RussP's Specialisation - Flat Handicaps

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) Cheers Sonoftherock:ok 1 more bet for tonight goes in the last: 9.00 Windsor 1 non runner so only 15 go to post, so just the 3 places on offer. Just short of 1m4f here, in Cl 5 handicap. Relatively open race going 4/1 the field. Current market leaders with William Hills are: Royal Premier (4/1) - Rapidly climbing weights and tougher assignment tonight. 2 draw is certainly no help either, has to be opposed and looks set to be thwarted in its hat trick bid. Ocean Avenue (11/2) - Dropping to a winning mark and easing in class too, but poor run lto, bad draw and not won for almost 3 years means I cannot back this with any confidence. Hatch A Plan (11/2) - Both wins here despite poor strike rate. Gets on well with apprentice jockey but raised 2lb for lto 3rd so needs to improve to win here. Musango (15/2) - Turf debut tonight is the only negative I can find for this horse, other than the fact it carries my money! Stable had a winner yesterday and this jockey is 2 from 3 for this trainer in 2007. Nice draw in 11, goes well at this trip and is in the right grade. Won easily 3 starts ago over this trip off 7lb lower. Off this mark, was unlucky 2 starts ago when faded last 50 yards in a bunched finish, whilst finished a very creditable 3rd lto, staying on well despite having the worst of the draw at Lingfield, 14 of 14! If it handles the turf, and the track, I really expect this horse to go very close. True Companion (8/1) - Another raised in the weights for a defeat lto. Almost certainly needs softer ground than tonights so is readily passed over. Olimpo (9/1) - Won this last term but shown nothing since and has to be doubts about its well being. If it bounces back though, it could run well. * Of the rest, I see Broughtons Folly and Smart Cat as the only 2 with realistic claims, with John Egans mount marginally preferred. Is certainly open to some improvement tonight. Recommended Bet Musango (9/1 Ladbrokes) - 5pts EW

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat)

7.30 Windsor Currently, 16 expected to line up for this 6f Class 4 handicap. Course form usually counts here and 6 of this line up have won over C&D. Concentrating on the front runners in the RPF, we have: Adantino (11/2) - Consistent horse who loves it here. Placed in each of its last 4 runs. Drawn well but may need a bit of luck as it likes to come from off the pace. Not totally suited by Salisbury lto but still finished in the money. Previous 3 runs were all here. Has James Millman in the saddle and he takes off a valuable 5lb which could prove crucial here. Stable in very good form with 8 winners in the last 14 days. Optimum conditions and should go close. His Masters Voice (13/2) - No form at 6f, much better over 7f. Raised 2lb in the handicap and has yet to win in 5 starts on turf. Has assistance of McEvoy but opposable despite being in form. Matuza (7/1) - 6lb penalty and low draw should be enough to stop this in form sprinter. Has top weight too so tall order to take this. Alfie Tupper (10/1) - Lightly raced so is open to plenty of improvement but off track for quite a while and first try at this trip. Look elsewhere. Briannsta (10/1) - Not shown any form this term and although Windsor will suit more than last run, cannot be backed with confidence. Would need to see some trace of form before getting involved in a race like this. Fromsong (10/1) - Has conditions to suit but 2005 since its last win. I think it may be better over 5f now so I'll go against this horse. Kingscross (10/1) - Well drawn but out of form. Stepping back up in class with something to prove. Shouldn't really be good enough. * Some at bigger prices cannot be totally written off either. Abwaab beat Adantino a neck here almost 4 weeks ago but reopposes on 3lb worse terms. Effective is on a decent mark and could go well on its return to turf whilst Figaro Flyer is in form and has a good draw. However, we'll stick with the RPF fav in this open race. Recommended Bet Adantino - 5pts EW

Wins at 11/2:nana

[staffy]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) Nice 1 Russ.

[kevshat]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) Nice one Russ :clap :clap

[kevsul]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) Well done Russ.:clap :clap

[bowles10]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat)

Worth following from now me thinks!

Cheers Russ, i actually backed that one! great 11/2 winner. Something amiss with Musango after being a bit jumpy in the stalls never really ran his race & tailed off in the end.

[BillyHills]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) Well done Russ, nicely sussed mate!

[peteg40]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) Nice winner Russ.

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) Cheers guys, much appreciated as always:ok Although I don't deserve the comments after all the losers I've been posting recently:$ Nice profit for yesterday of 24pts with Adantino winning at 11/2 and Musango (as Rob said) tailed off, something amiss maybe? Onto today and just the 1 bet today: 3.45 Lingfield A Cl 6 turf handicap here, with a big field of 18 lining up over 6f. In the past, a high draw was favourable but I'm not sure that is the case now. I have taken the chance that low draw is equally as effective and my selection comes from single figure draw. Onto the leading contenders, with RPF, they are: Vegas Boys (11/2) - Generally in excellent form and worthy fav. However big weight to carry today, suggestion that slower ground would help, poor strike rate and no real value at around the current 3/1. Joy And Pain (7/1) - Possibilities. Travels well in its races but has found little of late. Has not troubled the places for 12 months now and 7f probably suits better. Needs to show some better form before I would get involved. Going Skint (8/1) - Ran well lto in a claimer but poor efforts in handicaps previously. Potentially good draw but this looks way too competitive for this horse. Bens Georgie (9/1) - Off its lowest ever mark and in good form at present. Takes 2/3 runs to come to hand, and looks to be ready to go in. Reappears after only 3 day absence when running 3rd over 7f. Drop back to 6f will definitely suit. Has run well in the past over C&D. Goes well on G/F as when winning in this class at Windsor 12 month ago off 6lb higher mark. Richard Quinn gets the leg up, which for me is a positive and every chance that it can get off the mark for the season today. Smile For Us (9/1) - Not run on turf for almost a year. Cannot be ignored on turf form off a very lenient mark today but another that needs to show more before carrying my money. * Of the others, I think Piddies Pride could run well for John Egan who gets on very well with this horse, whilst Ballybunion cannot be totally ruled out at a big price if its 271 day absence is no burden. Recommended Bet Bens Georgie (7/1 Betfred) - 5pts EW

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Races (Flat) Bens Georgie unplaced. Hit the front too soon and basically stayed on at the one pace:( . So, updated figures.... Current situation:- Staked = 1000.00pts Returned = 1062.10pts Profit = +62.10pts Yield = +6.21% Bets = 100 Winners = 13 (13.0% s/r) Places (incl wins) = 40 (40.0% s/r)

[gregprowt]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) Back with a couple of winners :ok

[Aykay1]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat)

Yield = +6.21%

Nice going mate - excellent write ups as always :ok

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat)

Nice going mate - excellent write ups as always :ok

Cheers lads, your support is appreciated.

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) A couple of bets for Thursday afternoon. Let's start at my local track, Haydock Park: 3.25 Haydock 16 declared for this, but I'm sure there will be a non runner or 2 so unlikely to pay 4 places. 6f handicap, Cl 5 race with those at the forefront of the RPF being: Brunelleschi (9/4) - Worthy fav having won 3 on the bounce, the last one quite convincingly. However, that race only had 4 runners although won at HQ win 18 going to post previously. Handicap mark continues to rise. Seems certain to be involved but how can you take 9/4 about a horse in a handicap as competitve at this? Cornus (4/1) - Frankie takes over today, and horse is in form. Is much better off at the weights with the fav but 4/1 is no value, especially as the horse would almost certainly prefer softer ground. Effective (7/1) - Let's hope it lives up to its name and gets off the mark for the first time in over 12 months. Stable is doing well this season and the Aussie jock, Bowman, has been a revelation. Placed 4 times in last 5 starts, despite not winning any of them. Down in grade though today, and fast ground definitely in its favour. Has good form at northern tracks generally, good s/r in this class, on this going and at this distance so everything is in place for a big run. Makabul (10/1) - Won lto in claiming company at Windsor. No easy task to follow up here in handicap company, especially for one that is usually tardy from the stalls. However, hails from stable / jockey in form. * Of the 12 remaining, only Outer Hebrides appeals to me under Oaks winning jockey Ted Durcan. May prefer 7f but strong run race could suit and may go well at a price. Recommended Bet Effective - 5pts EW

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) Now, up to Hamilton for bet 2: 4.35 Hamilton 14 go to post for this 6f sprint, in Cl 5. Hamilton seems to favour those up with the pace, and course form helps here. Onto the prinicples, with RPF: Walnut Grove (4/1) - Back to form lto when winning nicely at Carlisle. However, 7lb claimer takes over in the saddle and that suggests it will struggle with its penalty. I'm not sure of strength of lto win so will definitely oppose this one. Currency (5/1) - Ran well in a claimer lto but not sure 1 draw will help as this horse tends to be tucked in. Will needs the gaps and needs to prove itself back in handicap company. Throw The Dice (6/1) - I've thrown the dice, and this is the one! Front running trail blazer in good heart at present. Poor strike rate but I am expecting this horse to put that right today. Has gone very well for this jockey twice recently, finishing 2nd both times when just caught. The first one of those runs in this class and over C&D so repeat of that will see it involved in the finish. Trainer in form too. Exponential (8/1) - Not for me! Raised 4lb for recent win in a poor race and limitations exposed nto. Inconsistent sort, and doubtful it will be good enough in a relatively decent event. Oeuf A La Neige (8/1) - Dropped 3lb which helps, but Hamilton is not its track. Gets behind early and still not sure of best trip. Will be surprised if this horse is good enough. * The 2 Ian Semple runners are the ones to concentrate on from those at bigger prices. Regal Raider has been out of form so far this term, but has a big chance if bouncing back, whilst Local Poet has some traces of form and is overpriced. Recommended Bet Throw The Dice - 5pts EW

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) Lets move south to Sandown for bet 3 of the day at this evening meeting: 6.50 Sandown 5f charge for 14 runners in this Cl 4 handicap. A track where there are usually traffic problems so I'm looking for a horse that races up with the pace, has a good tactical jockey and can stay out of the trouble. The principals wth RPF are: Holbeck Ghyll (5/2) - Excellent run at Epsom on Derby Day and clear form pick based on that but struggles to win and beaten fav 3 times recently. Cannot be trusted and at such a short price, oppose. Efistorm (11/2) - Races prominently, so should stay out of trouble but I really dislike the jockey booking. Jamie Spencer loves to ride hold up horses, and I think he will tuck this horse in which won't suit. Has a chance on form but not for me. Bold Minstrel (13/2) - Will attempt to make all but that will be a tough task against a pretty strong field. Up in class and a place is probably the best this horse can hope for. Azygous (17/2) - The one for me! Interesting that Dwyer rides for Akehurst here, as opposed to the Balding trained favourite. Horse in form with 2nd and 4th from last 2 runs, back at fav trip of 5f. Won in Cl 3 this time last year, and goes well on good ground. Races off a nice mark and everything seems to be in place for a very big run. I just hope the draw has no effect today. Horse is improving, and stable knows how to ready one. Namir (17/2) - Good run, bad run from this horse so due to get beat today! Running well in lesser races and up 4lb too. Is better plying its trade at the smaller northern tracks. * I cannot see any of the others winning this, and the remainder are confidently passed over. Recommended Bet Azygous - 5pts EW

[mileni4uk]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat)

Recommended Bet Effective - 5pts EW

• 1st (14) Roman Quintet 14/1
• 2nd (15) John Keats 33/1
• 3rd (5) Effective 7/1

Lol.. Russ .. please don't say anything :lolFor the others: We talked about Roman Quintet last night ..

It does have a chance but has a lot to prove IMO. You know what, it will probably win now! At double figure odds, have a bit EW:ok

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat)

• 1st (14) Roman Quintet 14/1
• 2nd (15) John Keats 33/1
• 3rd (5) Effective 7/1

Lol.. Russ .. please don't say anything :lolFor the others: We talked about Roman Quintet last night ..

I know mate:$ , I sincerely hope you had some on it:hope

[mileni4uk]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat)

I know mate:$ ' date=' I sincerely hope you had some on it:hope[/quote'] How do you think? Not a single penny of course :lol

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) Not a particularly good day so far: Throw The Dice....4th:wall Effective....3rd 7/1:) Azygous....unpl:wall One more to finish off with at a big price: 9.00 Sandown 15 go to post for this Cl 4 handicap over 10f. Looking at the market principles, we have (incl RPF): Wovoka (3/1) - Good mark and very capable of winning in this class. However, not won for a long while and too short for me. Del Mar Sunset (13/2) - Won lto in this class but has a big weight to carry. I have doubts over its ability to win this in a quite competitive heat. Sir Arthur (7/1) - Front runner so vulnerable to a finisher. Travels down from the Johnston yard, but another not to have won for a while so it's opposable to me. Le Soleil (15/2) - 10lb rise, better class race so it's a no, no. Curley/Spencer combination means money is likely but cannot back this with confidence. Trans Sonic (8/1) - 0 from 14 on turf and never placed in this grade. Greek Well (17/2) - Big reputation but not achieved much to date. Still inexperienced but not for me based on form. Could easily improve but 4/1 current price is too short. * I am going to ignore all the above runners, and have a punt on 33/1 shot Double Spectre. Running well in slightly lesser races than this, and has a course win to its name. Capable off this mark and has a nice racing weight. Goes well for Dane O'Neill who rode this horse to its last victory 3 starts ago. Certainly not one to dismiss and could easily take this at a huge price. Recommended Bet Double Spectre (33/1 Sporting Odds) - 5pts EW

[gregprowt]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat)

Not a particularly good day so far: Throw The Dice....4th:wall Effective....3rd 7/1:) Azygous....unpl:wall One more to finish off with at a big price: 9.00 Sandown 15 go to post for this Cl 4 handicap over 10f. Looking at the market principles, we have (incl RPF): Wovoka (3/1) - Good mark and very capable of winning in this class. However, not won for a long while and too short for me. Del Mar Sunset (13/2) - Won lto in this class but has a big weight to carry. I have doubts over its ability to win this in a quite competitive heat. Sir Arthur (7/1) - Front runner so vulnerable to a finisher. Travels down from the Johnston yard, but another not to have won for a while so it's opposable to me. Le Soleil (15/2) - 10lb rise, better class race so it's a no, no. Curley/Spencer combination means money is likely but cannot back this with confidence. Trans Sonic (8/1) - 0 from 14 on turf and never placed in this grade. Greek Well (17/2) - Big reputation but not achieved much to date. Still inexperienced but not for me based on form. Could easily improve but 4/1 current price is too short. * I am going to ignore all the above runners, and have a punt on 33/1 shot Double Spectre. Running well in slightly lesser races than this, and has a course win to its name. Capable off this mark and has a nice racing weight. Goes well for Dane O'Neill who rode this horse to its last victory 3 starts ago. Certainly not one to dismiss and could easily take this at a huge price. Recommended Bet Double Spectre (33/1 Sporting Odds) - 5pts EW

good luck Russ, Im following you with this (also backed Wovoka to win) :ok

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) 3 bets for Saturday, starting with: 2.20 Goodwood Opening race from the Sussex track with 15 lining up in this competitive Class 2 handicap over 6f. A couple of unexposed types head the betting, but I'd prefer to look for some big E/W value on a proven sprint handicapper. The leading fancies with RPF are: Cape (11/4) - Progressing really well and leading player, but this is seasonal reappearance and has yet to race here (can be difficult to win at first time out). Steading creeping up weights and has a solid chance but too short for me to get involved. Utmost Respect (11/2) - Similar comments apply as per Cape, but only 2 career starts to date and never raced on ground good or better. That has to be a concern and must be opposed. Viking Spirit (15/2) - Bad draw, and struggles to win although usually in the mix. Should run its race but not good enough to win. Bentong (8/1) - Not for me. Top weight, high mark and shown nothing recently. Low draw no help either. Green Park (8/1) - Faheys 2nd string and another drawn low. Best form is at minimum trip so readily opposed today. * Of the other 10 runners, not many can be dismissed easily. Pearly Wey is a consistent type and should run its race again but not easy to win with, Greenslades is back on a good mark and could run well at a track it likes whilst Captain Hurricane is horribly out of form, is drawn poorly IMO and the Dettori factor will give this a false price. Dingaan and Connect do not have the form to win this, Forest Dane is progressing along the right lines but this race will be a class too much and Texas Gold has been a good horse, however is better suited at 5f. Dianes Choice will not win in this class, and Mujood has a bad draw. This leaves us with the 700 form of Royal Storm from the Amanda Perrett yard. Both trainer and jockey are in form at the minute, I like its draw in stall 10, close enough to the rail if needs be but can happy track the pace in the centre. Big drop in weights puts this horse on a winning mark too. Is 2 from 12 in Class 2 handicaps, with 5 more placed efforts. Contested some hot races last term including a Group 1. Back in realistic company today, likes Goodwood, needs fast ground, 6f is its trip. Provided long absence is no burden, I think everything is in place for a really big run this afternoon at a really big price. Recommended Bet Royal Storm (3pts win @ 48.0, 7pts place @ 9.6 on Betfair) Will be back with a bet in the big race at Musselburgh, and the lucky last at Newbury tonight:ok

[Aykay1]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) Interesting selection mate, its a gamble on whether the horse is fit or notI suppose but at the prices well worth an interest :ok

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) The 2nd bet of the day comes in the big sprint over the border: 3.45 Musselburgh 17 go to post for this cavalry charge over 5f in this Class 2 event. Very open event, and it is debatable over what the best draw is likely to be. Low has held sway recently, but I think they will go off at a break neck speed and it may suit one drawn higher that can pick up from off a fast pace. So, the leading contenders, with RPF, include: The Tatling (7/1) - Has a great chance at the weights but usually a suggestion this horse leaves it late. Will be difficult to time its run here so I'm taking this on. Worthy fav though. Bond City (8/1) - Raised 1lb for running 7th last week in the Dash. 7lb claimer on today but I'm not happy with that in a race like this. River Falcon (8/1) - Bout of 2nd'itis recently so doubts about its fight. Drawn against the rail and will struggle to get through the gaps. Fullandby (10/1) - Flatters to deceive all too often. Needs softer ground, and another drawn low but needing to be held up. Opposable. * Of the remaining 13 runners, again plenty of chances and my selection will come from one of these. Fantasy Believer has a good shout on its 5f form of last term but has been campaigned over further recently, albeit without success. Still 6lb higher than highest ever winning mark, and may be run off its feet today. Fonthill Road almost certainly needs further so will not be winning today, Handsome Cross is 10lb higher than when winning this last year so tough task to follow whilst Tournedos is capable but not really firing presently. Aegean Dancer has been running well in a lower grade and gets in here off bottom weight but must improve, Geojimali is very capable at best but disappointed lto and Bluebok must be respected from Milton Bradley's stable but is too in the weight. None of the others appeal to me except my selection, Magic Glade. This horse is only one Tom Dascombe sends up from Lambourn, and trainer is having a good time of it recently. Is 9/30 this term with his older horses in handicaps and 6/17 with his sprinters. The horse itself is running well winning 3 times so far this year. Steadily climbing weights but capable of defying this mark. Joe Fanning takes the ride so no problems there and has won at the track. Has a wide draw but I think Joe will tuck the horse in and come fast & late off the break neck pace. Has a very good EW shout. Recommended Bet Magic Glade (16/1 Coral) - 5pts EW

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) Nothing to show for today so far, but try these 2 tonight, both 5pts EW: 7.30 Newbury 15 go to post, with Cross The Line a worthy fav following a fine run behind Hassaad lto. However, I'm opposing with 2 double figure priced animals, both EW bets: Habshan (20/1 Sporting Odds) - finished behind Cross The Line lto but 6lb better and is entitled to strip fitter for its seasonal reappearance. Needs fast ground (4 wins from 12 on GF or quicker), 1m is its trip and stable has had a few winners lately. 4 wins & 4 2nds from 18 starts in this grade. Good jockey booking and worth of EW punt at these odds. Cool Ebony (14/1 Sporting Odds) - Travels all the way down for Michael Dods yard for this and gets in here off bottom weight with Nicky Mackay on board. Is 2 from 2 over 1m on GF or quicker, so has conditions to suit and must go well.

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) Also, one at Lingfield: 7.50 Lingfield Only 9 lining up here but still a cracking EW bet: Torquemada (8/1 Bet365) - on turf here at Lingfield, this is one of 3 C&D winners in the line up. Its form on turf at this distance and on good ground or better is more than enough to take this, also capable of winning in this grade. Stable in form, and this jockey gets on really well with this horse.

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) 9.05 Newbury 7f Class 5 handicap and another double figure priced selection: Carcinetto (12/1 Ladbrokes) - The favs have something to prove IMO, so take a chance on the solid form of Carcinetto. Very consistent recently, and has ideal conditions today of 7f on fast ground. 6f was too short lto and previous to that ridden by amateurs. Tolley Dean takes the ride and a useful 5lb off and should be thereabouts at the business end. Trainer has a couple of good winners yesterday too.

[kevsul]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat)

Nothing to show for today so far, but try these 2 tonight, both 5pts EW: 7.30 Newbury 15 go to post, with Cross The Line a worthy fav following a fine run behind Hassaad lto. However, I'm opposing with 2 double figure priced animals, both EW bets: Habshan (20/1 Sporting Odds) - finished behind Cross The Line lto but 6lb better and is entitled to strip fitter for its seasonal reappearance. Needs fast ground (4 wins from 12 on GF or quicker), 1m is its trip and stable has had a few winners lately. 4 wins & 4 2nds from 18 starts in this grade. Good jockey booking and worth of EW punt at these odds. Cool Ebony (14/1 Sporting Odds) - Travels all the way down for Michael Dods yard for this and gets in here off bottom weight with Nicky Mackay on board. Is 2 from 2 over 1m on GF or quicker, so has conditions to suit and must go well.

Habshan.:clap :clap :clap Oblige's at 14/1:clap :clap Nice tipping Russ

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) Cheers Kev:ok Yep, HABSHAN wins @ 20/1 ep:cow :nana :cow :nana

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat)

Cheers Kev:ok Yep, HABSHAN wins @ 20/1 ep:cow :nana :cow :nana

and TORQUEMADA grabs 3rd @ 8/1:clap :clap