GaF Posted October 5, 2006 Share Posted October 5, 2006 "Quiz" in this months Poker Player - if you email them your answer, then the best answer gets a Chip Set - but post your thoughts here anyway ;) The thoughts of Mark Vos are published in next months issue :ok Can you outplay Chris Ferguson? The following hand is from Mark Vos, winner of the 2006 WSOP $2000 Hold'em event. The Situation Bellagio Cup: WSOP Main Event $10,000 Buy in Day 2, Level 4: blinds 400/800 Your Chips: 95,000 I was in the small blind with K-J suited. It was folded to Chris Ferguson on the button who had about 60k to start the hand. He raised it to 3,000. I made it 8,000 to go. He thought for a little bit and called. We had both been playing fairly tight up to this point. The flop came A-J-10. I bet out 12,000, he thought for a little bit and called. The turn then came a J. I lead (sic) out for 15,000 and he quickly called. The river came a blank. I checked, he bet 20,000, leaving just a few chips in his stack. What do you do and why? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
morlspin Posted October 5, 2006 Share Posted October 5, 2006 Re: Your Call Ill be brave and answer..... Id re-raise him all in and see what he had, leaving you with around 60k if you lose....end of the day your on around 65k if you fold anyway Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted October 5, 2006 Author Share Posted October 5, 2006 Re: Your Call Ill be brave and answer..... Id re-raise him all in and see what he had, leaving you with around 60k if you lose....end of the day your on around 65k if you fold anyway If you reraise all in and lose then you are on $35k. It's $20,000 into a pot of $100,400 to call (I think!!! :unsure). Chris ferguson has about $10,000 left in his stack.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dodger Posted October 5, 2006 Share Posted October 5, 2006 Re: Your Call With 90,000 already in the pot wouldn't he already be pot committed? Another 20,000 will leave him with 40,000 if he loses and he clearly liked his Jacks and nothing has added to any possible danger...just HAS to call, a fold, surely, is not an option. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
morlspin Posted October 5, 2006 Share Posted October 5, 2006 Re: Your Call didnt do my math.....but id still re-raise him all in, if he was fishing and missed, he will fold, if he has a hand, then at least you will see what it is and can re-build with your remaining chips Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burnley Joe Posted October 5, 2006 Share Posted October 5, 2006 Re: Your Call Chris has raised 4 times the BB on the button, if hes been playing tight its unlikley hes trying to steal especially as the SB has 30K more than he has. I would fold, Chris has put in 55K and only has 5k left and might be hoping for a call. Mark he has already bet a third of his his chip (35,000), but will still have 60k . But why did Chris not check on the river if he was worried about losing 2/3 of his stack, as he would have still had 25K left. I put Chris on K Q and reckon hes thinking that Mark has two pair or possible set Also there is 90, 800K in the pot (including BB), but Mark has only put in 35 so don`t really see him as pot commited (1/3) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted October 5, 2006 Author Share Posted October 5, 2006 Re: Your Call I think i have to see his cards here - I'm getting 5-1, have a decent hand and there are enough hands I could put him on that I'm beating that it's worth calling. Obvious scare holding for him is KQ for the str8. Other dangerous hands are a paired J (FH) or AA. He COULD have any of them. I could also see him making the bet on the end with an unpaired (lower kicker) J. With a single A I imagine he calls and takes a showdown, so not sure I put him on this. Why has he left himself $10,000 chips? A chance to get away from the hand with his tourney life? (he would still have an M of over 8). Of course he knows you can see that - so does he want the call or not? No idea!!! Do I have fold equity (is he leaving himself his tourney life?) - if so do I call or reraise him all in? Don't know - surely if he calls I am beat, but would he fold a better hand than me? unlikely - so a flat call I think!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted October 5, 2006 Author Share Posted October 5, 2006 Re: Your Call If you reraise all in and lose then you are on $35k. It's $20,000 into a pot of $100,400 to call (I think!!! :unsure). Chris ferguson has about $10,000 left in his stack.... Actually - Chris has put 60,000 in, Mark has put 40,000 in - so CF is all but on 1 chip - reraise him all in - take the scalp ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burnley Joe Posted October 5, 2006 Share Posted October 5, 2006 Re: Your Call I make it 35K and 55K I was in the small blind with K-J suited. It was folded to Chris Ferguson on the button who had about 60k to start the hand. He raised it to 3,000. I made it 8,000 to go. He thought for a little bit and called. We had both been playing fairly tight up to this point. The flop came A-J-10. I bet out 12,000, he thought for a little bit and called. The turn then came a J. I lead (sic) out for 15,000 and he quickly called. The river came a blank. I checked, he bet 20,000, leaving just a few chips in his stack. What do you do and why? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted October 5, 2006 Author Share Posted October 5, 2006 Re: Your Call I make it 35K and 55K $8k pre flop, $12k post flop, $15k on the turn - spot on mate :ok So Fergusson has $5000 left. Your decision is a $20k call into a $90,800 pot..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burnley Joe Posted October 5, 2006 Share Posted October 5, 2006 Re: Your Call Blx, just read the answer is not gonna be until next month, thats why dont like these cos i wonna know the answer, good fun though, and you learn how people look at different situations. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted October 5, 2006 Author Share Posted October 5, 2006 Re: Your Call Chris has raised 4 times the BB on the button' date=' if hes been playing tight its unlikley hes trying to steal especially as the SB has 30K more than he has.[/quote'] So two key questions here? What basket of hands would he raise with on the button when playing tight? If he's playing tight and he knows his opponents know this, it's an opportunity to use that table image? I'd say he could be raising with anything...... but even if it is KK or QQ or AK or AQ for example I have him beat... Why has he left $5000 in his stack? (with M of 4) Is it enough that he could be preserving his tournament life if reraised and he gets away from it? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
morlspin Posted October 5, 2006 Share Posted October 5, 2006 Re: Your Call so was my original workings out correct (ish) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted October 5, 2006 Author Share Posted October 5, 2006 Re: Your Call so was my original workings out correct (ish) All in still leaves Mark on $35k ($95k minus $60k) - so I think your maths was as bad as mine :tongue2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burnley Joe Posted October 5, 2006 Share Posted October 5, 2006 Re: Your Call I reckon he wants to be reraised, if he says all in I reckon Mark would definatly put him on the straight. 5k, is that enough to save his torny when BB is 800? And the rest are well ahead, (I know chip and a chair), but also Mark will raise him every time it comes round to BB, as it only gonna cost another 4200, and he will have about 180K in chips (I would). Also he did not raise when on the button that much really, if he had A K, A Q or higher I reckon he would have gone a bit bigger like Mark did, to say 5K Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
morlspin Posted October 5, 2006 Share Posted October 5, 2006 Re: Your Call and people wonder why i dont play pot odds lmao Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msaban Posted October 5, 2006 Share Posted October 5, 2006 Re: Your Call I'd reraise, I reckon he's got Q9 suited, hence the thinking time,looking for the straight, the overbet at the end is an attempt to take the pot with not actually having anything, giving him the chance to still fold and stay in the game if reraised. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
68allin Posted October 5, 2006 Share Posted October 5, 2006 Re: Your Call Id flat call as its day two, chances are hes got u beat most likely aa or the straight, but if u have got him beat theres no major benefit of gaining the extra 5k and putting him out at this point in comp, where as if u lose the hand the 5k u save is quite a decent amount to have in relation to the blinds. i see it as 5k lost here is alot more in value than 5k won. where as if it was final table with the blinds and stack sizes in ratio then u would have too push and try to knock him out increasing your chances of a bigger payout! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted October 5, 2006 Author Share Posted October 5, 2006 Re: Your Call Have added a poll - no rush to vote though - feel free to wait, listen to the arguments and vote when you have come to a firm decision :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msaban Posted October 5, 2006 Share Posted October 5, 2006 Re: Your Call Ive just written the sequence of events out, there are so many possibilities of what Chris has got here, so to try and scratch some of them of the list. As - would he have just flat called the raise to 8K ?, if he wanted to extract more out of Mark, why raise 4BB in the first place AJ - why quickly call the 15K raise, a player like Chris in my opion would ponder for a while KQ - possible, but then why call the AJ so quick 10s - gives a full house, this is a strong possible, with the intial raise, the cautious calls pre and post flop and quick call on turn Q9 - good stealing hand, would be cautious if reraised, straight possibilities after flop which would probably keep him in, and raise on river to last chance steal at pot. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robilaruk Posted October 5, 2006 Share Posted October 5, 2006 Re: Your Call I would put Chris on 10 10 so it has to be a fold Damo Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted October 5, 2006 Author Share Posted October 5, 2006 Re: Your Call I would put Chris on 10 10 so it has to be a fold Damo You would only consider that he could be on the one hand? :unsure Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robilaruk Posted October 5, 2006 Share Posted October 5, 2006 Re: Your Call no, I think he might also have AA KK Q9 AJ 72 83 93 67 24 56 84 JQ K9 J10.......... you want to know why don't you - ok :) dangerous flop that could hit loads of hands that the 'villian' might re-raise with and the trips are vulnerable - hence the think - do I call, raise or fold Chris is perfectly aware of the chance of villian having a drawing hand and is in no rush to chase someone out of the pot that might be stealing - he also knows that he could have already lost, but probably puts the villian on a drawing hand with top pair the quick call on turn suggests he now believes that he is ahead, and again is happt jusy to call with position, hoping that villian is still chasing or has the check on the end confirms he is ahead, so he bets an amount that looks like a steal hoping to get the villian to call with top 2 pair How do I make this assumption - a hand he played at the WSOP 04 or 05 against 'Bad Girl' Pham - Chris raised with Aces and pham reriased with AQ so he just called, the flop was something like A J x, pham bet out, chris thought for a while and just called, and I think Lederer was commentating and the other commentator was suprised their was no reraise, and lederer said Chris is aware of the flop and is in no rush to get his chips in the middle, he 'is not worried about the straight draw' (or something very similar) - IIRC Pham then shoved the turn and Chris quietly called Plus add this to his play in the British Poker Open in 05, where he played conservatively with hands like A 10 that missed flops and he folded to bets with - Chris is a master of game theory and just lets others give their chips to him:lol Just my thoughts Does that help? Damo You would only consider that he could be on the one hand? :unsure Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted October 5, 2006 Author Share Posted October 5, 2006 Re: Your Call Does that help? Yes - nice post :ok My "probe" worked :tongue2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ubermonkey1 Posted October 5, 2006 Share Posted October 5, 2006 Re: Your Call i reckon jesus is on a 10 so i would push. mind u theres always a chance hes got aj:tongue2 . i dont think he would 4x raise on the button with no other callers holding aces. chances are all mid hands would fold immediately so no real value in that ,it looks more like a stealing raise with a mid hand to me ,a 10 fits the bill (so does aj tho). i reckon if he had 10s he would have pushed a bit more pre flop to see if you really meant it ,probably would have reraised. if he had kq i dont reckon he would have flat called on the flop ,i think he would have raised with the nuts to build the pot a bit. if he is on a 10 then he would have to call all in with that much in the pot,so i would try to get him out .if he won the hand you would still have a decent stack vs the blinds ,so in for a penny in for a pound:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted October 24, 2006 Author Share Posted October 24, 2006 Re: Your Call The Answer You're facing a river bet and you need to work out what Chris has, remembering ahe's a tight, solid player. Pre-Flop: Chris open-raised the button, which he could make with a vast range of hands, not all strong. But then he called my pre-flop re-raise, which definitely narrows his hand range substantially - he probably needs at least A-10 suited or A-J and possibly any pair trying to flop a set. There's also a chance that he has biggish suited connectors. The flop came all high cards, which in this kind of pot would likely hit both of us.I led out for 12,000, a substantial bet, and he called. This narrows his hand range down further. He would definitely get rid of pairs undser 9-9, Q-Q anf K-K. He would almost certainly get rid of suited connectors besides J-10 and K-Q. So this leaves us with a probable range being A-10, A-J, A-Q, A-K, J-10, K-Q, J-J, 10-10, J-J or A-A. This range doesn't look good for me. Turn: I fired out another 15,000 and he rapidly called. Now here's where the most information is given. He'd probably fold A-10 and A-Q here, and J-J is no longer possible. He'd be hesitant about calling with A-K or K-Q, trying to decide whether to protect or maintain the slow play. The hands that make sense for a quick confident call here are A-A, 10-10 and A-J. River: The river card was a blank; I checked and he put in 20,000. He would certainly not do this with A-K, and all hands that he could have are ahead of me, so the correct play must be to fold. In a later interview Chris revealed that he did in fact have A-A. Ironically, in the very next hand two players showed A spades! The hand was declared dead. Unfortunately this was not noticed earlier, making it a bit easier for Chris to make his set! Well none of us got it right!! I reckon Damo was the closest..... (with 10-10 for a FH) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
68allin Posted October 24, 2006 Share Posted October 24, 2006 Re: Your Call Id flat call as its day two, chances are hes got u beat most likely aa or the straight, but if u have got him beat theres no major benefit of gaining the extra 5k and putting him out at this point in comp, where as if u lose the hand the 5k u save is quite a decent amount to have in relation to the blinds. i see it as 5k lost here is alot more in value than 5k won. where as if it was final table with the blinds and stack sizes in ratio then u would have too push and try to knock him out increasing your chances of a bigger payout! Didnt know how to quote so just copied the text! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jammiedodger1 Posted October 24, 2006 Share Posted October 24, 2006 Re: Your Call I'd call mainly because i want to see what he has got even though i would know in my head all i have is JJ i would learn more and use it to my advantage by seeing what he has. What do i know i don't win much anyway Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted October 24, 2006 Author Share Posted October 24, 2006 Re: Your Call Didnt know how to quote so just copied the text! Hmmm . .. . Well done for putting him on the right hand, terrible for not acting on it :tongue2 Well done mate.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
68allin Posted October 25, 2006 Share Posted October 25, 2006 Re: Your Call point noted :ok story of my game guess the right hand and fail to act or guess totally wrong hand and commit chip suicide! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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