slapdash Posted January 27, 2007 Author Share Posted January 27, 2007 Re: Slapdash Systems 2007 Just had an email from my dad which he had from blue sq saying that from today they're offering a place market on every UK race 30 minutes before the off. These prices will probably be lower than normal each way terms no doubt and you will probably only able to have £2 on, but might be worth monitoring over the next few weeks as this system makes huge profit via the place part of every bet. Any thoughts anybody Interesting. As you say, the odds will almost certainly be lower than EW terms, but certainly sounds worth having a look and seeing how they compare to Betfair. Actually, they might compile their market by looking at the Betfair place odds? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cavello Posted January 27, 2007 Share Posted January 27, 2007 Re: Slapdash Systems 2007 9/1 for Petit Turk with William Hills:hope Missed the price with Betfred. Place odds now less then Evens!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cavello Posted January 27, 2007 Share Posted January 27, 2007 Re: Slapdash Systems 2007 I would guess that Blue Square will derive their place prices from the exchanges and offer lower odds. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mileni4uk Posted January 27, 2007 Share Posted January 27, 2007 Re: Slapdash Systems 2007 Blazing Bailey 2.10 Cheltenham (3.7/3.75 24/25) I think it's time for ... :nana Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLH Posted January 27, 2007 Share Posted January 27, 2007 Re: Slapdash Systems 2007 :ok Time to :cow BTW both win and placed odds on Lodge Lane have shortened at Betfair (4.1-4.2/1.22-1.24) so I take it as definite :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rosco Posted January 27, 2007 Share Posted January 27, 2007 Re: Slapdash Systems 2007 Nice results today Slapdash:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLH Posted January 28, 2007 Share Posted January 28, 2007 Re: Slapdash Systems 2007 I can see only a few almosts for today: [scamperdale @13 - Wolv 4.35] [Fairdonna @4 - Kempton 1.15] [More Likely @8 - Kelso 2.05 Sportingbet] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted January 28, 2007 Author Share Posted January 28, 2007 Re: Slapdash Systems 2007 Clear Picture 1.15 Kempton (2.3/2.36 17.5/20) 14/1 Bet365 [scamperdale 4.35 Wolverhampton (2.88/2.96 15/16) 12/1 Totesport] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted January 29, 2007 Author Share Posted January 29, 2007 Re: Slapdash Systems 2007 Just one "almost": [Reem Two 2.30 Ludlow (1.96/1.99 7.2/7.6) SP] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted January 30, 2007 Author Share Posted January 30, 2007 Re: Slapdash Systems 2007 Arctic Rainbow 2.20 Folkestone (2.6/2.98 13.5/14) 12/1 Paddy Power L'Oudon 2.40 Taunton (1.3/1.35 4.2/4.3) 3/1 Bet365 Hold That Thought 2.40 Taunton (2.06/2.26 16/16.5) 12/1 Paddy Power [William Bonney 1.50 Folkestone (1.48/1.57 5.5/5.6) 4/1 Sporting Odds] [Mi Odds 3.00 Southell (3.5/4.8 22/30) 25/1 Bet365] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted January 30, 2007 Author Share Posted January 30, 2007 Re: Slapdash Systems 2007 Got a bit behind with updates: Coorbawn Vic 3.10 Towcester (3.25/3.45 19/19.5) 16/1 Betfred lost Killing me Softly 3.40 Towcester (2.36/2.52 15.5/17) SP lost [Mandatum 1.40 Towcester (1.92/1.97 9.4/10) 7/1 Betfred] lost Just one today: Canadian Danehill 1.35 Wolverhampton (1.93/1.99 6.8/7) 6/1 Sporting Odds non-runner Granakey 1.30 Southwell (1.7/1.71 5.8/6) 9/2 Ladbrokes lost [The Risky Viking 1.20 Fontwell (1.25/1.26 4/4.1) 5/2 Bet365] placed Rain and Shade 5.00 Wolverhampton (1.59/1.67 5.4/5.8) 9/2 Blue Square placed Blazing Bailey 2.10 Cheltenham (3.7/3.75 24/25) 20/1 Stan James won Petit Turk 4.15 Uttoxeter (1.85/2.02 8/10) 11/1 Betfred lost [Osana 1.00 Cheltenham (3.15/3.2 16.5/17) 14/1 UKBetting] lost [Massini's Maguire 1.00 Cheltenham (3.85/4.1 24/27) 20/1 Sporting Odds] placed [Lough Derg 2.10 Cheltenham (3.85/3.9 27/28) 22/1 Paddy Power] lost [Lodge Lane 4.15 Uttoxeter (1.26/1.35 4.5/4.8) 3/1 Sporting Odds] won Clear Picture 1.15 Kempton (2.3/2.36 17.5/20) 14/1 Bet365 lost [scamperdale 4.35 Wolverhampton (2.88/2.96 15/16) 12/1 Totesport] lost Just one "almost": [Reem Two 2.30 Ludlow (1.96/1.99 7.2/7.6) SP] lost Definites: Starting bank: 1000 Current bank: 1011.25 P/L: +11.25 (Win -45, place +56.25) Total staked: 620 W/P/L: 2/11/18 Yield: +1.81% [Almosts: Starting bank: 1000 Current bank: 1220.50 P/L: +220.50 (Win +66.50, place +154.00) Total staked: 520 W/P/L: 4/8/14 Yield: +42.40%] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted January 31, 2007 Author Share Posted January 31, 2007 Re: Slapdash Systems 2007 Lenny 2.10 Leicester (2.48/2.92 16.5/17) 14/1 VCBet [Castlecomer 2.10 Leicester (2.14/2.22 12/12.5) 9/1 VCBet] [sherwoods Folly 2.40 Leicester (1.51/1.55 7.4/7.6) 5/1 Betfred] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maccabi Posted January 31, 2007 Share Posted January 31, 2007 Re: Slapdash Systems 2007 Definites: Starting bank: 1000 Current bank: 1011.25 P/L: +11.25 (Win -45, place +56.25) Total staked: 620 W/P/L: 2/11/18 Yield: +1.81% your definites results are not the same as the results in the sports-punter site. why is that?? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted January 31, 2007 Author Share Posted January 31, 2007 Re: Slapdash Systems 2007 your definites results are not the same as the results in the sports-punter site. why is that?? Here I'm staking 10 points EW, whatever the odds are. On sports-punter, because of the rules there, the number of points I can stake depends on the odds, so I have to stake less on higher-priced horses. So because of my one 20/1 winner this month, my results at level stakes are a lot better than those on sports-punter. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted January 31, 2007 Author Share Posted January 31, 2007 Re: Slapdash Systems 2007 Arctic Rainbow 2.20 Folkestone (2.6/2.98 13.5/14) 12/1 Paddy Power lost L'Oudon 2.40 Taunton (1.3/1.35 4.2/4.3) 3/1 Bet365 placed Hold That Thought 2.40 Taunton (2.06/2.26 16/16.5) 12/1 Paddy Power lost [William Bonney 1.50 Folkestone (1.48/1.57 5.5/5.6) 4/1 Sporting Odds] placed [Mi Odds 3.00 Southell (3.5/4.8 22/30) 25/1 Bet365] lost Lenny 2.10 Leicester (2.48/2.92 16.5/17) 14/1 VCBet lost [Castlecomer 2.10 Leicester (2.14/2.22 12/12.5) 9/1 VCBet] placed [sherwoods Folly 2.40 Leicester (1.51/1.55 7.4/7.6) 5/1 Betfred] won Definites: Starting bank: 1000 Current bank: 947.25 P/L: -52.75 (Win -85, place +32.25) Total staked: 700 W/P/L: 2/12/21 Yield: -7.54% [Almosts: Starting bank: 1000 Current bank: 1266.50 P/L: +266.50 (Win +86.50, place +180.00) Total staked: 600 W/P/L: 5/10/15 Yield: +44.42%] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted February 1, 2007 Author Share Posted February 1, 2007 Re: Slapdash Systems 2007 Garlogs 1.20 Southwell (2.24/2.3 8.8/9.2) 8/1 Totesport Dysonic 1.50 Southwell (2.2/2.26 9.2/9.6) 8/1 Totesport Sophie's Dream 3.50 Southwell (1.86/1.9 14/14.5) 8/1 William Hill Strawberry 1.40 Wincanton (3/3.05 18.5/19) 16/1 Blue Square [blaze Ahead 4.00 Towcester (2.2/2.44 12/12.5) 9/1 Betfred] Won't have time to put these on Sports Punter, so sod's law says I'm due a good day! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted February 1, 2007 Author Share Posted February 1, 2007 Re: Slapdash Systems 2007 Garlogs 1.20 Southwell (2.24/2.3 8.8/9.2) 8/1 Totesport placed Dysonic 1.50 Southwell (2.2/2.26 9.2/9.6) 8/1 Totesport placed Sophie's Dream 3.50 Southwell (1.86/1.9 14/14.5) 8/1 William Hill lost Strawberry 1.40 Wincanton (3/3.05 18.5/19) 16/1 Blue Square placed [blaze Ahead 4.00 Towcester (2.2/2.44 12/12.5) 9/1 Betfred] lost Won't have time to put these on Sports Punter, so sod's law says I'm due a good day! Definites: Starting bank: 1000 Current bank: 971.25 P/L: -28.75 (Win -125, place +96.25) Total staked: 780 W/P/L: 2/15/22 Yield: -3.69% [Almosts: Starting bank: 1000 Current bank: 1246.50 P/L: +246.50 (Win +76.50, place +170.00) Total staked: 620 W/P/L: 5/10/16 Yield: +39.76%] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted February 1, 2007 Author Share Posted February 1, 2007 Re: Slapdash Systems 2007 Won't have time to put these on Sports Punter, so sod's law says I'm due a good day! Oh well! Could have been worse, ... better, ... however you want to look at it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted February 2, 2007 Author Share Posted February 2, 2007 Re: Slapdash Systems 2007 Two long-priced "almosts": [Curran 4.35 Catterick (5.7/7.6 55/80) 50/1 Sporting Odds] [Delaney's Triumph 4.15 Chepstow (6.4/7.8 36/42) 40/1 Bet365] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sensibleboy Posted February 2, 2007 Share Posted February 2, 2007 Re: Slapdash Systems 2007 How do you work this slapdash? I notice alot of your selections are placed, would you recommend just backing them all to place on betfair as it seems you do make a profit in that department? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mileni4uk Posted February 2, 2007 Share Posted February 2, 2007 Re: Slapdash Systems 2007 How do you work this slapdash? I notice alot of your selections are placed, would you recommend just backing them all to place on betfair as it seems you do make a profit in that department? I'm calculating this. And the results are not so great as you think. With 10pts stakes: The definites ... P/L: -22.71 The almosts… P/L:+28.25 .. from 3 or 4 days ago .. haven't made updates this week. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cavello Posted February 2, 2007 Share Posted February 2, 2007 Re: Slapdash Systems 2007 These "selections" are based on the idea that the exchanges represent the "true odds". What we are trying to exploit is the value produced by the arbitrary nature of bookmakers place fractions. Therefore in the long run the place component with the bookmakers WILL MAKE MONEY. The win component of these E/W bets in the long run WILL LOSE MONEY. But the combined effect will BE PROFIT. IMO opinion most bets should be in the range 2/1 to 14/1(2nd and 3rd Favs) and anything bigger should be staked very lowly. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted February 2, 2007 Author Share Posted February 2, 2007 Re: Slapdash Systems 2007 How do you work this slapdash? I notice alot of your selections are placed, would you recommend just backing them all to place on betfair as it seems you do make a profit in that department? The main criterion for selection is that the place odds you get from an EW bet are significantly better than the Betfair place odds, so place betting on Betfair will certainly do a lot less well than you'd do from the place part of EW betting. mileni4uk has been keeping track this year of how Betfair place bets would do (at least at the time I post: the place odds will be different nearer the time of the race). It's a bit early to draw any conclusion, but in any case, if there is a profit available, I'm sure it will be very small. I'm not as convinced as Cavelloman is that the win part of the EW bets will lose money in the long run: as well as finding value in the place part of the bet, there's probably some element of identifying generous early prices. For the record, last year the win parts of the bets made a profit, but the year before they made a loss. But in both cases the profit/loss from the win part of the bets was a lot less than the profit from the place part. What's clear is that even if they do make a profit, it's going to be very small. Basically, I'll be pleased to break even on the win bets, and I'm really aiming to make the profit on the place bets. If you're interested, in the first post in this thread I explain how the "system" works, and give some links to posts from last year where I give further details. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cavello Posted February 2, 2007 Share Posted February 2, 2007 Re: Slapdash Systems 2007 I pretty convinced if you are just using raw pricings. But if combined with form analysis then a profit can occur from the win component. But I will only swerved a "selection" if I feel the place odds are significantly incorrect based on form study. When I believe the win component is also value then I will increase my staking. N.B. I have added a staking component into my spreadsheet application which factors in place probability and win probaility to arrive at E/W staking levels. Todays selection were at the minimun level. While Sherwoods Folly was at the top level:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted February 3, 2007 Author Share Posted February 3, 2007 Re: Slapdash Systems 2007 Pommerol 1.00 Sandown (1.55/1.6 5.1/5.2) 4/1 Sporting Odds Ned Ludd 1.00 Sandown (1.56/1.6 5.9/6.2) SP Iron Man 3.50 Sandown (4.2/4.5 19/19.5) 18/1 Sporting Odds [straw Bear 2.10 Sandown (1.43/1.44 4.1/4.2) SP] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cavello Posted February 3, 2007 Share Posted February 3, 2007 Re: Slapdash Systems 2007 On all above except Iron Man.( I don't do big field handicaps):ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted February 4, 2007 Author Share Posted February 4, 2007 Re: Slapdash Systems 2007 Red Spell 3.20 Kempton (1.36/1.39 3.65/3.7) 11/4 Paddy Power Party Boss 3.20 Kempton (2.6/2.76 11/11.5) 11/1 Betfred Merry Maker 2.00 Musselburgh (1.21/1.23 4.5/4.6) 3/1 Sporting Odds Sharp Reply 2.00 Musselburgh (1.47/1.5 7.4/8) SP Polly Whitefoot 4.00 Musselburgh (2.66/3.05 12/12.5) 12/1 Betfred [Carroll's O'Tully 2.40 Fontwell (5.2/5.7 26/29) 25/1 Sporting Odds] [Gazump 3.40 Fontwell (3.4/5.2 34/44) 33/1 Sporting Odds] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mileni4uk Posted February 4, 2007 Share Posted February 4, 2007 Re: Slapdash Systems 2007 What about Kyber in the 1.30 Musselburgh, mate ??? 16.1 -> 14.5/1 5.0 -> 3.9 ... enough difference I think. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted February 4, 2007 Author Share Posted February 4, 2007 Re: Slapdash Systems 2007 What about Kyber in the 1.30 Musselburgh, mate ??? 16.1 -> 14.5/1 5.0 -> 3.9 ... enough difference I think. Yes. :ok As usual, I won't count it as an "official" selection for the records, though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mileni4uk Posted February 4, 2007 Share Posted February 4, 2007 Re: Slapdash Systems 2007 Smells like a winner then :lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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