JTW1's Specialisation - Trends

[jtw1]

Re: Trends Weather permitting heres one for CATTERICK on WEDS. 3.10 - 3M1F Nov Hurdle

2006	Cash King	6	10-12	5/4F	Mrs S J Smith	Dominic Elsworth	101
2004	Bacyan	7	10-12	11/10F	Mrs A Hamilton	Richard McGrath	105
2003	Silver Knight	5	11-1	11/10F	T D Easterby	David O'Meara	112
2002	Behavingbadly	7	11-4	10/1	A Parker	G Lee	112
2001	Winchester	6	10-9	9/4	J M Jefferson	Tom Siddall	110
2000	Micklow Minster	6	10-13	3/1	C Grant	P Ryan	112
1999	What A Tale	7	11-4	11/4	Mrs M Reveley	G Lee	106
1998	Birkdale	7	11-10	9/2F	L Lungo	R Supple	120
1997	Share Options	6	11-4	7/4F	T D Easterby	J Callaghan	104

8 out of the last 9 runnings has been won by a horse in the TOP 3 in the betting. 8 out of 9 runnings has been won by either a 6 or 7 y-old. 29 5y-olds have ran since '97 , with only 1 win . ICE TEA looks like being the only non-5y-old in the out of the first four in the betting and gets the vote. FAVS to avoid - LINGFIELD 3.20 1/8

[jtw1]

Re: Trends 3.10 CATT - The 5yolds get their revenge and finish 1st 2nd 4th + 5th with ICE TEA getting 3rd spot @ 5/2 :( LING 3.20 FAV - UNP :clap

[jtw1]

Re: Trends Not a great deal to go on for Thursday FAV to follow - 1.20 Fontwell 3 favs + 1 jtfav from 4 runnings FAV to avoid - 3.40 Fontwell 0/5.

[jtw1]

Re: Trends FONTWELL 1.20 FAV - 1ST @ 4/9:clap FONTWELL 3.50 [originally timed as 3.40 ,sorry] FAV - UNP :clap

[jtw1]

Re: Trends FRIDAY ------- WOLVES 4.00 - This 1m1f Handicap has been won by a horse in the 1st three in the betting 9 times out of 10 [inc 4favs + 1jt fav] ALL winners have come from the top 2/3rd's of the Handicap. Now here's the interesting trends - ALL previous winners of this race were course winners , and 8 out of 10 were C/D winners with the other 2 having won at 8f. Also ALL winners had been placed between 1st and 4th L.T.O. NONE had ran longer than 22 days previously. PERUVIAN PRINCE is the likely FAV ,2nd LTO, a C/D winner but last ran 35 days ago. DRAGON SLAYER - 2nd Fav in RP F/cast ,1ST LTO , C/D winner last ran 5 days ago. KILDARE SUN - 3rd Fav ,2ND LTO, C/D winner , ran 27 days ago. DARING AFFAIR - 4th Fav , C/D winner , ran 16 days ago but finished only 5th LTO. Strictly adhering to the past results , it all points to DRAGON SLAYER as its the only horse whose details fit into the TREND criteria for this race. However i'm going to include PERUVIAN PRINCE in the final selection as his Trainer K BURKE has ran horses in the last 2 runnings and both finished 1L behind the respective winners with favourable comments. Hopefuly the winner will be one of these two. FAVS to avoid - Wolves 3.00 0/7. FAVS to follow - Wolves 4.30 + 5.00 [ 2 divs ] 4 wins from 6.

[jtw1]

Re: Trends My head was up my arse yesterday with 2 mistakes 1- The FAV to avoid was correctly timed [3.40] but it was the venue i wrongly gave - should have been WARWICK not FONTWELL and , of course , it won :cry 2- PERUVIAN PRINCE is trained by R FAHEY not K BURKE , but FAHEYS record in the race IS the one that interests us. Sorry

[jtw1]

Re: Trends DRAGON SLAYER 3RD PERUVIAN PRINCE UNP as usual the winner came from the other 2 mentioned 1ST - DARING AFFAIR @ 17/2 KILDARE SUN UNP The 1st + 3rd were the only 2 from the 4 that had run under the 22 day limit and with hindsight that probobly is stronger trend than the horses placing LTO which was the reason for discounting the winner , especially on the flat/AW.

[jtw1]

Re: Trends SATURDAY ---------- WOLVES 12.35 - A 1m Handicap on the All Weather. 6 out of 7 runnings have been won by the top 2 in the betting. 4-6 yolds have won 7/7. 5 out of 7 winners have been drawn either 1 or 2 . 5 out of 7 winners were place 1st or 2nd LTO. ALL ran last time out[3] or 2nd last-time-out[4] no more than 25 days ago. Despite being a 10y-old KATIPOUR fits all the other criteria - last ran 21 days ago , 2nd LTO , Drawn 2 and is 3/1 2nd fav in the RP F/Cast. ----------------------------------------------------------- CHELTENHAM 2.45 - A Grade 2 Steeplechase , The last 9 runnings have been won by either the FAV [3] or the 2nd FAV [6]. 5 previous winners had ran in the KING GEORGE , NONE had ran after that race ,except the Irish win in 2003. ALL previous winners had won at GRADE 3 level [hurdle or chase] at least o once in their career. Grade 1 = 5 winners Grade 2 = 3 winners Grade 3 = 1 winner. 8 out of 9 had won in that season. OLD VIC falls into all the criteria , also his record after at least a 60 day break is - 1 ,2 ,f , pu , 1 , 1 , 1 is also a major influence. ---------------------------------------------------------- CHELTENHAM 4.30 - Just a pointer here and thats that the PIPE stable has won this 4 times from the last 7 times they have had an entry in the race. ------------------------------------------------------------ FAVS to avoid - 1.10 LING 0/7 [ a Maiden race interestingly] 1.45 LING 1/8 2.55 LING 1/8 4.30 LING 1/8.

[bowles10]

Re: Trends good luck Jtw, i noticed that the 1.35 Cheltenham only has 1 winning fav in last 9 so thats looks another to avoid.?

[jtw1]

Re: Trends KATIYPOUR 2ND @ 5/1 :( OLD VIC 2ND @ 2/1F :( FAVS to avoid - ALL LOST inc 1.35 at Cheltenham [well spotted BOWLES]:clap:clap:clap:clap:clap Leo - 1.50 The key to this race seems to be the GRADE 1 Nov Chase run on C/D at the Boxing Day fixture. 4 horses that either won or was 2nd in that race have won this event over the past 9 season's. ALL previous winners had either won or were 2nd LTO. SCHINDLERS HUNT won the GRADE 1 chase and shoud win this as well . Leo 3.25 - Take note of AITMATOV whose trainer ,N MEADE ,has ran 4 int this GRADE 3 Nov Hurdle and won with 3 of them. 7 out of 8 runnings have been won by either a 5 or 6 y-old.

[jtw1]

Re: Trends SCHINDLERS HUNT 1ST @ 8/13 F :clap AITMATOV 2nd @9/4f :( A bad case of seconditis this weekend ;)

[jtw1]

Re: Trends Wolves 2.10 - More a personal opinion for this one , with a couple of loose trends to go on. 8/9 previous winners came from the top half of the handicap. 8/9 were aged 4/5 y-olds. KINETA drops down to this class [6] for the first time after running 5th LTO in a class 5 LINGFIELD Maiden. The drop in class along with trainer W. MUIR'S pretty decent form [1 win ,a 2nd and a 3rd from the last 5 runners] makes this 14/1 a decent e.w shout IMO.

[jtw1]

Re: Trends KINETA - UNP Thats what happens when 'personal opinions' take over !!!! TUESDAY --------- FOLK 4.20 2m6f Nov Hur 8 OUT OF 8 won by 1st or 2nd Fav. 7 out of 8 won by 6 or 7y-old. 7 out of 8 placed between 1st - 3rd LTO CORRIB ECLIPSE is the RP f/cast Fav , won LTO but is an 8y-old and hasn't got the ground he would appear to prefer. MELBA TOAST has had 3 runs over hurdles , was 2nd LTO , is 2nd FAV and a 6Y-OLD , therefore earns the selection. TAUNTON 3.10 - Div II of the Nov Hurdle in which 3 trainers have won 8 of the last 9 runnings PIPE - 4 [no runner] , HOBBS - [2] , NICHOLS [2]. All pervious winners were in the 1st 3 in the betting . All winners were aged 4/6. 8 out of 9 had ran at least once over Hurdles. NICHOLS representative makes his debut over Hurdles , therefore i suggest P HOBBS' entry LEAD ON gets the nod . He's Forecast FAV , had one run over hurdles and the fits the age criteria. TAUNTON 4.40 - 2m1f NHF and it's a simple trend here , and thats the record of P NICHOLS . Even though it's only been run 3 times ,his stable has a record of 1 , 1 , 2 . 2 out of 3 favs have won. KING CAINE is the NICHOLS horse here and is the forecasted FAV. FAV to avoid - 2.00 Southwell 1/10

[jtw1]

Re: Trends MELBA TOAST 1ST @ 2/1 :clap LEAD ON 1ST @ 5/2 :clap [HOBBS also won DIV 1 of this Novice @ 4/1 :unsure] KING CAINE UNP :( FAV SOUTHWELL 2.00 - Won by a co-fav of 3 :@

[jtw1]

Re: Trends LINGFIELD 2.30 - A 7f 3y-old HANDICAP [ unusually] 8 out of 9 winners have been in the top 2 in the Handicap. ALL those 8 carried at least 9:00. 7 out of 9 were in the top 3 in the betting. With only two over 9:00 in the weights we can concentrate on those - SI FOO trained by A.BALDING [who won this last season], and is the F/cast FAV carrying top weight 9:08. HIGH TRIBUTE is trained by SIR MARK PRESCOTT and is 2nd fav carrying 9:02 BALDING has had 3 wins + 3 places from 12 runners PRESCOTT has had 3 wins + 2 places from 14 runners. SI FOO is the narrow selection due to the trainers slightly better record this season and the fact he won this race last season. NEWCASTLE 2.50 - A 2m Nov H'cap Chase. Has been run 6 times with no winner carrying over 10:12. ALL were aged between 5-8y-old. ALL were single figures in the betting. Only BARTON SUN meets all the criteria. NEWCASTLE 1.20 - FERDY MURPHY has an interesting record in this race when he has ran an entry in this Nov Hurdle. 7th , 1st , 4th , 1st , - , 2nd is just above the average to make it worthwhile keeping an eye out for AJAY , a 20/1 shot in the RP F/cast FAV to avoid - LEICS 3.10 - 0/6

[jtw1]

Re: Trends BARTON SUN 1ST @ 3/1 :clap SI FOO 1ST @ 5/6F :clap HIGH TIBUTE 2ND @ 4/1 , EXACTA PAID £4.20 :ok LEICS 3.10 FAV - 2ND :clap AJAY - 7TH of 18 @ 50/1 :(

[jtw1]

Re: Trends Only trend of note for THURSDAY is the FAV TO AVOID in the 1.45 THURLES Any one else out there had some of this weeks winners ???

[TurkeyLurkey]

Re: Trends Haven't checked in for a while but it looks like your hard work is really paying off now jtw. Great stuff!

[jtw1]

Re: Trends FAV 1.45 THURLES - 1ST 9/4 :( FAV to avoid - CATT 1.20 1/8. One slight pointer in the 1st at WOLVES tomorrow [AMATEURS RACE] is the fact the N.LITTMODEN seems to enjoy having a runner in it. With 6 races contested from the last 9 ran , his record stands at - 3rd , 6th , 1st , 5th , 4th and 2nd He runs 2 tomorrow with ROSS MOOR [8/1]carrying the top-weight of 11.7 and NIGHT GROOVE [25/1] off the bottom of the Handicap at 10.5. His daughter/wife [or some relation i assume] EMMA rides NIGHT GROOVE and she has ridden his last 3 entries in this event. QUESTION - The conspiracy theorists amongst us could be led to believe that ROSS MOOR has been left in to keep the weights down ,therefore leaving his 25/1 shot [which was last out only 2 days ago] ridden by a family member with a winning opportunity !!! As i say it's a SLIGHT pointer but i've always been wary when a trainer runs 2 in a Handicap and one is the top-weight .

[jtw1]

Re: Trends NIGHT GROOVE NR FAV CATT 1.20 - UNP :clap

[jtw1]

Re: Trends Wetherby 3.30 - A 3m Grade 2 Novice Chase .

2006	Halcon Genelardais	6	11-10	5/6F	A King	Wayne Hutchinson	150
2005	Ollie Magern	7	11-11	8/15F	N A Twiston-Davies	Carl Llewellyn	164
2004	Royal Emperor	8	11-4	3/1	Mrs S J Smith	Dominic Elsworth	163
2003	Keen Leader	7	11-6	8/11F	Jonjo O´Neill	L Cooper	154
2000	Arctic Camper	8	11-5	7/2	Miss Venetia Williams	A Maguire	142
1999	Kadou Nonantais	6	11-13	7/4F	O Sherwood	J Osborne	148
1998	Escartefigue	6	11-5	4/6F	D Nicholson	Richard Johnson	145

As you can see the FAVS have a pretty good record in this with 5 out of 7 prevailing ; of the 2 beaten , one fell [going well at the time] and the other finished 2nd. 6 of the 7 had finished either 1st or 2nd last time out. HOH VISS [1st LTO] is the current market leader with Betfair. FAV to avoid - Lingfield 4.00 - 1/7

[jtw1]

Re: Trends Also FAV to avoid 3.50 sand own - 0/10

[jtw1]

Re: Trends HOH VISS - FELL Sand 3.50 FAV - 4TH :clap Ling 4.00 FAV - 2ND + 3RD :clap SUNDAY --------- PUNCHESTOWN 1.35 - A 2m Nov Hurdle which has been won by either the FAV or 2ND FAV 4/4 times. 3 outof 4 had won LTO , the other had unseated his rider. 4/4 had won at least 2 races that season. 4/4 had ran at least 3 times that season. DE VILERA is the FAV , has ran 3 times this season , won LTO and that made it 2 wins for the season. MUSS 2.30 -Only 4 go to post for this 2m Juv Nov Hurdle and with 6 outright FAVS , 1 jt and a 2nd FAV winning from 8 runnings you can safely say that DEGAS ART is the selection . FAV to follow - PUNCHESTOWN 2.05 4/4, so SIGNATORY should bolt in !!!

[jtw1]

Re: Trends DEGAS ART 1ST 2/5F :clap DE VILERA 2ND :( FAV 2.05 PUNCH - UNP :( Nothing at all for Monday

[jtw1]

Re: Trends MARKET RASEN 1.50 - 2m1f Juv Nov Hurdle

2006	Slew Charm	4	10-12	5/1	Noel T Chance	Tom Doyle	116
2006	Jack The Giant	4	10-12	4/1	N J Henderson	Mick Fitzgerald	99
2005	Always Waining	4	11-4	11/10F	P L Clinton	Sam Stronge	110
2004	Dickensbury Lad	4	10-9	13/2	N A Twiston-Davies	Tony Evans	84
2002	Reviewer	4	10-12	11/4	M C Pipe	A P McCoy	128
1998	Torn Silk	4	10-12	9/2	P R Webber	J A McCarthy	114

5 out of 6 races were won by either the 2nd or 3rd FAV. Only 1 FAV has been successful. 5 out of 6 have been won by a horse carrying 10-12 [ 2004 ridden by a 3lb claimer] The FANSHAWE / McCOY partnership have had 8/18 hurdle winners together and they are represented by the 2nd FAV CONKERING [10-12]

[jtw1]

Re: Trends DOWN ROYAL 2.30 - 2M4F HURDLE

2006	Letterman	6	11-12	7/4F	E J O´Grady	P W Flood	106
2005	Doctor Linton	6	11-7	5/1	M J P O´Brien	T G M Ryan	130
2004	Native Jack	10	11-12	6/1	A L T Moore	C O'Dwyer	125
2003	Pizarro	6	11-12	2/9F	E J O´Grady	N Williamson	132
2002	Polar Vista	6	11-13	5/2	E J O´Grady	G Cotter	124

5 out of 5 carried 11-12/13 [2005 had 5lb claimer on board]. 4 out of 5 were 6y-old's. ALL were in the top 3 in the betting. ALL had been placed between 1st-4th LTO. ALL had ran between 1-3 times previously that season. I can't separate the top in the betting here with the FAV , POWERSTATION who has had 2 previous runs of which he finished 3rd LTO and carries 11-12. 2nd FAV , FAR FROM TROUBLE , has ran once this season , winning that one and , like the FAV ,carries 11-12. LUDLOW 3.10 - 2M4F H'cap Chase 7 out of 8 were in the top 3 in the betting. The winning weight range has been from 10-9 to 11-10. N.T. DAVIES has ran 4 in the last 8 runnings and has had 2 winners , a 2nd and a 4th. His BOB THE BUILDER won this last year and carries 4lb less this time ,while still within the winning weight range and is 2nd FAV in the RP F/cast. FAV to follow - 1.55 DOWN ROYAL - 3 clear, 1 jt and 1 co FAV in 5 runnings. FAV to avoid - 3.55 CARLISLE 1/7

[jtw1]

Re: Trends FAR FROM TROUBLE 1ST @ 6/1 POWERSTATION 2ND @ 4/5F :clap C.S.F paid £12.18 FAV 1.55 Down Royal - 1st 4/5 :clap Thursday --------- TAUNTON 1.20+3.20 2 Divisions of the Novice Hurdle 8 out of 9 were in the top 3 in the betting 9 out of 9 were aged between 4 and 7. The PIPE stable have won 4 out of 9. Div 1 - WISE OWL is one of PIPE'S runner's here and looks like being a short priced Fav at around 8/15. Div 2 - BEAU NASH is the only PIPE runner in this race and with the other 2 in the RP F/cast aged 7 , this could be a decent bet Both are ridden by AP McCOY. SOUTHWELL 2.00 - A 6f Handicap. The majority of winners came from the bottom 2/3rds of the Handicap. Only 2 FAVS have won in 10 runnings The main trend in this race is the record of J BALDING over the 10 runnings when out of 5 runners he has had 3 winners ,all different horses. One of those was unfancied at 25/1 and the other was 5th two seasons ago ; SOBA JONES was that horse , he runs tomorrow, and he has dropped 6lb's in the ratings , although at 10y-old that shouldn't come as a surprise. BALDING also has WINNING PLEASURE entered and the two occupy the bottom two spots in the Handicap. Preference is for SOBA JONES as the stable jockey rides this one. CLONMEL 3.35 - 2M H'CAP HURDLE Out of 4 runnings of this race , STANLEY RYAN has saddled 2 winners and two 3rd's at decent odds so watch out for MASON'S ARCH . FAVS to follow - Southwell 3.00 - 6 clear, 1jt from 9 '' '' '' - Taunton 4.20 - 6 clear , 1jt from 10

[RussP]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends 6/1 winner, and forecast up. Well done mate:clap

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends WISE OWL 1ST @ 2/5F :lol BEAU NASH 3RD @ 5/2 :( SOBA JONES 2ND @ 6/1 :\ FAV SOUTHWELL- 3.00 1ST @ 11/4 :clap FAV TAUNTON - 4.20 1ST @ 5/2 :clap

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends KEMPTON 2.35

2005	Bagan	6	11-4	4/1	C J Mann	Noel Fehily	130
2004	Dangerously Good	6	10-9	5/1	G L Moore	Jamie Moore	115
2003	Fork Lightning	7	10-12	5/1	A King	Robert Thornton	115
2002	Jacklighte Bellevue	5	10-12	2/1F	A King	Richard Johnson	114
2001	Heracles	5	11-4	11/4	B G Powell	A Maguire	116
2000	Bicycle Thief	7	11-2	100/30J	Miss Venetia Williams	Brian Crowley	127
1999	Kingsmark	6	11-7	8/11F	O Sherwood	Mick Fitzgerald	137
1998	King On The Run	5	11-4	15/8F	D Nicholson	Robert Thornton	131
1997	Sea Victor	5	11-4	2/1F	J L Harris	D Gallagher	124

9 out of 9 were in the top 3 in the betting. 9 out of 9 were aged 5-7y-old. 8 out of 9 had ran at least once over NH rules , but no more than 3 . 7 out of 9 were placed 1-3 LTO [ 5 wins, 2x3rds ] the others were 4th and a debutant. NONE had ran within 19 days of their last race [ only 1 over 39 days] N HENDERSON runs DUC DE REGNIERE , A 5y-o who has had 2 runs and finished 1st LTO and is the RP F/cast FAV . Last ran 42 days ago. P HOBBS runs OCEANOS DES OBEAUX , A 5y-o who has ran 3 times and finished 1st LTO ,is F/Cast 2nd FAV and last ran 23 days ago. Can't really separate these 2 but if i have to go for one it's P.HOBB'S runner simply due to the number of days since it's previous run. WOLVES 1.40 - A 1m1f H'Cap and only one trend of note to consider and thats the record of W.BRISBOURNE . Since 2002 he has ran 4 horses with results of 2nd , 1st , 1st , 1st. TWILIGHT AVENGER + MACHINATE represent the stable on FRIDAY and the former could be the one to concentrate on at 10/1 . FAV to avoid - WOLVES 2.10 1/8