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Mowgli77 Notebook Thread (FLAT 2010)

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mowgli77

mowgli77

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Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread

A question .. what happens when you play an e/w bet in a 5 horse race and later they are reduced to 4? Does the first two count for a place? What happens with the place part of the bet?
Good question Mileni, id' think the place part would be void with just the win part still running. Maybe one of our resident bookies on here can tell us?
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wicked

wicked

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Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread

the place part transfers to the win so the full stake goes on all to win
Unless of course you're using the exchanges in which case the number of places stands but with the price adjusted to cater for the non runner.
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mileni4uk

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Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread

Unless of course you're using the exchanges in which case the number of places stands but with the price adjusted to cater for the non runner.
Yeah, that's clear. Didn't know what happens with a normal e/w bet. I do now, thanks!
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mowgli77

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Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread

7:15 arrow_next_race.gif BETFAIR BRIGADIER GERARD STAKES (GROUP 3) (CLASS 1) (4yo+) Winner £28,390.00 A very tricky looking race in which Papal Bull looks unlikely to be able to cope with the Group 2 penalty and has not performed convincingly this season. Tam Lin has a questionable attitude and has been to known to flash it's tail, could give up the ghost if shown the whip and unproven on softer ground. Fire and Rain looks totally outclassed, as does Take A Bow and can be easily opposed. Mighty loves the trip but wasn't good enough when stepped up to listed and Group 3 class and is unproven on softer ground, although trainer thinks conditions will be fine. That leaves Mashaaahed and Pinpoint. Mashaahed has good form behind Red Rocks in its seasonal reappearance and that has been boosted by Notnowcato also winning recently but is very short at around 9-4. Pinpoint looks progressive and listed/group 3 class was the obvious progression as it kept impressing in class 2 handicap company.It has placed on soft and good to soft but needs improvement tonight. A tricky looking race but the tentative selection is Pinpoint. PINPOINT - 5 PTS WIN @ 7-2 (tote, bluesquare, stan james) 1m2f7y GD-SFT
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mowgli77

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Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread 4:20 VODAFONE DERBY STAKES (GROUP 1) (ENTIRE COLTS & FILLIES) (CLASS 1) (3yo) Winner £709,750.00 1m4f10y GD-SFT 19 runners but the race revolves around one horse - Authorized, and one jockey – Dettori. We’ll know by tomorrow if this is the real deal and if Frankie Dettori can finally achieve his dream of winning the Epsom Derby at the 15th attempt. It was the most impressive in the Derby trials when destroying the field in the Dante. That was not such a great race and it’s hard to know what it beat but you can’t question the way it travelled that day and quickened up in style, immediately giving it favourite status for this race. It will get the trip and it will go on the ground so if handling the undulations of Epsom it has to have a favourites chance but is very short priced in a field of this size. There are many horses that don’t look good enough and it seems strange that Aidan O’Brien does not come here with one specific strong fancy, instead opting to run 8 horses, some with better chances than others. Mick Kinane has the experience necessary to win a race like this and takes the ride on Archipenko, who won comfortably last time out over 1m2f and previously won in good style on soft at Leopardstown in a maiden race. It beat other well fancied horses over the 1m2f with a bit in hand and looks one of the most likely O’Brien horses to trouble the favourite. O’Brien also runs Eagle Mountain, which ran a fine race in the 2000 Guineas, finishing 5th and it wasn’t tiring that day. It should be suited by the step up in trip and managed to get 4th place behind Authorized in last years Racing Post Trophy and has to reverse that form. It also won a Group 2 on soft by 7 lengths and finished only a head behind Teofilo in a maiden, which was favourite for the race for a long time. Nice each way opportunity at around 12-1 and likely to be backed in early. Soldier of Fortune is another O’Brien horse that doesn’t seem so well fancied but was spoken highly of by Mick Kinane after riding it to victory at Chester in a Group 3 race over this trip. It shouldn’t have a problem with the trip, having won over 12f and 11f and has won on good and good to soft ground. It also seems to have a bit of class, winning in Group 2 and Group 3 company and being 2nd in a Group 1 race. May not be stables first string but looks to have a live chance at a big price. Regime only finished 7th behind Authorized in last years Racing Post Trophy but returned this season over 10f and won a Group 3 comfortably. Hard to know the strength of that form and does not possess winning form at the top level. Probably outclassed but one of the less fancied horses that might get involved at a decent price. Aqaleem should get the trip, comes from last years winning connections and has had a recent spin out at Lingfield, which seems like ideal preparations for this left handed, undulating course. Another one though that doesn’t have form at the top level and has only managed to win a Group 3 and that form has been knocked recently. It’s hard to fancy many of the others as they seem to fall short of having top class credentials and there are question marks either regarding class, distance or ground. It’s hard to see past Authorized and it would be good for racing for Dettori to finally get into the winners enclosure after this race and treat us all to a flying dismount. There will be a lot of support for his horse from the part time punters but they are not going to get rich with a pound win on an odds on favourite and many will look elsewhere for each way value. Suggested bets: 5PTS EW – Archipenko (9-1 Ladbrokes) 5PTS EW – Soldier Of Fortune (18-1 Tote and SkyBet) 5PTS EW – Eagle Mountain (14-1 SportingOdds) 20PTS WIN - AUTHORIZED (Evens PaddyPower) 50PTS STAKED

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mowgli77

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Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread

great preview & well done on the profit' date=' it was a difficult day today[/quote'] WTF happened with Archipenko? I was concentrating on the front of the field, didn't even see that trail in last. Was too busy jumping around for Dettori and Authorized.
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mowgli77

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Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread Not my favourite races but I'm going to have a go at the 6f race at Windsor tonight: 8.00 Windsor (LISTED RACE) (CLASS 1) (3yo+) Winner £14,762.80 6f GD-FM Horse by horse analysis Bygone Days Beat tonight’s favourite Borderlescott in a Group 3 on good to soft last October but before that had just been mixing it in handicap company. Has plenty of wins over the distance and on the going and the one win tried at Group 3 level but now has to concede 7lbs all round. Trainers comments suggest it will need this run and has other more important targets that it is aimed at and has a couple of Group 1 entries. Might go close but more likely to score after this race. Assertive Finished 5th last time out in a Group 2 behind the very well thought of Amadeus Wolf and was only around 2 lengths behind that day. Has a decent record in class 1 company with 2 wins, 3 seconds and 3 thirds. Has won on good to firm but seems to prefer good ground but 6f seems ideal and this also has Group 1 entries. Has run very respectably at group level and steps down in class to listed company where others step up from handicaps. Trainer seems to fancy its chances and it’s a course and distance winner. 2nd highest Topspeed rating. Balthazaar’s Gift Another course and distance winner that was outclassed in Group 1 contests on heavy and good ground but was a very good 2nd to Les Arcs on good to firm at Ascot last June, again in a Group 1 race. Cumani’s horses always seem better for a run or two and the last 2 runs have been over 7f, when 6f looks to suit better. Only a 4-year-old but already picked up £185k of prize money from 14 career starts. Winning form is on softer ground but that fine 2nd to Les Arcs was on good to firm and could be a leading sprinter this year. Baltic King Outclassed in several group contests but has won at listed level. More experienced than many of these at 7 year old but also less likely to have potential for improvement. Definitely goes on the ground but needs a strong pace and likely to be caught by one of the younger horses. 3rd highest Topspeed rating. Course and distance winner of a listed contest but that was back in 2005. Borderlescott 5 year old now but was improving all the time last year in handicap company without managing to win at a level above that. Turned over by Sierra Vista over 6f in a class 2 race last time out but that was seasonal comeback so likely to come on for that run and that form looks solid with Sierra Vista winning since in a Group 2 race. Has the highest Topspeed rating, plenty of Group 1 entries and another likely to be winning in Group races this season. Loves the ground and trip but lacks form at this level and yet to prove it is good enough in this grade. Fayr Jag Was a great horse but is 8 year old now and has not won in it’s last 8 races, at Group 2, Group 3 and class 3 level. Loves the trip and the ground and has form in class 1 company, even winning a Group 1 in 2004. In the last 6 years the race has gone to horses aged 4, 5 and 6 and looks to be past it now at this kind of level, up against improving horses. Kostar Another horse stepping up from handicap company to try it’s luck at listed level but the trainer seems confident that the horse is good enough and stresses that it needs the ground to dry out. 0 wins on good to soft and 4 wins on good to firm seem to support that stance. Has an excellent record here and from 5 runs it has come 1st, 2nd and 3rd. Has form over the distance and ran well in a class 2 handicap at Pontefract when beating Mr Wolf. Untried at listed level so hard to say if it will be good enough but last in the same race as Borderlescott last time out that was won by Sierra Vista, which might be due to the good ground. Jockey gets on well with the horse and if the trainer’s expectations are correct it could be involved at a good price. Prince Woodman Hard to know what to expect in a listed contest when the horse has only run twice, winning a class 4 maiden and coming 6th of 8 in the same race as two of it’s market rivals. Has won on good to soft and over 6f but hard to fancy without knowing much about the horse. Doesn’t have any Group entries and likely to be outclassed tonight. Something Best form seems to be over 7 furlongs and up to class 2 level but those wins were on the all weather surface at Lingfield. Has been gelded but has not run for 394 days and likely to need the run after such a long break. Has tried it’s luck at Group 2 and Group 3 level but well outclassed and finished nearer last than first. Last run was similar conditions to this over 6f on good to firm and only managed to be 16th of 26 in a class 2 race. Unlikely to be good enough today. Summary: Borderlescott looks like it will have a fine season and should finally win in listed/group company but it has a similar profile to Kostar, with both stepping up from handicaps and seems too short at 13-8 when it is so far unproven as good enough. Assertive has similar ratings and is more value at around 4-1 with Kostar looking like a good each way bet at around 20-1. Balthazaar’s Gift is also a big price and worthy of ew interest for a stable going well in a quite open looking race that may see a few surprises. Suggested bets: 5 PTS EW - Assertive (4-1 generally) 5 PTS EW - Balthazaars Gift (16-1 Skybet) 5 PTS EW - Kostar (28-1 Stan James) 30 PTS Staked :hope

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mowgli77

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Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread

Shame really' date=' ended up being a saver.[/quote'] Yes, I was thinking about only putting that one up that won but could see one of the bigger priced ones springing a surprise. Never mind, level for that race. :ok
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mowgli77

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Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread Last race was 30pts staked 30pts returned. New Bank 314 pts from Starting Bank of 200pts Selections 18 Winners/Places 8 Losers 10 Strike Rate 44% Profit/Loss + 114pts Saturday 9th June 2007 - Todays write up: 3:25 EMPIRE PROPERTY GROUP ON THE HOUSE STAKES (LISTED RACE) (CLASS 1) (3yo+) Winner £17,034.00 1m GD-FM Horse by horse analysis Army Of Angels Capable at this level but only won by a neck last time out in a small field listed race and that was on softer ground. Conditions were ideal that day but unsure whether it will take to this much faster ground. Has won at this level and over the trip but not on good to firm ground and is up against others with better looking credentials. Nayyir Course and distance winner but now 9 year old and has seen better days. Doesn’t seem too suited to the mile trip as last few runs over this trip have seen it finish 7/10, 8/9 and 13/17. Good track record with 8 runs, 2 wins and 2 seconds and no ground concerns but the last few years have seen this race go to younger horses. Probably past its best now and hard to fancy today. Babodana Has not run on good to firm in its last 12 runs and when it did it was 21st out of 30 in a class 2 handicap. 4 course runs resulting in no wins or places. Likes the trip but never won on good to firm and unlikely to be involved in any prize money today. Dunelight Only ever had one run at Goodwood and was placed and has a great record over a mile reading 8 runs, 3 wins, 2 seconds and 2 thirds. Only ever won once on good to firm but has placed efforts on the ground too. 3rd of 5 last time out to the very capable Cesare in a listed event. Faded 1f out in a 9f race behind Manduro, which was a Group 3 event. Only 4 year old, races prominently and capable of the improvement to win at this level. Raptor Has run well enough in Germany and made a good debut effort in the Lincoln handicap to finish 4th on softer ground. Most of its winning German form was on soft or heavy ground and unsure how it will take to much faster ground. Never won over a mile, RP analysis reported it didn’t have the speed for a 1m handicap last time out and looked to need further yet it has won over 7f previously. Too many question marks to get involved. Vanderlin Jet setter that has raced all over the world and has often looked better over 7f. Its record over 7f reads better than over a mile as it has only ever won once over this trip. Won’t have any problems with the ground or class but is now 8 year old and vulnerable to younger, improving horses. 4th of 9 on seasonal re appearance but never had any chance of winning. Supersonic Dave The young pretender of the bunch and has only had 2 career runs. Won it’s maiden in fair style and winners have come from that race at handicap level. Immediately stepped up to listed class over 10f and was 3 ½ lengths behind Lucarno but that form boosted when Lucarno finished 4th in the Derby. That was a fine effort on good to firm but unsure if drop back to 1m will suit. Will clearly improve this season but taking on older, more experienced horses today. Interesting to see how much improvement we can expect. Analysis: Trends suggest the winner will be 5 or under and Godolphin won this race last year with Satchem. Favourites also have a good record with past winners scoring at 13-8, 2-5 and 10-11 but I don’t feel Army of Angels is that good on this ground or in this class and will oppose it. The form of Supersonic Dave was given that timely boost by Lucarno and if it has the necessary improvement it could win today but Meehan’s horses are not in the best of form. I am inclined to go for Dunelight as I feel the 2 runs will have put it spot on for today and it can finally get off the mark at this level. Note: Vanderlin has just been announced as a non-runner, resulting in odds tumbling for most selections. Suggested bets: 10pts WIN - Dunelight (5-1 Bet365 BOG) Additional bet (not part of the thread) 2.5pts Rev FC Dunelight and Supersonic Dave

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mowgli77

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Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread New Bank 364 pts from Starting Bank of 200pts Selections 19 Winners/Places 9 Losers 10 Strike Rate 47% Profit/Loss + 164pts :cow :nana :cow :nana :cow :nana :cow :nana :cow :nana :cow :nana Who needs tipping services when you've got Punters Lounge???

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RussP

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Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread

New Bank 364 pts from Starting Bank of 200pts Selections 19 Winners/Places 9 Losers 10 Strike Rate 47% Profit/Loss + 164pts
Phil, As usual, great stuff mate. One question (I'm being an annoying bastid!).....could you post up yield figures too? And where does your strike rate figure come from? All that aside, fcuking great profit figure mate:ok
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