliff (50/1) 7.25% 13/1 Simon (10/1) ran o.k. on his reappearance (stables runners usually need it). His winning form is on soft but was running a big race in the Grand National on good ground. 3m 1½ f on good going might not be a stiff enough test for him these days. Worth taking a chance at the current price. Surprised 20% 4/1 Ofarel D’Airy (100/30) is so big a price with the stable in such great form. Has not done much yet but is a winner here and seemed to give the race away last time. He pricked his ears and idled in front. Traveled well and may be a lot better than the result suggests, though there is a question about his temperament, hence the each way bet. Acts well on the going and should stay the trip. 1.5% 66/1 Cornish Sett (40/1) 0.75% 132/1 Kelami (66/1) 10% 9/1 Parsons Legacy (7/1) Almost everything I said about Simon, can be said about 5.25% 18/1 Baron Windrush (14/1) as well, but even more so. Best on soft with an extreme test. However, if he does have the speed there are not many front-runners here and if allowed a soft lead could stay there at a massive price. 3% 33/1 Without A Doubt (22/1) 16% 11/2 Blue Splash (9/2) is improving fast but all his form is on softer, trainer could be in better form too. 6.75% 14/1 Over The Creek (10/1) is favourite! It must be on home reputation alone. Form does not look good enough though may be capable of better. Not always the best of jumpers either and possibly best on softer. 5.75% 16/1 Flying Enterprise (12/1) 5.75% 16/1 Principe Azzurro (12/1) 5.75% 16/1 Herecomestanley (12/1) 0.125% 800/1 Model Son (200/1) 3:05 Cheltenham 16.5% 5/1 Millenium Royal ( was never going to be as short as the Racing Post suggests. Won at Haydock (where he has run well before) on very soft going. Has never run to the same form on good ground or at Cheltenham, and has a poor win / run ratio. 9/2 6% 16/1 Attorney General 13/1 10.5% Wild Cane Ridge seems value and have saved on this one this morning. There is a big worry about the going. He was pulled up over fences when jumping poorly last time. On chase form looks well handicapped (2nd in a competitive handicap at Haydock last season). 7/1 6% 16/1 Onnix 12/1 3% 33/1 Gold Gun 22/1 23% 100/30 Leading Contender has been running well at shorter distances but being outpaced in the closing stages. Might be able to improve stepped up in trip and proven on the going. 3/1 2.5% 40/1 Spring Breeze 25/1 18.25% 9/2 Iwillrememberyou has won his last two starts effortlessly and although taken a hike in the weights for that there is no knowing how much he had in hand. Worth taking a chance on him acting on the ground (all form on very soft) at the price. 1% 100/1 Jockser 50/1 11% 8/1 Hennessy is well out of the weights but is a big sort, the type to improve with racing. Has had two runs over fences since winning a novice hurdle in May. Last time out chased home 1:20 favourite Over The Creek. 2% 50/1 All Noble 28/1 0.25% 400/1 Takesar 100/1

[Gingertipster]

Re: Gingers Jumpers 3:10 Cheltenham £31 @ 12/1 Osana (13.125% 13/2) £57 @ 4.8/1 Afsoun (21.25% 7/2) £12 @ 8.2/1 Desert Quest (13.5% 13/2) Thought better put this up before the price changes. More later

[mowgli77]

Re: Gingers Jumpers

3:10 Cheltenham £31 @ 12/1 Osana (13.125% 13/2) £57 @ 4.8/1 Afsoun (21.25% 7/2) £12 @ 8.2/1 Desert Quest (13.5% 13/2) Thought better put this up before the price changes. More later

I noticed you mention Afsoun after its last race. Just didn't stay and was never going to outbattle Hardy Eustace over that trip. I took a lot of positives from that race as it travelled like a dream for such a long way. I think I'll be on this tomorrow too so good luck, it will certainly be close. :ok

[Gingertipster]

Re: Gingers Jumpers 2:40 Cheltenham £33 @ 8.6/1 Il Duce (14.5% 6/1) £14 @ 31/1 Tamarinbleu (6.5% 15/1) £9 @20/1 Knowhere (8.25% 11/1) £10 @ 7.8/1 Palarshan (14.5% 6/1) £2 @ 45/1 Magic Sky (3.75% 25/1)

[Gingertipster]

Re: Gingers Jumpers 1:30 Cheltenham £50 @ 5.4/1 Liberate (21% 4/1) £10 @ 8.6/1 Pouvoir (14.5% 6/1) Another bet to come in this race when my bet has been taken.

[Gingertipster]

Re: Gingers Jumpers Fed up with waiting. Got some 13.5/1 and some 13/1 so: Addition. 1:30 Cheltenham £28 @ 13/1 Grand Bleu (12.5% 7/1)

[Gingertipster]

Re: Gingers Jumpers Boylesports Saturday 3:10 Cheltenham 21.25% 7/2 Afsoun is only a 5 year old and entitled to improve. Traveled well when 2nd on reappearance (19f) and before falling in the Christmas hurdle, which suggests he has the speed for this. Mick lost his whip at the last, which did not help last time. If anything may do better back in trip. For although he has the breeding to be better over further, is an excitable sort and such types often want shorter. Tends to get on his toes but as long as he does not sweat up as he did at Wincanton last year, should be o.k. (market should tell close to off time).Effective on good or heavy going, held up or racing prominently. Stable could be in better form but had a winner yesterday. 100/30 3.5% 28/1 Straw Bear’s connections are probably just hoping for an encouraging first run back from injury. Broke blood vessels when last seen in the Champion as well. Wincanton form where he beat a below form Afsoun is very suspect, placed horses no good. Might prefer softer ground these days. 20/1 21.25% 7/2 Sublimity won a poor Champion in impressive fashion on similar ground. Usually goes well fresh but the vibes from the stable have not been good this time. Has an excellent turn of foot and held up for a late run. Did not have the best temperament as a flat horse, sometimes giving races away. It will be interesting to see if his small yard can keep him interested this term as he possibly has more improvement in him. 100/30 15% 11/2 Katchit has a perfect record here but this is a tougher task. He won a poor race on reappearance before beaten in to third at Newcastle. Possible he may do better returned to Cheltenham and goes well on good going. Very genuine battler but is not very big, so may not have much scope for further improvement (been saying that for the last nine months). 9/2 0.125% 800/1Penzance’s Triumph form would not be good enough to win this and has not been near that for some time. Does act on the going though. 200/1 13.25% 13/2 Desert Quest has been in good form over fences, taking on inferior opposition around the gaffs. Not always impressed with his finishing effort and this may be too competitive for his liking. However, his handicap form is not far behind the best of these and gets weight from most. Has raced prominently over fences but usually held up. Acts well on good going. Might be one to back now, then lay when he looms up two out. 11/2 12.5% 7/1 Macs Joy has seemed on the downgrade recently but reportedly was never right last season. If back to his best will make them all go getting 8lbs from Sublimity. Disappointed slightly on his reappearance but is possibly at his very best on good going. I backed him in the last three Champion Hurdles but am skeptical whether his excellent trainer can get him back to his best. 6/1 13.125% 13/2 Osana ran a tremendous race on his reappearance in the Greatwood at a time when the Pipe stable was out of form (now much better). Raced prominently throughout under a big weight and looked the winner turning in, possibly just needing it. It was nowhere near the performance of Rooster Booster in the same race but very promising none the less. He did best of those up with a furious pace in the County Hurdle. Some opponents have made the running before but usually held up or track pace. Osana may well get a soft lead and proven on the going. With further improvement virtually guaranteed, he could well bridge the gap and represents outstanding value. 11/2 2:40 Cheltenham 8.25% 11/1 Knowhere needed all the trip to get competitive in two runs at Cheltenham this season and the first time blinkers may well sharpen him up. Ran a reasonable race in the Hennessy last time out where possibly unsuited by the slow early pace. Has been busy but is keeping his form well. 17/2 6.5% 15/1 Tamarinbleu has been in good form this summer winning a competitive 16 runner handicap over 3 miles at Perth. Showed plenty of speed and may be able to improve again back in trip. Consistent and goes well fresh (not run since June). If he were the stables first string would be a lot shorter in the betting. 11/1 3% 33/1 Faasel 22/1 14.5% 6/1 Il Duce’s improved last time when second in the Paddy Power. Has an in and out profile but is more consistent on a sound surface. Jumps well and a must for any short list. 5/1 0.25% 400/1 Knight Legend 100/1 1% 100/1 Yes Sir 50/1 1.5% 66/1 Le Volfoni 33/1 3.25% 28/1 New Alco 20/1 18.75% 9/2 New Little Bric is deservedly favourite but I missed the 5/1 at Corals so for me is no longer value. Outpaced two out on reappearance in a competitive handicap over Ascot’s 19 furlongs (good). Can improve over a stiffer track and fences today although was below form at the festival last term. 7/2 3.75% 25/1Idole First 18/1 3.75% 25/1 The fact Magic Sky’s best form is in strongly run race at 2 miles gives encouragement he will stay this trip (has won over 2 ½ miles on soft before). With unfashionable connections, he is always likely to be at a bigger price than he should be. Stable in excellent form and is a lively outsider. 18/1 0.25% 400/1 Black Hills 100/1 14.5% 6/1 Palarshan was hampered by the fall of Granit Jack on his reappearance (goes well fresh) and should finish close to Il Duce if he is not effected b the bounce factor. Loves Cheltenham and on good going. 5/1 4.5% 22/1 Copsale Lad 16/1 10.25% 17/2 Abragante is Tom Segal’s choice but I do not really see why. He has either won races on the bridle or given them away in the past. This looks too competitive for him although could improve further. Going well (held up) for a long way in the Hennessy before not staying the trip on soft going. 13/2 5.25% 18/1 Patman du Charmil ran an excellent race for an experienced horse in the Paddy Power. Up there throughout. If Yes Sir (another front runner) was not in the race, I would make him a descent bet. 14/1

[Gingertipster]

Re: Gingers Jumpers Boylesports Saturday Contd. 1:30 Cheltenham Much of the form for this race revolves around the Reg Griffin 50 Years At Timeform Hurdle at Haydock 2 miles on soft. Gwanako (3rd) is better off at the weights this time. He was going well turning in but made mistakes at the last two flights. Even so, he did not impress me as a stayer (extra 5f here). The second on the other hand, Pouvoir did not travel so well but stayed on. Could improve at todays trip (needs to). The winner Pigeon Island did it well but might be exposed now and was possibly suited to by being the last to challenge. Had good form on a sound surface in the summer but improved recently on a soft surface. The fifth Grand Bleu is interesting being from a staying family. Could improve tackling further than 2 ¼ miles for the first time. Acted on good when 4th to Katchit at Aintree last season. Stable Companion Good Bye Simon is not out of it but may be best with plenty of give. My Turn Now was disappointing on his reappearance but had some good runs last season at grade 1 level. Proven over trip and ground. Key Time was a good flat horse (best on a sound surface) when successful at the Goodwood Festival. Does not have much experience for a race like this but is unexposed. Liberate has the experience and acted well on good going when 2nd in the Triumph, staying on. By Lomitas so should be suited by the distance today. Stables runners do not usually lack for fitness first time up. 10% 9/1 Goodbye Simon 7/1 12.5% 7/1 Grand Bleu 11/2 20% 4/1 Gwanako 100/30 7% 14/1 My Turn Now 11/1 7.5% 13/1 Pigeon Island 10/1 7.5% 13/1 Key Time 9/1 21% 4/1 Liberate 100/30 14.5% 6/1 Pouvoir 5/1

[mowgli77]

Re: Gingers Jumpers

£31 @ 12/1 Osana (13.125% 13/2)

WINNER :clap

£14 @ 31/1 Tamarinbleu (6.5% 15/1)

WINNER :clap

£10 @ 8.6/1 Pouvoir (14.5% 6/1)

WINNER :clap

[stewartd14]

Re: Gingers Jumpers :notworthy:notworthy:notworthy:notworthy:notworthy Normally follow this thread, but didnt have much time to come on here this morning. :wall:wall :clap:clap:clap though

[WoodyTHFC]

Re: Gingers Jumpers Top class results and good analysis. I went with Macs Joy getting the weight but sadly not to be but still a good winner in Osana who I would have thought would be a decent chance in the CH now even off level weights and given that he would be unlikely to dominate as much. I cant help that feel that it is a very poor race this year. If I was a trainer and had any sort of pretty decent 2m hurdle handicapper I would even give it a chance in this years CH.

[softie]

Re: Gingers Jumpers Plenty of hard work there Ginge, glad to see the results came good to reward that effort.:ok

[Gingertipster]

Re: Gingers Jumpers Weekend Profit / Loss Friday 14th Dec

1:20 Cheltenham £38 each way @ 7/1 Oferal D'Airy (20% 4/1) £13 @ 7.2/1 Blue Splash (16% 11/2) £5 @ 21/1 Simon (7.25% 13/1) 2nd £5 @ 45/1 Baron Windrush (5.25% 18/1) cp 31.4% 9/4 -£99 Deficit 3:05 Cheltenham £25 @ 15/1 Hennessy (11% 8/1) £40 @ 3.9/1 Leading Contender (23% 100/30) 1st Return £196.00 £28 @ 6/1 Iwillrememberyou (18.25% 9/2) cp 40.5% 6/4 cs £93 + £103.00 Profit Fridays Stake £192 Return £196 Days Profit £4.00

Saturday 15th 1:30 Cheltenham £50 @ 5.4/1 Liberate £10 @ 8.6/1 Pouvoir 1st Return £96.00 £28 @ 13/1 Grand Bleu cp 33.1% 2/1 cs £88 + £8.00 Profit 2:40 Cheltenham £9 @ 20/1 Knowhere £14 @ 31/1 Tamarinbleu 1st Return £448.00 £33 @ 8.6/1 Il Duce £2 @ 45/1 Magic Sky £10 @ 7.8/1 Palarshan cp 31.9% 85/40 cs £68 + £380.00 Profit 3:10 Cheltenham £57 @ 4.8/1 Afsoun £12 @ 8.2/1 Desert Quest £31 @ 12/1 Osana 1st Return £403.00 cp 35.8% 7/4 cs £100 + £303.00 Profit Saturday Stake £256 Return £947.00 £691.00 Profit Weekend Stakes £448 Return £1143.00 Profit £695.00

[Gingertipster]

Re: Gingers Jumpers There is an error on my last Total profit / loss post. Total Stake should read £2839 not £2389. % profit should be 41.4% not 49.1%. The rest is correct. For some reason my computer keeps crashing when I try and edit it. UPDATED TOTALS Total Return £5164.60 Total Stakes £3287 Total Profit £1877.60 57.1% Avg. Bet per race £86.50 Avg. price taken per race 1378.1 (36.3%) 7/4 Avg. price per horse HB 107 (12.9%) 7/1 Avg. price winner 352.5 (18.6%) 9/2 SR 19 / 38 50% Next bets Tuesday night for Newbury wednesday

[Gingertipster]

Re: Gingers Jumpers 1:00 Newbury £44 @ 7.8/1 Burren Legend (18% 9/2) £40 @ 7.4/1 Nils Anderson (16.5% 5/1) £10 @ 9/1 Nictos de Bersy (13.5% 13/2) Took all rates down from 9.5/1 to 7.4/1 Nils Probably more to come

[stewartd14]

Re: Gingers Jumpers Good luck tomorrow Mark. :ok:ok :hope

[Gingertipster]

Re: Gingers Jumpers 1:00 Newbury This looks a very open handicap. Can not see how Mister Potter can start fav, fell too far out last time to know where he would have finished. Very best form on very soft too. Burren Legend ran well on his chase debut at Sandown. If he has learnt from that experience should go close for an in form stable. Would not mind what the ground is. Held up. Nils Anderson was a bit disappointing last time but ignore that and he has a great chance. Stable in good form too. Usually races prominently. Nictos de Bersy also races to the fore. Ran well first time over fences and can run well from a small yard. 10% 9/1 The Sawyer 13/2 16% 11/2 Bagan 9/2 10% 9/1 Mister Potter 7/1 13.5% 13/2 Nictos De Bersy 11/2 4% 25/1 Double Dizzy 16/1 18% 9/2 Burren Legend 4/1 16% 11/2 Nils Anderson 9/2 12.5% 7/1 Autumn Red 6/1 12:30 Newbury £35 @ 5.4/1 Jardin De Vienne (20% 4/1) £35 @ Evens Jardin De Vienne (place) Sorry, not much time so: Group Captain much respected but who knows how will jump? Selection should be in first 3. 2:05 Newbury £72 @ 3.7/1 Kew Jumper (27% 11/4) £18 @ 4.1/1 Najca De Thaix (27% 11/4) Both selections capable of better. Was going to make Najca main bet but with so many front runners don’t know how he will like being taken on. Seems a bit quirky too. Kew Jumper ran a promising race first time after long absence. If does not bounce should improve. 3:40 Newbury £100 @ 2.55/1 Call Me A Legend (33% 2/1) Her chance looks about a third or better (better than 28% anyway) judged on previous winners of this race.

[Gingertipster]

Re: Gingers Jumpers Last week I came up with Tamarinbleu 31/1 and Osana 12/1. See if I can do it again. 1:40 Ascot £15 @ 33/1 Sonnyanjoe (7.25% 13/1) others later

[Gingertipster]

Re: Gingers Jumpers 2:15 Ascot £57 @ 4.3/1 Jack The Giant (22.5% 7/2) £33 @ 8.6/1 Viso (14% 6/1) Will now work out the 1:05 Ascot.