'Barebear's football laying system'

[Barebear]

Although there is value in betting red hot fav's in football, I believe I have found an avenue which may well be worth exploring more. Since I'm Scottish, I have only backtested the SPL for 3 seasons and have tried with a very primitive staking plan. I also must say that I used the odds from William Hills and Ladbrokes in the testing. The system is very basic too - Lay the FAV in a match in the SPL where the price of both H & A teams is evens or greater. That's it! The primitive staking plan I used is simply this - I want to win 10 pts from the punter on each bet. eg, If the game was Motherwell [2.1] V Hibernian [3.0] Draw [3.4], then I'd risk 11 points on laying Motherwell. If Hibernian win or it's a draw I take the 10 points stake. As I said, I back tested this over the past 3 whole seasons and the results in P/L were: Season 03/04 = +44pts Season 04/05 = +211.7pts Season 05/06 = +275.4pts Is there an appropriate staking plan which would maximise the profit? And here's a question to you if you fancy back testing it, will this work in other leagues? Will it be equally as profitable considering the adjustment to Exchange prices and also taking commission into consideration? Have I done enough testing? Thanks Alex

[Dices]

Re: Any advice greatly accepted - Laying football fav's In order for others to answer , more imformation is needed. Number of bets per year, strike rate per year , aver winning odds. It looks to me , from your example that you took the fav's back odds as lay odds, in your example the price of 2.1 which is wrong. You have to 'combine' the other two odds to find your true back odds. Sorry I don't remember the calculation right now.