RussP's Specialisation - Flat Handicaps

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat)

So, here are the 2 for Saturday:- 'Normal' Bets FLIPANDO.....unpl:$ 3.00 Thirsk 'Alternative' Bets NAKHEEL.....2ND @ 8/1:clap 5.45 Newmarket

Another placed, collared close home, pleased with that. Very disappointed in Flipando, I really fancied this. Will have a look back at the card, see if I missed anything obvious. Sorry Kev that the results weren't better, but thanks for the support:ok

[RussP]

[kevsul]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) Excellent.:clap :clap :clap :clap

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) Moving onwards, we have 2 bets for Sunday:- DANSILI DANCER 1.55 Newmarket RPF 10/1 Opening race from HQ on 1000 Guineas day, and this is a tricky 18 runner handicap. However, I think we may have stumbled on a very good EW bet here in the shape of Dansili Dancer. Jockey booking of the excellent Kerrin McEvoy is a huge plus too. Has an excellent strike rate on turf, and will relish the fast ground. On a career high mark but its form justifies this. Rounded off last year with 2 wins and a place in 3 top drawer handicaps and repeat of those efforts could well be enough. Reappearance run was on AW in a Listed event, and although nothing special, it will have put this horse spot on for this. Likes to be ridden up with the leaders which is generally an advantage at HQ so this horse has plenty in its favour here and is considered an excellent EW offering. JUN FAN 5.40 Hamilton RPF 11/2 Lowly handicap to close the card at Hamilton, and possibly surprising that I am getting involved with a maiden in a 5f sprint handicap. However, this horse was knocking on the door last season over this trip. Return to 5f today will certainly suit, and another drop in the handicap of 2lb. It is imperative that you race up with the pace if you are to succeed at this track, and this is just how this horse likes to be ridden. The jockey booking of the promising Jamie Moriarty is positive, taking another 5lb of its back. Furthermore, stable has had 5 winners in the last 14 days from just 15 runners and Moriarty has been on 3 of those from just 4 rides, at prices of 11/2, 2/1 and 7/1. A super EW bet in a poor heat.

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) Dansili Dancer:- taken 8/1 at Stan James Jun Fan:- taken 9/2 at Stan James

[gregprowt]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) DANSILI DANCER 1.55 Newmarket RPF 10/1 Unlucky Russ, that was looking like it was going to get a place till it was completley blocked out of the race, he seemed to be having problems with Ace Of Hearts for most of the race

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) Very poor today:sad Sorry guys.

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Races (Flat) Current situation:- Staked = 740.00pts Returned = 830.84pts Profit = +90.84pts Yield = +12.28% Bets = 74 Winners = 10 (13.5% s/r) Places (incl wins) = 34 (46.0% s/r)

[mileni4uk]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) :clap Great thread, mate. I somehow managed to get only the one, that was a winner ;) Probably because I fancied other horses in the races you've picked. Keep it up. You're still well in prfoit :ok

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) Putting 30pts of the profit on the line tomorrow, with 3 selections for Bank Holiday Monday. 2 on the AW at Kempton, the other at Windsors turning track:- ROWAN WARNING 3.00 Kempton RPF 10/1 10f handicap, Cl 6 with 14 going to post. Look to the foot of the weights for Rowan Warning, partnered for the first time by the in form Richard Hills. Last 5 runs haven't yielded anything too promising but they were all at Lingfield, and today it returns to its fav track, Kempton. 1 win and 2 placed efforts from 3 tries here, and wasn't drawn the best for its 2 places. Good stall today in 9, likes to come from off a fast pace which hopefully it should get today and suited by step up to 10f (raced exclusively at 1m at Kempton). Should be on the premises at a great price. MARAJAA 4.30 Kempton RPF 6/1 One last try for this horse, having backed it twice before in this thread where it has just failed to reach the place both times. Consistent horse in Cl 2 company, with a cracking run lto behind Pinpoint in the Spring Cup. That represents very good form. Same mark, gets on well with todays jockey and drops to Cl 3 company today, for the first time since winning here in November. Really believe this horse will do the business for us today, at a nice EW price. ROBUSTIAN 3.50 Windsor RPF 8/1 10f handicap here, with 11 expected to line up. This horse represents a stable in tip-top form, with Frankie getting the leg up. Progressive type, with 3 wins from 16 career starts, and a further 7 times it has finished 2nd or 3rd. Has gone well here in the past, and won 2 starts ago in this company at Pontefract on its seasonal reappearance. Race fit and drawn well, I think this horse will mount a strong late challenge and will hopefully prevail under Frankie at overpriced odds.

[mileni4uk]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat)

MARAJAA 4.30 Kempton RPF 6/1 One last try for this horse, having backed it twice before in this thread where it has just failed to reach the place both times. Consistent horse in Cl 2 company, with a cracking run lto behind Pinpoint in the Spring Cup. That represents very good form. Same mark, gets on well with todays jockey and drops to Cl 3 company today, for the first time since winning here in November. Really believe this horse will do the business for us today, at a nice EW price.

Just like you took it when losing .. but is a consistant sort and we may get something tomorrow. Fingers crossed :hope

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) Out of form completely:( ...but keep trying so they say......onto Wednesday with 2 afternoon bets:- SOM TALA 2.50 Chester RPF 10/1 Chester Cup over 2m2f, yet draw is still very important as is the ability to race up with the pace. Som Tala has both in its favour, and has a featherweight of just 8-4 to carry round here. Generally progressive last year, looking better and better for each step up in trip. Must improve again to take a hand here but stable going well and, off a 3lb lower mark than lto, must go well at early odds of 14/1 with Ladbrokes WANCHAI LAD 2.30 Beverley RPF 7/1 Quite an open sprint handicap here and the one crucial factor for me is the draw. It normally pays to discount any drawn in single figures, which narrows the field to just 6. The selection was another progressive type last term, winning 2 towards the end of the season. Goes well fresh and no surprise to see this Easterby horse in the shake up. Only 3lb higher than last win.

[kevsul]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) Not had a bet last few days. Sorry to see this on a little bit of a bad run, things can only get better. ( Just like today for instance) So good luck with these today.:hope

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) 2 more for tonight, with a profit already secured for today:- ICANNSHIFT 8.20 Kempton RPF 10/1 Won 2 starts ago on turf, before disappointing lto. On much lower mark on AW and has yet to show anything but a chance is taken on this horse tonight. Has run well only start on the AW here, when 3rd of 12. Also steps up markedly in trip and it is hoped that this front runner can use its speed to beat off its rivals. Well handicapped if getting the trip, and acting on the surface. Take the 14/1 with Sporting Odds. HANSOMELLE 9.20 Kempton RPF 20/1 Final race of the day, and a big priced selection with Jimmy Quinn on board. AW debut tonight, but has shown some decent bits of form last term. Stepped up in trip and dropped dramatically down the handicap for this run. It's hoped that the new stable can do the trick. Has run well off this mark 2 starts ago and a repeat could see this horse in the frame. Overpriced at the generally available 16/1.

[gregprowt]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) Good luck for tonight Russ :hope and great winner today :ok

[mowgli77]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) I like the look of Icannshift, good luck with this one mate. :ok

[kevsul]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat)

Out of form completely:( ...but keep trying so they say......onto Wednesday with 2 afternoon bets:- SOM TALA 2.50 Chester RPF 10/1 Chester Cup over 2m2f, yet draw is still very important as is the ability to race up with the pace. Som Tala has both in its favour, and has a featherweight of just 8-4 to carry round here. Generally progressive last year, looking better and better for each step up in trip. Must improve again to take a hand here but stable going well and, off a 3lb lower mark than lto, must go well at early odds of 14/1 with Ladbrokes WANCHAI LAD 2.30 Beverley RPF 7/1 Quite an open sprint handicap here and the one crucial factor for me is the draw. It normally pays to discount any drawn in single figures, which narrows the field to just 6. The selection was another progressive type last term, winning 2 towards the end of the season. Goes well fresh and no surprise to see this Easterby horse in the shake up. Only 3lb higher than last win.

:clap :clap :clap Unlucky with som tala finished 5th.:wall Had both e/w singles @ 12/1 and 15/2 this morning plus e/w double.:@ Still nice little profit. Cannot get on the 2 tonight as at work. But good luck with them as well.:hope

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) Results yesterday:- WANCHAI LAD....WON 7/1:clap the other 3 all finished unplaced. Just 1 for today and it runs later at Ayr:- LOCAL POET 7.50 Ayr Ian Semple saddles the fav here in Cross Of Lorraine, but I like the EW chance of rag, Local Poet, his other runner. Looks better on AW, but ran with some promise on return to turf last week. Races off a career low mark tonight of 55, having previous raced off marks in the 90's. Dropped to Cl 6 handicap company for the first time too, so it has a chance at a price if finding any of its old zest. Huge price at 25/1 with Paddy Power.

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) Need to start getting back amongst the winners / places so let's kick off the weekend in a positive way. GEOJIMALI 3.35 Ascot 11/1 Totesport Jim Goldie sends this horse down all the way from Scotland for this 6f cavalry charge. Despite this looking an ultra competitve heat, I really fancy this horse provided its draw proves favourable. Best at this trip and in big fields, as judged on winning the Ayr Silver Cup last term. Reunited with Saleem Golam which is a plus. Very consistent form if we excuse its last run where it got no run whatsoever. Loves a bit of cut, with 2 wins and a place from its 3 tries on G/S. Dropped a 1lb in the handicap. So many positives makes the 11/1 difficult to resist. INGLEBY PRINCESS 4.15 Haydock 12/1 Bet365 6f Cl 4 handicap for 3yo's here. Trawling through the form, its obvious that this horse has the most obvious claims but its price has been hugely inflated by the presence of some of the bigger stables coming here off the back of either lowly handicap wins or maiden wins. This horse has very progressive form provided we ignore its last run over 7f, which is a furlong too far for this horse. Better suited to todays 6f, and looks sure to benefit from the cut judged on 2nd to Hinton Admiral at Hamilton in a Cl 2 on G/S. Dropped 3lb in the handicap which a big positive too, and considering this horse has its preferred conditions today (6f, cut in the ground, Cl 4 after having run well in Cl 2), I fancy its EW chances at a big 12/1.

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) Nothing from yesterday. Onto Monday:- BALTIC BELLE 4.20 Wolv RPF 9/2 Has had a lot of chances but has the best form on offer and has contested much better races than this. Has a wide draw, but provided it overcomes that, should be good enough to take this. Stable in form and on a certain winning mark. EW bet to nothing.

[stewartd14]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat)

Nothing from yesterday. Onto Monday:- BALTIC BELLE 4.20 Wolv RPF 9/2 Has had a lot of chances but has the best form on offer and has contested much better races than this. Has a wide draw, but provided it overcomes that, should be good enough to take this. Stable in form and on a certain winning mark. EW bet to nothing.

Unlucky with this one Russ, was caught out wide and couldn't recover. Better luck tomorrow :ok :ok

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat)

Unlucky with this one Russ, was caught out wide and couldn't recover. Better luck tomorrow :ok :ok

Cheers Stew. To be honest, I can't pick my nose at the minute:$ Going through a bad patch but will just keep plodding on;)

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) NAKHEEL / MACORVILLE 2.15 York 2 picks here in this 1m4f handicap at York. 17 go to post, but I feel it can be readily narrowed down to a handful of runners. Draw is still a factor over this distance, and although not ideally berthed, stalls 8 and 11 should not inconvenience these 2 animals. The other key factor for me is you need a horse that eithers leads or races up with the pace, and again these 2 fit the bill perfectly. This race is generally won by a fancied horse, and the fact they are both single figure odds is a plus. Nakheel is expected to lead, and looks to be heading in the right direction after a lengthy lay off but must overcome a 2lb rise in the weights. Macorville on the other hand is down 1lb after 2 poor efforts this term but needs cut in the ground to be seen at its best, as judged on its 3 successive wins at the backend of last term. Now races off its last winning mark and has McEvoy in the plate. EW bets advised, both 8/1 at Bet365

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) TRANS SONIC 4.05 Newbury Out of form recently but this doesn't look a particularly strong handicap. Draw is fine, and has the notable jockey booking of Frankie Dettori. Stable amongst the winners so plenty of positives here. Cut in the ground is another plus for this horse, as is the further easing of handicap mark. Likely fav Scottish River too high in the weights for return to turf, but price will be short with Spencer on top. Hope to see Frankies horse at around 8/1, so an EW bet is advised.

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) One placed at 7/2 yesterday, 2 unpl:sad 3 more bets for Saturday:- ZATO 2.25 Newmarket 9/1 Ladbrokes Has dropped down the handicap recently and same mark as when close 6th at Thirsk lto. Same grade today. Channon expects this horse to go very close, and has booked the excellent Darryl Holland to guide it home. Has plenty of improvement left and I fancy this horse to be in the 3 today. OLLIE GEORGE 3.35 Newmarket 12/1 Ladbrokes Form horse but keeps rising the weights and grade. Close 2nd lto off same mark in same grade and would have won that day with another 50 yds. Gets on really well with this jockey, drawn well to get a good early position and should go well, despite facing much better rivals. PASSION FRUIT 4.05 Newmarket 7/1 Ladbrokes Has run well here in the past and in better company, as judged on 4L 6th in Listed event here. Goes well for Dean McKeown, off a winning mark after being dropped a few pounds recently and encouraging 3rd lto in same grade race at Hamilton. Conditions failed to suit that day though, with trip too far and slow pace. Should feel more at home today, and I'm confident this horse will make the 4.

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) Ok guys, been away for a few days with time to reflect on some very poor results:$ Concentrating on 2 races today, one at Carlisle and the Zetland at Redcar. Here goes with 2 EW bets for you:- 3.25 Carl - REGENTS SECRET - 7/1 Sporting Odds Cl 4 handicap, and 3 NR's leave just 14 going to post so paying 3 places. Stiff track with an uphill finish so course form is usually a plus. We'll consider the main contenders in the shape of:- Daaweitza - Clearly in good heart winning 2 of last 3 in better grades but opposable today. Stiff track not ideal, may struggle with big weight, not ideally drawn for one best racing up with the pace, 6lb penalty and not totally convinced with jockey booking. Prince Evelith - Form pick judged on last terms form but not run for 251 days so has to be a major question mark in a competitive race like this. All its win in 3yo company last term and faces the older brigade today. 6lb higher too. Regents Secret - Form figures do not inspire at first glance but we need to look a little deeper. Drawn very well, excellent 3lb claimer on board in Saleem Golam, excellent course form of 1 win and 1 second from 2 runs, win coming off 73, 2nd coming off 79, and races today off only 70. Fast finisher and needs a good pace which is almost guaranteed here. All form on stiff tracks and 3 runs this term came at unsuitably easy tracks. Exit Smiling - This horse has done well for me in the past (remember, Mowgli;) ) but opposed today. Could go well but 5lb higher than turf win at Newcastle when it clearly had the best of the draw. Result could have flattered. Since running well on AW but suggestion is bit of cut is needed. Possible one for the forecast. The Osteopath - Has best of the draw but better at 7f. Average form in poorer company too. Should run its race but, in my opinion, would be a shock winner. Of the others, Flylowflylong has a poor draw and will struggle, do not dismiss the shrewd Nicholls team with rag Hypnotic, but the one at bigger prices for me is Nevada Desert, drawn well and has course form. 12/1 with VC. Could be worth a saver. Recommended bet:- Regents Secret (7/1 Sporting Odds) - 5pts EW Back with Zetland Cup preview later.:ok

[kevsul]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) Good Luck Today Russ. Hope it's back on a winning trail.:hope

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) Onto Redcar:- 3.50 Redc - CHANTACO - 13/2 BlueSq Cl 2 Zetland Gold Cup with 13 facing the starter following the withdrawl of Folio. Of the last 10 renewals, 9/10 have fallen to 4yo or 5yo, 8/10 to a horse at 8/1 or less in the betting and the last 7 have carried 9st or more. Only 4 on offer less than 10/1, and they are:- Hassaad - Very progressive type, winning 3 of last 4. However, steps up markedly in class, and has another 2f to go which is not certain to suit. Add to that another 6lb hike in the weights and 3/1 seems too short for me. Should run its race though. Dan Dare - Could be anything but this cannot be considered value at around 4/1. Despite hailing from top yard with top jockey on board, it comes here with tons to find on form. Off the mark at 5th attempt but that was in a poor Newcastle maiden. Not totally discounted, but not worth the risk. Benandonner - As some of you will know, Fahey is not my favourite trainer! Horse has been steadily progressive but keep rising the weights without winning. Is now 11lbs higher that highest winning mark and, although should make a bold bid, will find 1 or 2 too good. Chantaco - The only horse in the race to fit all the above trends, which is a bonus. C&D winner, when winning this race well last term. Only 3lb higher than that success. Has consistent form in this grade, so proven unlike many of todays rivals. Ideal trip and decent comeback against some very good types. Interestingly, is 3 from 16 on turf and all those wins have come at northern tracks from just 5 starts - Doncaster 1/1, Redcar 1/1, Thirsk 1/1 with defeats at York and Ripon. I firmly believe that the fancied runners will hold sway in this race. Of the bigger prices, ones to consider would include Bailieborough and European Dream, but place money is the best they can hope for. Recommended bet:- Chantaco (13/2 BlueSq) - 5pts EW

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) Bloody rubbish:@ Chantaco nowhere:wall Regents Secret meeting abandoned:\

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) Is this chasing losses? Maybe, but I have solid grounding for playing in the last 2 races at Leicester today. I am trying to remain positive despite being in a terrible run of form. 4.55 Leic - VANADIUM - 16/1 Betfred Race has cut up a lot. Draw should not be an inconvenience with the now soft going. Reappearance was over 10f and now dropped back to a more suitable 6f. Is more than capable in this grade and off this mark, especially with stable in fine form. Queally's only ride at the meeting. Recommended bet:- Vanadium (16/1 Betfred) - 5pts EW 5.25 Leic - APACHE FORT - 8/1 Bet365 Apprentice handicap with 13 facing the starter. The ultra consistent Apache Fort gets my vote here, with solid apprentice Patrick Hills up top. Soft ground expected to suit this horse and gets in here off a 3lb lower mark than lto when promising 4th of 15 at HQ. Couple that with a drop in grade and this looks a super bet. Recommended bet:- Apache Fort (8/1 Bet365) - 5pts EW