RussP's Specialisation - Flat Handicaps

[gregprowt]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) keep plugging away Russ, Im sure the winners are just around the corner :ok

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) Thanks Greg for the support. Those sort of messages are the ones that keep you going....I really appreciate it mate:ok

[bowles10]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) the form does come back Russ, after 22 losing naps i should know!!!!!!!

[mileni4uk]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat)

the form does come back Russ' date=' after 22 losing naps i should know!!!!!!![/quote'] After 22 losing naps comes the 22/1 winner ;) And then Siera Vista and Tobosa and so on :ok I was -250 with the e/w fancies and I'm +30 now so +280 for 20 days :eek All you need is one of those runs and you're good :hope

[kevsul]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) Keep trying Russ, you know them winners are just round the corner.

[jtw1]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) Keep plugging away mate , as soon as you hit that winning streak it'll all be worth the hard work :ok

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) Thanks for the support, guys. On to Wednesday, and 2 horses expected to start in double figures:- 3.55 Yarmouth 1m handicap, Cl 6 with an expected 14 runners. The credentials of those prominent in the betting have to be question, so I've scouted around the big prices for an E/W bet. The top 6 in the RPF are:- Networker (3/1) - 6lb rise in weights, prefers turning track, unproven on slowish ground, Brett Doyle takes over from Spencer in the saddle. Enough grounds to oppose on, especially at likely price. Al Rayanah (5/1) - Has lots in its favour today such as track, trip and going. However ran flat on reappearance and too short at 5/1 to be backed with max confidence. Postmaster (6/1) - Raced almost exclusively in this grade, but 0 from 15 on turf. Has good form on AW, but this is different. Convallaria (8/1) - Decent stable, so must be feared. However, handicap debut so percentage call is to oppose. Desert Island Miss (8/1) - Another unexposed type with only 4 races to date. Off course for 210 days. Similar comments to Convallaria. The Bonus King (8/1) - Has had its day, never won over trip, has it all to prove following last run With none of the above filling me with great confidence, I'll take a chance on 16/1 shot, Emilys Place. Certainly, the horse has questions to answer but that is to be expected at those odds but has enough to recommend a bet. Hails from the Pearce stable, one which generally does well with his horses here at Yarmouth. Shown little last 5 starts on AW, but has claims on turf form last season. 2 wins, 3 places and 2 unpl from last 7 turf starts, wins coming in claimers both over this distance. The 2 unpl efforts came in Cl 5 handicaps, this is Cl 6 and is 4lb better off than those runs. Has to prove itself in good heart after 144 day absence, and that it handles cut in the ground but, at 16/1, it cannot be ignored. Recommended Bet Emilys Place - RPF 16/1 2nd bet is in the 8.35 Southwell, will post up selection and reasoning tomorrow.

[kevsul]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) It's a N/R mate.:sad

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) After all that, a bloody non runner:lol Tonights bet runs at Southwell:- 8.35 Southwell 12 go to post for this 7f handicap, Class 6 company. Again, looking for EW bet so trawled through the bigger prices. Credentials of those at the forefront of the betting: Modern Verse (9/2) - Still a maiden, handicap debutant. Big negatives for me, as I wouldn't want to be on a maiden against some battle hardened rivals. Cleveland (6/1) - 2 wins both came in claiming and banded company. 2nd lto in this grade but raised 3lb for that effort. Needs help from the handicapper before getting head in front. Doctors Verse (6/1) - Closely matched with Cleveland on win here 2 weeks ago, raised 4lb for that. Front runner but drawn wide, 11 of 12. Penel (7/1) - Hasn't won for a year, and may struggle from double figure draw. Scuba (7/1) - Decent mark and decent trainer/jock combination, but no show so far this term. Would like to see some trace of form before backing with confidence. Shaftesbury Avenue (7/1) - 3 runs to date, won maiden lto but maiden winner in a handicap is usually the way to the poor house. Wainwright (7/1) - Likes to come from off the pace so the 1 draw is far from ideal. All its best form is at 6f too. * Preference though is for top weight Lil Najma. Ridden by the excellent John Egan, I would not be at all surprised to see this horse bounce back from some poor efforts. Dual winner over this trip Jan/Feb, with latter win coming off this mark, the first time it has raced off 65 since that win. Likes to go from the front and this course is ideal for that style of racing. Those wins came in Cl 5 company, and today it races in 1 grade lower for the first time this year. Has almost everything in its favour, with the exception of stall 9 but it could have been worse. Big run expected, at a big price. Recommended Bet Lil Najma (RPF 10/1). Currently 12/1 William Hill

[gregprowt]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) nice one Russ back in the profits, nice 2nd at 12-1 :clap

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat)

Tonights bet runs at Southwell:- 8.35 Southwell * Preference though is for top weight Lil Najma. Ridden by the excellent John Egan, I would not be at all surprised to see this horse bounce back from some poor efforts. Dual winner over this trip Jan/Feb, with latter win coming off this mark, the first time it has raced off 65 since that win. Likes to go from the front and this course is ideal for that style of racing. Those wins came in Cl 5 company, and today it races in 1 grade lower for the first time this year. Has almost everything in its favour, with the exception of stall 9 but it could have been worse. Big run expected, at a big price. Recommended Bet Lil Najma (RPF 10/1). Currently 12/1 William Hill

2nd @ 12/1:clap Cheers Greg for the support:ok

[mowgli77]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) Nice 2nd there Russ, that 12-1 placed will soon be a 12-1 winner. I have every faith in you mate. :ok

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) Cheers Phil:ok Onto Derby Day, and there are loads of handicaps to choose from today. Make or break today with so many bets so here goes for starters:- 3.30 Epsom Vodafone Dash over the fastest 5f in the world. 19 line up for the annual Epsom cavalry charge, where C&D form counts for a lot. Open race with some bookies going 13/2 the field. The main contenders, according to RPF are: Hogmaneigh (6/1) - Progressive type, drawn well but likes to come from well off the pace. May struggle at this track with such a furious gallop. Could run into a place but expect it to be the 'hard luck story' Green Manalishi (7/1) - Yard quiet, off career high mark, top weight. However, drawn well but is opposable in this company. Bond City (8/1) - Has C&D form, and going well at present. Decent chance but I think Frankie will be saving maximum effort for his Derby ride, Authorized. Caribbean Coral (10/1) - 4lb worse off with Corridor Creeper for half a length. In form but another that needs gaps at the right time. Fantasy Explorer (10/1) - No course form and may still be too inexperienced to win a race of this calibre. Wyatt Earp (10/1) - Not my favourite trainer / jock combination, and never won over minimum trip. Flatters to deceive all too often for me. * Others with C&D winning form are Fire Up The Band, Corridor Creeper and Cape Royal. Fire Up The Band is drawn well, and won this in 2005 but has been relatively disappointing since and is passed over with questions to answer. The latter 2 named make up the Milton Bradley challenge. Cape Royal is poorly drawn, may find this too competitive and is a touch high in the weights so preference, at a very backable price, is Corrider Creeper ridden by 7lb claimer Barry Savage. Middle draw is fine for this horse, who has run well in this race before. 4lb lower than last run when firm ground was against this animal, but still ran ok behind the excellent in-form Sierra Vista. Previous 2 runs off todays mark and with todays jockey resulted in a pair of 2nd's in good events at Chester and York. Is due to go up 3lb after todays run, so I expect maximum effort today to expose its lenient mark. Approaching the veteran stage now but has won off 108 in the past, today it races off just 95. Looks a lively EW bet at the early 16/1 with Bet365. Recommended Bet Corridor Creeper (16/1 Bet365) - 5pts EW

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) Bet 2 today is a big price and runs later on at Epsom: 5.05 Epsom Another big field, 19 going to post, over the Derby trip in Cl 2 handicap. Open race with the front runners in RPF being: Leslingtaylor (11/2) - Very progressive over hurdles, and has a big chance here off 8st2lb, but may prefer a flatter track and too short at about 4/1. Great Hawk (13/2) - Inexperienced, off track for too long and big rise in weights. Trip may also be too far so I recommend opposing this Stoute charge. Oh Glory Be (7/1) - Has a chance and looked good for 2 wins at Salisbury but no form elsewhere and suggestion that Epsom will cause this horse problems. La Estrella (8/1) - Up steeply in class and up in weights but progressing well. This may be too competitive, and regular pilot gives way today to Joe Fanning. Nosferatu (8/1) - Closely matched with Misty Dancer, has a good chance today from stable that is going well this season. Early price of 5/1 is too short. Flying Clarets (10/1) - Doubts over track and trip, and this horse cannot be backed with confidence. Will need stamina to win here, and that will count against this horse. *Of the others, Nakheel is a horse I have backed the last twice but I think top weight here may just stop it, so I'm chancing a little bit EW on 33/1 shot Misty Dancer. Reopposes Nosferatu on 4lb better terms for a 3L beating 26 days ago but is 7 times the price, way too much for me. The only C&D winner in the field which is a definite plus, although that is tempered by the 1 draw. Venetia Williams charge has been running well over fences, winning 2 starts ago before showing it retains enough for a flat campaign in that race almost 4 weeks ago. Gets in her with only 8st4lbs, and the excellent Franny Norton takes the ride. Travels well in its races which will help at a track such as Epsom, and could give us a run for our money at a big price. Recommended Bet Misty Dancer (33/1 Bet 365) - 5pts EW

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) We move away from Epsom for Bet 3: 4.50 Folkestone 12 runners for the closing race here, a Cl 4 handicap over 7f. Solely contested by 3yo's so some improvers likely in the field, the main bunch being (with early prices from Bet365): Azeema (7/4) - Only run twice, winning a maiden lto. Could be anything and is open to improvement off a decent opening handicap mark but opposable at 7/4 against more battle hardened rivals. Slate (11/2) - Raised 5lb for win lto, and up in class. Has a decent chance to build on its promising career start but the 2 above factors may be enough to stop this horse. A place is the best we can hope for. Bold Abbot (6/1) - Good stable but handicap debut. Won its maiden at 5th time of asking, and doesn't bode well here. Roodolph (8/1) - the EW bet for me. Won its only start last term here very impressively and 2 good efforts so far this term in handicaps. 4th both times but beaten less than 2L in each of those runs. Has looked a bit green and is open to lots of improvement. Return to the scene of its maiden win a plus, and massive EW value at the early available 9/1. Oi Vay Joe (9/1) - Definite chance on pick of last terms form, especially with stable going well but 251 day absence a worry against some above average rivals. * Of the others, Karoo Blue is interesting. Having been highly tried, is back in its grade and could run a big price at a decent price. Recommended Bet Roodolph (9/1 Paddy Power) - 5pts EW

[mileni4uk]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat)

Corridor Creeper (16/1 Bet365) - 5pts EW

With you on this one :ok I fancy it too :hope

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) I have one more definite bet for tonight, which I will post later on. There are also another 3 races I'm interested in today but cannot split 2 selections in each race, so I may just have a little bit EW on both. For reference, the races & horses, with RPF, in question are: 5.40 Epsom Dhaular Dhar (14/1) / Lethal (10/1) 2.20 Musselburgh Bo McGinty (8/1) / Blazing Heights (7/1) 2.35 Folkestone Irony (15/2) / McNairobi (9/1)

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat)

Bet 2 today is a big price and runs later on at Epsom: 5.05 Epsom *Of the others, Nakheel is a horse I have backed the last twice but I think top weight here may just stop it, so I'm chancing a little bit EW on 33/1 shot Misty Dancer. Reopposes Nosferatu on 4lb better terms for a 3L beating 26 days ago but is 7 times the price, way too much for me. The only C&D winner in the field which is a definite plus, although that is tempered by the 1 draw. Venetia Williams charge has been running well over fences, winning 2 starts ago before showing it retains enough for a flat campaign in that race almost 4 weeks ago. Gets in her with only 8st4lbs, and the excellent Franny Norton takes the ride. Travels well in its races which will help at a track such as Epsom, and could give us a run for our money at a big price. Recommended Bet Misty Dancer (33/1 Bet 365) - 5pts EW

2nd @ 33/1:clap :clap ....getting closer to that first win for a while. After the first 2 lost, this result has secured a profit on the day with one more bet to come in the 8.00 at Newcastle. I'll post the detail shortly.

[mileni4uk]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) Very well done, mate :clap

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) With profit secured for the day thanks to 33/1 2nd in Misty Dancer, we move onto the final bet of the day, Bet 4: 8.00 Newcastle Currently 16 go to post for this 10f Cl 6 handicap, so we will benefit from being paid out on 4 places....there is time for that to change though! A pretty open event here, with the main contenders (and RPF) being: Royal Flynn (100/30) - Worthy fav, conditions to suit but top weight here and has to overcome 6lb higher mark so percentage call to oppose. Rotuma (13/2) - Michael Dods holds the cards here with the top 2 in the betting, but 6th here lto off same mark in same class so no reason why it should win tonight. Tour D'Amour (13/2) - Has a good chance tonight but stamina to prove here, especially with a strong pace likely. Turn Of Phrase (7/1) - Has lots in its favour from good stable but track absence is enough to make me want to look elsewhere. Neils Legacy (9/1) - Big drop in weights but never won a handicap. With such a competitive field, that isn't likely to change here. Elopement (9/1) - My money will be on this horse. Lightly raced, improving, needs strong pace which it will get here, proven stamina, stiff track will suit, easy ground in its favour. Nice price at 10/1. * I'm pretty confident that the winner will emerge from the front 6, so will not even give the others a mention. Recommended Bet Elopement (10/1 Bet365) - 5pts EW)

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat)

Recommended Bet Elopement (10/1 Bet365) - 5pts EW)

5th, just run out of the places close home:wall

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Races (Flat) Current situation:- Staked = 960.00pts Returned = 960.84pts Profit = +0.84pts Yield = +0.09% Bets = 96 Winners = 11 (11.5% s/r) Places (incl wins) = 38 (39.6% s/r) Clinging onto profit:lol It keeps me positive after one of my worst ever runs:ok

[WoodyTHFC]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) Nice each way shout today and I am sure the winners will start coming soon.

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) Cheers Woody:ok Just the one flat meeting today, and just the one bet: 4.20 Brighton Cl 6 handicap here over 1m2f, with average sized field of 12 going to post. Course form is generally important here, but I've picked one out here yet to run at the course and I'm hoping its acts on the track. So, onto the horses, and those heading the market, with RPF, are: Hansomelle (4/1) - 3rd off this mark here lto so no reason to believe it will improve again to take this. Also, I have doubts that the extra distance will suit. Factual Lad (6/1) - Bowles' pick. Excellent course form with decent jockey. Can go well fresh but worry is that it hasn't reappeared sooner. Piano Man (6/1) - This ground may be a bit quick today for this horse, and suggestion that it needs a little help from the handicapper before recording that first win. Sawwaah (6/1) - Top weight here, and it has a further burden....it is carrying my money too!!!! Has won off 81 in the past, and races off just 65. Notched up hat trick of wins recently in sellers and this race isn't any better than a seller. Has since run well in 3 subsequent races, and wasn't better far lto off this mark in a stronger race, when caught close home. However, soft ground that day and will have more chance to prevail today on better going. Stable does ok here, and has the assistance of the in-form Jim Crowley riding. Only negative is that this horse has never run here, but I'm confident it will handle the track, especially being so experienced. Border Edge (7/1) - Has a chance but may need another run or two this season to put it spot on. Will go close on pick of its form, and does like Brighton, but I reckon it is better over 1m. Justcallmehandsome (7/1) - Ran well here in the week but still to record 1st turf win. Needs to improve again to take this, but the better ground goes against this horse. * Of the others, Christmas Truce and Makai have won here, with the former in the better form. Something Simple travels here from Cheshire and small stable is going well recently. Recommended Bet Sawwaah (15/2 Sporting Odds) - 5pts EW

[bowles10]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat)

Nice each way shout today and I am sure the winners will start coming soon.

didnt take long as Sawaah obliges backed into 9/2 - well done Russ. Worth following from now me thinks! mine was 3rd so happy with that.

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat)

didnt take long as Sawaah obliges backed into 9/2 - well done Russ. Worth following from now me thinks! mine was 3rd so happy with that.

Cheers Rob:ok and well done with Factual Lad....1st & 3rd;)

Just the one flat meeting today, and just the one bet: 4.20 Brighton Cl 6 handicap here over 1m2f, with average sized field of 12 going to post. Course form is generally important here, but I've picked one out here yet to run at the course and I'm hoping its acts on the track. So, onto the horses, and those heading the market, with RPF, are: Hansomelle (4/1) - 3rd off this mark here lto so no reason to believe it will improve again to take this. Also, I have doubts that the extra distance will suit. Factual Lad (6/1) - Bowles' pick. Excellent course form with decent jockey. Can go well fresh but worry is that it hasn't reappeared sooner. Piano Man (6/1) - This ground may be a bit quick today for this horse, and suggestion that it needs a little help from the handicapper before recording that first win. Sawwaah (6/1) - Top weight here, and it has a further burden....it is carrying my money too!!!! Has won off 81 in the past, and races off just 65. Notched up hat trick of wins recently in sellers and this race isn't any better than a seller. Has since run well in 3 subsequent races, and wasn't better far lto off this mark in a stronger race, when caught close home. However, soft ground that day and will have more chance to prevail today on better going. Stable does ok here, and has the assistance of the in-form Jim Crowley riding. Only negative is that this horse has never run here, but I'm confident it will handle the track, especially being so experienced. Border Edge (7/1) - Has a chance but may need another run or two this season to put it spot on. Will go close on pick of its form, and does like Brighton, but I reckon it is better over 1m. Justcallmehandsome (7/1) - Ran well here in the week but still to record 1st turf win. Needs to improve again to take this, but the better ground goes against this horse. * Of the others, Christmas Truce and Makai have won here, with the former in the better form. Something Simple travels here from Cheshire and small stable is going well recently. Recommended Bet Sawwaah (15/2 Sporting Odds) - 5pts EW

Wins in a canter, at 9/2. Hope you got on at 15/2 EP:nana Almost back up to 50pts profit now:ok

[stewartd14]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat)

Cheers Rob:ok and well done with Factual Lad....1st & 3rd;) Wins in a canter, at 9/2. Hope you got on at 15/2 EP:nana Almost back up to 50pts profit now:ok

Superb Russ - A nice profit for today and overall :clap :clap :clap :clap

[mowgli77]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) Didn't back a thing today and only had a brief look at Sunday Papers before going out. Only one horse caught my eye - Sawaah. :wall Happy for you mate, nice winner. Wish i'd bloody backed it though. ;)

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) Cheers lads and onto Monday. 1 definite bet, and maybe 1 more in the last at Windsor but will wait until tomorrow before confirming that. So, the one definite bet also runs at Windsor: 7.30 Windsor Currently, 16 expected to line up for this 6f Class 4 handicap. Course form usually counts here and 6 of this line up have won over C&D. Concentrating on the front runners in the RPF, we have: Adantino (11/2) - Consistent horse who loves it here. Placed in each of its last 4 runs. Drawn well but may need a bit of luck as it likes to come from off the pace. Not totally suited by Salisbury lto but still finished in the money. Previous 3 runs were all here. Has James Millman in the saddle and he takes off a valuable 5lb which could prove crucial here. Stable in very good form with 8 winners in the last 14 days. Optimum conditions and should go close. His Masters Voice (13/2) - No form at 6f, much better over 7f. Raised 2lb in the handicap and has yet to win in 5 starts on turf. Has assistance of McEvoy but opposable despite being in form. Matuza (7/1) - 6lb penalty and low draw should be enough to stop this in form sprinter. Has top weight too so tall order to take this. Alfie Tupper (10/1) - Lightly raced so is open to plenty of improvement but off track for quite a while and first try at this trip. Look elsewhere. Briannsta (10/1) - Not shown any form this term and although Windsor will suit more than last run, cannot be backed with confidence. Would need to see some trace of form before getting involved in a race like this. Fromsong (10/1) - Has conditions to suit but 2005 since its last win. I think it may be better over 5f now so I'll go against this horse. Kingscross (10/1) - Well drawn but out of form. Stepping back up in class with something to prove. Shouldn't really be good enough. * Some at bigger prices cannot be totally written off either. Abwaab beat Adantino a neck here almost 4 weeks ago but reopposes on 3lb worse terms. Effective is on a decent mark and could go well on its return to turf whilst Figaro Flyer is in form and has a good draw. However, we'll stick with the RPF fav in this open race. Recommended Bet Adantino - 5pts EW

[Sonoftherock]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) Good luck with your selection - I've just had a look at that race and I'm probably going with Abwaab to beat Adantino again for the win and I fancy effective to sneak in the back door..... either way I'm confident we'll have a winner between us! I'll post up my full reasoning tomorrow morning.....In the windsor thread of course!