CL qual - 1st leg (Tue 31/7 - Wed 1/8)

[Tulenos]

Tuesday 31 July 2007
	Home	Draw	Away	bookmakers margin on the event. However, they do not take account of commissions that may be charged." align="center">BPP
Pyunik v Shakhtar Donetsk (16:00 BST)	8.40	4.60	1.43	104%	Related markets...Match ResultHalf-time/Full-time - - -Correct ScoreHalf-time Correct ScoreOver/Under
Tampere United v Levski Sofia (17:00 BST)	4.30	3.70	2.03	100%	Related markets...Match ResultHalf-time/Full-time - - -Correct ScoreHalf-time Correct ScoreHalf-time ResultOver/Under
FC København v Beitar Jerusalem (19:15 BST)	1.64	3.75	6.60	103%	Related markets...Match ResultHalf-time/Full-time - - -Correct ScoreDraw No BetHalf-time Correct ScoreHalf-time ResultOver/Under
Racing Genk v Sarajevo (19:30 BST)	1.40	4.50	8.75	106%	Related markets...Match ResultHalf-time/Full-time - - -Correct ScoreHalf-time Correct ScoreHalf-time ResultOver/Under
Debrecen v IF Elfsborg (19:45 BST)	2.20	3.20	3.30	108%	Related markets...Match ResultHalf-time/Full-time - - -Correct ScoreHalf-time Result
Zaglebie Lubin v Steaua Bucharest (19:45 BST)	3.50	3.25	2.32	103%	Related markets...Match ResultHalf-time/Full-time - - -Correct ScoreHalf-time Correct ScoreHalf-time ResultOver/Under
Rangers v Zeta (20:05 BST)	1.12	9.00	28.00	104%	Related markets...Match ResultHalf-time/Full-time - - -Correct ScoreHalf-time Correct ScoreHalf-time ResultOdd or Even TotalOver/UnderTotal Goals
Wednesday 1 August 2007
	Home	Draw	Away	bookmakers margin on the event. However, they do not take account of commissions that may be charged." align="center">BPP
FC Astana v Rosenborg (14:00 BST)	3.75	3.30	2.02	107%	Related markets...Match ResultHalf-time/Full-timeCorrect Score
FK Ventspils v Red Bull Salzburg (17:00 BST)	4.65	3.45	1.83	106%	Related markets...Match ResultHalf-time/Full-time - - -Correct ScoreHalf-time Correct ScoreHalf-time ResultOver/Under
Besiktas v Sheriff Tiraspol (19:00 BST)	1.19	7.00	17.00	105%	Related markets...Match ResultHalf-time/Full-time - - -Correct ScoreAway Team To ScoreDraw No BetFirst Goal TimeHalf with Most GoalsHalf-time Correct ScoreHalf-time ResultHome Team To ScoreOver/UnderTotal Goals
MSK Zilina v Slavia Prague (19:00 BST)	2.87	3.40	2.64	103%	Related markets...Match ResultHalf-time/Full-time - - -Correct ScoreHalf-time Correct ScoreHalf-time ResultOver/Under
Crvena Zvezda v Levadia Tallinn (19:15 BST)	1.25	7.00	13.00	102%	Related markets...Match ResultHalf-time/Full-time - - -Correct ScoreHalf-time Correct ScoreHalf-time ResultOver/Under
NK Domzale v NK Dinamo Zagreb (19:15 BST)	3.50	3.30	2.20	105%	Related markets...Match ResultHalf-time/Full-time - - -Correct ScoreHalf-time Correct ScoreHalf-time ResultOver/Under
FH Hafnarfjordur v Bate Borisov (19:30 BST)	2.26	3.40	3.10	106%	Related markets...Match ResultHalf-time/Full-time - - -Correct ScoreHalf-time Correct ScoreHalf-time ResultOver/Under

---

[Fizruhas]

Re: CL qual - 1st leg (Tue 31/7 - Wed 1/8) thinking about Crvena zvezda handy -1 or -1.5, Levadia are too poor to beat or draw with Crvena and theyr fans there ... i think they will deffinetly win here at home easily! Second FC Kobenhavn to beat Beitar! any thoughts?

[dj_fish]

Re: CL qual - 1st leg (Tue 31/7 - Wed 1/8) genk-sarajevo home win sarajevos coach said that they will not play with two strikers and that will defend they sold their best player and repuh is not ready for the match,turkovic is doubt laso good player genk is good home side and should easily win sarajevo home

[dj_fish]

Re: CL qual - 1st leg (Tue 31/7 - Wed 1/8) domzale-dinamo dinamo will have injured players back and that should bring some moral back they underestimadet hazar and that was the main problem imo slovenia is neighboor country and trip should be short so players would be rest to be objectiv dinamo is much better team but never knows only problem is that coach will be out becouse of the red card in last game,but replacment is also good odd is quite good on away win

[allthethings]

Re: CL qual - 1st leg (Tue 31/7 - Wed 1/8) My intention had been to take all big underdogs with the handicap after watching them clean up in the first rounds of CL and Uefa Cup. But I went back to last year's results, and this is what I saw: 1st round CL qualifiers in round 2 (2006) Home in first leg: 0-1-5, 3-13 goal differential Away in first leg: 0-1-4, 1-12 goal differential Now, this is only one year and I have no idea what the handicaps were, but in virtually all cases it appears the first-round winners were totally overmatched, the typical result being 0-2 whether at home or away (4 overs, 7 unders). Tomorrow's handicaps include just one game of -2, it looks as though the favorites of -1 or -1.5 are a reasonable bet (7-4 last year). If I get a chance to go back to 2005 and 2004 I'll let you know.

[allthethings]

Re: CL qual - 1st leg (Tue 31/7 - Wed 1/8) 2005 First leg home: 2-2-3, 10-12 goals First leg away: 0-0-3, 0-7 goals The two winners were Anorthosis 3-1 over Trabzonspor, Artmedia 5-0 over Celtic. Note that the other 5 games had a goal differential of 2-11. 2004 First leg home: 0-3-4, 7-17 goals First leg away: 0-1-2, 3-5 goals More like 2006, but 4 draws...it looks as though 2006 is the anomalous year, the least competitive of the three. Still, the total over three years: First leg home: 2-6-12, 20-42 goals First leg away: 0-2-9, 4-24 goals ...shows that home-field advantage for the underdogs is still very slight, and it's very tough for these teams on the road. What does this mean for tomorrow? Three first-round survivors play on the road: Elfsborg @ Debreceni -0.5 +108, Zeta @ Glasgow -2 -156, Sarajevo @ Genk -1.5 +102. Under the circumstances, I'd say Debreceni is worth taking, with the handicap, at better than evens. Nine of the 11 games over the past three years have been losses, two draws. Genk is a tougher call: just five of the 11 games have been losses by 2+ goals. And just three have been by 3+ goals, meaning that Zeta could be worth plus-money for +2.

[allthethings]

Re: CL qual - 1st leg (Tue 31/7 - Wed 1/8) OK, here goes nothing: Soccer - Genk - spread -1½ (+102) for the regulation time held on Jul 31 at 1:30pm [pending] Soccer - Debreceni - spread -½ (+108) for the regulation time held on Jul 31 at 1:45pm [pending] Knowing nothing about these teams' preparation or motivation, but knowing how poorly first-round qualifiers have done on the road in the first leg of the second round, I'd say Debreceni is worth taking, with the handicap, at better than evens. Nine of the 11 games over the past three years have been losses, two draws. Add to that that Elfsborg is a) from Sweden, and b) is underperforming on the road, with 1-1-4 over their past six (four league, one CL game and one Svenska Cup), and this looks pretty good, even if Debrecen is a Hungarian team. For what it's worth, they're 3-1-0 in the young Hungarian season, and their last non-Cup loss at home was Nov. 6. Genk is a tougher call with the 1.5 handicap: just five of the 11 games in my tiny sample have been losses by 2+ goals. Their past eight home league games (granting that their season ended in May) ended with a 6-1-1 record. Sarajevo, moreover, are not good travelers. Before they beat their first-round CL opponent 6-0 on the road, they'd gone 14 games away without winning, though they drew some. Their last road win was last October. BOL all

[Mazarin]

Re: CL qual - 1st leg (Tue 31/7 - Wed 1/8) Thanks for your great insight! About Debrecen: They're apparently missing their best goal scorer. Elfsborg also have some injury woes, although not as serious as first thought. Debrecen were eliminated by a side from Macedonia (!) at this stage of the competition last year. I have great respect for the teams from eastern Europe and, frankly, don't think Elfsborg are quite up to the task. They're basically an attacking side and vulnerable away from home. Just my opinion. What about the polish side Lubin? Any thoughts on why they are so heavily the underdogs at home? How good are Steaua these days anyway?

[G:G]

Re: CL qual - 1st leg (Tue 31/7 - Wed 1/8) Elfsborg without midfielder Ilola, he's been injured for a while, only new injury is attacker Svensson. I find it hard to compare different legaues, but the way I see it this match is a even matchup. I don't think Elfsborg's results in the previous leg will prove very important, Elfsborg usually have problems with teams that play the figthing kind of football that Linfield did. I don't know very much about Debreceni, but I'm pretty sure their way of playing will suit Elfsborg better.

[El NihiL]

Re: CL qual - 1st leg (Tue 31/7 - Wed 1/8)

Elfsborg usually have problems with teams that play the figthing kind of football that Linfield did. I don't know very much about Debreceni' date=' but I'm pretty sure their way of playing will suit Elfsborg better.[/quote'] Very possible that Debrecen has some quality to get smt from this match to me...THey are dominant in their domestic league and some young talents, dangerous players in the squad, Sidibe (played in Ried before) can be a trouble for Elsborg defence, but I expect a tight match and a lot of middle-field struggle there (Debrecen's middle-field has enough quality to do that against Elsborg) , I don't think that Elsborg will play specially for a win, a draw will be desirable for them... A draw seems on the horizon, and I'll take it gladly, but Debrecen with HAndicap could be another choice Draw at 3.20 is my selection here, at Bet-at-home 3/10 stake

[Rockman]

Re: CL qual - 1st leg (Tue 31/7 - Wed 1/8)

thinking about Crvena zvezda handy -1 or -1.5, Levadia are too poor to beat or draw with Crvena and theyr fans there ... i think they will deffinetly win here at home easily! Second FC Kobenhavn to beat Beitar! any thoughts?

zvezda should win comfortably but the problem is the pitch is in awful condition from reports.It has been raining very heavily around the stadium. Some of the area in the pitch is without grass too according to zvezda website.I dont think with this kind of condition it would be that easy for zvezda.

[Rockman]

Re: CL qual - 1st leg (Tue 31/7 - Wed 1/8) rangers should be the banker of the round but the hcp is set at -2.25.I will take this hcp too since rangers must win comfortably against a young side who should be terrified by the support at ibrox.If rangers dont win by at least 2 goals they will have problem in their away match. rangers [email protected] 7/10

[allthethings]

Re: CL qual - 1st leg (Tue 31/7 - Wed 1/8)

Thanks for your great insight! About Debrecen: They're apparently missing their best goal scorer. Elfsborg also have some injury woes, although not as serious as first thought. Debrecen were eliminated by a side from Macedonia (!) at this stage of the competition last year. I have great respect for the teams from eastern Europe and, frankly, don't think Elfsborg are quite up to the task. They're basically an attacking side and vulnerable away from home. Just my opinion. What about the polish side Lubin? Any thoughts on why they are so heavily the underdogs at home? How good are Steaua these days anyway?

I had read in here about Debrecen's missings, but I find these sorts of things usually cancel each other out. Draw sounds very possible here, but that's not on offer from my book. I do know that Elfsborg have trouble on the road and didn't exactly play inspired football in the first round. BOL

[G:G]

Re: CL qual - 1st leg (Tue 31/7 - Wed 1/8)

Very possible that Debrecen has some quality to get smt from this match to me...THey are dominant in their domestic league and some young talents, dangerous players in the squad, Sidibe (played in Ried before) can be a trouble for Elsborg defence, but I expect a tight match and a lot of middle-field struggle there (Debrecen's middle-field has enough quality to do that against Elsborg) , I don't think that Elsborg will play specially for a win, a draw will be desirable for them... A draw seems on the horizon, and I'll take it gladly, but Debrecen with HAndicap could be another choice Draw at 3.20 is my selection here, at Bet-at-home 3/10 stake

Sidibe is suspended today. Agree about the draw as a possible outcome, but I'll leave this one, I'll stick with Rangers -2.25 @ 2.05 from Pinny yesterday, the class difference should be huge, I really think Rangers will cover.

[El NihiL]

Re: CL qual - 1st leg (Tue 31/7 - Wed 1/8)

Sidibe is suspended today. Agree about the draw as a possible outcome' date=' but I'll leave this one, [/quote'] Thanx for the contribution G:G..Then Draw is more possible now....:ok

[spgore]

Re: CL qual - 1st leg (Tue 31/7 - Wed 1/8) Does anyone have any team news for the Rangers-Zeta match? Tempted to do Zeta AH +2.5 @ 1.98 on Betfair, but need some news first. Personally can not see Rangers thumping them, and only winning 2-0 or similar.

[true world]

Re: CL qual - 1st leg (Tue 31/7 - Wed 1/8) What about Debrecen - Elfsborg, everything is possible here, I'm afraid. Let me tell about a few things, because I'm from Debrecen, so this is my team:D Debrecen are strong at home that's right, but this time they are going to face a Swedish team and Swedish football is far better than Hungarian football. I don't know a lot about Elfsborg, so it's difficult for me to predict this game. I heard that Elfsborg will be missing some key players like Mathias Svensson. It surely would be a great advantage for Debrecen. I'm expecting a phisically strong, dynamic team that play the classical English football and if so, it will be difficult for Debrecen because normally they don't like playing against this type of opponents. Debrecen can suprise tecnically the Swedish side I think, phisically Elfsborg will be better, I'm almost sure of that. Debrecen have some really talented youngsters, like Dzsudzsák who is a real dangerman on the left wing, next year he will be playing in one of the top leagues, in England, Italy or Spain for sure. I don't think that Sidibe's missing is a real handicap for the home side, because there's the newly signed Kouemaha from Cameroon. A strong, fast and dangerous forward that scored two goals on his debute in the Hungarian Super Cup final. He's equal, maybe also better than Sidibe. And there's also the Macedonian international Stojkov, the other forward who played in couple with Sidibe last year. Debercen's weak point is their defence. If this repart will work well tonight, Debrecen can win the game with a small margine, but I'm afraid it will be difficult for Debrecen not to concede tonight. I'm expecting a close game, I would say something like a 1-1 draw or 1-0 for home side or Elfsborg are the most probable results. So, if I should take a bet for this one, my pick would be under 2.5 goals. The fact that Elfsborg struggled against a relatively poor side like Linfield in the previous round make me think a little bit, so maybe also 1x worth a try, but only with small stake. Anyway, for me this one is a no bet. For me it's too unpredictable.

[Vagus_]

Re: CL qual - 1st leg (Tue 31/7 - Wed 1/8)

thinking about Crvena zvezda handy -1 or -1.5, Levadia are too poor to beat or draw with Crvena and theyr fans there ... i think they will deffinetly win here at home easily! Second FC Kobenhavn to beat Beitar! any thoughts?

I will write tomorow my complete opinion, but on a first sight, that is definitlly Under 2.5, I find it in my local 2.40 and 2.35 @ Expect. Fantastic value. Pitch is in bad condition, Levadia is known as good defending team and Crvena Zvezda will surley go to not concide goal at home. Not to mention that Zvezda have many new players and team is a bit different then last season. Pre-season games was nothing special. 1:0, 2:0 is my CS prediction, but... more info tomorow morning ;)

[MemoryOf82]

Re: CL qual - 1st leg (Tue 31/7 - Wed 1/8)

genk-sarajevo home win sarajevos coach said that they will not play with two strikers and that will defend they sold their best player and repuh is not ready for the match,turkovic is doubt laso good player genk is good home side and should easily win sarajevo home

lost 2-1, after going 1-0 down they got one back, but lost it in the last 10 minutes, i had 800-900 coming back if they had won, bit of a shocker alright :( :wall...

[allthethings]

Re: CL qual - 1st leg (Tue 31/7 - Wed 1/8) Dundalk a 3-0 WINNER for me, which helps since all my theorizing of last night has completely tanked. Sarajevo won 2-1 at Genk, Elfsborg won 1-0 at Debrecen. Take a moment to recall that in the past three years, teams in this situation had 0 wins, 2 draws and 9 losses. Today they took 2 wins, along with some of my money. Makes me want to puke. Really. Quick look at the three games that fell into my previous theory (dogs of +1 or more at even money or better: Pyunik +1 +105...LOST 0-2 Zeta +2 +107..."Pushing" 0-2, 80TH MINUTE By the time this last game kicked off, Zeta was +2.5 for -150, which would not have been a play. The other dogs, juiced and so no play: Beitar Jerusalam +1, -122, PUSH 0-1 Sarajevo +1.5, -143, WIN 2-1 Hmm. OK, so where do we go from here? Tomorrow's games have no plays in the Big Dog model; there's a +1 and a +2 for -190 or something. In today's crappy theory, Besiktas is -2, +118, which I wouldn't take, and Red Star Belgrade over Levadia Talinn, which Greek isn't offering a line for. I'm going to take a look at Thursday's UEFA Cup games...Greek won't post a line on those until late tomorrow probably.

[impressivegol]

Re: CL qual - 1st leg (Tue 31/7 - Wed 1/8) thanks for your research and input allthethings

[Mazarin]

Re: CL qual - 1st leg (Tue 31/7 - Wed 1/8) Would have been nice to have the under 2,5 in tonights games. Maybe that's how I'll play it tomorrow as the teams at this level seem fairly evenly matched. No more picking winners, that's for sure.

[spgore]

Re: CL qual - 1st leg (Tue 31/7 - Wed 1/8)

Does anyone have any team news for the Rangers-Zeta match? Tempted to do Zeta AH +2.5 @ 1.98 on Betfair' date=' but need some news first. Personally can not see Rangers thumping them, and only winning 2-0 or similar.[/quote'] If only I had done the correct score instead of AH :lol. Still can't grumble :nana.

[zengy]

Re: CL qual - 1st leg (Tue 31/7 - Wed 1/8) Why cant you just learn?' You should never bet against teams from Balkan...they always knew how to play football...bet on Genk again in Sarajevo and again lose all of your money.))

[allthethings]

Re: CL qual - 1st leg (Tue 31/7 - Wed 1/8) Champions League Soccer - FH Hafnarfjordur/Bate Borislov - total Over 2 (-185) for the regulation time held on Aug 1 at 1:30pm [pending] Whoa. Lotta juice. But the Icelanders are big scorers and they're at home, where they need to put in a big performance before having to cross the continent for the return leg. BATE can score some goals, too, so I'll be very surprised if this one doesn't at least push. When the line gets to 2.5 +108 later, I'll take some of that, too. This will probably--probably--be my only play for tomorrow.

[nastro 1888]

Re: CL qual - 1st leg (Tue 31/7 - Wed 1/8)

Does anyone have any team news for the Rangers-Zeta match? Tempted to do Zeta AH +2.5 @ 1.98 on Betfair' date=' but need some news first. Personally can not see Rangers thumping them, and only winning 2-0 or similar.[/quote'] :clap

[kimera]

Re: CL qual - 1st leg (Tue 31/7 - Wed 1/8)

Champions League Soccer - FH Hafnarfjordur/Bate Borislov - total Over 2 (-185) for the regulation time held on Aug 1 at 1:30pm [pending] Whoa. Lotta juice. But the Icelanders are big scorers and they're at home, where they need to put in a big performance before having to cross the continent for the return leg. BATE can score some goals, too, so I'll be very surprised if this one doesn't at least push. When the line gets to 2.5 +108 later, I'll take some of that, too. This will probably--probably--be my only play for tomorrow.

Looking at the results yesterday I have to say I agree with you on this one. Many matches ends in highly unpredicted ways (ref. Lillestrøm and Genk), and when the value is low, why bother? The over/under bets looks like the best choices to make today. Since this being your trademark, seeing you have collected some good info, any thoughts about the other matches?

[allthethings]

Re: CL qual - 1st leg (Tue 31/7 - Wed 1/8)

Looking at the results yesterday I have to say I agree with you on this one. Many matches ends in highly unpredicted ways (ref. Lillestrøm and Genk)' date=' and when the value is low, why bother? The over/under bets looks like the best choices to make today. Since this being your trademark, seeing you have collected some good info, any thoughts about the other matches?[/quote'] I've checked the past three years, which is still a small sample but I wanted to see whether any patterns emerged...and few did, really. Unders still seem the better bet on the whole because blowouts seem rare. When one team is favored by 2.5 goals, putting the O/U at 3.5 (this would be a situation like Rangers/Zeta yesterday), there are good chances that the favored home team will go into cruise control, and the away team will put up enough of a fight to keep the game close. Of course, there are going to be games where the home team "puts on a show" for its fans, but on the whole they're inclined to conserve energy, work the bench players. My theory is that a good game for overs is one that gives you two chances to win: Either one team dominates the game by not letting up once they get the lead (3-0), or the teams get to 3 competitively (2-1 or 1-2...or 2-2). One of the reasons I usually avoid the Sweden and England premier leagues is the 2-0 final score. (In Denmark, Norway, and other countries, this seems to happen less often.) The trouble with Euro championships is that if the away team is the favorite, they sometimes play carefully, hoping to go home with a draw...and if the home team is favorite, they might focus on not conceding the important away goal. Anyway...as for today, I think the game I've chosen is one that both teams are competitive and both attack. Hafnarfjordur really must win here and imo they'll have trouble not conceding; if they give up 1 they'll want to score 2. BATE might play defensively but against an attacking team will either give up 1 goal or counter-attack their way to 2 themselves. The over 2 seems very safe to me, and the 2.5 worth the gamble once the line gets there. The best of the other games is Domzale vs Dinamo Zagreb, currently -161 for over 2, which seems a similar bet, but I don't know why I've hesitated. It's probably this low a line because of the previous round, where Zagreb played a 1-1 draw in its first game at Khazar, where they were expected to win big, and Domzale opened with a 1-0 at home against Tirana. I didn't see either game, but the results don't fill me with confidence that both teams will play aggressively. Maybe though that this is second round and the teams are evenly matched, Zagreb will revert to its in-season form (they score more than 2 a game over their last 10). You know what? Somebody just hit the under, so I'm going to take the over here too now that the price has dropped. Soccer - Domzale/Dinamo Zagreb - total Over 2 (-141) for the regulation time held on Aug 1 at 1:15pm [pending]

[allthethings]

Re: CL qual - 1st leg (Tue 31/7 - Wed 1/8) Zagreb is the favored team here...sort of...the game is DNB but the money is going to Zagreb. If Zagreb gets the away goal Domzale will have to attack. Worst-case scenario for this bet is Domzale get the first goal, and then drop back into defensive mode, but even still Zagreb is a team that should be able to equalise. The price is now much better. The other game that caught my eye was Ventspils-Salzburg. Better than even money for 2.5. Ventspils had all sorts of trouble containing TNS in the first round, and Salzburg has conceded a lot of goals early in the Austrian season. However, the question is whether this is a real change in their team; Salzburg was a very good defensive team last year, and they often won 1-0, 2-0 on the road. Also I notice Zilina vs Slavia is O 2, -164. I won't take this as I know nothing about the teams, but did anybody see Zilina's 5-4 game against Dudelange?

[kimera]

Re: CL qual - 1st leg (Tue 31/7 - Wed 1/8)

Zagreb is the favored team here...sort of...the game is DNB but the money is going to Zagreb. If Zagreb gets the away goal Domzale will have to attack. Worst-case scenario for this bet is Domzale get the first goal, and then drop back into defensive mode, but even still Zagreb is a team that should be able to equalise. The price is now much better. The other game that caught my eye was Ventspils-Salzburg. Better than even money for 2.5. Ventspils had all sorts of trouble containing TNS in the first round, and Salzburg has conceded a lot of goals early in the Austrian season. However, the question is whether this is a real change in their team; Salzburg was a very good defensive team last year, and they often won 1-0, 2-0 on the road. Also I notice Zilina vs Slavia is O 2, -164. I won't take this as I know nothing about the teams, but did anybody see Zilina's 5-4 game against Dudelange?

Very nice work! Thanks for the input...:ok