Jump to content
** March Poker League Result : =1st Bridscott, =1st Like2Fish, 3rd avongirl **
Download the PL Forum App!
** Cheltenham Tipster Competition Result : 1st Old codger, 2nd sirspread, 3rd Bathtime For Rupert **

Mowgli77 Notebook Thread (FLAT 2010)

mowgli77
 Share

Recommended Posts

mowgli77

mowgli77

Posted
Posted

I'm going to concentrate on the better class races that will probably be listed level and above, taking in the top Group races. These will be mainly over 1m2f and 1m4f upwards and I'd expect a lot of the prices to be quite short. I believe the best horses usually win the best races (Passage Of Time today, Finsceal Beo in 1,000 Guineas etc) and I prefer the better races with the smaller fields when trying to pick a classy winner. I try not to bet under 2-1 unless I'm really confident but my 2 biggest bets were on horses under 2-1 at these type of distances in group 1 races. I'll keep a running total of wins/losses, strike rate, profit and returns etc starting with a 200 pt bank, average bets 10 or 20 pts either win or ew depending on price and confidence. First selections run tomorrow at York.

SportHorse Racing
Event2.15 York
SelectionAnna Pavlova
Strength10/10
Date17/05/2007
Bookmaker/PriceLadbrokes @ 2.75 (Back)
ReasoningA lot could depend on how much rain gets into the ground overnight as the forecast tomorrow is for good weather. I think the ground might be softer than Wednesday which would suit Anna Pavlova as it enjoys cut in the ground. Won easily last time out in a listed race worth 32k. Has a great course record, won here on soft, placed here on soft and good. The placed effort here was in a Group 2 race behind Rising Cross which ran respectably Wednesday. Echelon looks to be the main danger but it would need firmer ground and only beat Topatoo by a neck, which looked like a handicapper at best before that last race, which was a muddling affair. Course and distance form together with proven class and recent good form make this todays banker and if the ground gets any softer I could see this getting even shorter.
SportHorse Racing
Event2.45 York
SelectionAuthorized
Strength10/10
Date17/05/2007
Bookmaker/PriceLadbrokes @ 2.00 (Back)
ReasoningMade a slow start on it's debut but finished it's race well and pedigree suggests this type of trip will be more suited than the mile it ran over that day. Made it's debut in a class 2 race rather than a class 5 maiden and then leaped in class to win a Group 1 in great fashion, travelling well and quickening up well with an automatic response when asked for an effort. The form in that Group 1 is pretty solid with Eagle Mountian finishing 5th in the 2000 Guineas giving it a boost. Favourite for the Derby so anything less than a convincing win will see it drift but I think it will take this on the way to Epsom. I think Proponent and Raincoat look bigger dangers than Adagio but need to handle the step up in class and Raincoat has the advantage of a recent run.
Link to comment
Share on other sites
  • Replies 691
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Days

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Days

kevsul

kevsul

Posted
Posted

Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread Good Luck with this. :hope :hope For a profitable future in this. I myself don't study alot of form like you guys do, But I for one do appreciate the effort and hard work that you guys do to try and come up with winners for us.. As I guess everybody else does as well.:ok So hopefully off to a Flyer today..:hope

Link to comment
Share on other sites
mowgli77

mowgli77

Posted
  • Author
Posted

Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread Thanks to everyone for the support. :ok 1 winner and 1 2nd and both ridden by Dettori. One a fantastic patient ride on Authorized :notworthy and the other not so great opting to go up the rail with Anna Pavlova, taking a cheeky look around and then getting nailed on the line. :wall 15pts Authorized 30 pts returned 10pts Anna Pavlova 0 pts returned 25pts staked 30 pts returned Selections 2 Winners 1 Losers 1 Strike Rate 50 % Profit/Loss + 5pts Current Bank 205 pts

Link to comment
Share on other sites
mowgli77

mowgli77

Posted
  • Author
Posted

Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread 2 for tonight. 1 to win and 1 ew. It'll be 5pts EW Kames Park and 10pts Win Serengeti:

SportHorse Racing
Event7.30 Hamilton
SelectionSerengeti
Strength10/10
Date18/05/2007
Bookmaker/Price>Betfred @ 2.50 (Back)
ReasoningLooks to have the best form on offer which includes formlines with Silkwood going through a line with Man Of Vision and both those have looked like decent types. Does not hold Gp1 entries like stable mate Boscobel but stable jockey chose to ride this out of the 3 available. Boscobel has carried its head high previously too which is off putting. Short price but likely winner, raced on good to firm and aw but not on this ground. Should have no problem with the trip of 1m3f having forged clear last time out over 1m2f.
SportHorse Racing
Event8.35 Hamilton
SelectionKames Park (Each-Way)
Strength3/10
Date18/05/2007
Bookmaker/Price>Bet365 @ 17.00 (Back)
ReasoningThe race revolves around whether Scriptwriter is fit and ready to go but that's short enough at 2.2. The selection has run some cracking races in class 2 company on the all weather and has a quick turn of foot. Won over this distance and 2nd last time out on turf behind Kilimandscharo which was a respectable 3rd today at York. Price is too big to ignore for small ew stakes. Should be fine with the ground.
Link to comment
Share on other sites
mowgli77

mowgli77

Posted
  • Author
Posted

Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread

Serengeti..... NON Runner Mate
Cheers mate :ok In that case it'll be 10pts win on Boscobel. :) JP Guillambert was down for the 1 ride at this meeting on Boscobel but has now been replaced by Fanning. Can't see it getting beat and have taken the 11-10 available with most firms. 10pts WIN Boscobel 7.30 Hamilton @ 11-10 (Paddy power)
Link to comment
Share on other sites
mowgli77

mowgli77

Posted
  • Author
Posted

Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread

Good luck with the thread MOWGLI , Nice winner to start off with :clap :hope for BESCOBEL
BOSCOBEL - WINNER :nana :cow :nana Pissed it by about 6 lengths, bit of class there. Good decision by Johnstone not to run 2 decent horses against each other.
Link to comment
Share on other sites
aliando

aliando

Posted
Posted

Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread

BOSCOBEL - WINNER :nana :cow :nana Pissed it by about 6 lengths, bit of class there. Good decision by Johnstone not to run 2 decent horses against each other.
:clap nice one mate - followed you in with a fiver (big bet for me lately :loon) :nana
Link to comment
Share on other sites
mowgli77

mowgli77

Posted
  • Author
Posted

Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread Tonights bets 10pts WIN on Boscobel @ 11-10, 21 pts returned 5pts ew Kames Park, 0pts returned 20pts Staked 21 pts returned tonight 4 selections 2 winners 2 losers 50 % Strike Rate Profit/Loss +6pts Bank: 206pts

Link to comment
Share on other sites
mowgli77

mowgli77

Posted
  • Author
Posted

Re: Mowgli77 Specialist Thread 2.10 Newbury PaddyPower.Com Stakes 1m5f61yds Gd-Sft Listed Class 1 The first statistic to consider when looking at this race is that in the last 10 years 7 winners have been 4 year olds and there is only one 4 year old in this line up – Peppertree Lane. Sir Michael Stoute has won the race 3 times in that 10 years but does not have a runner today. Day Flight looks to be the best of the bunch here with the proven form at Group 3 and listed level and is also a course and distance winner. It has been backed like it can’t lose and although it is returning from a 329-day break it has a good record fresh, winning on 3 seasonal re-appearances. Foreign Affairs is conceding weight and although it will be fine on rain softened ground it has never won a class 1 race in this country. It will get the trip and come on for the run after a break but doesn’t look to be good enough. Group Captain was staying on last time out on soft ground in France but needs massive improvement to get involved today. It has won on good to soft but never in a class 1 race and never over further than 1m4f. The Whistling Teal is another course and distance winner but is the old head of the race at 11 year old and weakened last time out. It won’t have the improvement of the younger horses and looks vulnerable today and the most exposed. Foreign Affairs has the Topspeed ratings in the Racing Post but Day Flight has the highest ratings for both course and distance. Peppertree Lane looks the one likely to improve most and benefit from soft ground so the more rain the better for him but it has only managed to finish 9th of 11 in France at listed class (on good ground) and 15th of 20 in a class 2 handicap (on good to soft). Not sure it has the class and therefore have to go with Day Flight as the selection with Peppertree Lane the most likely for the forecast. 10PTS WIN – DAY FLIGHT (1PT REV FC – DAY FLIGHT AND PEPPERTREE LANE)Not included in profit/loss, just a suggestion as a forecast bet. Just doing a write up for the 2.45. :ok

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

×
 Share
Go to topic listing
×
×
  • Create New...