Wumpking Posted April 9, 2010 Author Share Posted April 9, 2010 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FrazeNZ Posted May 6, 2010 Share Posted May 6, 2010 Re: Rugby Quarb System Nice work mate, havent seen any recent postings, is the system still working ok? Question, im trying to get my head around how you work out the stake formula Stakes are based on the Kelly criteria with an added modification to limit risk and are calculated by the following formulae: Current Total Bank x % Difference between Mean Odds and Best Odds x Subjective Probability of Winning (as derived from the mean odds). How do you work out the last portion? Subjective Probability of winning? cheers, Fraze Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
That Foreign Guy Posted May 7, 2010 Share Posted May 7, 2010 Re: Rugby Quarb System It sounds like he's calculating fair %s from the mean bookie prices (convert the prices to percent and then divide by the total). That's the subjective probability of winning. The difference between that and the outlier's probability of winning is the edge part of the kelly equation. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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