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jtw1

JTW1's Specialisation - Trends

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Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends [h=2]Return to action[/h]

The flat season kicks-off over at The Curragh today so lets see if we ca n find a winner
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The meeting starts, as usual , with a 2yo Maiden over 5f . The obvious choice would be Jim Bolger's ALERTNESS , remember he had a hat-trick here last season inc this race for the 3rd time in 3 seasons, but the odds look prohibitive . I'm preferring go with the K Prendergast Filly BEACH BELLE. Although Colts tend to win this [ 8 times in the past 10 ] there's usually at least of the Fairer sex that finish's in the first 3. 2 wins , 4 seconds and 5 thirds from 40 runners in 10 runnings The trainer does tend to enjoy a runner in this race , indeed at least of his charges has competed in this since at least 2002 and a fair record to match - 1 winner , 1 third and no less that
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second's in 11 years. BEACH BELLE may have a slight advantage over the Fav in that she was foaled on 14 Feb , 7 weeks earlier than ALERTNESS . Well worth an interest @ 6/1 . Sunday - 3.40 Curragh - PARK EXPRESS STAKES - Grp 3 ------------------------------------------------------ Upgraded to G3 in 2006 No obvious age advantage with a 50/50 split between 3yo's and the older generation 7/8 had won at 7 or 8f [6 at 8f ] 7/8 had won at least once 7/8 had won or been placed in a Listed or Group race 7/8 had an official rating , 6 were rated 98+ and were in the top half of those with a rating . Only 1 [jt-] fav has won from 8 . A O'Brien has ran 9 horses in 6 of those renewals , finishing 2nd on 4 occasions and the others were unp , so not a lucky race for him. Removing those rated 98 or under takes out 2/3rds of the runners leaving EUPHRASIA , MAJENTA , ODELIZ and WANNABE BETTER . EUPHRASIA is a Group 3 and Listed race winner and will act on the Going. She is now a 5yo [ Pollen won this as a 5yo ] and the winner is usually 3 or 4 [11 of the last 12] and has done all her winning over 9/10f so the drop back to 8f here might not be in her favour The trainer is not known for winning many races at this time of the year , his 4 year record for March/April is 3 wins from 43 runners. MAJENTA was 3rd in a Listed race but her 2 wins came on G/F and Dundalk's All-Weather surface [one run on an easy surface resulted in a 9th ] so it's hard to make a case for it on todays Soft/Heavy ground. ODELIZ is a UK raider from K Burke's Yorkshire yard. She has won at Listed level and twice on an easy surface. The assumption must be made that she is fit to win as surely they would not have went to the expense of travelling over the Irish sea without a decent chance ? WANNABE BETTER will probably start as market leader [ not an advantage on previous runnings] and it's hard to ignore the fact that Tommy Stack has won this twice with his previous 2 runners. She has won 2 Listed races , both over 8f and one of those was on Soft ground. The yard had a winner at Dundalk of Friday evening so fitness may not be a problem. I hope the decision to send ODELIZ over to Ireland will pay off but WANNABE BETTER will be a tough nut to crack but i'll take the 6.0 on offer thats generally on offer

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Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends

Good luck! I'm already on Bwana & Master Planner at 2.10 with Vote Often & Indigo Lady in the 3.40!
Well done with VOTE OFTEN gashead ..hard fought win at very nice odds ...though ODELIZ was going to walk away with it but Smullen never gave up with yours . BEACH BELLE done the business for me in the 1st so happy days...:loon BEACH BELLE 1st...took the 6.0 ODELIZ 2nd btn a head

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Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends DONCASTER - Saturday - 1.30 BROCKLESBY STAKES - 5f --------------------------------------------------- 15/16 returned at odds of 14/1 or UNDER [only 1 co-Fav] 13/16 were Colts. 14/16 were FEB / MARCH foals. 13/15 were sired by a horse which had an average winning distance [according to Racing Post ] of between 6.6f - 7.7 f [ 2009 winning sire's not quoted ] None had average of over 8.9f. Looking a bit closer into the sex of the winner and although Colts have won 13/16 runnings , Fillies have 3 wins , four 2nd's and nine 3rd places from under 25% of all runners. A filly has been placed between 1st , 2nd and 3rd in 11/16 runnings. 7/7 were sired by horses who had won at 5/6f in either Group 1 or 2 level. 6/7 of those Sires won at G1 , 1 at G2. 6/7 won at Group grade over 6f.

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Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends

DONCASTER - Saturday - 1.30 BROCKLESBY STAKES - 5f --------------------------------------------------- 15/16 returned at odds of 14/1 or UNDER [only 1 co-Fav] 13/16 were Colts. 14/16 were FEB / MARCH foals. 13/15 were sired by a horse which had an average winning distance [according to Racing Post ] of between 6.6f - 7.7 f [ 2009 winning sire's not quoted ] None had average of over 8.9f. Looking a bit closer into the sex of the winner and although Colts have won 13/16 runnings , Fillies have 3 wins , four 2nd's and nine 3rd places from under 25% of all runners. A filly has been placed between 1st , 2nd and 3rd in 11/16 runnings. 7/7 were sired by horses who had won at 5/6f in either Group 1 or 2 level. 6/7 of those Sires won at G1 , 1 at G2. 6/7 won at Group grade over 6f.
Using Sporting Life/ATR forecast odds i'll remove those over 25/1 - RED CONNECT , JOHNNY SORRENTO , TOYTOWN , WELL FLEECED , ENDISLIE , MONSIEUR JIMMY , PENALTY SCORER and COCK OF THE NORTH . Next i'll take out those born after 1st April - HOOFITHULLY . Now take out those whose Sire's winning ave dist is between 6.5f and 7.8f - ESCALATING , FLYBALL , NORTHGATE LAD . 4 of the remaining 6 had no ave dist attatched to their sire's. Take out those whose Sire's had NOT won a 5/6f Group 1 or 2 race OR had not won at Group grade over 6f - CORNWALLVILLE . Still 5 left to consider but after looking back since 1994 in renewals when there were 17+ runners the advantage is definately wth HIGH numbers when it comes to the draw - 1998 - 10 -16 -11 from 17 2001 - 21 - 8 - 13 from 21 2002 - 15 - 5 - 14 from 17 2003 - 16 - 13 - 12 from 18 2005 - 10 -2 -18 from 18 2008 - 19 - 14 - 13 from 19 2009 - 14 - 11 - 21 from 19 All on different types of going ranging from Soft to G/F So with that in mind take out all those left with a single figure draw - MAGIC FLORENCE and PADDY AGAIN . Despite Bill Turners excellent record in this i still have to take out PADDY AGAIN . DUQUESA PENGUIN - Trainer Jo Hughes has not had a 2yo winner in March/April in 3 season of training . MOUNTAIN MAN - Trainer Michael Easterby has managed 1 2yo winner in Mar/Apr since 2001 from 20 runners in that period . HORSFORTH - Trainer Tony Coyle has had 1 winner in 8 runners in Mar/Apr in 3 seasons . Disappointingly these 3 trainers are not known for having early season winners therefore i've had a look back and would like to bring CORNWALLVILLE back into the equation . Initially rejected due to his Sire not winning a Group race over 5/6f , MAFKI was nonetheless twice a Group 1 winner and this will be his first crop of 2yo's to run . On the training side JS MOORE is well capable of getting an early winner from his juvenile's , 4 from 22 in the past 3 seasons inc 3 First time out from those 4 winners. Nicely drawn in 15 he does appeal more than any of the other 3 of which i would go for the Filly HORSFORTH if pressed.

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Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Bot well beaten by COCK OF THE NORTH who was , ironically returned @ 14/1 !! Leopardstown 3.45 - 1000 Guineas Trial - G3 - 7F ----------------------------------------------- Looked back at the last 8 winners and found an interesting stat to start off with and that's that all 8 had previously had at least 2 runs before coming here , in fact the norm is 4+. Add to the fact that only one Favourite was successful but no winner was returned in double figures suggest's that this is a race where it may be profitable to look for an experienced horse in the top 3/4 in the market and that runner is AVENUE GABRIEL. A Listed race winner and placed in 2 Group 3's inc one over the C/D he is well experienced on the racecourse and comesfrom a yard which has had 2 winners on the AW in the past 14 days [from 4 runners] and had a 2nd and two 3rd's at The Curragh's opening fixture last Sunday [from 5 runners] so it's safe to assume that the stables horse's are fit and forward enough to do themselves justice . P D Deegan has had one runner in previous season's and it won this in 2010. Another stat is that 7 of the last 8 winner's Sires had a winning dist ave of between 7.8f - 9.6f and AVENUE GABRIEL's is 9.5f . A worry is that she had yet to run on the forecast going of Soft/Heavy but the sire's progeny have won on an easy surface so :hope Best odds available is 7.5 from Coral

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Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends AVENUE GABRIEL 3rd SATURDAY - NEWBURY - 1.50 - 12f - Group 3 [formerly the John Porter Stks] ------------------------------------------------------------------------ 6 of the last 6 winners had all previously won over 12f. 5/6 were making their calander year debut , last years winner had raced in Meydan and had a race on the AW at Lingfield 14 days earlier. 5/6 were rated 107+ [other had no BHA rating , French Import] , those 5 were in the top 4 rated in their race. 4/6 were won by a 4yo [ one other had no 4yo runner] , 4yo accounted for approx 50% of all runners - 28 from 59 . 4/6 had won or been placed in Listed/Group company [one other was making it's debut in this Grade] Class usually shines through so i'll stick those rated 107+ and all of those 3 have won over 12f and all 3 are making their seasonal debut's. CUBANITA is a C/D Group 3 winner who , for a 5yo , still seems to be progressing . He has only had 10 career runs with a record of 3 wins , 3 - 2nds and 2 - 3rds . His record with J CROWLEY on board catch's the eye - 2 , 1 , 3 , 2 , 1 , 5 , 3 , 1. The 5th placing was a respectable 3l defeat in a York Group 2 . On the negative side his 3 wins have came in Oct/Nov and he has never won FTO. , his record in races before the end of June is 3 , 9 , 5 , 3. NOBLE MISSION is a Group / Listed winner over 12f and , similar to CUBANITA , the ground should suit. However she did disappoint in this race last season when 3rd to UNIVERSAL and indeed he has dropped 4lbs since then. He usually comes to hand early [won on his 3yo debut] and should give a good account of himself . ASTONISHING from the Stoute yard has Ryan Moore on board , this Filly is a Listed winner over 12f who won by 7l in her final race of 2013 . That was only her 6th career race and therefore it would seem fair to assume she still can progress to Group grade . The trainer has won this races twice in the past 7 runnings . She has yet to run on anything softer than Good ground. Conclusion - Although ASTONISHING has the age factor on her side and should still be on the up , she has yet to race on slow ground while the stable have had a few fancied runners beaten in the past 3/4 days. NOBLE MISSION has an excellent chance in the conditions and is top-rated so i'd fancy his chance of placing at least but he may be toiling to the pregressive CUBANITA who should relish the conditions , esp after a C/D Group 3 victory at the tail-end of last season. He is 3rd top-rated and has his Jockey [Crowley] on board . There is still a doubt about his winning this early in the season but trainer R BECKETT has had 2 winners from 3 runners in the past 2 days inc one at Newbury today so i'm hopeful this one is similarly fit enough to win . 11.0 is available form Betfred and Betvictor

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Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Sunday - THE CURRAGH 3.55 - Grp 3 Gladness Stakes - 7f - 4yo+ --------------------------------------------------------------- Looked at all runnings since 2004 when 3yo were excluded 9/10 were 7f winners , other had won at 8f and had only raced once over 7f [finished 1l 2nd] 8/10 had won at Listed/Group level , one other was 3rd in a G3. 8/10 were rated 107+ 8/10 had won in either of their first 2 runs in previous season's [last season's winner had been a close 2nd in at least on of his 2 previous seasonal debut's] 6 had won at The Curragh , one had been placed in G1's on the course whilst 2 were making their course debut , the other had been placed. The 7f is somewhat of a specialist's distance and with previous winners usually rated 107 + it seems those 2 points are a good enough starting point and , handily enough , applying those 2 leaves one runner and thats the UK raider [and last years winner ] CUSTOM CUT . A close up 3rd in the Doncaster Mile 15 days ago will surely have put him spot on for fitness here , the drop back to 7f poses no problems as he has won all his 5 races over today's Distance as well as being a 2-time course winner and the going will also be in his favour. There's 4.0 on offer from Betvictor which i'll have little bit of.

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Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Made a boob today ....don't think it would have changed the decision to bet CUSTOM CUT but it was only after the race was run that i noticed that SRUTHAN was also a qualifier as it was rated 111 and had won twice over 7f !!!! Of course SRUTHAN won @ 9/4 beating CUSTOM CUT [4/1] into 2nd place !!!

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Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Thursday NEWMARKET - 4.40 - Earl of Sefton Stakes - 9f - 4yo+ ----------------------------------------------------------------- 10/10 were returned in the top 5 in the market 10/10 had won over at least 8f 9/10 with a rating were rated 100+ [ 7 were 109+ ] 9/10 had won at Class 2 or better , 6 had won or been placed in Group Company while 2 others were making their Stakes race debut. 8/10 had ran either once this season [2] or last raced in October [6] 6/7 who had a previous run at Newmarket [ either course] had been placed in the first 3 .

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Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends

Thursday NEWMARKET - 4.40 - Earl of Sefton Stakes - 9f - 4yo+ ----------------------------------------------------------------- 10/10 were returned in the top 5 in the market 10/10 had won over at least 8f 9/10 with a rating were rated 100+ [ 7 were 109+ ] 9/10 had won at Class 2 or better , 6 had won or been placed in Group Company while 2 others were making their Stakes race debut. 8/10 had ran either once this season [2] or last raced in October [6] 6/7 who had a previous run at Newmarket [ either course] had been placed in the first 3 .
Looking at todays winning times i would suspect that those who appear to favour it on the firm side of good will be disadvantaged tomorrow The lowest rated runner is on 104 , so can't really rule out any on the official ratings. Although 4 of the past 10 winners had won over 10f theses 4 had also won at 8f and there's a few in Friday's race who have not won over 8f and it looks like they are our first port of call , alongside those who like the going to be on the fast side.... DANADANA has won 6 times and all of those were over 10f , 4 of which were on G/F and one other on Polytrack [Fast] BOOM AND BUST , is a true Miler but all wins came on G/F and Firm ground. FIRST MOHICAN has never won over 8f ; is a 3 times winner over 10f , and has won over 17f over Hurdles. GOSPEL CHOIR has won 4 times , once over 10f and 3 times at 12f. That leaves 5 and of those ELKAAYED has not raced since the 31st of July and has failed to place in 2 previous runs in Group 3 company. You have to go back to 90/91 to find the last back-to-back winner [Terimon] which added to the fact that an 8yo has never won since the race's inception back in 1971 [probably not that many have taken part i would imagine] which rules out last season's victor MULL OF KILLOUGH , even though he has had a run 19 days ago over in Meydan. That leaves FENCING , FRENCH NAVY and JUST THE JUDGE . FENCING represents the in-form yard of John Gosden [another winner at Newmarket today] and is a twice Listed race winner inc once over 8f. He was highly tried last season running in the G1 Lockinge and the G2 Lennox Stakes [btn just 2l] after wiining that 8f Listed at Ascot. He finished 2nd in the Doncaster Mile a fortnight ago , ground was possibly too slow for him , but that should have helped the fitness level . He has been beaten in 3 runs at Newmarket but the first was on his debut , next time he was 6th behind CAMELOT in the 2000Guineas and then was 4th in a G2 after a 4 month break. Hopefully the better ground should suit ..:hope Here's a quote about his chance from Wm Buick's blog on ATR - If you’d told me after I won on FENCING (4.40) at Ascot 11 months ago that he wouldn’t win again in his next three starts I wouldn’t have believed it but unfortunately things just didn’t pan out for him although it was at Group 1 and 2 level last season. I didn’t ride him on his comeback at Doncaster in a listed last month when he was beaten a neck but I’d ignore that because the ground would have been too soft for him. That would have put an edge on him for the Group 3 Weatherbys Hamilton Insurance Earl Of Sefton Stakes and I’m pretty sure that the move up from a mile to nine furlongs will suit him, too. The only other time he tried beyond a mile was in the Dante Sakes as a three-year-old when he was third. When he puts it all together he’s a pretty smart horse. FRENCH NAVY represents Godolphin and being a winner over 8f anf 10f on G/S and Good ground suggest's the conditions should suit but the trainer has been quoted saying he would prefer it softer , quote taken from the Godolphin website - Charlie Appleby said: "French Navy has always been ultra-consistent. He has done well over the winter, although he would prefer a bit more ease in the ground. "He has run well at Newmarket in the past and is ready to go. He is a solid Group horse and, on the book, should be there or thereabouts, but softer going would suit him better." The yard had 5 runners at Newmarket today but none made the winners enclosure and i am put off by the increasing chance of faster-than-he-would want-it going. JUST THE JUDGE is another who was highly tried last season , running in no less than 5 Group 1's inc a 2nd in the 1000 Guineas followed by victory in the Irish version . She did have one race over 10f last season and was well beaten so i have a concern about staying further than the 8f shw has won over. It's also a worry her being a Filly taking on the Males at this stage of the year. Conclusion - The drying out ground should suit FENCING and alongside the positive comments from Wm Buick and the stable's excellent form i have to go with this one @ 5.50

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Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Unfortunately Buick couldn't get the selection to settle at all duing what looked like a slow run first half of the race , he was fighting for his head from when they left the stalls until about 2 out by which MULL OF KILLOUGH had flown to complete the double , followed by FRNECH NAVY who should be worth keeping an eye on next time out , as indeed should FENCING if able to settle in a race which more pace to it .

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Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Friday ..and we look to find the winner of the BET365 MILE and this is one of those races where there only a handful of stats but they are VERY strong. This is a race where the market and the official ratings point the way to the winner's circle with 10 of the past 11 winners coming from the first 3 in the betting and 9/11 rated 112+ with those 9 were either Top or 2nd top-rated . The 2 other winners were rated 108 and 110 respectively. The HANNON yard has won this no fewer than 7 times since 2004. Before the Mile we have the Group 3 10f 4yo+ Gordon Richards Stakes. Again we have a handful of relevant stats to consider with the strongest being the ability of the market to highlight the winner with 11/11 returned in the top 4 in the betting and 10 of those in single figures. The next is the fact that 10/11 were rated 110+. Next we have the fact that 10/11 had won over 10f . Finally , stat-wise , we have 9/11 had won at Group grade [other 2 won a Listed race]

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Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends

Friday ..and we look to find the winner of the BET365 MILE and this is one of those races where there only a handful of stats but they are VERY strong. This is a race where the market and the official ratings point the way to the winner's circle with 10 of the past 11 winners coming from the first 3 in the betting and 9/11 rated 112+ with those 9 were either Top or 2nd top-rated . The 2 other winners were rated 108 and 110 respectively. The HANNON yard has won this no fewer than 7 times since 2004. Before the Mile we have the Group 3 10f 4yo+ Gordon Richards Stakes. Again we have a handful of relevant stats to consider with the strongest being the ability of the market to highlight the winner with 11/11 returned in the top 4 in the betting and 10 of those in single figures. The next is the fact that 10/11 were rated 110+. Next we have the fact that 10/11 had won over 10f . Finally , stat-wise , we have 9/11 had won at Group grade [other 2 won a Listed race]
The top 3 rated in the Bet365 Mile are TOP NOTCH TONTO [118] , GARSWOOD [117] and MONTIRIDGE [115] and unsurprisingly all are in the top 3 in the betting forecast. GARSWOOD has won on G/S and at G2 grade BUT significantly has never won further than 7f . He might well stay the extra 1f here but the 8f at Sandown does take some getting with the uphill finish but according to Fahey's column in the Sporting Life site , Ryan Moore believes he will get the trip . He won FTO last season . The more rain the better for TOP NOTCH TONTO and the weather forecast says that's what he's going to get tomorrow . 3 times a winner over 8f the distance is suitable and he had won at G3 grade. Here's a quote from the Trainer on the SL site - "It will be an interesting race and we're looking forward to getting him started," said the trainer. "I'm sure he'll improve a lot for the run - we're getting him ready for the Lockinge - but he's plenty (of work) done and seems in good form. MONTIRIDGE hails from the HANNON stable whose record in this race is 2nd to none . A G3 winner and importantly a C/D winner on G/S going . Was well beaten into 5th behind TOP NOTCH TONTO at Haydock last year when an odds-on Fav . Conclusion - Who am i to doubt Ryan Mooer but until GARSWOOD proves he stay's the Mile i'm happy to leave him alone . The softening ground will suit TOP NOTCH TONTO but reading between the lines will he be fit enough to win first time out when as the trainer states his main target is the Lockinge in 3 weeks time. I have to forgive MONTIRIDGE's failure when 5th in the Hayock race to TOP NOTCH TONTO but when you take into account the HANNON stats in this coupled with the conditions that should suit [R Hughes's return is another positive ] i have to assume that the trainer fancies his chance of reversing the form and is therefore the selection at odds of 4.0 In the preceding GORDON RICHARDS Stakes at 2.10 we have 3 rated 110+ , again with all 3 at the top of the market. All 3 have won over 10f TELESCOPE represents the STOUTE stable and is a G2 winner and Sir Michael will be trying to win this for an 8th time . Well fancied for the Derby he missed the race due to setbacks and has the potential to be a G1 winner this season but this will be his first time running on ground with any sort of give in it and withmore rain forecast that has to be a worry esp when the Highclere manager state's in the SL that - "He's so well that there's a good chance he'll need the run, he's had proper blows after the last two pieces of work. "He's had a good break and this is a race Sir Michael likes to start off in, so hopefully he's in for a good season." NOBLE MISSION shoudn't mind the going but generally he's been campaigned over 12f , 2nd last time out over the 12f in the John Porter 2 weeks ago. He usually find one or 2 a bit better than him . SKY HUNTER represents Godolphin who seem to have overcome their traditionally slow start to the season , Bin Suroor has had 4 winners from his last 6 runners. This ex-French import should handle the going [ won on Heavy and G/S twice] and has won twice over 10f [ twice over 11f] The trainer state's that 'he will improve' for the race . Conclusion - The ground holds the key for me and i don't think it will suit TELESCOPE as much as it will the other 2 and i think the trainer has bigger fish to fry with this classy horse so will he be all out to win this ...? NOBLE MISSION is a consistant individual and always seems to run his race and should be spot-on fitness wise but i don't think the step back in distance against 2 higher rated rivals will help his chance . Which leaves SKY HUNTER as the selection . The going and distance hold no fears and alathough he has never won a Group race he has in fact only had one Group race outing when btn just over 2l in the G1 French Derby at Chantilly. Although the trainer reckons he'll improve for the run the vastly improved form of Bin Susoor' runners this early in the season get's him the nod from me. Odds - 2.62

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Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Perfect example of 2 horses who needed the run being well beaten by by fitter rivals .....:\ NEWMARKET 2.40 - PALACE HOUSE STAKES Group 3 - 5f - Good to Firm ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 10/10 were rated 103+ , 7 were rated 108+. 9/10 were in the top 6 rated runners . 10/10 had won at least one Listed / Group race. 10/10 had been placed 5th or better in their last race , 8 were placed 1st or 2nd. 9/10 had ran once that season or were making their seasonal debuts after racing last time out in October. 3 had ran in that seasons Abernant Stakes at the Craven meeting finishing , all 3 had won that race . 2 had ran and won the Cornwallis Stakes at Ascot back in October and 2 had taken on Group 1 opponents LTO . 8/12 were returned in single figures in the betting No horse has won this race twice since it's instigation back in 1961. As is the norm it usually pays to stick to the proven class runners at this stage of the season so take out those rated under 103 - IPTISAM , ROCKY GROUND and EXTORTIONIST. As the remaining runners ratings would suggest all the remaining 9 have won at Listed or Group races. However there are 2 runners who will be having their 3rd run of the season , DINKUM DIAMOND won the Cammidge at Doncaster but was beaten into 4th in the Abernant .A 6yo who has only won at Listed Grade [Rated 108] his odds of 20/1 sum his chance up and i can confidently discount this one. Harder to discount is last years winner SOLE POWER , even with 2 previous runs at Meydan which included a 7th place in a G1 [btn under 3l] , he is proven over C/D and on the going but he is now 7 and as stated above NO horse has done the double in this race , this will be 4th run in this race . MOVIESTA has not ran since the end of August and has appeared to need a run on his seasonal debut at 2 and 3 . Trainer B Smart has had one winner from 17 runners on Turf in 2014. No doubt an improving horse with G1 and 2 entries but i think he'll come on for the run here. JUSTINEO is a best priced 12/1 but has failed to win in 3 seasonal debut's and doesn't have a particularly great strike-rate , winning only 3 from 24 , with only one Listed win from those 3 . The stable is in form but i can't have this one at the first time of asking at this grade. ETON RIFLES ... a 9yo who needs give underfoot and never won above Listed grade i feel his chnce in this is poor to say the least . PEARL SECRET would have a better chance if the rain had arrived at Newmarket but it hasn't [ 3 of his 5 wins have been on Heavy/Soft ..other 2 on Good ] and his only Stakes win was a 6 runner race in which he was a 1/3 fav . May be good enough , esp with a previous run but on faster ground than he has experienced i'll pass this Northern raider over . That leaves KINGSGATE NATIVE , STEPPER POINT and the 3yo HOT STREAK . Bacl tomorrow with the selection...

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Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Morning all !! KINGSGATE NATIVE - Ok the most obvious thing that stands out is the fact he's now a 9yo BUT he has still been competing at the top with 3 Group 1 runs [best placed 3rd on ground that was probably too soft] , 2 Group 2 runs [winning one at Haydock ] and 3 runs in Group 3 grade [2nd , 3rd and 3rd and that 2nd was in last years renewal of this event btn 1l ] He loves the fast ground and more significantly his record running first-time-out is 2 , 0 , 0 , 1 , 2 , 0 and 2 , the first 2 unp races were Group 1's . STEPPER POINT - 2 runs on the AW should have him spot-on fitness wise and he has won at Listed grade but has failed 11 times when tried at Group class [best placed 2nd , unp in the other 10] Would be a surprise winner imho. HOT STREAK - represents the younger generation who despite having few runners have an excellent record with 3 wins and a 3rd from the highest rated of that age group. The case for the top rated 3yo is strengthened imo by the fact that 2 of those winners won the CORNWALLIS Stakes at Ascot back in October which HOT STREAK also won last season. He has won a G3 and a Listed race from only 6 runs , 2nd in the G1 Middle Park the race after his Ascot victory. One negative that can't be overlooked is the fact that he has yet to run on faster ground than Good and i see that his trainer would withdraw him if the ground was 'rattlingly fast' and maybe thats part of the reason that J Spencer [won twice and rode him in 4 of his 6 career runs ] has deserted him in favour of PEARL SECRET. He won at the first and second time of asking as a 2yo. Conclusion - Can't fancy STEPPER POINT purely on the fact i don't think he's good enough. HOT STREAK is still in the race as i type and i think with the watering they have been doing down there i'd be surprised if it was 'rattlingly fast' . He gets an invaluable 6lb's from the older runners but with the connections being quoted as saying the plan is that ' it's all about giving him a run somewhere as part of the plan to get him to the Royal meeting." i wonder if he'll be too hard pushed ? Which leaves the old boy KINGSGATE NATIVE as the selection ...he's usually fit early , has proven form in this race and the conditions and has a decent draw in stall 9. He showed last season as an 8yo he can still mix it in Group company and can take advantage of any lack of fitness from the other main players . At the odds of 14/1 with betvictor he's well worth a decent EW bet . I'll have a saver on HOT STREAK just in case !!

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Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Cheers Billy ...:ok Great run from the old fella ...2nd @ 12/1 :D..... finishing just in front of HOT STREAK in 3rd . Ryan MOORE rode a great race to complete the double for SOLE POWER .

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Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Interesting trainer stats for the 5.15 at Clonmel on Thursday . D WACHMAN has ran 4 runners since 2008 and all 4 have won at odds of 8/11 , 1/3 , 6/4 and 10/1. He runs 2 tomorrow with CIRCLING looking like starting the short-odds Fav. In the same race D WELD has ran 5 runners since 2008 with no less than 4 finishing 2nd . He runs VINTAGE NOUVEAU this time and this filly could be one to take on the Fav as it ran FTO only 20 days ago while CIRCLING ran 76 days ago. D WELD has had 9 winners from 20 runners in the past 14 days while WACHMAN has had 1 win from 12 in the same time period. It could well pay to go against the obvious here and go for VINTAGE NOUVEAU

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Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Had a good look at the LOCKINGE and OLYMPIC GLORY fits all the trends but the odds reflect it's chance and it should win ... However in search of better odds i perused the Maiden race straight after the main event [4.25] and discovered that the fairer sex hasn't disgraced itself in this 7f event. In the last 6 runnings , Fillies have won twice [ 6/1 and 7/1] while finishing 2nd in 5 [inc one at 33/1] and thats from approx only 25% of runners [23 from 88] There are only 5 fillies in todays renewal from 15 runners and 4 are currently all over 25/1 in the betting . The remaining runner is Stoute's DIANORA and she's nicely drawn in stall 13 . I'll take the 11/4 on offer.

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