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Contrary System (NBA 07/08)


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This made a small profit last year and showed a yield of around 4% so I may as well give it a go again. We're a few games into the new season now so should start showing up picks.

Something I have been watching elsewhere is a study regarding the parity of NFL teams and ATS (Against The Spread or Handicap) betting. The thinking behind the theory is that because of this parity on any given Sunday one NFL team can beat another. This is backed up by a study which claims that a high percentage of teams who have an ATS streak of 2 or more wins or losses would do the opposite in the third game. The longest winning streak (ATS) of the NFL teams is just under 2.84 games on average, and the longest losing streak (ATS) is at 2.8 games, on average. What I propose to do, with a starting bank of 1000 pts is to see if this can prove to be a profitable statistic not only on NFL, but also NBA. As an example only I will list the qualifying teams from tonights NFL games, most of which are already underway. Won 2 Arizona +6.5 New England -13.5 Won 3 Tennessee +7.5 Oakland -3.0 Dallas -3.5 Won 4 Buffalo +6.0 San Fran +7.0 Miami +1.0 Lost 2 St. Louis -6.5 Houston +3.0 Philadelphia +3.0 Lost 3 Detroit +13.5 Denver -4.0 Lost 4 Atlanta +4.0 NY Giants +3.5 Lost 5 Minnesota +9.5 So, if the team is on a winning streak I will be taking their opponents ATS, and if they are on a losing streak I will back them ATS. If I can get organised in time I'll put up picks for tonight. If not then I'll start tomorrow. :hope System Amendment 03/02/07 (applies to NBA only) - When the only reason for selecting a game is that only one team is on a 2 game ATS streak, the results after 121 bets are showing a loss of 55.70 pts. When these games are removed from the system there is a huge upturn in all system stats. For this reason I am no longer selecting games when teams are on a 2 game streak, unless the opponents are also on the opposing streak, eg, Miami Heat W2 @ Utah L2. This will still be a selection. See Post 170 for further details.
If I'm quick I may get some picks for tonights games. If not then I think the next ones are Monday. :ok
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Re: Contrary System (NBA 07/08) Orlando have won 4 ATS (Phoenix L2) Phoenix Suns(-1.5) @ Orlando Magic @ 1.89 Boston have won 4 ATS (New Jersey Nets L1) Boston Celtics @ New Jersey Nets(+2) @ 2.11 Utah Jazz have lost 3 ATS (Memphis L1) Memphis Grizzlies @ Utah jazz(-10.5) @ 1.89 Portland have won 3 ATS (Dallas L1) Dallas Mavericks(-8) @ Portland Trailblazers @ 1.94 100pt starting bank. 4 bets @ 5pts per bet=20pts staked :hope Enjoy the ride..... ;)

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Re: Contrary System (NBA 07/08) Thanks Kev. :D

Orlando have won 4 ATS (Phoenix L2) Phoenix Suns(-1.5) @ Orlando Magic @ 1.89 :D Boston have won 4 ATS (New Jersey Nets L1) Boston Celtics @ New Jersey Nets(+2) @ 2.11 :( Utah Jazz have lost 3 ATS (Memphis L1) Memphis Grizzlies @ Utah jazz(-10.5) @ 1.89 :D Portland have won 3 ATS (Dallas L1) Dallas Mavericks(-8) @ Portland Trailblazers @ 1.94 :( 100pt starting bank. 4 bets @ 5pts per bet=20pts staked :hope Enjoy the ride..... ;)
2 winners 2 losers 20pts staked 18.90pts returned. Total staked:20 Number of bets:4 Winning bets:2 Losing bets:2 Push bets: Strike rate:50% Current Bamk:98.90 Yield:-5.5% Profit (or Loss):-1.10
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Re: Contrary System (NBA 07/08)

Just one for tonight; Sacramento have won 3 ATS (Utah W1) Sacramento Kings @ Utah Jazz(-13.5) @ 1.92 1 bet @ 4.94pts. :hope
1 winner 4.94pts staked 9.48pts returned Total staked:24.94 Number of bets:5 Winning bets:3 Losing bets:2 Push bets: Strike rate:60% Current Bank:103.44 Yield:13.79% Profit (or Loss):3.44
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Re: Contrary System (NBA 07/08)

Boston have won 5 AND Indiana have lost 3 ATS Boston Celtics @ Indiana Pacers(+6.5) @ 2.00 :( Portland have won 4 ATS (Detroit L1) Detroit Pistons(-5) @ Portland Trailblazers @ 1.95 2 bets @ 5.17pts per bet=10.34pts staked :( :hope
2 losers Total staked:34.28 Number of bets:7 Winning bets:3 Losing bets:4 Push bets: Strike rate:42.86% Current Bank:93.10 Yield:-20.13% Profit (or Loss):-6.90
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Re: Contrary System (NBA 07/08) Indiana have lost 4 ATS (Washington W1) Indiana Pacers(+6.5) @ Washington Wizards @ 1.93 Charlotte have won 3 ATS (Atlanta L2) Charlotte Bobcats @ Atlanta Hawks(-5.5) @ 1.94 Boston have won 6 ATS(New Jersey Push) New Jersey Nets(+10.5) @ Boston Celtics @ 1.96 Minnesota have lost 3 ATS (Sacramento L1) Sacramento Kings @ Minnesota Timberwolves(-2) @ 1.94 4 bets @ 4.65pts per bet=18.60pts staked. :hope

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Re: Contrary System (NBA 07/08)

Indiana have lost 4 ATS (Washington W1) Indiana Pacers(+6.5) @ Washington Wizards @ 1.93 :( Charlotte have won 3 ATS (Atlanta L2) Charlotte Bobcats @ Atlanta Hawks(-5.5) @ 1.94 :D Boston have won 6 ATS(New Jersey Push) New Jersey Nets(+10.5) @ Boston Celtics @ 1.96 :( Minnesota have lost 3 ATS (Sacramento L1) Sacramento Kings @ Minnesota Timberwolves(-2) @ 1.94 :D 4 bets @ 4.65pts per bet=18.60pts staked. :hope
2 winners 2 losers 18.60pts staked 18.04pts returned Number of bets:11 Winning bets:5 Losing bets:6 Push bets:Strike rate:45.45% Total staked:52.88 Current Bank:92.54 Yield:-14.11% Profit (or Loss):-7.46
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Re: Contrary System (NBA 07/08)

San Antonio have won 3 ATS (Dallas W1) San Antonio Spurs @ Dallas Mavericks(-2.5) @ 2.01 1 bet @ 4.62pts :hope
1 winner 9.29pts returned Number of bets:12 Winning bets:6 Losing bets:6 Push bets: Strike rate:50% Total staked:57.50 Current Bank:97.21 Yield:-4.85% Profit (or Loss):-2.79
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Re: Contrary System (NBA 07/08) Philadelphia have lost 3 ATS (Portland L1) Portland Trailblazers @ Philadelphia 76ers(-2.5) @ 1.95 Indiana have lost 5 ATS (Toronto L1) Indiana Pacers(+8) @ Toronto Raptors @ 1.89 Miami have lost 2 and Boston have won 7 ATS Miami Heat(+11) @ Boston Celtics @ 1.92 Utah have won 3 and Clevelnad have lost 2 ATS Utah Jazz @ Cleveland Cavaliers(ML) @ 2.03 Houston have lost 3 ATS (San Antonio L1) Houston Rockets(+9) @ San Antonio Spurs @ 1.98 The Knicks have won 2 and Sacramento have lost 2 ATS New York Knicks @ Sacramento Kings(-2.5) @ 1.89 The Clippers have lost 3 ATS (Golden State L1) LA Clippers(+4.5) @ Golden State Warriors @ 1.99 7 bets @ 4.86pts per bet=34.02pts :hope

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Re: Contrary System (NBA 07/08)

Philadelphia have lost 3 ATS (Portland L1) Portland Trailblazers @ Philadelphia 76ers(-2.5) @ 1.95 :D Indiana have lost 5 ATS (Toronto L1) Indiana Pacers(+8) @ Toronto Raptors @ 1.89 :( Miami have lost 2 and Boston have won 7 ATS Miami Heat(+11) @ Boston Celtics @ 1.92 :D Utah have won 3 and Clevelnad have lost 2 ATS Utah Jazz @ Cleveland Cavaliers(ML) @ 2.03 :D Houston have lost 3 ATS (San Antonio L1) Houston Rockets(+9) @ San Antonio Spurs @ 1.98 :D The Knicks have won 2 and Sacramento have lost 2 ATS New York Knicks @ Sacramento Kings(-2.5) @ 1.89 :D The Clippers have lost 3 ATS (Golden State L1) LA Clippers(+4.5) @ Golden State Warriors @ 1.99 :( 7 bets @ 4.86pts per bet=34.02pts :hope
5 winners 2 losers 34.02pts staked 47.48pts returned Number of bets:19 Winning bets:11 Losing bets:8 Push bets: Strike rate:57.89% Total staked:91.52 Current Bank:110.67 Yield:11.66% Profit (or loss):10.67
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Re: Contrary System (NBA 07/08) Portland have lost 2 and Washington have won 3 ATS Portland Trailblazers(+7) @ Washington Wizards @ 1.91 Indiana have lost 6 ATS (Utah L1) Utah Jazz @ Indiana Pacers(+5.5) @ 1.93 Milwaukee have lost 3 ATS (Atlanta L1) Atlanta Hawks @ Milwaukee Bucks(-8) @ 1.85 Denver have won 4 ATS (the Knicks L1) NY Knicks(+12.5) @ Denver Nuggets @ 2.00 4 bets @ 5.53pts per bet=22.12pts staked :hope

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Re: Contrary System (NBA 07/08)

Portland have lost 2 and Washington have won 3 ATS Portland Trailblazers(+7) @ Washington Wizards @ 1.91 :( Indiana have lost 6 ATS (Utah L1) Utah Jazz @ Indiana Pacers(+5.5) @ 1.93 :D Milwaukee have lost 3 ATS (Atlanta L1) Atlanta Hawks @ Milwaukee Bucks(-8) @ 1.85 :D Denver have won 4 ATS (the Knicks L1) NY Knicks(+12.5) @ Denver Nuggets @ 2.00 :( 4 bets @ 5.53pts per bet=22.12pts staked :hope
2 winners 2 losers 22.12pts staked 20.90pts returned Number of bets:23 Winning bets:13 Losing bets:10 Push bets: Strike rate:56.52% Total staked:113.64 Current Bank:109.45 Yield:8.32% Profit (or loss):9.45
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Re: Contrary System (NBA 07/08) hi i did a little check on 1995 to present season on ur system and u cant expekt much profit in long term. any way here are results: team on 2 ats WINNING streak vs team on 2 ats LOSING - fair odds 1,97 team on 3 or more ats LOSING streak - fair odds 1,965 team on 3 or more ats WINNING streak - fair odds 1,94 so u would have to get very good odds every time...u have the edge over the line, but with 1,96 avg odds its very difficullt to gain much if any profit. but there are some interesting turning points there i think u took a look form wrong side - no recreational punter is looking at ats streak...but W/L at thats when lines move if one team is on good or bad streak... if u look at SU streaks only, and only bet when BOTH teams are on 2 or more SU streaks (one on positive and other one on negative streak) fair odds turn to 1,92 - and since u can get 1,95 (or slightly better) nowdays on NBA, that one would be beatable i nthe long run... also if u take out game where team u put money on is on 0 days rest- u get 1,895 for fair odds... hope this helps... id be happy to backtest any other ideas in nba u might have just PM me

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Re: Contrary System (NBA 07/08) Hi Toples, :welcome Thanks for posting and sharing it. Much appreciated. I'm having fun with this win or lose so I guess I'll keep going with it for now.

if u look at SU streaks only, and only bet when BOTH teams are on 2 or more SU streaks (one on positive and other one on negative streak) fair odds turn to 1,92
I'm surprised at the results for win/loss streaks as I thought that would have been a little more obvious and the line makers would have accounted for this.
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Re: Contrary System (NBA 07/08)

Orlando have won 3 ATS(Boston L1) Boston Celtics(-1) @ Orlando Magic @ 1.92 :( 1 bet @ 5.47pts. :hope
1 loser Number of bets:24 Winning bets:13 Losing bets:11 Push bets: Strike rate:54.17% Total staked:119.11 Current Bank:103.98 Yield:3.34% Profit (or loss):3.98
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Re: Contrary System (NBA 07/08) Portland have lost 3 ATS (Charlotte W1) Portland Trailblazers(+5.5) @ CHarlotte Bobcats @ 2.01 Memphis have won 4 ATS (Seattle L1) Seattle Supersonics(+6) @ Memphis Grizzlies @ 1.93 Orlando have won 4 ATS (New Orleans W1) Orlando Magic @ New Orleans Hornets(-1) @ 1.95 3 bets @ 5.20pts per bet=15.60pts staked :hope

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Re: Contrary System (NBA 07/08)

Hi Toples, :welcome Thanks for posting and sharing it. Much appreciated. I'm having fun with this win or lose so I guess I'll keep going with it for now. I'm surprised at the results for win/loss streaks as I thought that would have been a little more obvious and the line makers would have accounted for this.
well, GL then, it might be difficult to win, but u wont lose much either. linemakers have to make sure 50% of money goes on both sides, so fair line is usually driven towards good teams. its that way in most US sports... also noticed u have similar NFL trend thread and will take a look at the rules and backtest it....
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Re: Contrary System (NBA 07/08)

Portland have lost 3 ATS (Charlotte W1) Portland Trailblazers(+5.5) @ CHarlotte Bobcats @ 2.01 :( Memphis have won 4 ATS (Seattle L1) Seattle Supersonics(+6) @ Memphis Grizzlies @ 1.93 :( Orlando have won 4 ATS (New Orleans W1) Orlando Magic @ New Orleans Hornets(-1) @ 1.95 :( 3 bets @ 5.20pts per bet=15.60pts staked :hope
3 losers Number of bets:27 Winning bets:13 Losing bets:14 Push bets: Strike rate:48.15% Total staked:134.71 Current Bank:88.38 Yield:-8.63% Profit (or loss):-11.62
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Re: Contrary System (NBA 07/08) Washington have won 4 ATS (Philly W1) Philadelphia 76ers(+6.5) @ Washington Wizards @ 1.93 LA Lakers have won 3 ATS (Indiana W1) LA Lakers @ Indiana Pacers(+2) @ 1.97 Golden State have won 2 and New York have lost 2 ATS Golden State Warriors @ New York Knicks(+2) @ 1.98 Denver have won 5 ATS (Chicago L1) Chicago Bulls(+8) @ Denver Nuggets @ 1.89 4 bets @ 4.41=17.64pts staked :hope

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Re: Contrary System (NBA 07/08)

Washington have won 4 ATS (Philly W1) Philadelphia 76ers(+6.5) @ Washington Wizards @ 1.93 :( LA Lakers have won 3 ATS (Indiana W1) LA Lakers @ Indiana Pacers(+2) @ 1.97 :( Golden State have won 2 and New York have lost 2 ATS Golden State Warriors @ New York Knicks(+2) @ 1.98 :( Denver have won 5 ATS (Chicago L1) Chicago Bulls(+8) @ Denver Nuggets @ 1.89 :( 4 bets @ 4.41=17.64pts staked :hope
Number of bets:31 Winning bets:13 Losing bets:18 Push bets: Strike rate:41.94% Total staked:152.35 Current Bank:70.74 Yield:-19.21% Profit (or loss):-29.26
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Re: Contrary System (NBA 07/08) Golden State have won 3 and Boston have lost 2 ATS Golden State Warriors @ Boston Celtics(-11) @ 1.98 Atlanta have lost 3 and Miami have won 2 ATS Atlanta Hawks(+8) @ Miami Heat @ 1.99 Memphis have won 5 ATS (Toronto W1) Toronto Raptors(+3.5) @ Memphis Grizzlies @ 1.99 Orlando have won 5 ATS (San Antonio W1) Orlando Magic @ San Antonio Spurs(-6) @ 1.92 Sacramento have won 3 ATS (Phoenix L1) Sacramento Kings @ Phoenix Sun(-12.5) @ 1.94 Denver have won 6 and the Clippers have lost 5 ATS Denver Nuggets @ LA Clippers(+6.5) @ 1.97 6 bets @ 3.53=21.18pts staked :hope

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Re: Contrary System (NBA 07/08)

Golden State have won 3 and Boston have lost 2 ATS Golden State Warriors @ Boston Celtics(-11) @ 1.98 :D Atlanta have lost 3 and Miami have won 2 ATS Atlanta Hawks(+8) @ Miami Heat @ 1.99 :D Memphis have won 5 ATS (Toronto W1) Toronto Raptors(+3.5) @ Memphis Grizzlies @ 1.99 :D Orlando have won 5 ATS (San Antonio W1) Orlando Magic @ San Antonio Spurs(-6) @ 1.92 :D Sacramento have won 3 ATS (Phoenix L1) Sacramento Kings @ Phoenix Sun(-12.5) @ 1.94 :D Denver have won 6 and the Clippers have lost 5 ATS Denver Nuggets @ LA Clippers(+6.5) @ 1.97 :D 6 bets @ 3.53=21.18pts staked :hope
6 winners 21.18pts staked 41.62pts returned Number of bets:37 Winning bets:19 Losing bets:18 Push bets: Strike rate:51.35% Total staked:173.53 Current Bank:91.18 Yield:-5.08% Profit (or loss):-8.82
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Re: Contrary System (NBA 07/08) Washington have won 6 ATS (Golden State L1) Golden State Warriors(-2) @ Washington Wizards @ 2.00 Minnesota have lost 3 (Denver L1) Minnesota Timberwolves(+14) @ Denver Nuggets @ 1.98 Portland have lost 5 (Sacramento L1) Sacramento Kings @ Portland Trailblazers(-5) @ 2.03 3 bets @ 4.55pts per bet=13.65pts per bet :hope

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Re: Contrary System (NBA 07/08)

Washington have won 6 ATS (Golden State L1) Golden State Warriors(-2) @ Washington Wizards @ 2.00 :D Minnesota have lost 3 (Denver L1) Minnesota Timberwolves(+14) @ Denver Nuggets @ 1.98 :D Portland have lost 5 (Sacramento L1) Sacramento Kings @ Portland Trailblazers(-5) @ 2.03 :( 3 bets @ 4.55pts per bet=13.65pts per bet :hope
13.65pts staked 18.11pts returned Number of bets:40 Winning bets:21 Losing bets:19 Push bets: Strike rate:52.5% Total staked:187.18 Current Bank:95.64 Yield:-2.33% Profit (or loss):-4.36
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