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STT's play theory, call or fold early with a premium pocket pair


robilaruk
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Am trying to play around with how aggressive you need to be early to win an STT some assumptions 1) you are a better than average player at your level (say the $11), and know that by playing solid you can reach at least the top 5 (your stats show that over 3000 games your ROI is 30%+) 2) you generally play ultra tight first 3 levels, picking your spots when you need to 3) you have a sufficient bankroll (at least 80 buy in's) to absorb some variance Ok its level 1, 5th hand in and you are dealt QQ in ep - you have noticed that the standard raise of 4 BB is ignored and gets 3/4 callers, so you make it 150 to go (5BB). A person in MP who hasn't played a hand shoves for his 1500 (you have no notes on them), the player on the button calls for about 1400, his notes read: "solid player early" whats you play? would you call against 2 with QQ? is this the time to get aggressive and triple up, giving you an excellent chance of at least making the money Damo

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Re: STT's play theory, call or fold early with a premium pocket pair Sounds like the Button has a premium premium pair - AA or KK ... it's hard to lay down QQ pre flop, but it's probably the right thing to do.....

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Re: STT's play theory, call or fold early with a premium pocket pair Its an STT there be another along in a minute, look at it as though its a rebuy - (they could both be holding Ace - X which puts you in a great postion) If I'm a better than average player and making a regular profit then why concern over this single game look at the bigger picture

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Re: STT's play theory, call or fold early with a premium pocket pair Its a fold for me, at best your in a race but i think probably behind. i'm not guilty of laying down such a big hand but as you say wait for a better opportunity.

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Re: STT's play theory, call or fold early with a premium pocket pair what Ax would you put the button on? Damo

Its an STT there be another along in a minute, look at it as though its a rebuy - (they could both be holding Ace - X which puts you in a great postion) If I'm a better than average player and making a regular profit then why concern over this single game look at the bigger picture
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Re: STT's play theory, call or fold early with a premium pocket pair How recent are your notes on him? What range of hands do you put him on? QQ/KK/AA/AK? Assuming you add to the notes every time you play and he is a rock I'd consider folding. It's tougher to make a judgement call against a player in abstract like this y'see because it seems the question you are asking isn't a poker question, but rather a player question.

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Re: STT's play theory, call or fold early with a premium pocket pair they are recent and yes when I say solid he isn't calling with 10 10 AJs etc so his range is narrow re question: isn't it the same? - you have a read on a player and have the 3rd best hand in the game, so is it worth risking the buy in this early with this kind of hand to triple up? or given our intial premise, are we better to fold and play the game through? Damo

How recent are your notes on him? What range of hands do you put him on? QQ/KK/AA/AK? Assuming you add to the notes every time you play and he is a rock I'd consider folding. It's tougher to make a judgement call against a player in abstract like this y'see because it seems the question you are asking isn't a poker question, but rather a player question.
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Re: STT's play theory, call or fold early with a premium pocket pair Based on your read I am thinking it is a laydown for me. I'm thinking better spots to come even though you have a top 3/4 hand. Ignoring the MP then the solid player cold calling all-in screams of being a monster (or a mis-click) and I'm thinking the same range as Mr V. Either well behind, a coinflip or a split with the button. I am not sure he would even call the all-in with AK in the first level. Another way of looking at this, using a $10 SNG example, is to use a decision tree. If you call :- Lets say you lose 67% of the time and win 33% of the time. [We could refine this with pokerstove.] You EV is :- 1. 0.67 * 0 2. 0.33 * 0.45 * $50 [you win the SNG 45% of the time you call and triple up] 3. 0.33 * 0.3 * $30 [you come 2nd in the SNG 30% of the time you call and triple up] 4. 0.33 * 0.15 * $20 [you come 3rd in the SNG 15% of the time you call and triple up] 5. 0.33 * 0.1 * $0 [you triple up but still don't make the money] Therefore the call decision (assuming your entry fee is sunk) has a +EV of $11.38 The other option is to fold becasue you think you will get better spots. I've estimated your 1st, 2nd, 3rd places based on being a 30% winning player. Roughly :- 1. 13% * $50 - you come 1st 2. 13% * $30 - you come 2nd 3. 13% * $20 - you come 3rd Out the money 61% of the time. Using these assumptions the fold decision has an EV of $13. Therefore a slight advantage to folding over calling. Apologies if my maths is flawed but I think you get my drift. Be interested to see this analysis populated with your thoughts on the probabilities. What this doesn't take into account is that if you bust you can start another where you have an EV of ~ $3.30. This would swing the imbalance back towards calling - making it somewhat of a coinflip. Not a clear decision. As it is so close, maybe on reflection you should push. FBF

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Re: STT's play theory, call or fold early with a premium pocket pair I think it's a fairly clear fold. You don't just have to beat the button's premium hand, you also have to beat whatever the original shover has. For what it's worth, here's what the Independent Chip Model gives, assuming a $50/$30/$20 prize structure, and ignoring the possibility of a split pot: If you fold, you're left with about 1350 chips, against one player with about 3150 and seven with about 1500. The ICM gives your tournament equity as $9.28. If you call and win, you have about 4500 chips, against seven players with about 1500. The ICM gives your tournament equity as $25.50. If these figures are accurate, you need more than a 36% chance of winning to make calling a +EV decision, and I don't think you have anywhere near that. Of course, the ICM doesn't take into account the relative abilities of the players. But if you're better than average, I think that's another argument in favour of folding.

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Re: STT's play theory, call or fold early with a premium pocket pair I think calling here is just throwing away money in a STT. In worst scenario a solid early player would have AK which even in a HU situation is almost a coin flip. Most of the time I just try to get in the money and by being patient and observing the calling stations you can almost double up anytime and if there are no stations you can steal your way into the money when the table shortens.

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Re: STT's play theory, call or fold early with a premium pocket pair

Is this an actual hand that occurred or a fictional scenario - I'm just curious if theres a right or wrong answer.
Whether a real or fictitious hand, the "right or wrong" answer will come from analysis of the hand as provided slapdash or Fatboyfat .... NOT by what actually happened in the hand ..... as we know - anything can happen in one hand - they might both have 72o and hit full houses!!! But that doesn't mean you are wrong to call all in against 72o x 2!!! Concentrate on making the right decisions, not what actually happens after you have made the decisions ....
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Re: STT's play theory, call or fold early with a premium pocket pair

If these figures are accurate, you need more than a 36% chance of winning to make calling a +EV decision, and I don't think you have anywhere near that.
Actually, I just did a few experiments on Poker Stove, and it's closer than I thought, though I'd still fold.
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Re: STT's play theory, call or fold early with a premium pocket pair Fold. Assuming the blinds are 10/20 and given you have raised 150 showing the strength of your hand to have two all ins after you makes it a fold. I would make the fold even without player notes but seeing as the notes say one of the two is a good player confirms the fold. If it was just one player then call and be heads up but two makes it likely you are beat. Even if you win and triple up by the time you get to the business end of the STT when blinds are 400/800 having 4500 no means guarantees going through

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Re: STT's play theory, call or fold early with a premium pocket pair this exact example? purely fictional - tho it is based on something similar that did happen (and I will get to post later :)) Am purely posting this trying to find what folks think is the correct strategy at early levels and whether there is any merit/drawback to getting AI PF with a premium hand and taking your chances etc So I am actually trying to figure out what the best way to play is, given what we know, so there is not a right or wrong answer, but a 'best play option' Cheers Damo

Is this an actual hand that occurred or a fictional scenario - I'm just curious if theres a right or wrong answer.
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Re: STT's play theory, call or fold early with a premium pocket pair Thank all for the replies so far. IMHO I would have to lay down QQ here, its too vulnerable against 2 oppo's. If I was just up aginst the MP shove I would call, against the solid player, I would need to think about it if he shoved. can we tweak this a bit please? (I'll post actually what happened next time:D ) its the same scenario and same play as before except you are holding KK this time - does you play change from either

  • a gut feeling
or
  • the maths?

cheers Damo

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Re: STT's play theory, call or fold early with a premium pocket pair I would surely call that because it is beating more hands (AK for example which is an all-in hand for amateurs) so it should be fine by the maths. Actually I called it today and this happened. ***** El 620213383 ***** 15.00/30.00 Texas Hold'em (No Limit) - Friday, May 18, 2007 1:05:05 PM STT $3 NL (Gerçek/Turnuva) Koltuk 1: Hyper7 (3060.00) Koltuk 2: piotrstryk (2055.00) Koltuk 3: Skovs+ (1230.00) Koltuk 4: stefanu84 (1380.00) Koltuk 5: Fyfanek (1440.00) Koltuk 6: JROCK999 (1410.00) Koltuk 7: Kategat1 (285.00) Koltuk 8: murkaka (1500.00) Koltuk 9: chrome90 (1500.00) Koltuk 10: paradon (1140.00) Kategat1 post SB 15.00 murkaka post BB 30.00 ** Bahis ** Hyper7 [N/A, N/A] piotrstryk [N/A, N/A] Skovs+ [N/A, N/A] stefanu84 [N/A, N/A] Fyfanek [N/A, N/A] JROCK999 [N/A, N/A] Kategat1 [N/A, N/A] murkaka [Kka, Kku] chrome90 [N/A, N/A] paradon [N/A, N/A] *** Bahis Turu 1 *** chrome90 Gör 30.00 paradon Gör 30.00 Hyper7 Çekil piotrstryk Çekil Skovs+ Çekil stefanu84 Çekil Fyfanek Gör 30.00 JROCK999 Şuna artır 120.00 Kategat1 Çekil murkaka Şuna artır 450.00 chrome90 Çekil paradon Gör 450.00 Fyfanek Gör 450.00 JROCK999 Şuna artır 780.00 murkaka Gör 780.00 paradon Gör 780.00 Fyfanek All-in 1440.00 JROCK999 All-in 1410.00 murkaka Gör 1440.00 paradon All-in 1140.00 *** Flop(Board): *** : [Qku, 2s, 8m] *** Sıra(Board): *** : [Qku, 2s, 8m, 6ka] *** River(Board): *** : [Qku, 2s, 8m, 6ka, 4m] *** Hodri Meydan *** : Rake: 0.00 Total Pot: 5475.00 Hyper7 Çekil Kazanç: 0.00 piotrstryk Çekil Kazanç: 0.00 Skovs+ Çekil Kazanç: 0.00 stefanu84 Çekil Kazanç: 0.00 Fyfanek [Am, Jm] En yüksek kart as Kazanç: 0.00 JROCK999 [Jku, Js] Per valeler Kazanç: 0.00 Kategat1 Çekil Kazanç: 0.00 murkaka [Kka, Kku] Per papazlar Kazanç: 5475.00 chrome90 Çekil Kazanç: 0.00 paradon [7s, As] En yüksek kart as Kazanç: 0.00

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Re: STT's play theory, call or fold early with a premium pocket pair my read is that one of the players is solid - would he risk his buy in with AK? and even if he did, AK vs KK will beat it it one time in three (dependant on suits) - so is it worth the call against AK and what the other villian has? Damo

I would surely call that because it is beating more hands (AK for example which is an all-in hand for amateurs) so it should be fine by the maths. Actually I called it today and this happened.
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Re: STT's play theory, call or fold early with a premium pocket pair interesting, do you think the buy-in matters? if it was a $109 would you fold? just wondering whether the buy-in makes a difference to the 'best play option' :ok Cheers Damo

KK and I think you have to call.....At this level' date=' I'm not sure I can ever lay KK down pre flop....[/quote']
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Re: STT's play theory, call or fold early with a premium pocket pair Yes the buy in is significant for me, given no other reads on the players.... At lower buy ins, I think players have a wider range of hands that they are prepared to reraise with ...... I think that the range of hands where they consider themselves "unbeatable" is greater (even extending to the likes of 77 :loon :loon)

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Re: STT's play theory, call or fold early with a premium pocket pair thanks for the answer interesting that you say that the $109's have less muppets ;) in general I would agree with you - only 3 muppets rather than 5 :ok However the buy-in should not affect our judgment/discussion - its about making the best play option, every time Damo

Yes the buy in is significant for me, given no other reads on the players.... At lower buy ins, I think players have a wider range of hands that they are prepared to reraise with ...... I think that the range of hands where they consider themselves "unbeatable" is greater (even extending to the likes of 77 :loon :loon)
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Re: STT's play theory, call or fold early with a premium pocket pair

However the buy-in should not affect our judgment/discussion - its about making the best play option, every time
I agree, and I expect GaF would too, that the buy-in is more or less irrelevant, except in so far as it affects our judgement of what our opponents are likely to do. I've just been playing a freeroll, and I played (correctly, I think) differently from how I would have played in a $100 tournament, just because my expectations of the opposition were different. By the way, with KK I would call. Unless the caller is extremely tight (would only call with AA or KK, say) I can't envisage having less than about a 40% chance of winning the hand.
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Re: STT's play theory, call or fold early with a premium pocket pair If you were an excellent and profitable player at $100 buy in games, how often would you play $10 games? I think the point is that if you can beat a level, then you will try a higher level, and you will keep doing that until you find a level you cannot beat.... So the better you are, generally, the higher buy in you play.... Of course, there are "idiots with more money than sense" at all levels,but I'm pretty certain that the higher the level you play at, the more "sharks" and fewer "fish" there are. Why doesn't the mole play 5c/10c poker? Because he's too good for it - he crushed that level and moved on upwards. The "bad players" dont make enough money (indeed lose) so dont have the bankroll to move on upwards.....

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Re: STT's play theory, call or fold early with a premium pocket pair side trekking slightly here I am a good player, but one that cannot beat the $109's consistently to make money without putting my BR at risk - and I tried for 6 months - and i saw some awful play there - I can understand aggressive play at cash tables, but not levels 1 and 2 of an STT anyhoo back to the question :) just wondering how often KK holds up against someone playing JJ+ AK and another villian with a semi decent holding say 99+ Ak -AJ Damo

If you were an excellent and profitable player at $100 buy in games, how often would you play $10 games? IOf course, there are "idiots with more money than sense" at all levels,but I'm pretty certain that the higher the level you play at, the more "sharks" and fewer "fish" there are.
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Re: STT's play theory, call or fold early with a premium pocket pair

just wondering how often KK holds up against someone playing JJ+ AK and another villian with a semi decent holding say 99+ Ak -AJ
49.4% of the time, according to Poker Stove. Assuming I understand your notation: by "Ak -AJ" do you mean AK, AQ or AJ?
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Re: STT's play theory, call or fold early with a premium pocket pair yes SD - thanks so half the time we will go out if we call - very interesting not sure I want to call anymore LOL Damo

49.4% of the time, according to Poker Stove. Assuming I understand your notation: by "Ak -AJ" do you mean AK, AQ or AJ?
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Re: STT's play theory, call or fold early with a premium pocket pair slap - do you put a range of hands into pokerstove? :unsure Edit Ooops - just seen the Preflop tab - never saw that before :unsure

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