Jumps Season 07/08 - Notebook & Ante Post Bets

[mileni4uk]

Re: Jumps Season 07/08 - Notebook & Ante Post Bets Any idea where Tamarinbleu will go? Queen Mother or Ryanair? Did David Pipe give an interview? Will appreciate the info!

[Gingertipster]

Re: Jumps Season 07/08 - Notebook & Ante Post Bets Don't really think he gave an answer Mileni, bookmakers have slashed his price for the Champion Chase though. One going as low as 5/1, with over double that available. But I doubt if he will have the pace unless it comes up soft (unlikely) anyway. If he were mine I'd wait and see what the ground is like before committing to one or the other. If you want to see how likely he is to go for the race, take a look at the betfair prices for the two races. If they are a lot different to the bookmakers prices I would hold back on any ante-post bets Mileni. Ginge

[mileni4uk]

Re: Jumps Season 07/08 - Notebook & Ante Post Bets The thing is he is as low as 6/1 for the Ryanair, but Centrebet have it at 14/1. They are US bookie I think and probably slow to react. That's why I am wondering if it's worth taking it.

[Tedthewolf]

Re: Jumps Season 07/08 - Notebook & Ante Post Bets NOLAND very impressive today i believe.Bring on the Arkle! Will be hard to beat imo.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Jumps Season 07/08 - Notebook & Ante Post Bets

NOLAND very impressive today i believe.Bring on the Arkle! Will be hard to beat imo.

Owner doesn't want to run it at the festival, mate :$

[Tedthewolf]

Re: Jumps Season 07/08 - Notebook & Ante Post Bets Noland set for Arkle bid after impressive victory by Bruce Jackson . NOLAND returned from a year off to push the door back open to an Arkle Trophy challenge with an impressive first effort over fences at Folkestone on Monday. There had been disagreement between trainer Paul Nicholls and owner John Hales over a possible Cheltenham tilt for the seven-year-old, winner of the Supreme Novices' Hurdle at the 2006 festival, before his chasing debut. However, all that seemed to be water under the bridge after he jumped to victory in the beginners' chase at a rainlashed and windswept Kent track under Ruby Walsh, for whom he was the only ride of the day. Bookmakers, perhaps cautious after Monday's Racing Post front-page story, did not go overboard afterwards, although he was promoted to Arkle joint-second favourite behind Tidal Bay in some places. Blue Square, Coral and Ladbrokes were notable in going 10-1 while Hills, Totesport and Paddy Power went 8-1. Try as Manhattan Boy and Polinamix might to get Noland to stretch through the 2m contest, the dual Grade 1 hurdle winner had too much class for his rivals and sauntered clear at the end of the back straight before running lazily to allow Polinamix to chase him home at a respectable distance of nine lengths. And the Irish Independent-sponsored Arkle seemed back on the agenda, although there were whispers that his other entry in the Royal & SunAlliance Chase could come under some consideration. Nicholls, speaking from his stables, said: "Looking at that, I don't need to go much furtherwith him. “He did that quite nicely - he just needs some experience. There are no big races for him to go in now but in ten days' time he ought to be able to go and have another race like that somewhere. "I have got to build on his experience. He jumped how he had been jumping at home, which is really pleasing. Whatever has been said he will definitely have an entry in the Arkle. John hasn't ruled it out at all. "Quite rightly he was concerned after what happened to Granit Jack and Noland not having had much experience. If we can get experience into him John is certainly not ruling it out." Assistant Dan Skelton, coming off the phone to an ecstatic Hales who had watched the race in a Bridgetown bookies in Barbados, echoed the trainer's thoughts and mentioned the Kingmaker Chase at Warwick on February 9 as a potential target. Walsh was delighted with Noland's display, particularly pleased with the novice's handling of the second-last when not on a stride. "He was really clever at the second-last and jumped well. He wasn't doing much in front, ears pricked, on that heavy ground. He was deadly." :)

[mileni4uk]

Re: Jumps Season 07/08 - Notebook & Ante Post Bets A ROW was on Sunday night brewing between the connections of leading Arkle fancy Noland as champion trainer Paul Nicholls was left stunned by the news that owner John Hales does not want to run him at the Cheltenham Festival. Hales on Sunday told the Racing Post that whatever happens, the 2006 Supreme Novices' Hurdle winner will not head for the Irish Independent sponsored chase ? for which he is prominent in the ante-post market at around the 12-1 mark ? or indeed any race at the festival. :lol

[mowgli77]

Re: Jumps Season 07/08 - Notebook & Ante Post Bets

I have a feeling The Rat may regret transferring Noland out but time will tell.

I wrote that in the PL 10 to follow after the recent update. ;)

[mileni4uk]

Re: Jumps Season 07/08 - Notebook & Ante Post Bets

I wrote that in the PL 10 to follow after the recent update. ;)

Oooops, very unlucky there Ratty :$

[TheRat]

Re: Jumps Season 07/08 - Notebook & Ante Post Bets Shut it :sad Smugness will get you nowhere ;)

[bowles10]

Re: Jumps Season 07/08 - Notebook & Ante Post Bets lets hope it takes on Tidal Bay at the festival. Will be a great race to watch. :hope Tidal bay has bags of experience now & also a course win. If Noland doesnt run again before the meeting, it will be there for Tidal Bay to take. Noland needs more experience than what it faced today. It wont get a run at Cheltenham before the festival so i expect it will go to Newbury or maybe Exeter if there is a decent nov chase to take in.

[danj2202]

Re: Jumps Season 07/08 - Notebook & Ante Post Bets

That's exactly what I was thinking. I think he does quite well on the flat but not great over jumps and is a bit overrated for the influence he has. It means you could lay it off at a lower price though if you ever manage to get the odds he suggests.

although saying this at the festival 06 he tipped up some ante post stuff at massive prices he had new mill star de mohaison and voy por ustedes and I think another at some very fancy prices, so I followed him last year ante post only and got one place at 7/1 on blazing bailey in the world hurdle :wall

[bowles10]

Re: Jumps Season 07/08 - Notebook & Ante Post Bets Pricewise previewed the Champion Hurdle today & tipped up EBAZIYAN & OSANA. As you know, i highlighted Ebaziyan on here last month & the following was on The Guardian's website this week in their preview. "The Champion Hurdle is the aim with Ebaziyan," said Mullins yesterday. "He gets two and a half miles, so we put him in the World Hurdle as an option. But I am assuming he will get better ground at Cheltenham than he has been running on so far this season, and he certainly came right in March last year." You can pick holes in the form of his Festival victory, but Ebaziyan stormed away up the hill to win in a time just 0.4s slower than Sublimity in the Champion an hour later. Directly comparing the two races, it was the best performance on the clock by a Supreme Novices' winner in the past six years. Prior to winning a minor contest at Punchestown recently, landing odds of 2-5, Ebaziyan had made little impact in Grade One events, finishing 12 lengths third behind Aitmatov in the Hatton's Grace at Fairyhouse and fourth behind Al Eile, Hardy Eustace and Jazz Messenger in the December Festival Hurdle at Leopardstown. Mullins is bringing Ebaziyan along steadily, though. "He had to run in those races to gain experience," says the trainer. "He just hasn't been able to go on the heavy ground we have been getting here. He'll run at Leopardstown next Sunday but I wouldn't be too worried about that either." Hope you can see the bit i contributed to in the article (in Bold red) :ok, it was nice of the fella to include it after all.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Jumps Season 07/08 - Notebook & Ante Post Bets The Betting Room still have 16/1 for Air Force One for the Sun Alliance. Worth a small nibble :ok

[mileni4uk]

Re: Jumps Season 07/08 - Notebook & Ante Post Bets

The Betting Room still have 16/1 for Air Force One for the Sun Alliance. Worth a small nibble :ok

Not anymore ... 12/1 best price :\

[WoodyTHFC]

Re: Jumps Season 07/08 - Notebook & Ante Post Bets Tomorrow, Aigle D'Or makes its second appearance at Cheltenham and I am interested not just tomorrow but also at 12/1 var. for the Ballymore Novices Hurdle 15 pts e.w. It is difficult about these types of races firstly to find what race they go in and also what the form adds up to but I believe they will go for this one, certainly its entry tomorrow suggests it will. It was a smart enough type on the flat when winning listed races in France and contesting in group 2s and just behind this years Arc fourth so that shows quite a good level of ability already. It showed adaptable in regards to ground as well. Since then it has had some problems and a while off the track before its hurdle debut but that is not always a bad thing in the long run. Its hurdle debut looked very impressive for Henderson who has had plenty of winners at the festival and McCoy who rode for his boss which already looks an interesting combination. It won very easily and eased down that day. The form of that is not necessarily up to festival winning class but it was a highly impressive debut and it should go on from that. It has recently been clipped to 12/1 and even shorter but that still could look quite big tomorrow. Certainly any sort of good performance tomorrow and I anticipate it will get shorter much the way Khyber Kim has in the Supreme for Henderson. Even if it did not perform tomorrow that would not completely rule it out of the festival picture even though it may be a bigger price. I will take a chance of a good run tomorrow and hopefully it will go well from there. Also looking at the possible runners for this race, I am not seeing too many leap out at me. Breedsbreeze I think is better on softer ground which is not as often encountered at the festival. Souffler has some questions to answer after lto now. Aranleigh could be more interesting on better ground at this trip after an inadequate trip lto imo and that would give a fit McCoy a decision but I will take a chance with the Henderson horse.

[WoodyTHFC]

Re: Jumps Season 07/08 - Notebook & Ante Post Bets

Tomorrow' date=' [b']Aigle D'Or makes its second appearance at Cheltenham and I am interested not just tomorrow but also at 12/1 var. for the Ballymore Novices Hurdle 15 pts e.w. It is difficult about these types of races firstly to find what race they go in and also what the form adds up to but I believe they will go for this one, certainly its entry tomorrow suggests it will. It was a smart enough type on the flat when winning listed races in France and contesting in group 2s and just behind this years Arc fourth so that shows quite a good level of ability already. It showed adaptable in regards to ground as well. Since then it has had some problems and a while off the track before its hurdle debut but that is not always a bad thing in the long run. Its hurdle debut looked very impressive for Henderson who has had plenty of winners at the festival and McCoy who rode for his boss which already looks an interesting combination. It won very easily and eased down that day. The form of that is not necessarily up to festival winning class but it was a highly impressive debut and it should go on from that. It has recently been clipped to 12/1 and even shorter but that still could look quite big tomorrow. Certainly any sort of good performance tomorrow and I anticipate it will get shorter much the way Khyber Kim has in the Supreme for Henderson. Even if it did not perform tomorrow that would not completely rule it out of the festival picture even though it may be a bigger price. I will take a chance of a good run tomorrow and hopefully it will go well from there. Also looking at the possible runners for this race, I am not seeing too many leap out at me. Breedsbreeze I think is better on softer ground which is not as often encountered at the festival. Souffler has some questions to answer after lto now. Aranleigh could be more interesting on better ground at this trip after an inadequate trip lto imo and that would give a fit McCoy a decision but I will take a chance with the Henderson horse.

Won pretty well and now as short as 5/1 in a place :hope

[mileni4uk]

Re: Jumps Season 07/08 - Notebook & Ante Post Bets

Pricewise previewed the Champion Hurdle today & tipped up EBAZIYAN & OSANA. As you know, i highlighted Ebaziyan on here last month & the following was on The Guardian's website this week in their preview. "The Champion Hurdle is the aim with Ebaziyan," said Mullins yesterday. "He gets two and a half miles, so we put him in the World Hurdle as an option. But I am assuming he will get better ground at Cheltenham than he has been running on so far this season, and he certainly came right in March last year." You can pick holes in the form of his Festival victory, but Ebaziyan stormed away up the hill to win in a time just 0.4s slower than Sublimity in the Champion an hour later. Directly comparing the two races, it was the best performance on the clock by a Supreme Novices' winner in the past six years. Prior to winning a minor contest at Punchestown recently, landing odds of 2-5, Ebaziyan had made little impact in Grade One events, finishing 12 lengths third behind Aitmatov in the Hatton's Grace at Fairyhouse and fourth behind Al Eile, Hardy Eustace and Jazz Messenger in the December Festival Hurdle at Leopardstown. Mullins is bringing Ebaziyan along steadily, though. "He had to run in those races to gain experience," says the trainer. "He just hasn't been able to go on the heavy ground we have been getting here. He'll run at Leopardstown next Sunday but I wouldn't be too worried about that either." Hope you can see the bit i contributed to in the article (in Bold red) :ok, it was nice of the fella to include it after all.

They might rethink after the demolition Sizing Europe performed today ;)

[mowgli77]

Re: Jumps Season 07/08 - Notebook & Ante Post Bets Ebaziyan was disappointing as was Aitmatov which was pulled up. No wonder Sizing Europe is now fav, it beat an unfit Sublimity so that match up will be interesting back at Cheltenham. Different class today from the winner, one to follow for a long while, I underestimated it and won't make that mistake again.

[bowles10]

Re: Jumps Season 07/08 - Notebook & Ante Post Bets

Ebaziyan was disappointing as was Aitmatov which was pulled up. No wonder Sizing Europe is now fav' date=' it beat an unfit Sublimity so that match up will be interesting back at Cheltenham. Different class today from the winner, one to follow for a long while, I underestimated it and won't make that mistake again.[/quote'] I wasnt worried about how well Ebaziyan would run today. It was never going to be its race but it needed to race again before Cheltenham. Cheltenham will be a different race entirely & whether Sizing Europe form is the right line (remember it beat Osana, who subsequently beat Sublimity at the track). Osana still remains a positive but not sure it will act on the better ground if its comes in time.

[WoodyTHFC]

Re: Jumps Season 07/08 - Notebook & Ante Post Bets Will add just the one more ante post for Champion Hurdle De Valira @ 50/1 Lad 5 pts e.w. Whilst the picture appears clearer now with Sizing Europe looking very good and Osana has to come into it as well on that line, there is still possibilities imo that a biggish price horse could do something in this race and if not win, run a good place effort so plumped for this one. Very good novice form last year in testing conditions and quicker, the run in Supreme was not that bad, ok finished midfield but travelled well for a long time before a slight error and as the trainer later admitted, he was in awful form then so there are excuses. However just looking at the novice form over hurdles and once in a bumper it regularly beat Sizing Europe and often convincingly and on different types of ground (3 times). Now Sizing europe is a different horse now and De Valira might not go on but @ 50/1 De Valira is too big imo on that sort of thinking. It apparently runs first time this season in the Red Mills so will have a prep and does have a CH entry.

[bowles10]

Re: Jumps Season 07/08 - Notebook & Ante Post Bets The Champion Hurdle trends are now shwoing heavily in Sizing Europes favour Key trends (updated with Sublimity's win from last year) 10/11 won last time out with the other finishing 2nd 9/11 won a graded race LTO (5 @ Gr1, 3 @ Gr2 & 1@ Gr3) 11/11 ran LTO in Jan or Feb 4/11 won AIG champion hurdle in Ireland before the festival 9/11 had 4 or more runs in the season 7/11 came into the race seeking a hat trick 10/11 had previous festival form 8/11 had won at a previous festival 10/11 were aged 6 to 8 9/11 were priced 10/1 or lower 0/11 were 5yo 7/11 were irish trained 5/11 were favs The ones highlighted in Red are fairly significant, will it have another run before the big race to make it 4 runs this season. it doesnt have festival form & thats about the only negative. Interestingly though, trouble at bay got within 5L of it at Cheltenham back in November. Five Dream slammed that horse yesterday by nearly 30L! I cant see Five Dream entered up for the Champion Hurdle but wherever it goes it must be respected. Afsoun is still a lively outsider for me at a big price over the min distance. Catch me is another in that form line with Sizing Europe, Looking at its form: Chelt March 07 - 3rd beaten 1.5L into 3rd by massinins Maguire & Tidal bay Punch April 07 - Fell last when 1L adrift of winner Glencove marina Fairy Dec 07 - Won by 13l to Big Zeb Thurles Dec 07 - Beaten at odds of 2/11 when a mistake cost it its chance. Seperated Sizing Europe & De valira in the race Woody refers to back in Dec 06 & ist the festival form that may put this one in with a chance at 66/1 Sportingbet, 33's elsewhere.

[WoodyTHFC]

Re: Jumps Season 07/08 - Notebook & Ante Post Bets Interesting point about Trouble at Bay. I backed it yesterday purely on that Sizing europe/Osana run were it was still carrying a fair bit of weight itself and it was RPF 25/1 which I thought was very big. Ended up shorter but was pumped along a fair way and was well beaten. As for Five Dream I believe it is going Totesport Gold Trophy at Newbury and as for festival targets remember it is only 4 and therefore the Triumph Hurdle could be an option.

[bowles10]

Re: Jumps Season 07/08 - Notebook & Ante Post Bets

Interesting point about Trouble at Bay. I backed it yesterday purely on that Sizing europe/Osana run were it was still carrying a fair bit of weight itself and it was RPF 25/1 which I thought was very big. Ended up shorter but was pumped along a fair way and was well beaten. As for Five Dream I believe it is going Totesport Gold Trophy at Newbury and as for festival targets remember it is only 4 and therefore the Triumph Hurdle could be an option.

Cheers Woody. I backed Trouble at bay also yesterday but as you say it was'nt to be. Five Dream is now definitely in my team to follow this season & next.

[bowles10]

Re: Jumps Season 07/08 - Notebook & Ante Post Bets

Cheers Woody. I backed Trouble at bay also yesterday but as you say it was'nt to be. Five Dream is now definitely in my team to follow this season & next.

another point, Five Dreams winning time was quicker than Franchoek yesterday 4/1 Franchoek & 20/1 Five Dream for the triumph? Am i missing something?

[mowgli77]

Re: Jumps Season 07/08 - Notebook & Ante Post Bets The whole Alan King/Katchit/did it last year scenario keeps getting spouted, Franchoek is a different horse, it is not Katchit. Get yourself a few quid on at that price for Fivedream, will have to be on it's game to beat Franchoek at Cheltenham but big price at the moment.

[bowles10]

Re: Jumps Season 07/08 - Notebook & Ante Post Bets I've been looking for a decent chaser to add to my Cheltenham team for the Royal & Sun Alliance chase. The horse in question is Here's Johnny from Vic Dartnall's yard & is currently 20/1 best price (bet365). The trends for the race show that it favours horses finishing 1st or 2nd on latest outing, NH bred & between 3-5 runs in the season. I recall the horse running Joe Lively to 2L at the December Kempton Meeting finishing 5L in front of Silverburn. Prior to date Joe Lively beat it again in the race where Nevada Royale fell at the last & Here's Johnny was badly hampered by the fallen horse. Not sure Here's Johnny would have won that day but again it was a decent effort. The horse stays 3m & acts on any ground having won on all types from Good through to heavy. Ran at the festival last year when 7th behind Wichita lineman in the 3m hurdle. Dartnalls comments after the latest race were: 26 Dec 2007 Kempton (24GS,RPR140) The winner is a decent horse but I am delighted with mine. It wasn't the strongest of gallops, which did not help us, but he is also a funny horse who can't hit the front too soon. He's learning his trade well and I think we will go to Cheltenham on that. - Victor Dartnall I would be hopeful if he runs it again before the festival. :ok

[Aykay1]

Re: Jumps Season 07/08 - Notebook & Ante Post Bets Gold Medallist got tuend over at long odds-on yesterday to damage his chances in the R&SA Chase :(

[WoodyTHFC]

Re: Jumps Season 07/08 - Notebook & Ante Post Bets

Gold Medallist got tuend over at long odds-on yesterday to damage his chances in the R&SA Chase :(

The only point I would say about that is that the possible bounce factor may have crept in. It is amazing how frequently horses running after a huge break like this one did at Cheltenham in December (2 and half years break) can run fine races first time out but then disappoint on their next run so perhaps do not give up hope. I put Mark the Book up for the RSAC but it looks like it could yet go for the new Peter O'Sulliven race as it looks a real out and out stayer.

[swampster]

Re: Jumps Season 07/08 - Notebook & Ante Post Bets while i take an intrepid step over from the poker section, someone 'in the know' has tipped Aces Four as a decent EW in the Gold Cup. Was at 50s last week but down to 40/1 best price now. Apparently being saved for the Gold Cup and ground permitting, should do well. Thoughts?