Gingers Jumpers

[Gingertipster]

Re: Gingers Jumpers Another bet plus additions 2:35 Newbury £66 @ 4/1 Hobbs Hill (25% 3/1) 2:05 Newbury £10 @ 8.4/1 Eden Linty 1:00 Newbury £10 @ 3.6/1 Soliya

[Gingertipster]

Re: Gingers Jumpers 2:35 Newbury Got 4.8/1 about Hobbs Hill but was hanging on to see if I could tip it each way. So as it is shorter now….. 25% 3/1Hobbs Hill has won a couple of minor novice chases, jumping fluently each time out in front. Last season looked well suited by some give, lightly raced and can improve again. 11/4 28.5% 5/2 Everyone knows Silverburns breeding but from my visit to the stable, he has nowhere near the presence of his brother Denman. Also ran poorly last two starts at Cheltenham and Aintree (possibly unsuited by the good going). Still has a lot to prove and is much shorter than he should be in the market. 9/4 13.25% 13/2 Papini runs well on a flat track. Seemed to crumple on landing last time at Cheltenham (not used to drop fences). Won a modest race at Ascot before that and remains with potential. Acts on any going and equally effective front running or tracking the pace. 11/2 15% 11/2Air Force One is the only one of these in my Tote 10 to follow lists (to win Sun Alliance). Improved in the Spa Hurdle when stepped up to 3m on good going. This trip could be too short and needed the run first time last season. 9/2 13.25% 13/2 Lead On made mistakes over hurdles when favourite at Cheltenham (2m). Will be better suited by todays trip judging by his penultimate start. Fit for his chase debut and could run well if his jumping stands up to the test. 5/1 2% 50/1 Nation State does not look up to this standard. 33/1 3% 33/1 Battlecry ran as if amiss last time, could take on Hobbs Hill for the lead. 25/1 100% (114.6%) Papini and Lead On also look value

[secretmachines]

Re: Gingers Jumpers

Another bet plus additions 2:35 Newbury £66 @ 4/1 Hobbs Hill (25% 3/1) 2:05 Newbury £10 @ 8.4/1 Eden Linty 1:00 Newbury £10 @ 3.6/1 Soliya

wow, what a hat-trick fella! i only found this site today, and went for Hobbs Hill too =)

[bowles10]

Re: Gingers Jumpers

Another bet plus additions 2:35 Newbury £66 @ 4/1 Hobbs Hill (25% 3/1) 2:05 Newbury £10 @ 8.4/1 Eden Linty 1:00 Newbury £10 @ 3.6/1 Soliya

well done mate, great profit :ok

[stewartd14]

Re: Gingers Jumpers

Newbury Friday 1:00 Newbury £100 @ 3/1 Soliya (2/1 33.5%) 2:05 Newbury £28 @ 6.4/1 Eden Linty (9/2 19%) £28 @ 12/1 That’s Rhythem (7/1 12.5%) £28 @ 10.5/1 Miko De Beauchene (7/1 12.5%) £9 @ 11.5/1 According To Pete (10.5% 17/2) £4 @ 24/1 Accordello (6% 16/1) 3:40 Newbury £36 @ 7.8/1 The Package (16.5% 5/1) £40 @ Evens Theatrical Moment (53% 10/11) analysis to come

Make that cracking 4-timer :clap:clap:clap:clap

[Gingertipster]

Re: Gingers Jumpers Thanks lads, just waiting for the bubble to birst. Won't have time to do updates on profit / loss tables until sunday night as am going to Newbury all 3 days. 2:40 Newbury £18 @ 18.5/1 Dom Dorgeval (8.5% 11/1) £22 @ 18/1 Sir Rembrandt (9% 10/1) More bets later

[Gingertipster]

Re: Gingers Jumpers 2:05 Newbury £50 @ 6.6/1 Special Envoy (20% 4/1) £35 @ 7.2/1 Blazing Bailey (15% 11/2) £15 @ 5.8/1 Kasbah Bliss (16.75% 5/1)

[BillyHills]

Re: Gingers Jumpers Well done Ginge, nice work!

[softie]

Re: Gingers Jumpers Good to see all the hard work bearing fruit Ginge, long may it continue.

[Gingertipster]

Re: Gingers Jumpers 1:35 Newbury £50 @ 5.8/1 Magic Sky (20% 4/1) £50 @ 6.8/1 Bohemian Spirit (20% 4/1) 3:15 Newbury £80 @ 3/1 Maljimar (29% 5/2) £20 @ 9/1 The Entomologist (15% 11/2)

[Gingertipster]

Re: Gingers Jumpers Addition 2:40 Newbury £25 @ best early price with bookies in morning (if that is allowed) Snowy Morning (16.5% 5/1) Make that £30

[Gingertipster]

Re: Gingers Jumpers 2:40 Newbury (worked out for soft) 16.5% 5/1 Denman (9/2) 1.5% 66/1 Juvenier (40/1) 0.75% 132/1 Madison De Berlais (66/1) 4.5% 22/1 Knowhere (16/1) 8.5% 11/1 Dom Dorgeval (17/2) 12.5% 7/1 New Alco (11/2) 1.25% 80/1 Always Waining (33/1) 0.1% 1000/1 Strong Flow (250/1) 16.5% 5/1 Snowy Morning (9/2) 10% 9/1 Sir Rembrandt (15/2) 4% 25/1 Patsy Hall (16/1) 2.5% 40/1 Dream Alliance (25/1) 0.3% 300/1 D’Argent (80/1) 0.125% 800/1 Point Barrow (200/1) 11.5% 15/2 Abragante (6/1) 4.75% 20/1 Character Building (14/1) 4.5% 22/1 Bible Lord (15/1) 0.05% 2000/1 Bowlease (300/1) 100% (119.75%) Asking a lot of Denman on the ground but looks capable of making into a top class staying chaser so should be joint fav. Snowy Morning who was 2nd to Denman in Sun Alliance should be suited by the emphasis on stamina and is proven on soft / heavy. New Alco stays 3m and acts on soft but will he stay 26f on soft? Stable in good form. Exactly the same comments can be made of Abragante as New Alco. Abragante also takes some knowing, a change of jockey is a worry. Held up for a late run, sometimes finds little but has a good strike rate. Sir Rembrandt comes here from a good reappearance at Cheltenham, good record there and first time out. However, raced with more enthusiasm and is very well handicapped on his Gold Cup form. Acts on soft and stays well. A big field might not suit him these days though. Dom Dorgeval may not be that well handicapped on chase form but is not badly off judged on hurdles. Stays well and has not had many opportunities to run on soft / heavy going over fences. Character Building stays and acts it is just a question about will he put it all in. Seemed to give a race away at Cheltenham. Also fitness and stable form doubts. Knowhere may be suited by more than 2 ½ miles but 3 ¼ on soft? Stable just showing signs of going off the boil. Bible Lord is not sure to stay the trip in the conditions either though does act well on soft. Progressive, bold jumping young chaser. Possibly needed race on reappearance, stable form is a worry. Surprised the stewards did not look in to the running of Patsy Hall last time, very little effort given over an inadequate trip. Bookies have not taken any chances with him. 2:05 Newbury 23% 100/30 Inglis Drever is a lazy horse, did win this last season first time up but did not have to be anywhere near best. Struggled home there and this is much better. Very best runs at Cheltenham on firmer ground. (3/1) 15% 11/2 Black Jack Ketchum may not stay the trip in soft conditions, best form on firmer going. Has not impressed with his finishing effort recently. (9/2) 15% 11/2 Blazing Bailey does act on the going and stays the trip, slight doubt if stays trip on ground. Quite a bit below best on reappearance. Bookies seem to have over reacted after disappointed on reappearance, possibly needed it. (5/1) 16.75% 5/1 Kasbah Bliss has been in good form in France this season (won two grade 3’s) and acts well on soft going. Has a chance if can improve a little. (9/2) 5.25% 18/1 Chief Dan George looked grossly flattered at Aintree where front two in betting went off like scolded cats. (14/1) 2% 50/1 Oscar Park ran well first time out last season at this meeting but does not look up to this. (33/1) 3% 33/1 Crystal D’Anay would have to be at his very best (form and behavior) to win this first time up after a lengthy absence. (22/1) 20% 4/1 Special Envoy was unlucky again to fall at the last last week, but if recovered can go well here. Travelled supremely well there and hopefully did not take too much out of himself. Jockey not able to claim his allowance here. Unlike most Special Envoy is capable of racing prominently and may get a soft lead. Races yesterday favoured those up with the pace. (7/2) 100% (113.9%) More analysis to come.

[Gingertipster]

Re: Gingers Jumpers 1:35 Newbury (Hope I have not got this one wrong, seems quite different to Betfair) 20% 4/1 Magic Sky (22% 7/2) 6% 16/1 Calatagan (7.5% 13/1) 15% 11/2 Percussionist (18% 9/2) 20% 4/1 Bohemian Spirit (22% 7/2) 6.25% 15/1 Lord Henry (7.75% 12/1) 6.25% 15/1 Saintsaire (7.75% 12/1) 7% 14/1 Offement (8.5% 11/1) 18% 9/2 Mambo Des Mottes (20% 4/1) 1.5% 66/1 Roofing Spirit (2.25% 40/1) 100% (115.75%) 3:15 Newbury 11.5% 15/2 Nycteos (14% 6/1) 4% 25/1 Supreme Prince (5.5% 18/1) 4% 25/1 Ardaghy (5.5% 18/1) 6% 16/1 Bishops Bridge (7.5% 13/1) 7.5% 13/1 Whispered Secret (9% 10/1) 5% 20/1 Chief Yeoman (6% 16/1) 2.5% 40/1 Mr Boo (3.25% 28/1) 6% 16/1 Patricksnineteenth (7.75% 12/1) 16% 11/2 The Entomologist (18% 9/2) 1.5% 66/1 Kelrev (2.25% 40/1) 29% 5/2 Maljimar (31% 9/4) 4% 25/1 Free Gift (5% 20/1) 3% 33/1 Warpath (4.25% 22/1) 100% (119%) Hope to do a brief write up of bets in the morning.

[Gingertipster]

Re: Gingers Jumpers Addition 2:40 Newbury £15 @ 5.4/1 Denman (16.5% 5/1)

[Gingertipster]

Re: Gingers Jumpers Addition 3:15 Newbury £4 @ 64/1 Free Gift (4.75% 20/1) £5 @ 20/1 Bishops Bridge (7.25% 13/1) The Entomologist now a non runner. Maljimars price was worth 2.64/1 now.

[Gingertipster]

Re: Gingers Jumpers 1:35 Newbury Punters prejudice against lady jockeys means Bohemian Spirit is a massive price today. His form with Rose Davidson aboard is surely good enough to see him go close. There looks to be plenty of pace on here (not quite as much as last week at Ascot) for Magic Sky to produce his best and taken to get my losses back. Percussionist has his conditions but just wonder if this is a little too competative. A thinker. Mambo Des Mottes may be better over further but conditions and likely pace may bring his stamina in to play. Trainers first time out record is a worry. 3:15 Newbury Maljimar ran a very encouraging race at Cheltenham on reappearance and could well improve today (trainer not known for first time out winners). Equally effective on this surface and is up against many exposed, out of form or poor jumpers. Bishops Bridge has run well at the trip before but may not stay on this surface. Worth taking a chance at the price. Same comments apply to Free Gift who jumps well and could surprise a fe if given a soft lead. Nycteos would be a danger to all if acting on soft. Has some form on it but improved final start on good last term.

[Gingertipster]

Re: Gingers Jumpers Sunday Soggy Sunday 12:30 Newbury £57 @ 5.2/1 Senora Snoopy (22% 7/2) Have backed Ice Tea in the 2:05 at 22/1 but the price has gone so can not recommend the bet. 2:40 Newbury £30 @ 8.8/1 Cousin Nicky (15% 11/2) £9 @ 8.4/1 Nice Try (13% 13/2) £40 @ 6.8/1 Aztec Warrior (17% 5/1) (prices worked out are not including the probable non-runner Bible Lord but not as yet any reduction factor) 3:45 Newbury £133 @ 2.1/1 Woolcombe Folly (6/4 40%)

[Gingertipster]

Re: Gingers Jumpers 12:30 Newbury This looks to me between three. One Gulp was not far behind in the champion bumper (9th) but it striked me as a substandard race. She won a bumper first time out on heavy last term but was disappointing on her final appearance. Should stay the trip but stable is struggling for winners at present. This is her hurdling debut. Delena looks one of the stables lesser lights. Beaten last season over hurdles at Ludlow, Taunton and Newton Abbot. Winner of bumper on soft. Senora Snoopy was runner up twice on very soft going at 2 ½ miles over hurdles in 06 / 07. The last of which back in January. Probably has had an injury since but that was before the yard hit top form in March, so could yet improve. Now in good form also. All three are making their reappearance and not much between them on form. Preference is for the latter as she is the bigger price. 2:40 Newbury 15% 11/2 Cousin Nicky fell at the first on his “reappearance”, and do not like backing fallers of their last run. However, there are plenty of reasons not to back others. At least he is proven in conditions. With It’s Crucial and Nice Try also liking to race up with the pace I hope they do not take each other on. It has proved difficult to come from rear at this meeting anyway. 5/1 22% 7/2 Officer De Reserve is probably the least exposed horse but has yet to prove he stays the trip on a fast surface let alone a testing one. 3/1 17% 5/1 Aztec Warrior stays 2 ½m and won a novice hurdle on heavy. Descent enough novice chaser last term despite the stable not being in great form all season. Now much better and could improve this season, especially as he is a good size (impressed me at Fontwell). 4/1 11.5% 15/2 Preacher Boy may need further even in these conditions. 13/2 13% 13/2 Nice Try comes back slightly in trip, ran well for a long way last time under todays jockey and worth chancing he stays. Proven in very soft at up to 2 ½ miles. 11/2 10% 9/1 Gentleman Jimmy did not run with much encouragement at Wincanton on his first start for Alan King. Was quite well fancied there. 15/2 6% 16/1 Young Collier injury prone lghtly raced chaser but has run well after a long lay off. Another not sure to stay. 12/1 ------- Bible Lord ran well enough in the Hennessay, probably did not stay the trip. Have worked the form out as if he is a non-runner. 3% 33/1 Caribou 22/1 0.5% 200/1 Aristoxene 66/1 2% 50/1 It’s Crucial 28/1 100% (121.8%) 3:45 Newbury Woolcombe Folley is once raced in the Champion bumper at Aintree (2m1f on good-soft). Only 6/1 that day and assistant trainer told me they hope he will end up at Cheltenham in March. Does not look that much to beat amongst those already with a run and it is always difficult to win first time out on heavy going. Though the selections ability to handle conditions has to be taken on trust.

[Gingertipster]

Re: Gingers Jumpers With the strong wind in their faces up the straight stamina is at an absolute premium today at Newbury. Good performances of Barber Shop and One Gulp (real stayers) and the times remarkably slow. Horses have to be able to stay half a mile further than the trip run over. Therefore: Addition 2:40 Newbury £20 @ 13/2 (skybet) Preacher Boy (18% 9/2) Anyone betting now could make this as the main bet with savers on the other two main bets. Though the drift of Aztec Warrior suggests he will be a non runner.

[Gingertipster]

Re: Gingers Jumpers Newbury Festival Results Friday 1:00 Newbury £100 @ 3/1 Soliya 1st Return £446.00 £10 @ 3.6/1 Soliya cs £110 cp 24.7% 3/1 £336.00 Profit 2:05 Newbury £28 @ 12/1 That’s Rhythm £28 @ 10.5/1 Miko De Beauchene 2nd £9 @ 11.5/1 According To Pete £4 @ 24/1 Accordillo £28 @ 6.4/1 Eden Linty 1st Return £301.10 £10 @ 8.4/1 Eden Linty cs £107 cp 41% 11/8 £194.10 Profit 2:35 Newbury £66 @ 4/1 Hobbs Hill 1st Return £330.00 cp 20% 4/1 £264.00 Profit 3:40 Newbury £36 @ 7.8/1 The Package 1st Return £316.80 £40 @ Evens Theatrical Moment 3rd cs £76 cp 61.4% 8/13 £240.80 Profit Fridays Return £1393.90 Stakes £359.00 Days Profit £1034.90 Saturday 1:35 Newbury £50 @ 5.8/1 Magic Sky 3rd £50 @ 6.8/1 Bohemian Spirit 2nd cp 27.5% 11/4 -£100 Defecit 2:05 Newbury £50 @ 6.6/1 Special Envoy 2nd £35 @ 7.2/1 Blazing Bailey £15 @ 5.8/1 Kasbah Bliss 3rd cp 40.1% 6/4 -£100 Defecit 2:40 Newbury £18 @ 18.5/1 Dom Dorgeval £22 @ 18/1 Sir Rembrandt £30 @ 6/1 Snowy Morning £15 @ 5.4/1 Denman 1st Return £96.00 cs £85 cp 40.2% 6/4 £11.00 Profit 3:15 Newbury £80 @ 3/1 Maljimar (brought down) £20 @ 9/1 The Entomologist Non-runner cp 25% 3/1 -£80 Defecit Saturdays Return £96.00 Stakes £365.00 Days Defecit -£269.00 Sundays Results 12:30 Newbury £57 @ 5.2/1 Senora Snoopy 16.1% 11/2 -£57 Defecit 2:40 Newbury £30 @ 8.8/1 Cousin Nicky £40 @ 6.8/1 Aztec Warrior 3rd £9 @ 8.4/1 Nice Try £20 @ 13/2 Preacher Boy cp 46.9% 11/10 -£99 Defecit 3:45 Newbury £133 @ 2.1/1 Woolcombe Folly 2nd 32.3% 85/40 -£133 Defecit Sundays Return £00.00 Stakes £289.00 Days Defecit -£289.00 Newbury Festival Returns £1489.90 Stakes £1013.00 Newbury Festival £476.90 Profit

[Gingertipster]

Re: Gingers Jumpers Total Return £3839.60 Total Stakes £2309 Total Profit £1530.60 66.3% Avg. bet per race £92.36 Avg. price taken per race 907.7 (32.4%) 85/40 Avg. price per horse 70HB (13.0%) 13/2 Avg. price per winner 271.5 (20.9%) 4/1 Strike Rate 13 / 25 52% Next bet probably wednesday night for Wincanton Thursday. Have included my average bet so IF anyone wants to follow my tips, they can judge what stake would be comfortable for them.

[Gingertipster]

Re: Gingers Jumpers 3:10 Wincanton £80 @ 2.65/1 Fine By Me (35% 15/8) £25 @ 3.4/1 Trust Fund (30.5% 9/4) 1:40 Wincanton £67 @ 3.4/1 Barton Legend (31% 9/4) £18 @ 3.8/1 Monsieur Villez (27% 11/4)

[Gingertipster]

Re: Gingers Jumpers 1:40 Wincanton 31% 9/4 Barton Legend 2/1 0.25% 400/1 Opal Bridge 100/1 9.25% 10/1 Clifton Boy 8/1 7% 14/1 Just Smudge 11/1 7% 14/1 Bartercard 11/1 11.25% 8/1 Raki Rose 15/2 27% 11/4 Monsieur Villez 5/2 1.5% 66/1 Farmer Brent 40/1 2% 50/1 See More Jock 33/1 3.5% 28/1 Rudivale 20/1 0.25% 400/1 Kandora 100/1 100% (113.7%) Barton Legend ran a promising race on his reappearance, first time for excellent small trainer Dr. Newland. A trainer heading for greater things, I would put him in the top 15 in the country. As such Barton Legend is probably capable of better. Proven at 2 ½ miles and acts well on soft. Would have liked a professional jockey but the price reflects that. Monsieur Villez is another not long with his present trainer and may be able to improve. He ran reasonably enough to be second last time out in just an ordinary race. However, that was on good-firm and is probably better with more cut. Hopefully there will not be too much pace in the race as both selections can race prominently, there are at least two other pace horses in there as well. Keep an eye on Clifton Boy (ridden by a 10lb claimer unless his stable companion comes out) for any market move. A hold up horse who stay and acts. 3:10 Wincanton 30.5% 9/4 Trust Fund 85/40 5% 20/1 Even More 15/1 4.75% 20/1 Wizard Of Edge 15/1 5% 20/1 Presence Of Mind 14/1 11% 8/1 Luska de Pembo 13/2 35% 15/8 Fine By Me 13/8 3.5% 28/1 Classic Clover 20/1 2% 50/1 Midnight Gunner 33/1 3.25% 28/1 Blunham Mill 25/1 100% (114.4%) Trust Fund has his first run for Paul Nicholls and if coming back to form will take plenty of beating. He stays well and proven on soft going. Fine By Me won a three finisher race last time out at Plumpton (3 ¼ miles on good-soft). Has had little experience over fences, seems to jump well though and probably capable of better. Luska de Pembo is a clear 3rd choice. Anyone who likes bigger prices could go for this each way. Improved on a sound surface in the summer but was equally effective on soft last term. The others do not impress me much. More bets possible in the morning. Stakes overnight are reduced slightly as going likely to change, though all selections are proven on soft.

[Gingertipster]

Re: Gingers Jumpers 2:40 Wincanton £30 @ 9.8/1 Monfils Monfils (16.75% 5/1) Might come back with other late bets.

[Gingertipster]

Re: Gingers Jumpers 2:40 Wincanton 31% 9/4 Prime Contender 15/8 4% 22/1 Master Mahogany 16/1 6% 16/1 Dusty Dane 12/1 2.5% 40/1 Pocket Too 28/1 16.75% 5/1Monfils Monfils 9/2 10% 9/1 Voire Dire 15/2 18% 9/2 Premier Hope 4/1 1.5% 66/1 Sonoma 40/1 0.25% 400/1 Triple Bluff 100/1 9% 10/1 Compton Star 17/2 1% 100/1 Galant Eye 50/1 100% (117.6%) Prime Contender no doubt has the best chance but is too short. Easy winner (nov 28) on his reappearance (2m good-soft), bounce factor could come in to play. His record is a bit in and out. Is the improver in an exposed looking field. Does act on soft but would not like too much of a stamina test. Monfils Monfils’s last race can be forgotten, always up there in a strongly run race. Faded for his claiming jockey and Micky Fitz takes over today. Time before was on good ground and his win was on soft. Lightly raced so improvement a possibility and racing prominently can be an advantage here. Dusty Dane is interesting, long way behind the fav last time but an increased test may reduce the defecit (stays further). Voire Dire ran well on his first jumping start for some time, 4th of 9 over 19 furlongs at Stratford on good. Has some form on very soft. Premier Hope faded over 2 ½ miles (good-firm). Back to 2m today but his improved run last season was on a sound surface. If he acts on the ground has a good chance on the book. The others do not make much appeal on ground or rescent form.

[Gingertipster]

Re: Gingers Jumpers 2:40 Wincanton £10 each way @ 16/1 Voire Dire

[Gingertipster]

Re: Gingers Jumpers 1:55 Sandown £28 @ 8.6/1 Kealshore Boy (15.5% 11/2) £6 @ 43/1 Talenti (4% 25/1) £5 @ 7.4/1 Mount Oscar (14.5% 6/1) 2:30 Sandown £38 @ 5.6/1 Fair Question (20% 4/1) £13 @ 4.4/1 Glaskar Mill (22% 7/2) £18 @ 3/1 Ungaro (28% 5/2) Analysis to come

[Gingertipster]

Re: Gingers Jumpers 1:55 Sandown 33% 2/1 Lightning Strike should be favourite but in my opinion does not have the chance his current price now suggests. Ran promisingly in the top novice races last season. Will be suited by going up in trip and stable in fantastic form but there are other unexposed horses in the field. He did whip round at the start once at Salisbury. 7/4 6% 16/1 Hills Of Aran 12/1 14.5% 6/1 Mount Oscar was impressive in his last start by 9 lengths at Kempton. His ability to handle the ground must be taken on trust. Richard Rowe is in the form of his life and if trained by a top stable would be quite a bit shorter. 5/1 15.5% 11/2 Kealshore Boy was bought for 290,000 guinees before the start of the season. Won two bumpers on heavy last term before 2nd in a good race at Aintree in may. Fell when a certain winner of his reappearance, if over that performance should run well at a big price. From the family of stayer Southern Star he should be much better at this trip. 9/2 0.005% 2000/1 Lysanders Quest 1000/1 28% 5/2 Nakai won a poor race without coming off the bridle. Comes back from 3 miles but with heavy going today it will be an even greater test. Could be anything but this is a far better race. 9/4 4% 25/1Talenti was not knocked about on debut in a class 2 at Ascot when his chance had gone. Trainers horses can come on a good deal for their first run. Won a maiden on flat debut for Aiden O’Brien in 2006. Thought good enough to run in a group 3 on second (last) start (13/2, 1 1/4m heavy going) finished last. Very well bred but not absolutely certain to stay. 16/1 2:30 Sandown Hope you forgive me for backing 3 horses in a five horse race. 6.5% 15/1 Did think of laying Turko instead as he is in my opinion a very poor price. Pulled up after going very lame on reappearance. Even on his best form has to find a good deal. Had the benefit of the unfair 4 / 5 year olds allowance last year and has not always impressed with his attitude. 12/1 29% 5/2 Ungaro disappointed when possibly needed his reappearance but running o.k. last time before losing his chance with a bad mistake (hurdles). Stays well and proven on the ground. 9/4 22% 7/2 Glaskar Mill is likely to be suited by going up in trip. Is a good looking sort and might be able to improve. Winner on heavy. Will need to jump better than last time at Cheltenham. 3/1 20% 4/1 Fair Question is another who needs to jump better but goes well on very soft and stays well. Ran well for a long way on reappearance over hurdles before fading. Stable now in much better form. May be able to improve (needs to) and get a soft lead out in front. 7/2 22.5% 7/2 Hard Act To Follow has had one run and one very easy win over fences. Looks a bit short for one so inexperieced. Lightly raced good looking horse who could be anything. 3/1

[Gingertipster]

Re: Gingers Jumpers 2:35 Sandown £40 @ 6.2/1 Ashley Brook (16.5% 5/1) £17 @ 3.3/1 Monet's Garden (26.25% 11/4) £12 @ 5/1 Twist Magic (19% 9/2) more later

[Gingertipster]

Re: Gingers Jumpers 2:35 Sandown 16.5% Ashley Brook was still going o.k. when falling at Aintree, too far out to know where he would have finished. The probability is that he retains all his ability. The likely heavy going should bring his stamina in to play though a lot will depend on Brennen’s judgement of pace. Was staying on again when falling at the last in the Champion Chase (probably have been 2nd). He is a better jumper than his recent form figures suggest (bold and attacking). Hopefully Ashley Brook’s confidence will not be dented. Races Prominently. 9/2 0.05% 2000/1 Demi Beau can only win if the others allow him a 30 length start. Races Prominently. 500/1 2.5% 40/1Hoo La Baloo can race prominently but does not have to. Unproven on very soft going. Should not be good enough but is in form from an in form stable. 28/1 26.25% 11/4 Monet’s Garden beat Kauto Star getting plenty of weight but even that form may well be good enough here. Not much between him and the favourite at their best. Both have improved since the Arkle. Like Ashley Brook the going might help him over the trip. Probably acts on any going. Races Prominently / tracks pace. 5/2 1.5% 66/1 Oneway ran well in this last season on his reappearance (3rd), should not be good enough but if a couple of the better fancied runners perform badly might sneak a place. (Percentages given are for win only betting). Held up / tracks pace. 33/1 0.25% 400/1 River City 3rd in the Champion (no chance with winner). Gives the impression he is at his best on a sound surface. Has not hit form this season and trainer seems out of form. Held up. 100/1 19% 9/2 Twist Magic is thought by connections to be best on a sound surface but has won a chase at Wincanton on soft. It is true though, he does give the impression speed is his best asset. Might be a backable price if Paul Nicholls goes against in his Racing Posy column. Held up 7/2 34% 15/8 Voy Por Estudes seems to be a rediculously short price to me. Ran o.k. on his reappearance, no more than that. Should act on the going (acts on good and soft). Conditions probably do suit him better than his main rivals and possibly only does just enough. His fast fluent jumping will not be such an asset on this going. Has the best chance but is opposable at the prices. Race prominently / tracks pace though will possibly sit off the pace today. 7/4 No more bets until the morning, looking mainly at the 3:40.