Wumpking Posted September 19, 2007 Author Share Posted September 19, 2007 Re: Rugby Quarb System Assessment of the next 3 matches: Match No.DateTournamentHome TeamBest OddsWorst OddsAv OddsAv Odds +5%Selection3119/09/2007RWC 2007Italy1.021.001.001.05No Bet3220/09/2007RWC 2007Wales1.021.001.001.05No Bet3321/09/2007RWC 2007France1.201.121.161.22No Bet No bets as no value. Possible chance that France's price might drift on Betfair from its current 1.20 to 1.24 which is the minimum price required (taking into account commission) so will monitor price up to Friday's kick off. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wumpking Posted September 20, 2007 Author Share Posted September 20, 2007 Re: Rugby Quarb System Possible chance that France's price might drift on Betfair from its current 1.20 to 1.24 which is the minimum price required (taking into account commission) so will monitor price up to Friday's kick off. France price suprisingly drifted to 1.24 earlier today and stake was matched. Bet therefore is France - £42.00 win @ 1.24 with Betfair - :hope. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wumpking Posted September 21, 2007 Author Share Posted September 21, 2007 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wumpking Posted September 21, 2007 Author Share Posted September 21, 2007 Re: Rugby Quarb System Cardiff Blues beat Glasgow 32 - 16 :cow France beat Ireland 25 -3 :cow System update: Starting Bank £1,000.00 Current Bank £995.52 Total Staked £353.00 Number of Bets 8 Winning Bets 6 Losing Bets 2 Strike Rate 75.0% Yield -1.3% Profit / Loss -£4.48 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wumpking Posted September 21, 2007 Author Share Posted September 21, 2007 Re: Rugby Quarb System Assessment of remaining weekend games: Match No. Date Tournament Home Team Best Odds Av Odds Av Odds +5% Av Odds +7% Selection 39 22/09/2007 RWC 2007 Argentina 1.00 1.00 1.05 1.07 No Bet 40 22/09/2007 Guinness Prem Harlequins 1.22 1.17 1.23 1.25 Possible via Betfair 41 22/09/2007 Guinness Prem Leicester 1.30 1.25 1.31 1.34 Possible via Betfair 42 22/09/2007 Guinness Prem Worcester 2.10 1.95 2.05 2.09 No Bet 43 22/09/2007 Magners League Leinster 1.12 1.11 1.16 1.18 Possible via Betfair 44 22/09/2007 Magners League Munster 1.36 1.32 1.39 1.41 Possible via Betfair 45 23/09/2007 RWC 2007 Australia 1.00 1.00 1.05 1.07 No Bet 46 23/09/2007 RWC 2007 Scotland 67.00 43.80 45.99 46.87 No Bet 47 23/09/2007 Guinness Prem London Irish 1.50 1.46 1.53 1.56 Possible via Betfair 48 23/09/2007 Guinness Prem Sale 1.57 1.46 1.53 1.56 Sale 49 23/09/2007 Guinness Prem Saracens 2.00 1.91 2.01 2.04 No Bet Only selection via bookies is Sale - £51.00 @ 1.57 with Bet365 - :hope. I've amended the table slightly as increasingly the system is identifying a number of potential selections via Betfair. As such, I've requested the following amounts/prices: Harlequins - £43.00 @ 1.25 Leicester - £40.00 @ 1.34 Leinster - £45.00 @1.18 Munster - £38.00 @1.41 London Irish - £34.00 @ 1.56 I'll update accordingly if any matched prior to kick off. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wumpking Posted September 22, 2007 Author Share Posted September 22, 2007 Re: Rugby Quarb System Nothing matched as yet. However, further bookies have posted prices for London Irish. Best price is now 1.54, therefore Betfair request cancelled and selection is London Irish - £34.00 @ 1.54 with BetChronicle - :hope. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wumpking Posted September 22, 2007 Author Share Posted September 22, 2007 Re: Rugby Quarb System Leicester bet just matched in full :). Selection is Leicester - £40.00 @ 1.34 with Betfair - :hope. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wumpking Posted September 22, 2007 Author Share Posted September 22, 2007 Re: Rugby Quarb System Munster bet not matched as yet. However, checked prices and seen further bookies have posted prices for match. Best price is now 1.40, therefore Betfair request cancelled and selection is Munster - £46.00 @ 1.40 with SportingBet - :hope. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wumpking Posted September 22, 2007 Author Share Posted September 22, 2007 Re: Rugby Quarb System Harlequins bet not matched and now lapsed. Leinster unmatched as yet and looking unlikely (approx 10 mins to kick off). England beat Samoa 44 - 22 :cow Leicester beat Bath 26 - 16 :cow Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wumpking Posted September 22, 2007 Author Share Posted September 22, 2007 Re: Rugby Quarb System Munster beat the Scarlets 26 - 16 :cow I'll update the overall system after the outcomes of tomorrow's bets. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cymro Posted September 23, 2007 Share Posted September 23, 2007 Re: Rugby Quarb System Just found this Wumpking, looks very interesting and best of luck for the season :hope Hopefully you'll be showing a nice profit after this weekend's games. Will definitely keep an eye on this when betting on the Magners League. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wumpking Posted September 23, 2007 Author Share Posted September 23, 2007 Re: Rugby Quarb System Just found this Wumpking, looks very interesting and best of luck for the season :hope Hopefully you'll be showing a nice profit after this weekend's games. Will definitely keep an eye on this when betting on the Magners League. Cheers Cymro, thanks for the good wishes they are much appreciated. It was a good weekend as all 7 selections won! Just for the record: London Irish beat Newcastle 19 -0 :cow Sale beat Bristol 20 - 6 :cow System update: Starting Bank £1,000.00 Current Bank £1,084.53 Total Staked £578.00 Number of Bets 13 Winning Bets 11 Losing Bets 2 Strike Rate 84.6% Yield 14.6% Profit / Loss £84.53 Back in the Black :rollin Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wumpking Posted September 24, 2007 Author Share Posted September 24, 2007 Re: Rugby Quarb System Assessment of tomorrow's matches: Match No. Date Tournament Home Team Best Odds Av Odds Av Odds +5% Av Odds +7% Selection 50 25/09/2007 RWC 2007 Canada 1.29 1.19 1.25 1.27 Canada 51 25/09/2007 RWC 2007 Romania 1.12 1.08 1.13 1.15 Possible via Betfair First selection is Canada - £79.00 @ 1.29 with Stan James - :hope. I'll be honest and admit that I am slightly worried about this selection/bet. The high stake due to Stan James' price being 9% above the bookies mean is causing some of this concern. In the 4 games Canada has played against Japan since 2000, both sides have won 2 a piece, although 3 out of the 4 were played in Japan. Planet Rugby's analysis of the match concludes that this game could go either way, but they do plump for a narrow Canuck win. Based on the IRB ratings, Canada (67.50) should beat Japan (64.79) at a neutral venue by 6 points, so again further evidences that this should be close. On the positive side, Sporting Index (always a good guide) have the Canuck supremacy over the Cherry Blossoms pitched as 12-15, whilst the average handicap mark is -13.5 points at 1.90. At the end of the day, however, what the system selects, I bets! Second selection is Romania - £50.00 @ 1.15 with Betfair - :hope. Whilst I was able to get £50.00 fully matched on Betfair which is the minimum price required (taking into account commission), I am also a little apprehensive about this selection/bet. Romania have played Portugal 7 times since 2000, winning 6 out of the 7. However, Portugal have shown considerable attacking flair in their last 3 matches, resulting in tries being scored against Scotland, Italy and even New Zealand! They are the people's favourites for tomorrow's match, although not the bookies, and are looking for a historic RWC win to end their tournament. Planet Rugby's analysis of the match concludes that this will be a tricky game to call, but they go for a Portuguese win by 8. Based on the IRB ratings, however, Romania (66.51) should beat Portugal (62.03) at a neutral venue by 10 points. Sporting Index have the Oak's supremacy over Os Lobos pitched at 20-23, whilst the average handicap mark is -19.0 points at 1.90 which is some reassurance. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wumpking Posted September 25, 2007 Author Share Posted September 25, 2007 Re: Rugby Quarb System My worries were proved correct as Canada drew against Japan 12 - 12 :@ :wall :@. I got in from work right at the end of the game and thought the bet was won when the Cannucks kicked the ball dead with 80 mins up on the clock. The ref allowed the line out however, and after several agonising minutes, sod's law dictated that Japan scored and kicked a tricky conversion to level the game and lose the bet. For me, this selection / outcome raises an interesting question. I was uneasy backing Canada but chose too as they were a system pick. At what point however, should a follower of a system over ride the system's selection? Would be interested in other forumites opinions on this (if anybody else is reading). Romania just about scraped home against Portugal to win 14 - 10 :cow System update: Starting Bank £1,000.00 Current Bank £1,012.65 Total Staked £707.00 Number of Bets 15 Winning Bets 12 Losing Bets 3 Strike Rate 80.0% Yield 1.8% Profit / Loss £12.65 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wumpking Posted September 25, 2007 Author Share Posted September 25, 2007 Re: Rugby Quarb System Assessment of tomorrow's matches: Match No. Date Tournament Home Team Best Odds Av Odds Av Odds +5% Av Odds +7% Selection 52 26/09/2007 RWC 2007 Samoa 1.16 1.09 1.15 1.17 Samoa 53 26/09/2007 RWC 2007 Georgia 1.25 1.17 1.23 1.25 Georgia First selection is Samoa - £59.00 @ 1.16 with BetChronicle - :hope Another uneasy selection! Samoa have probably been the biggest disappointment of the RWC and have lost 3 out of 3 so far (including a galling defeat against Tonga). This will be their last chance to record a win in the tournament by beating the USA. The Pacific Islanders have never played the Eagles before, so no past form to go on. Planet Rugby's analysis highlights the Samoan's injury problems and concludes that the USA will win by 10 points. Based on the IRB ratings, however, Samoa (70.66) should beat the USA (65.26) at a neutral venue by around 12 points. Furthermore, Sporting Index have the Pacific Islanders' supremacy over the Eagles pitched at 13-16, whilst the average handicap mark on Samoa is -17.0 points at 1.90. Second selection is Georgia - £60.00 @ 1.25 with Stan James - :hope Slightly less worries for me in with this selection as Georgia take on Namibi. Both sides are seeking to make their own bit rugby history by recording their first win in a RWC. Namibia come into the match after a comprehensive beating at the hands of Argentina some 4 days ago, although they did rest some of their key players for this game. Georgia are well rested having only narrowly lost to Ireland some 10 days ago. Planet Rugby's analysis suggests this will be a tough one to call but conclude that Georgia will win by 10 points. Based on the IRB ratings, Georgia (66.38) should beat Namibia (57.15) at a neutral venue by around 20 points. Sporting Index have the Lelos' supremacy over the Namibians pitched slightly lower at 11-14, whilst the average handicap mark on Georgia is -13.5 points at 1.90. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wumpking Posted September 25, 2007 Author Share Posted September 25, 2007 Re: Rugby Quarb System Enough prices available to assess Friday's match between England and Tonga: Match No. Date Tournament Home Team Best Odds Av Odds Av Odds +5% Av Odds +7% Selection 54 28/09/2007 RWC 2007 England 1.10 1.07 1.12 1.14 England Current price on Betfair for England is 1.15 which is slightly above the minimum price required (taking into account commission). Therefore, bet is England - £59.00 @ 1.15 with Betfair - :hope I'd be extremely suprised if England failed to win this. In their only meeting todate (at RWC 1999), England beat Tonga 101 - 10. Whilst Tonga have improved since then and England have declined, the gulf in class between these two sides should really be too much for the Tongans to overcome. Indeed, based on the IRB ratings, England (79.05) should beat Tonga (72.56) at a neutral venue by around 14 points. The bookies predict it will be more, as the average handicap mark on England is -21.0 points at 1.90. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pie-chucker Posted September 26, 2007 Share Posted September 26, 2007 Re: Rugby Quarb System Hmmm, maybe the Samoa game is where instinct might override the system. 1.16 looks incredibly skinny to me on a team that have had two very recent hard game losses and look a bit mentally/physically shot. Plus injuries. USA haven't played for yonks and are as fresh as daisies. However, good on yer for 'trusting the system'. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wumpking Posted September 26, 2007 Author Share Posted September 26, 2007 Re: Rugby Quarb System Hmmm, maybe the Samoa game is where instinct might override the system. 1.16 looks incredibly skinny to me on a team that have had two very recent hard game losses and look a bit mentally/physically shot. Plus injuries. USA haven't played for yonks and are as fresh as daisies. However, good on yer for 'trusting the system'. Cheers Pie-chucker for the input. This bet is a worry for me as outlined. I'm determined however, to stick to the system selections (at least until the bank is wiped out :lol). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2hcb Posted September 26, 2007 Share Posted September 26, 2007 Re: Rugby Quarb System For me, this selection / outcome raises an interesting question. I was uneasy backing Canada but chose too as they were a system pick. At what point however, should a follower of a system over ride the system's selection? Would be interested in other forumites opinions on this (if anybody else is reading). I'd say you have to go with the system. Personally I have never used any system for betting but if you've found one that means you have to bet every time it registers value then I think you have to take it otherwise you're not using a system atall you're just making picks and you're limiting your picks to a small catchment area. just read that back and it makes little sense, sorry! In short I think you should trust your system - you can always turn round and blame a useless system rather than yourself if you lose but if the pick wins and you weren't on it then it's nobody's fault but yours! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F. Posted September 26, 2007 Share Posted September 26, 2007 Re: Rugby Quarb System For me, this selection / outcome raises an interesting question. I was uneasy backing Canada but chose too as they were a system pick. At what point however, should a follower of a system over ride the system's selection? Would be interested in other forumites opinions on this (if anybody else is reading). IMO the answer to this question should take into account other factors. First of all, what is your idea of a system? If it is a number cruncher that you should follow religiously, or is it a "value detector" that just points you in the direction of potential value bets? By design your system only picks selection with low odds, therefore one loss can wipe away five or six wins. Or look at it this way: if you don't bet when your instinct tells you not to, you would face a 'not earned profit' situation when 6 out of 7 no bet matches were winners. Since you seem to be a guy that knows his rugby very well :ok, do you think this is a likely scenario or not? In the specific case of that match you lost I think you overlooked the fundamental of a system: value. Whatever the stats said you detected that the odds offered weren't good enough for such a tight game. Therefore it was a bet with no value and IMHO you should've followed yoiur gut. F. P.S.: sorry if my English was crap today, it is one of those days when neurons refuse to connect to each other... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2hcb Posted September 26, 2007 Share Posted September 26, 2007 Re: Rugby Quarb System System was right ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew Posted September 26, 2007 Share Posted September 26, 2007 Re: Rugby Quarb System Well done Wumpking................. I like the way you write up and reflect on your bets. Good Work - Good Profit - Good Yield(%)!!!! Did your back testing involve any international fixtures on neutral grounds? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wumpking Posted September 26, 2007 Author Share Posted September 26, 2007 Re: Rugby Quarb System Cheers 2hcb and F. for the input. You both raise good points. At the moment, the system is a 'number cruncher' that detects in theory value bets that I religiously follow. It is certainly possible however, that it could be 'fine tuned' even further by additional analysis. What criteria should be used for this however, is debatable. My main worry is if I start to tinker, I will miss winning bets as I do think this is likely. Psychologically speaking, I'm concerned that if this were to happen I may revert to bad 'tilt like' habits :$! Food for thought . . . On to tonight's outcomes. Georgia beat Namibia 30 - 0 :cow Samoa hang on to beat USA 25 - 21 :cow The system was indeed right 2hcb! System update: Starting Bank £1,000.00 Current Bank £1,037.09 Total Staked £826.00 Number of Bets 17 Winning Bets 14 Losing Bets 3 Strike Rate 82.4% Yield 4.5% Profit / Loss £37.09 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2hcb Posted September 26, 2007 Share Posted September 26, 2007 Re: Rugby Quarb System essentially you're picking home (excluding RWC) favourites who should really win their matches baring a poor performance. Normally the odds dictate that you can't beat individual bookies like that, but by betting only on the prices which your system picks out as extra value you hopefully will get some profit long term :hope However, by just opposing the teams you felt unsure about on the cap you'd be way up already ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wumpking Posted September 26, 2007 Author Share Posted September 26, 2007 Re: Rugby Quarb System Well done Wumpking................. I like the way you write up and reflect on your bets. Good Work - Good Profit - Good Yield(%)!!!! Did your back testing involve any international fixtures on neutral grounds? Thanks Matthew for the kind comments. You raise a good point. I was originally not going to include any neutral venue based matches as rugby games generally have a strong home bias (generally considered to be 6 - 7 points for the home side), which helps the system archieve a high strike rate. However, the RWC was too good an opportunity to miss, particularly due to my passion for the game. I did review the results for RWC 2003. Whilst I didn't have access to the required bookie odds to fully back test, I know that the vast majority of games were won by the favourite as it was 'very well behaved' in terms of outcomes as there were only 2 or 3 upsets in the whole tournament. I'm sure that the quarb approach would therefore have applied. It will be interesting to review the whole of this RWC at the end of the tournament to see if it was profitable to include! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wumpking Posted September 26, 2007 Author Share Posted September 26, 2007 Re: Rugby Quarb System However' date=' by just opposing the teams you felt unsure about on the cap you'd be way up already ;)[/quote'] Another good point - although I feel unsure (albeit some more than others) about them all :lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wumpking Posted September 27, 2007 Author Share Posted September 27, 2007 Re: Rugby Quarb System A few prices starting to appear for the 19 matches over the weekend. Not enough as yet to assess many of the games. However, one with enough prices available that takes the eye is: Match No.DateTournamentHome TeamBest OddsAv OddsAv Odds +5%Av Odds +7%Selection6229/09/2007RWC 2007Scotland1.501.411.481.50Scotland Selection therefore is Scotland - £50.00 @ 1.50 with Ladbrokes - :hope If you'd asked me before the RWC about the outcome of this game, I'd have plumped for an Italian win. Indeed, I'd posted on the RWC thread way before the tournie started that Italy would beat Scotland and finish runners up in this group. However, the Italians have had a really poor RWC with an absolute thrashing at the hands of the All Blacks followed by unconvincing wins over Romania and Portugal. Scotland, by comparison, have looked as good as they could (particularly their pack) against Romania and Portugal and even their B side did moderately well against a full strength New Zealand team. Scotland have named an injury free, strong side for this game and in Paterson, have one of the best kickers of the tournament 'dodgey' RWC balls. This will hopefully keep the scoreboard ticking over for them as I am sure the Scottish pack will put the Italians under enough pressure to concede vital penalties. Italy's team selection is less strong than they would have liked having lost one or two players and their captain to injury. Based on the IRB ratings, Italy (75.65) should beat Scotland (74.95) at a neutral venue by around 1 point. The sides know each other well having played 9 times against each other since 2000, with Scotland slightly ahead through winning 5 out of the 9. Six minutes of Scottish madness in their last match cost them the game as they gifted Italy 3 tries from which they never recovered. 1.50 is a skinny price for potentially such a close game. However, the price is one that is 7% above the mean and likely to drop before the match. Indeed, its not often that you find that Ladbrokes are offering the stand out price at anything :lol ! Am I uneasy about this selection / bet? Yes, but this is a yes with an if! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wumpking Posted September 28, 2007 Author Share Posted September 28, 2007 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wumpking Posted September 28, 2007 Author Share Posted September 28, 2007 Re: Rugby Quarb System Scarlets bet was not matched. Blues bet not matched as yet (still a slim chance as bet now first in lay queue) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wumpking Posted September 28, 2007 Author Share Posted September 28, 2007 Re: Rugby Quarb System Blues bet wasn't matched. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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