slapdash Posted January 2, 2007 Share Posted January 2, 2007 I decided I was spending too much time last year posting full details of my selections here and on Sports Punter, so I'm going to adopt a new, leaner approach this year. I'll post all my selections here, including the "almost" ones that I would only have used in my EW Doubles thread last year. The format will be like this: Some Horse 2.15 Hexham (1.75/1.80 5.90/5.95) 5/1 Ladbrokes (don't bet on that, I just made it up!), giving the name, race, Betfair place and win odds (lay/back) and the price I'm taking and a bookmaker offering that price. If I'm taking SP, it will just be Some Horse 2.15 Hexham (1.75/1.80 5.90/5.95) SP and if it's one of the "almosts" that I'd only back in EW doubles myself, then I'll put in in brackets [some Horse 2.15 Hexham (1.75/1.80 5.90/5.95) 5/1 Ladbrokes] Just a reminder of how the system works, for the new year: Many of my selections are in races with short-priced (odds on or close to it) favourites, or races with three places paid and shortish priced first and second favourites. If the best early price available on a horse is about the same or better than the Betfair win price, and the price available to lay the place on Betfair is at least 10% lower than the price you get for the place in an each-way bet at the best early price then it's a selection. Other selections come from large handicap races with 16+ runners (so 4 places paid). The system is the same except that the lay place price should be at least 20% lower than the place price from an each-way bet. These are just guidelines, and other factors may sway me in borderline cases (e.g., I may leave out a borderline case if it's in an 8-runner race and there may be a non-runner cutting the race to two paid places). Also, if the Betfair win price is particularly high/low compared to the early prices I'll let this tighten/loosen my requirements for the place price. The "almosts" that I'll only bet in doubles tend to be ones where the Betfair prices suggest that there is a lot of value in the place part of an EW bet but poor value in the win part. They'll also include some that are the wrong side of borderline for other reasons. All bets are each-way. I won't vary the stake, and will keep records for a 10 point each way level stake. I'll keep separate records for the "definites" and "almosts", based on a 1000 point starting bank in each case. See http://www.punterslounge.com/forum/showthread.php?t=22876 and http://www.punterslounge.com/forum/showthread.php?t=19163 for last year's threads, where more details of the systems are given. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mileni4uk Posted January 2, 2007 Share Posted January 2, 2007 Re: Slapdash Systems 2007 You have all the :hope in the world from me, mate!! Wish you 2007 to be your best punting year :ok P.S. Don't you just see from now on how this thread will be opened over 400,000 times and will have more that 2000 posts :lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pot rice Posted January 2, 2007 Share Posted January 2, 2007 Re: Slapdash Systems 2007 Good Luck mate! Will you still be doing the ew doubles in a seperate thread? Cheers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted January 2, 2007 Author Share Posted January 2, 2007 Re: Slapdash Systems 2007 Something Simple 12.40 Ayr (3.9/4.3 21/23) 20/1 Betfred Neutron 1.40 Ayr (1.42/1.44 4.8/4.9) 7/2 Sporting Odds Count Boris 1.30 Folkestone (1.29/1.31 3.75/3.9) 11/4 Betfred Hibernian 2.00 Folkestone (1.49/1.5 8.6/8.8) SP Mustammer 2.55 Southwell (1.86/2.08 7.6/7.8) SP Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted January 2, 2007 Author Share Posted January 2, 2007 Re: Slapdash Systems 2007 And one "almost": [supreme Copper 1.30 Folkestone (1.97/2.02 10.5/11) SP] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted January 2, 2007 Author Share Posted January 2, 2007 Re: Slapdash Systems 2007 Good Luck mate! Will you still be doing the ew doubles in a seperate thread? Cheers No. I decided it was just taking too much of my time. But all the selections will be posted here, and I'll still be backing them in doubles myself. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bestbets Posted January 2, 2007 Share Posted January 2, 2007 Re: Slapdash Systems 2007 Hi, slapdash(BBP) I do not understand about doubles :-( Doubles will include all variations of selections in this thread? 14 doubles for today... I am right? Thanks Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted January 2, 2007 Author Share Posted January 2, 2007 Re: Slapdash Systems 2007 Hi' date=' [b']slapdash(BBP) I do not understand about doubles :-( Doubles will include all variations of selections in this thread? 14 doubles for today... I am right? Thanks I won't be keeping records of doubles any more. If I were, every possible combination would be a double. Today that would give 12 doubles (6 selections in total, which would give 15 doubles, but two are in the same race which eliminates one, and two more are eliminated because the prices are not available at the same bookies. I never made any clever decisions about which horses to put in doubles: I just did all that were possible taking the best prices. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted January 2, 2007 Author Share Posted January 2, 2007 Re: Slapdash Systems 2007 I will still post an occasional EW Lucky 15 in the "At the Races" forum when I have 4 selections that I'm prepared to take at SP. ... in fact, I did today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cataclyptic Posted January 2, 2007 Share Posted January 2, 2007 Re: Slapdash Systems 2007 Welcome back Slapdash and may the force be with you throughout the year! PS: I trust you enjoyed the break. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pinkisntwell Posted January 2, 2007 Share Posted January 2, 2007 Re: Slapdash Systems 2007 How do you pick the bets that you take on SP Slapdash? Since you don't know the exact price. Also, what bookie do you use for your SP bets? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted January 2, 2007 Author Share Posted January 2, 2007 Re: Slapdash Systems 2007 How do you pick the bets that you take on SP Slapdash? Since you don't know the exact price. Also, what bookie do you use for your SP bets? Various factors, and I don't always get it right. Most important: if the Betfair win price is lower than the best early price, I'll almost always take the early price; if there's one bookie with a much better price than the others, I'll usually take that; if several bookies have the same (best) early price, I'll tend to take SP; I've noticed that in races with two short priced horses, the price of the third favourite often drifts (though this is just an observation, and I can't say I've checked it carefully) so I'll take SP on these unless there's a good reason not to. On horses in large handicaps (with 16+ runners) I always take the early price: the SP is almost always lower. I use various bookies, and often spread my bet over several when I take SP. So long as you use a trustworthy bookie, I can't see that it makes much difference, although you'll sometimes get minor offers (no 5p Rule deductions, both horses paid in a dead heat,etc.) and I suppose you may as well use these bookies, although it will rarely make a difference. Having said that, two of my local high-street bookies are having a price war at the moment and are paying one step above SP (e.g., 11/2 instead of 5/1) on the win part of single bets at SP of about 5/1 and above, so I use them if I have the time to go there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted January 3, 2007 Author Share Posted January 3, 2007 Re: Slapdash Systems 2007 I'll update with yesterday's results later. For today: Vecchio Senso 12.20 Wetherby (1.96/2.04 7.8/8) 7/1 Ladbrokes and one "almost": [Misleain 2.30 Wetherby (5.1/5.5 27/30) 25/1 Paddy Power] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pinkisntwell Posted January 3, 2007 Share Posted January 3, 2007 Re: Slapdash Systems 2007 How about Ellway Prospect on Weatherby 1.25? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted January 3, 2007 Author Share Posted January 3, 2007 Re: Slapdash Systems 2007 Sean Graham have 10/1 (!) for Vecchio Senso. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted January 3, 2007 Author Share Posted January 3, 2007 Re: Slapdash Systems 2007 How about Ellway Prospect on Weatherby 1.25? There's a non-runner, and so only seven runners, which means only first two paid in an EW bet, but the Betfair place price will still be for the first three, so the odds aren't comparable. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pinkisntwell Posted January 3, 2007 Share Posted January 3, 2007 Re: Slapdash Systems 2007 There's a non-runner, and so only seven runners, which means only first two paid in an EW bet, but the Betfair place price will still be for the first three, so the odds aren't comparable. Hmmm, I think I placed the bet about an hour ago and there wasn't a NR then if I recall correctly... I may be wrong. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted January 4, 2007 Author Share Posted January 4, 2007 Re: Slapdash Systems 2007 Just a few "almosts" today: [buckland Gold 12.40 Fontwell (2.7/2.8 17/18.5) SP] [Viable 1.30 Lingfield (2.36/2.7 15.5/16) SP] [Naxox 1.30 Lingfield (3.65/3.7 29/30) SP] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted January 5, 2007 Author Share Posted January 5, 2007 Re: Slapdash Systems 2007 Catching up with the results: Something Simple 12.40 Ayr (3.9/4.3 21/23) 20/1 Betfred lost Neutron 1.40 Ayr (1.42/1.44 4.8/4.9) 7/2 Sporting Odds lost Count Boris 1.30 Folkestone (1.29/1.31 3.75/3.9) 11/4 Betfred placed Hibernian 2.00 Folkestone (1.49/1.5 8.6/8.8) SP placed (7/2) Mustammer 2.55 Southwell (1.86/2.08 7.6/7.8) SP lost [supreme Copper 1.30 Folkestone (1.97/2.02 10.5/11) SP] lost Vecchio Senso 12.20 Wetherby (1.96/2.04 7.8/8) 7/1 Ladbrokes lost [Misleain 2.30 Wetherby (5.1/5.5 27/30) 25/1 Paddy Power] placed [buckland Gold 12.40 Fontwell (2.7/2.8 17/18.5) SP] lost [Viable 1.30 Lingfield (2.36/2.7 15.5/16) SP] lost [Naxox 1.30 Lingfield (3.65/3.7 29/30) SP] lost Definites: Starting bank: 1000 Current bank: 914.25 P/L: -85.75 (Win -60, place -25.75) Total staked: 120 Yield: -71.46% [Almosts: Starting bank: 1000 Current bank: 972.50 P/L: -27.50 (Win -50, place +22.50) Total staked: 100 Yield: -27.50%] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted January 5, 2007 Author Share Posted January 5, 2007 Re: Slapdash Systems 2007 Just one "almost": [snake Rave 12.40 Musselburgh (4.3/4.5 60/65) 40/1 Totesport] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted January 6, 2007 Author Share Posted January 6, 2007 Re: Slapdash Systems 2007 [snake Rave 12.40 Musselburgh (4.3/4.5 60/65) 40/1 Totesport] lost Definites: Starting bank: 1000 Current bank: 914.25 P/L: -85.75 (Win -60, place -25.75) Total staked: 120 Yield: -71.46% [Almosts: Starting bank: 1000 Current bank: 952.50 P/L: -47.50 (Win -60, place +12.50) Total staked: 120 Yield: -39.58%] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted January 6, 2007 Author Share Posted January 6, 2007 Re: Slapdash Systems 2007 Senora Snoopy 1.10 Haydock (1.36/1.37 3.95/4) 3/1 Paddy Power Just Stunning 1.10 Haydock (2.8/2.96 15.5/16) 14/1 Sporting Odds Golden Alchemist 5.20 Kempton (2.2/2.3 9.6/11.5) 9/1 Sporting Odds Voice Mail 12.25 Lingfield (1.86/1.97 6.6/6.8) 6/1 Paddy Power Jocheski 12.55 Lingfield (1.41/1.48 6.4/6.6) 5/1 Paddy Power Brave Jack 2.00 Lingfield (1.98/1.99 8.6/8.8) Blue Square And one "almost" [six Day War 12.55 Lingfield (1.81/1.94 15/16.5) 8/1 Paddy Power Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted January 7, 2007 Author Share Posted January 7, 2007 Re: Slapdash Systems 2007 Just one today: Bold Trump 2.20 Southwell (3.3/3.55 17.5/20) 16/1 William Hill Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mileni4uk Posted January 7, 2007 Share Posted January 7, 2007 Re: Slapdash Systems 2007 What about 2.50 South Wodhill Schnaps 20/1 bookies 19/1 Betfair we get 6 .. lay price is 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mileni4uk Posted January 7, 2007 Share Posted January 7, 2007 Re: Slapdash Systems 2007 1.50 Southwell - Wings Of Morning 20/1 Stan James (18/1 Betfair) We get 5 for the place. Lay price is 4.2 :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted January 8, 2007 Author Share Posted January 8, 2007 Re: Slapdash Systems 2007 Tora Petcha 2.00 Ludlow (3.25/3.4 14.5/15.5) 14/1 Sporting Odds Hot Lips Page 2.00 Ludlow (4.3/4.6 20/27) 20/1 Sporting Odds Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mileni4uk Posted January 8, 2007 Share Posted January 8, 2007 Re: Slapdash Systems 2007 The 20/1 is gone, but there is a value in The Local currently trading 16/1 ... we get 5 for the place ... the lay price for the place is 4.1 (the place itself is 3.9). Win price just a bit higher 17/1 @ Betfair. :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rosco Posted January 8, 2007 Share Posted January 8, 2007 Re: Slapdash Systems 2007 Good Luck This Year SlapDash Followed you quite alot at the moment, Not betting at the Moment But when Iy do I will check this thread Only frustration is by the time I see the posts the bookies have reduced thier odds. I am sure they watch movements. "someones watching you" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted January 8, 2007 Author Share Posted January 8, 2007 Re: Slapdash Systems 2007 Senora Snoopy 1.10 Haydock (1.36/1.37 3.95/4) 3/1 Paddy Power placed Just Stunning 1.10 Haydock (2.8/2.96 15.5/16) 14/1 Sporting Odds lost Golden Alchemist 5.20 Kempton (2.2/2.3 9.6/11.5) 9/1 Sporting Odds lost Voice Mail 12.25 Lingfield (1.86/1.97 6.6/6.8) 6/1 Paddy Power placed Jocheski 12.55 Lingfield (1.41/1.48 6.4/6.6) 5/1 Paddy Power placed Brave Jack 2.00 Lingfield (1.98/1.99 8.6/8.8) Blue Square lost And one "almost" [six Day War 12.55 Lingfield (1.81/1.94 15/16.5) 8/1 Paddy Power placed Just one today: Bold Trump 2.20 Southwell (3.3/3.55 17.5/20) 16/1 William Hill lost Tora Petcha 2.00 Ludlow (3.25/3.4 14.5/15.5) 14/1 Sporting Odds lost Hot Lips Page 2.00 Ludlow (4.3/4.6 20/27) 20/1 Sporting Odds placed Definites: Starting bank: 1000 Current bank: 852.25 P/L: -147.75 (Win -150, place +2.25) Total staked: 300 W/P/L: 0/6/9 Yield: -49.25% [Almosts: Starting bank: 1000 Current bank: 958.50 P/L: -41.50 (Win -70, place +28.50) Total staked: 140 W/P/L: 0/2/5 Yield: -29.64%] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted January 9, 2007 Author Share Posted January 9, 2007 Re: Slapdash Systems 2007 Political Pendant 1.05 Sedgefield (3.4/3.6 26/32) 20/1 Blue Square [sunny Brook 1.05 Sedgefield (3.05/3.8 40/42) 25/1 Blue Square] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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