Gingers Jumpers

[Gingertipster]

Will give my tips for the 07/08 Jumps season here. Tips are those horses I believe are value from my own form study. Prices taken are the best price available at the time of the "advice", usually Betfair. I never take SP as there is no knowing if it will be value. Figures in brackets will be the percentage chance I believe the tip has of winning with equivalent price. Below is the Table of odds and chances. Evens 50% , 21/20 48.8% , 11/10 47.6% , 6/5 45.5% , 5/4 44.4% , 11/8 42.1% , 6/4 40.0% , 13/8 38.1% , 7/4 36.4% , 15/8 34.8% , 2/1 33.3% , 85/40 32.0% , 9/4 30.8% , 5/2 28.6% , 11/4 26.7% , 3/1 25.0% , 100/30 23.1% , 7/2 22.2% , 4/1 20.0% , 9/2 18.2% , 5/1 16.7% , 11/2 15.4% , 6/1 14.3% , 13/2 13.3% , 7/1 12.5% , 15/2 11.7% , 8/1 11.1% , 17/2 10.5% , 9/1 10.0% , 10/1 9.1% , 11/1 8.3% , 12/1 7.7% , 13/1 7.1% , 14/1 6.7% , 15/1 6.2% , 16/1 5.9% , 18/1 5.3% , 20/1 4.8% , 22/1 4.3% , 25/1 3.8% , 28/1 3.4% , 33/1 3.0% , 40/1 2.4% , 50/1 2.0% , 66/1 1.5% , 80/1 1.2% , 100/1 1.0% , 200/1 0.5% , 300/1 0.3% , 500/1 0.2% , 1000/1 0.1% To calculate odds on percentages it is easiest to take away the odds against equivalent from 100. e.g. 1/2 = 100 - 33.3 (2/1) = 66.7%. No bet at odds on. Any horse I believe has a 33% chance I will back if I can get better than 2/1. 18% would be 9/2 etc. Taking the best price available at the time of the bet. Staking plan: My main bet is the amount I would have to bet to win £200 at the price / chance I believe the horse has. e.g. With a horse I believe has a 33% chance that is best price 3/1, £100 @ 2/1 would win £200 so £100 @ 3/1 is the bet. After that there are half bets or saver bets on other horses I think are value. Maximum bet on one horse £180, max bet on a race £200. Even though it might be value at a short price, do not want to risk losing too much in one go.

[Gingertipster]

Re: Gingers Jumpers 2:35 Cheltenham Have already backed Granit Jack myself ante-post (6/1) but can not advise at current prices. Might come back to advise a saver if getting to 4/1 or bigger. £27 @ 9.5/1 Copsale Lad (11.5% 15/2) £17 @ 16.5/1 Private Be (7.75% 12/1) £14 @ 21/1 Three Mirrors (6.75% 14/1) £6 @ 84/1 Il Duce (2.75% 33/1) £5 @ 99/1 Billyvoddan (2.25% 40/1) 3:10 Cheltenham £57 @ 4.7/1 Sonnyanjoe (22.5% 7/2) £10 @ 7/1 Juveigneur (15% 11/2) £13 @ 35/1 Gold Gun (6.25% 15/1) 3:40 Cheltenham £33 @ 8/1 D'Argent (14.5% 6/1) £12 @ 11.5/1 Sir Rembrandt (12.5% 7/1) £10 @ 9/2 Bob Bob Bobbin (20% 4/1) Analysis to come.