WILLIAM HILL HANDICAP CHASE

[Aykay1]

The trends show we should be looking for a horse aged between 8-11 years old. We therefore lose MARLBOROUGH, ROYAL AUCLAIR, SHARDAM, KELAMI, YOU'RE AGOODUN & DARK STRANGER. Im also going to ignore anything trained by Pipe or Nicholls. Martin Pipe is 0/22 in this race whilst Nicholls is 0/20 in handicap chases at the festival. Therefore we wave goodbye to CHICUELO and put an extra line through ROYAL AUCLAIR for good measure. As far as MARLBOROUGH is concerned, only 2 of the last 19 winners carried more than 11stone 2lb's which gives him another negative - he looks up against it today. Our shortlist now is: TYNEANDTHYNEAGAIN, HAUT CERCY, FORK LIGHTNING AND MASTER TERN. FORK LIGHTNING, although a promising horse with talent does not convince with his jumping and blundered his way through his last race. He will need to jump perfectly t oday. If he does, he will go close but im going to swerve him on this basis. TYNEANDTYNEAGAIN would prefer softer ground and is another whose jumping doesnt convince. HAUT CERCY looks a strong bet here. Was second last year and has clearly been laid out for this all season. The only concern is that he is a little hard to win with - only 2 wins from 13 appearances. MASTER TERN is the clear value alternative. Horses from out of the handicap do not have a good record - only 2 out of 31 have bucked the trend but from only 1lb out of the handicap, i am willing to waive this. He is seemingly out of form but his record in March-April reads an impressive 11131(4-5) and has chosen this race from a host of other festival entries. Bets (10 points to stake) HAUT CERCY: 8 points win MASTER TERN: 1 point ew