RussP's Specialisation - Flat Handicaps

[mr shrewdie]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Races (Flat) nice one russ, each way shrewdie. A good days punting, well done, I will keep watching your selections with interest.

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Races (Flat) Cheers Mr Shrewdie:ok

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Races (Flat) REVOLVE 4.50 Lingfield RPF 8/1 Apprentice handicap to finish the meeting, and a very open looking contest. I think this horse is a decent price, considering what it has achieved on the track. Price is reflected in its unfashionable trainer and jockey. Is in cracking form, and is drawn well for one that races up with the pace, a trait that helps in these types of races. Likes the track and, although all its wins have come in banded company, I expect this horse to be up there in the closing stages.

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Races (Flat) PRINCE CHARLEMAGNE 6.40 Windsor RPF 10/1 10f handicap, with a number of the big trainers represented. However, as usual, I'll stick with a horse with proven form from a smaller stable, that being Nick Littmodens in this case. Well capable of winning off this mark, from a decent draw. The horse needs luck in running as it likes to come from off the pace. Change of jockey today could do the trick and, as one of the few with proven form in this company, a big price tempts me into a bet. LOUPHOLE 7.10 Windsor RPF 8/1 6f charge here, and I'm banking on a late challenge from the Seb Sanders horse, Louphole. Forgive its last run, where prominent racers held sway, and its form is rock solid with 4 wins, 2 seconds and 3 thirds from its previous 9 runs. Has run well at this track a couple of times before, and will be coming fast and late past beaten horses. Usually runs better when turning out soon after last run so absence of only 10 days is a bonus. The presence of a Jamie Spencer / Chapple-Hyam favourite inflates the price of this horse, so another great EW bet at around 8/1.

[Ad87]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Races (Flat) Hey, good luck and i have faith. :ok

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Races (Flat) Sorry guys, 3 losers today:sad

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) Nothing for Tuesday. However I'm going to run some 'alternative' big field handicap selections in this thread, as usual they will be EW bets. Basically, based on some select criteria with a little personal filtering too, I want to keep these seperate for the time being just in case it falls on its arse.:ok So, onto Tuesday, we have:- Main Bets Nothing New 'Alternative' Bets CORONATION FLIGHT 6.30 Wolverhampton RPF 7/1 Apprentice handicap, with jockey booking important. James Rogers takes the ride on this horse, and I hope he can guide it to its first victory in 15 starts, tonight being its AW debut. This trip will suit as the horse gets behind early so I expect this course to play to its strengths. Easiest task it has faced and EW value at around 7/1.

[kevsul]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) Good Luck with the alternatives Russ.

[Ad87]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) Good luck tomorrow with Coronation flight. :ok

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) Poor start for the 'Alternatives'. Maybe, a watching brief is advised. The 'Alternatives' for Wednesday are:- 'Alternative' Bets MUSIC NOTE 5.05 Ascot RPF 9/1 Short priced Spencer ridden fav here but I'll take on with the solid form of Music Note, ridden by John Egan. Went off very quick lto but still respectable 3rd off this mark in similar company. Ridden with a little more restraint, this horse could score at around the 9/1 mark. Well worthy of an EW bet. MARK OF LOVE 7.30 Kempton RPF 7/1 Opposable Evs money fav here so back the solid Mark Of Love, with excellent Darryl Holland on top. Well drawn, excellent form and decent stable makes this a knocking EW bet. BONNIE PRINCE BLUE 8.35 Kempton RPF 9/2 Top stable, AW bow, best form on offer, drop to 7f hugely in its favour. Hard to keep out of the frame, EW bet to nothing. DIVINE SPIRIT 3.10 Nottingham RPF 5/1 Big field in its favour, good jockey booking, course suits judged on decent CD run lto and fast pace in its favour. Big run expected here from nice draw. TREASON TRIAL 3.45 Nottingham RPF 13/2 C&D winner less than 2 weeks ago and only 3lb higher here. Clearly in good heart, has conditions to suit as this represents its best distance and favoured ground. Difficult to see out of the frame. 5 bets, I know, but these are 'loosely' based on a system, and I'm reluctant to leave any out, especially as they all seem to have excellent EW chances:hope

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) Again, no main bets today.:(

[kevsul]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat)

Poor start for the 'Alternatives'. Maybe, a watching brief is advised. The 'Alternatives' for Wednesday are:- 'Alternative' Bets MUSIC NOTE :clap :clap :clap :clap Placed 5.05 Ascot RPF 9/1 Short priced Spencer ridden fav here but I'll take on with the solid form of Music Note, ridden by John Egan. Went off very quick lto but still respectable 3rd off this mark in similar company. Ridden with a little more restraint, this horse could score at around the 9/1 mark. Well worthy of an EW bet. MARK OF LOVE:clap :clap :clap Winner 6/1 7.30 Kempton RPF 7/1 Opposable Evs money fav here so back the solid Mark Of Love, with excellent Darryl Holland on top. Well drawn, excellent form and decent stable makes this a knocking EW bet. BONNIE PRINCE BLUE:clap :clap :clap Winner 5/2 Backed in from 9/2 8.35 Kempton RPF 9/2 Top stable, AW bow, best form on offer, drop to 7f hugely in its favour. Hard to keep out of the frame, EW bet to nothing. DIVINE SPIRIT:clap :clap :clap :clap Placed 3.10 Nottingham RPF 5/1 Big field in its favour, good jockey booking, course suits judged on decent CD run lto and fast pace in its favour. Big run expected here from nice draw. TREASON TRIAL:wall :wall :@ :@ 3.45 Nottingham RPF 13/2 C&D winner less than 2 weeks ago and only 3lb higher here. Clearly in good heart, has conditions to suit as this represents its best distance and favoured ground. Difficult to see out of the frame. 5 bets, I know, but these are 'loosely' based on a system, and I'm reluctant to leave any out, especially as they all seem to have excellent EW chances:hope

Nice going Russ.:clap :clap :clap E/W singles and just a 10p e/w super yankee:clap Thanks mate. Makes up for the 3 loser's the other day.:eyes

[cavello]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) MARK OF LOVE:clap :clap :clap Winner 6/1 This and the third became E/W value with the favourite so short. I rarely bet in handicaps but any mention of ridiculous short prices gets this e/w bandit in me looking for the value. 1/4 odds were available so a nice touch abeit to reduced stakes due to the hanicap status of the race:ok Thanks for the pointer.

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat)

'Alternative' Bets MUSIC NOTE.....4th @ 9/1:clap 5.05 Ascot MARK OF LOVE.....WON @ 6/1:clap :clap :clap 7.30 Kempton BONNIE PRINCE BLUE....WON @ 5/2:clap :clap :clap 8.35 Kempton DIVINE SPIRIT....3rd @ 7/2:clap 3.10 Nottingham TREASON TRIAL....4th @ 5/1:wall 3.45 Nottingham

2 winners, 2 placed and 1 just outside the money from 5 selections. Very happy with today:ok Bonnie Prince Blue was 9/2 opening show, and Mark Of Love 15/2 so there was extra profit to be had there too. Kev:- as always, thanks for the support. It means a lot, mate, that you are there day in, day out supporting me through both the good and bad times. Really appreciated:notworthy Cavelloman:- not often you venture into the handicaps:eek . However, I'm glad you did, and glad I could be of assistance;) . Looking forward to your E/W value bets:ok

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Races (Flat) Current situation:- Main Bets Staked = 610.00pts Returned = 665.46pts Profit = +55.46pts Yield = +9.1% Bets = 61 Winners = 8 (13.1% s/r) Places (incl wins) = 26 (42.6% s/r) 'Alternative' Bets Staked = 60.00pts Returned = 110.13pts Profit = +50.13pts Yield = +83.55% Bets = 6 Winners = 2 (33.3% s/r) Places (incl wins) = 4 (66.7% s/r)

[Sousa]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) Impressive stuff Russ. Made some e/w bets too. Thanks mate. :cheers

[gregprowt]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) nice one Russ :ok yesterday was the 1st time I didnt back your selections in about 3 weeks , and you have a stormer :wall

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) Cheers Sousa & Greg:ok Think I have 4 selections tomorrow (2 each from Lingfield & Musselburgh), will post up in the morning as I am 'working from home';)

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) 2 'Normal' bets and 1 'Alternative' bet for Friday. I'm keeping them seperate for the time being to see how the 'Alternatives' fare. If all goes well, I will merge the 2. Both types do have some certain selection criteria involved, but then my own personal thoughts play a major part (ie, draw, form, fitness, course, distance, jockey, etc). So here goes for Friday:- 'Normal' Bets CEREMONIAL JADE 3.30 Lingfield RPF 7/1 Competitive Cl 2 7f handicap here, with some very good performers here. At the current odds of 6/1, I'm going for the EW on Kerrin McEvoys mount. Jockey booking hugely encouraging, and good form to boot from good draw. It's not often you see KM only carrying 8-8 and interesting that he takes over from Oscar Urbina. Dropped 1lb despite some decent efforts, and is 2 wins, 1 second from just 4 starts on the AW. 8 career starts with only 2 poor efforts, 1 on unsuitably soft ground and the other when 7th at Kempton when fav in handicap. The race that day was run at a furious pace and the hold up horse never got into it so we can excuse that effort. Big run expected at EW backers price. ROYAL DIGNITARY 4.50 Musselburgh RPF 7/1 Represents the Dandy Nicholls in this 7f handicap. Possibly viewed as stable second string here, as De Sousa takes the ride and Adrian Nicholls partners Fremen. However I prefer the EW chances of the top weight here, won 3 from 3 here last year and seems to love this tight turning track. Below par on its last visit here but I can forgive that effort due to an average draw and its inability to get an early lead, which is crucial to this horse. Interestingly, A Nicholls has never won on this horse but De Sousa has, over this C&D. Superbly drawn for front runner and I fully expect this horse to prove difficult to catch. A nice EW price for a horse that should be there at the death. 'Alternative' Bets MOTU 5.20 Musselburgh RPF 7/1 Another horse that seems to be stables second string but I just can't understand it on recent form. This animal is as consistent as they come, and has run well here before under this jockey. Represents a stable in form, draw is ok and still capable of a steadily rising mark. Dropped in class today to Cl 6 where recent record reads 3 win, 4 places from 7 starts, whilst record over same period in Cl 5 reads 0 wins, 1 place from 5 starts. 10/1 available in places makes this a knocking EW bet.

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) Prices taken as follows: Ceremonial Jade:- 6/1 widely available Royal Dignitary:- 7/1 widely available Motu:- 10/1 Sporting Odds

[Sousa]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) Great work Russ. I fancy the horses myself so good luck to us both. :cheers

[kevsul]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat)

2 'Normal' bets and 1 'Alternative' bet for Friday. I'm keeping them seperate for the time being to see how the 'Alternatives' fare. If all goes well, I will merge the 2. Both types do have some certain selection criteria involved, but then my own personal thoughts play a major part (ie, draw, form, fitness, course, distance, jockey, etc). So here goes for Friday:- 'Normal' Bets CEREMONIAL JADE :clap :clap :clap :clap 3.30 Lingfield RPF 7/1 Competitive Cl 2 7f handicap here, with some very good performers here. At the current odds of 6/1, I'm going for the EW on Kerrin McEvoys mount. Jockey booking hugely encouraging, and good form to boot from good draw. It's not often you see KM only carrying 8-8 and interesting that he takes over from Oscar Urbina. Dropped 1lb despite some decent efforts, and is 2 wins, 1 second from just 4 starts on the AW. 8 career starts with only 2 poor efforts, 1 on unsuitably soft ground and the other when 7th at Kempton when fav in handicap. The race that day was run at a furious pace and the hold up horse never got into it so we can excuse that effort. Big run expected at EW backers price. ROYAL DIGNITARY :clap :clap :clap 4.50 Musselburgh RPF 7/1 Represents the Dandy Nicholls in this 7f handicap. Possibly viewed as stable second string here, as De Sousa takes the ride and Adrian Nicholls partners Fremen. However I prefer the EW chances of the top weight here, won 3 from 3 here last year and seems to love this tight turning track. Below par on its last visit here but I can forgive that effort due to an average draw and its inability to get an early lead, which is crucial to this horse. Interestingly, A Nicholls has never won on this horse but De Sousa has, over this C&D. Superbly drawn for front runner and I fully expect this horse to prove difficult to catch. A nice EW price for a horse that should be there at the death. 'Alternative' Bets MOTU 5.20 Musselburgh RPF 7/1 Another horse that seems to be stables second string but I just can't understand it on recent form. This animal is as consistent as they come, and has run well here before under this jockey. Represents a stable in form, draw is ok and still capable of a steadily rising mark. Dropped in class today to Cl 6 where recent record reads 3 win, 4 places from 7 starts, whilst record over same period in Cl 5 reads 0 wins, 1 place from 5 starts. 10/1 available in places makes this a knocking EW bet.

So far so good come on MOTU:hope All done e/w today in singles and doubles and a treble.:hope

[kevsul]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) Well Done Russ.:clap :clap All placed

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat)

So here goes for Friday:- 'Normal' Bets CEREMONIAL JADE.....2ND @ 6/1 EP advised:clap 3.30 Lingfield RPF 7/1 ROYAL DIGNITARY.....3RD @ 7/1 EP advised:clap 4.50 Musselburgh RPF 7/1 'Alternative' Bets MOTU......2ND @ 10/1 EP advised:clap 5.20 Musselburgh RPF 7/1

3 out of 3 placed today.:clap Just a shame we couldn't find that winner but pretty pleased with the prices and returns, a profit:ok

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat)

All done e/w today in singles and doubles and a treble.:hope

If you managed to get the early prices, that would be £53 returned for a £14 stake, based on £1 E/W patent.

Well Done Russ.:clap :clap All placed

Cheers Kev:ok

[kevsul]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat)

If you managed to get the early prices, that would be £53 returned for a £14 stake, based on £1 E/W patent. Cheers Kev:ok

Singles on betfair all 2 quid each win and place.. But back the jade twice at the place 25p e/w trixie Thanks .:ok

[mowgli77]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) Nice going Russ, I think we should both stick to the ew bets. :ok Some nice prices there. :clap

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) All this racing, and just the 2 bets today. 1 for the 'Normals', 1 for the 'Alternatives'. I also had 2 others that very nearly got selected, but not strong enough to post them up (for reference, they were Fullandby 4.00 Newm and Prime Powered 5.50 Good - let's hope they don't win!). So, here are the 2 for Saturday:- 'Normal' Bets FLIPANDO 3.00 Thirsk RPF 7/1 Very good race for the track here, 1m Thirsk Hunt Cup, Cl 2. Low draw is an advantage here so I'm opposing fav Minority Report who is drawn out of it in 12. Strong EW fancy here is for Flipando, a very consistent handicapper who generally is thereabouts in the top handicaps. Ran a decent 6th here on its reappearance over an adequate 7f, back up to a mile today definitely going to suit as it was staying on that day. Likes to come from off a fast pace which it should get today. Finished 2nd in this race last year to Minority Report, when only 1L back, but was drawn 14 that day as opposed to the favs 6, so tables are turned on the draw stakes today. Looks to be the one for money so take the 11/2 currently on offer at Skybet, for an cracking EW bet. 'Alternative' Bets NAKHEEL 5.45 Newmarket RPF 9/2 Superb days racing at HQ rounded off by a 1m4f handicap where strong fav will be the Stoute trained Ogee. Because of this, we can seek out some well priced EW fancies here, so preference is for the northern raider Nakheel, ridden by the in form Richard Hills. Once thought of as a 2000 Guineas contender, this horse has had some injury problems. However, has still been plying its trade in some very good company. Encouraging run recently behind 2 impressive types, Hattan and Championship Point. Reproduction of that effort here on its handicap debut will see this horse in the frame, especially with the increase in trip likely to suit. Big EW claims, so take the 8/1 on offer with Stan James.

[kevsul]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) Good Luck Russ. Going to do an E/w lucky 15 with the other 2.:hope

[kevsul]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat)

All this racing, and just the 2 bets today. 1 for the 'Normals', 1 for the 'Alternatives'. I also had 2 others that very nearly got selected, but not strong enough to post them up (for reference, they were Fullandby 4.00 Newm and Prime Powered 5.50 Good - let's hope they don't win!). So, here are the 2 for Saturday:- 'Normal' Bets FLIPANDO 3.00 Thirsk RPF 7/1 Very good race for the track here, 1m Thirsk Hunt Cup, Cl 2. Low draw is an advantage here so I'm opposing fav Minority Report who is drawn out of it in 12. Strong EW fancy here is for Flipando, a very consistent handicapper who generally is thereabouts in the top handicaps. Ran a decent 6th here on its reappearance over an adequate 7f, back up to a mile today definitely going to suit as it was staying on that day. Likes to come from off a fast pace which it should get today. Finished 2nd in this race last year to Minority Report, when only 1L back, but was drawn 14 that day as opposed to the favs 6, so tables are turned on the draw stakes today. Looks to be the one for money so take the 11/2 currently on offer at Skybet, for an cracking EW bet. 'Alternative' Bets NAKHEEL 5.45 Newmarket :clap :clap :clap RPF 9/2 Superb days racing at HQ rounded off by a 1m4f handicap where strong fav will be the Stoute trained Ogee. Because of this, we can seek out some well priced EW fancies here, so preference is for the northern raider Nakheel, ridden by the in form Richard Hills. Once thought of as a 2000 Guineas contender, this horse has had some injury problems. However, has still been plying its trade in some very good company. Encouraging run recently behind 2 impressive types, Hattan and Championship Point. Reproduction of that effort here on its handicap debut will see this horse in the frame, especially with the increase in trip likely to suit. Big EW claims, so take the 8/1 on offer with Stan James.

Got caught close Home.:wall But still a place.:clap