WorkingForTheEnemy Posted November 4, 2006 Share Posted November 4, 2006 Between the four Scottish leagues they have an average record of 35% away wins this season. I havnt checked back the exact figures for previous years but recall from memory that this high away percent is a regular thing, especially in the lower divisions. Quite a few of this away wins are probably accounted for by some teams total dominance such as Celtic. What I want to see is if a profit can be made from backing away games north of the border. The plan will be to back all away sides with odds of 7/4 (2.75) or above. 7/4 suggests a 36% strikerate which is slightly above the rate of away wins but will hopefuly help catch a few more results. Assaid above, many of these away wins are likely to be odds on sides but this is just to see whether there's enough big prices ones to create a profit. This is purely a paper test and has not been backtested. I will start with a bank of 100pts and all bets will be a level stake of 1pt. 4th - 5th November Celtic - Hearts @ 7.50 Dunfermline - Falkirk @ 2.75 Hibernian - Kilmarnock @ 4.00 Motherwell - St Mirren @ 3.70 St Johnstone - Partick @ 3.70 Cowdenbeath - Raith @ 3.50 Morton - Peterhead @ 8.00 Stirling Albion - Alloa @ 4.50 Dumbarton - Berwick @ 3.20 East Fife - Elgin @ 10.00 Queens Park - Albion @ 4.00 Stenhousemuir - East Stirling @ 9.55 1pt each 12pts total stake Bank:88pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WorkingForTheEnemy Posted November 4, 2006 Author Share Posted November 4, 2006 Re: When the Scots are away A little unsure of prices now. I looked back at the results so far and a lot of the away wins seem to fall between 2.00 and 2.75. Unsure whether including this games would add enough winners to compensate for the extra stakes. Ill leave it as it is for this week. I may decide to run two banks. One as we are and one for odds above EVS. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted November 4, 2006 Share Posted November 4, 2006 Re: When the Scots are away You'd do weel to concentrate on DIV 3 up here WFTE , 38% aways is 3% higher than divs1+2 and 5% more than the Premier Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WorkingForTheEnemy Posted November 4, 2006 Author Share Posted November 4, 2006 Re: When the Scots are away 4th - 5th November Celtic - Hearts @ 7.50 2-1 Dunfermline - Falkirk @ 2.75 0-3 Hibernian - Kilmarnock @ 4.00 2-2 Motherwell - St Mirren @ 3.70 0-0 St Johnstone - Partick @ 3.70 2-0 Cowdenbeath - Raith @ 3.50 1-2 Morton - Peterhead @ 8.00 4-2 Stirling Albion - Alloa @ 4.50 5-0 Dumbarton - Berwick @ 3.20 2-0 East Fife - Elgin @ 10.00 1-1 Queens Park - Albion @ 4.00 2-1 Stenhousemuir - East Stirling @ 9.55 2-0 1pt each 12pts total stake Bank:88pts 2 winners. It was looking good at one point. Kilmarnock led twice, Hearts led and Peterhead were 2-0 up. Stats Bets:12 Wins:2 Strikerate:16.67% Returns:6.25pts Profit:-5.75pts Yield:-47.92% New Bank:94.25pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WorkingForTheEnemy Posted November 5, 2006 Author Share Posted November 5, 2006 Re: When the Scots are away 6th November Inverness vs Aberdeen @ 3.00 1pt Bank:93.25pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WorkingForTheEnemy Posted November 10, 2006 Author Share Posted November 10, 2006 Re: When the Scots are away 6th November Inverness vs Aberdeen @ 3.00 1-1 1pt 11-12th November Aberdeen - Motherwell @ 4.50 Hibernian - Inverness @ 4.00 Rangers - Dunfermline @ 13.00 Gretna - Queen Of South @ 10.00 Hamilton - Airdrie @ 5.50 Livingston - Dundee @ 4.00 Ayr - Alloa @ 4.50 Brechin - Raith @ 4.33 Cowdenbeath - Forfar @ 5.20 Stranraer - Peterhead @ @ 2.75 Arbroath - East Stirling @ 9.55 Elgin - Albion Rovers @ 2.75 Stenhousemuir - Dumbarton @ 2.80 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WorkingForTheEnemy Posted November 12, 2006 Author Share Posted November 12, 2006 Re: When the Scots are away 11-12th November Aberdeen - Motherwell @ 4.50 2-1 Hibernian - Inverness @ 4.00 2-0 Rangers - Dunfermline @ 13.00 2-0 Gretna - Queen Of South @ 10.00 5-0 Hamilton - Airdrie @ 5.50 2-1 Livingston - Dundee @ 4.00 2-3 Ayr - Alloa @ 4.50 0-1 Brechin - Raith @ 4.33 1-0 Cowdenbeath - Forfar @ 5.20 3-2 Stranraer - Peterhead @ @ 2.75 2-1 Arbroath - East Stirling @ 9.55 1-2 Elgin - Albion Rovers @ 2.75 0-3 Stenhousemuir - Dumbarton @ 2.80 1-0 Four winners this week including East Stirling at a huge 9.55. Weekly Profit:7.80pts Stats Bets:25 Wins:6 Strikerate:24.00% Returns:27.05pts Profit:2.05pts Yield:8.20% New Bank:94.25pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WorkingForTheEnemy Posted November 17, 2006 Author Share Posted November 17, 2006 Re: When the Scots are away 18th- 19th November Aberdeen - St Mirren @ 5.28 Celtic - Inverness @ 13.00 Kilmarnock - Falkirk @ 3.75 Partick - Hamilton @ 2.75 Ross County - Clyde @ 2.75 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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