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Mowgli77 Notebook Thread (FLAT 2010)

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mowgli77

mowgli77

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Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread 2:45 JUDDMONTE LOCKINGE STAKES (GROUP 1) (CLASS 1) 1m GD-SFT Sir Michael Stoute and Godolphin have dominated the race in the last 10 years and those trainers account for 3 of the 8 runners today. Stoute has Jeremy and Peeress but I don’t think Jeremy will be good enough and I'm willing to oppose this. It has won on soft ground and won a Group 2 race last time out but will need to improve again in this Group 1 race against better horses as it beat nothing last time out and has run poorly on a few occasions with no genuine reason or excuse. Marcus Andronicus is from the respected yard of Aidan O Brien and sees a strange partnership with Richard Hills riding for him today. It does not look like the best from his yard, is yet to win any sort of group race and likely to be outclassed today. Has plenty of Group 1 entries but yet to win over a mile and opposed today. Passager was beaten easily enough into 3rd place on its last 2 runs in France and is unlikely to be good enough for this contest. Its best form is a Group 3 win on good to soft but that is not up to this level and easily opposed for that reason. Ramonti represents the Godolphin stable that has done well in this race. Most of its races have been in Italy and its Group 1 win was against Notability, which I don’t rate as a Group 1 horse. It has run a mile in some quick times and often likes to lead but will be vulnerable to the hold up horses finishing fast unless it kicks clear early on soft ground and can’t be caught but unsure soft ground will suit. Secret World is the horse with high expectations and Group 1 entries that is lightly raced due to having its problems. It impressed on its debut but that was a class 4 race. It has only managed 5th place and 7th place in two Group 3 races and although it might have potential it will have to prove itself before I put any money on it. Peeress has form at the top level, there is no doubting its class and it goes well fresh and goes on the ground. Won this race last year before going on to be beaten by Red Evie, which was improving through the season. Looks to have a great chance of back to back wins in the race but short enough at the odds available. Red Evie is also a course and distance winner that improved in leaps and bounds that included victories in a maiden, handicaps, listed and Group 3 to a Group 1 win over Peeress. 7 wins from 8 races last season, it’s defeat at the end of a long, hard season. Can’t believe this is around 8-1 to 10-1 when it has beaten Peeress and is still improving. Jamie Spencer has rode it 6 times with 5 victories. Main concern would be the ground as best performances were on good to firm but massive price for a horse with such a record and such further potential. Speciosa won last years 1000 Guineas in style and will be better for the last run, which was over 1m1f, and on ground that didn’t suit. That was only a 4-length defeat to Manduro, which set a new course record and softer ground with a furlong less could have seen a different result. It is much better on ground with cut so today’s conditions should be ideal. Much better on a straight track with 3 wins coming at Newmarket and looks overpriced today. With Ramonti looking like it has not beaten much and Peeress looking too short in the betting the suggestion is to take both Red Evie and Speciosa each way with stakes split. 5pts E.W. on each as they look the value selections in the race and both look overpriced for Group 1 winners. The others don’t look quite good enough or have serious question marks over them. 5PTS EW – RED EVIE (9-1 Tote) 5PTS EW - SPECIOSA (11-1 Betfred)

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mowgli77

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Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread Day Flight - Lost Speciosa - Lost Red Evie - Won @ 8-1 (9-1 taken) :nana Annoyed with myself for backing Day Flight, I hate odds on horses but thought it would win. Made a point of the 4 yr old stats and talked myself out of backing Peppertree Lane. Red Evie won well and all the Jamie Spencer haters have to give him some credit for that ride, top class. I'll update totals later.

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RussP

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Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread Sorry Phil, been busy last week or so. Good luck with this thread, it's nice to see you taking the plunge with a specialist thread. Great start too, but its to be expected with the form you are in. Keep it going, mate:ok

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mowgli77

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Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread 2:35 LETHEBY & CHRISTOPHER FESTIVAL STAKES (LISTED RACE) (CLASS 1) Goodwood (4yo+) Winner £14,762.80 1m1f192y GOOD Imperial Star has only raced 6 times due to a back injury and there are too many question marks surrounding its well being to back it with confidence today. It was last of 9 in a Group 3 race last time out (Illustrious Blue was 4th) and it weakened over 9f. The race before that was a convincing win over 1m2f on the all weather so it depends on which horse turns up today. Into The Dark is back after a 210 day break and is likely to start favourite with the Godolphin outfit starting to fire home the winners. The horse has won 3 times on good ground but that was back in 2004. It’s last 2 runs were on good to soft and soft resulting in a 1st and a 2nd, both in listed class and suggests it might need more cut in the ground as it’s most recent run on good to firm saw it only finish 5th of 6 in a class 2 race. It seems better around September/October time and has never won in May. Championship point was 3rd last time out at the Curragh over this trip on good to firm in a Group 3 race. It will need to have improved to win today and always seems to fall short of being good enough. Has not won on last 9 attempts going back to May 2006. In 3 attempts at 1m2f it has only managed a 3rd place. Charlie Cool was last of 16 last time out after being prominent and weakening over a shorter trip of 9f. Most of its races have been at handicap level and it looks outclassed today. 3 attempts to win at class 3 level resulting in two 3rds. Has never won in May or June and only 1 win in its last 8 races. Hard Top probably has the best form of a higher level with a Group 2 win at York back in 2005 but has disappointed in Group 2 races since, finishing 7th, 5th and 5th and 4th of 5 in a listed race. Could not even manage to win a class 2 race last time out over this trip and probably needs further. Not one to rely on today. Illustrious Blue loves it here and from it’s 6 races it has returned as a winner 4 times and 3rd twice. It has run 8 races on good ground, winning 6 and 3rd in another. It has raced 3 times in May, resulting in a 1st, a 2nd and a 3rd. It has never won at listed level or over the 1m2f but has been running on strongly over a furlong shorter. Road To Love is the only course and distance winner in the line up but has been really disappointing lately over 1m on turf and at Nad Al Sheba before the season started. It has looked impressive twice over this distance, including when winning here but they were class 2 races. More suited by the trip today but has never won on good ground and never won in May from 3 attempts. Analysis: I fancy Into The Dark to run a big race on it’s comeback but slight preference is for Illustrious Blue and it can finally win its first listed race. The jockey/trainer partnership has a good strike rate, the horse has had a few runs to get its full fitness and it loves the course. Out of the last 9 years a 4yr old has won the race seven times and the selection also fits that category. It can find the improvement necessary to finally get into the winners enclosure at this level. 10pts WIN - Illustrious Blue (4-1 with most firms)

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mowgli77

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Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread 4-1 Taken. Wins at 11-4. :nana :cow :nana :cow 10PTS Staked 50 PTS Returned +40pts for today New Bank 276 pts from Starting Bank of 200pts Selections 8 Winners 4 Losers 4 Strike Rate 50% Profit/Loss + 76pts

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mowgli77

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Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread Thanks for the support again, let's hope we find more profit today with these in the same race: 3:05 EBF JOAN WESTBROOK PINNACLE STAKES (LISTED RACE) (FILLIES & MARES) (CLASS 1) (4yo+) Winner £19,873.00 1m3f200y GD-FM Horse by horse previews: Maroussies Wings Statistics don’t lie so take a look at these for starters. Never won over the distance, never won on good ground, never won on good to firm ground, never won in May, never won a listed race, never won above class 4 level. Easy to oppose today. Green Room Recent run was seasonal debut on good to firm ground and it came 9th of 9 in a Group 3 race. It finished last season with 3 wins, up to listed class but they were on good, soft and heavy ground. Worrying that it’s comeback run on good to firm saw it run so poorly, especially when it won on firm ground last year. No problem with the trip but has only won up to class 2 level and should find others too good. Abhisheka Not good enough to get involved in a recent Group 3 behind Echelon on good to firm and it’s best recent efforts have been on softer ground. Godolphins horses are still a bit hit and miss at the moment and there are doubts about the trip. Has never won on good, 1 win on good to firm from 3 efforts, no wins from 2 attempts at listed level and only won in class 4 company. Looks outclassed despite it being from Godolphin and won’t be having Frankie on board now he is out injured. Cresta Gold No wins at listed level from 5 attempts and no wins in May from 2 attempts. Has also been tried at class 2 level and failed on 3 occasions. Will be suited by the ground and should have no problems with the trip. Has won over 1m3f+ on 2 occasions and been tried over further. Never seems quite good enough and should be same scenario today. Mango Mischief No doubting its ability at this level as it has run in class 1 contests on 14 occasions, resulting in 2 wins, 3 seconds and 1 third. No ground concerns either with 2 wins and 2 seconds from 7 runs on good to firm. The worry is that it has found nothing on it’s last few runs and at 6 year old is likely to find one of the 4 year olds improving beyond it. Trick Or Treat Won a few class 5 handicaps really well over similar trips before stepping up to class 2 level at York and beating Ask on soft ground. That form looks pretty solid with Ask’s form from the St Leger looking particularly strong, recently boosted by Ask winning again as well as Red Rocks and Sixties Icon. Placed behind Crime Scene in a class 3 contest and that has gone on to win twice at Nad Al Sheba in good style. From 4 runs over 1m4f it has 2 wins and 2 seconds and the similar trip today will be ideal. Has won on soft, good to soft, good and firm but only placed on good to firm. Only had 2 runs at listed level and managed a place, likely to improve and 1st run for 212 days. Wannabe Posh It’s first victory came in a class 5 handicap over 1m4f at Windsor on good to firm ground when winning readily and it finished the season with a string of placed efforts. It often beat the other horses by a few lengths and was only unable to get it’s head in front due to the handicapper showing no leniency but still caught the eye in defeat. 2 wins and a 3rd on good to firm, has won in May, June and July and won at class 2 level last time out over 1m4f on good to firm ground, running on well in the final furlong. Analysis: I think the race will be won by one of the bottom 2 horses as they look the 2 most likely to improve this year and have the potential to win at this level. The Godolphin horse is priced too short and over rated and Mango Mischief shouldn’t be good enough yet again. The 2 selections look the most likely to be involved at the finish so let’s go with both of them. Suggestion: 5 PTS EW – Trick Or Treat (11-1 with Betfred) 10 PTS WIN – Wannabe Posh (4-1 with most firms) 20PTS Staked

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mowgli77

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Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread

1st & 2nd Phil - Quality 11/1 you got, was there a big Rule 4 on that as it finished 7/2!!!
I was unsure what had happened when I heard the SP. Abbisheka was a non runner which hit the profits slightly. 5pts ew returned 58pts after the rule 4. :eek Interesting that they fancied Maroussies Wings on Channel 4, do those stats I put up against it not mean anything? They really don't have a clue at times. :wall I wish I could say I'd also done the forecast but i'd be lying. :wall Well done to anyone getting on Trick Or Treat, I did a lot of homework on that race Friday evening until about 1am and nice when the studying pays off. :) New Bank 314 pts from Starting Bank of 200pts :cow Selections 10 Winners 5 Losers 5 Strike Rate 50% :tongue2 Profit/Loss + 114pts :D
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mowgli77

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Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread SANDOWN 7.15 BET NOW AT WBX.COM HERON STAKES (LISTED RACE) (CLASS 1) (3yo) Winner £14,762.80 1m14y SOFT Horse by horse analysis: Charlie Farnsbarns Has by far the best form on offer and this looks like a Group horse in a listed race. It was 2nd behind Authorized in the Racing Post Trophy in 2006 and that horse is now favourite for the Derby in a week. It also has form from a Group 2 behind Halicarnassus (July 2006) which won well recently and from the same race was He’s A Decoy which just finished 3rd in the Irish 2000 Guineas at the weekend. The 2nd in the Group 1 gives this a clear chance and that was on heavy ground so no problem with soft conditions. Fishforcompliments Hard to find many compliments for a horse that has only ever won a class 5 maiden and is unproven on soft ground. 8th out of 8 and 11th of 19 on good to soft and soft hardly fills you with confidence. It’s best form was 3rd in a listed race over 9f which was probably a furlong too far. Well thought of by the trainer and has a Group 1 Ascot entry but unlikely to be good enough for that race or this one. Jo’Burg Made it’s seasonal reappearance in the 2000 Guineas, soon weakening and finishing 16th of 24. Only managed 8th of 10 in a Group 2 race last August and seems outclassed again here when comparing it to form of the favourite. Hasn’t won over further than 6f but has placed on soft, albeit in a class 4 maiden race. Obviously has more chance of winning a listed race than a Group race but it probably won’t be this one. Massive Should be suited by the ground and jockey reported it was previously unsuited by good to firm. It has won on good to soft, placed on soft and it’s best form is 2nd in a Group 3 on good ground in France. Made it’s seasonal reappearance behind Salford Mill and Heartshead Maison in a listed race on the good to firm it didn’t like. Probably won’t be good enough to beat the favourite but the one most likely to put up any sort of challenge. Norisan Has run once on soft ground in a Group 3 race and finished 7th of 8, always in rear. Has three 3rds at listed level and none of them look anything special. Has a Group 3 Epsom entry and has won twice and finished 3rd over 7 furlongs but never won over a mile from 4 attempts. Can be excused it’s last poor run as the trip of 10f was probably too far but likely to be better on firmer ground. Analysis: Looks to be a penalty kick for the Meehan horse and can get Dettori in the winning mood for Epsom. The trainer always thought Charlie Farnsbarns would be better this year and he can get his 2007 campaign off the mark with a victory here if it’s anywhere near last seasons form. Massive looks the one most likely to make up the forecast and there doesn’t look like there is any ew value in the race now, even more so if Jo’Burg pulls out of the race, with the trainer stating it only runs if the ground is suitable. If it's a ridiculously short price I won't be touching it and especially if it ends up as a 4 runner race. I'll update tomorrow about an hour before the race.

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kevsul

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Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread

Just so I can't be accused of after eventing:
29/05/2007£2.00To Win - Single Internet17:15 LISTED STAKES 1m 14yds Massive 12 - 1Win£26.00£0.00
Better than the £40-£80 or so I was going to have on the fav. :ok
:clap :clap Well Done mate, Never in doubt about you after eventing.. And I know how much you hate them Favs. Peppertree lane springs to mind
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