Rob the I ty Posted May 21, 2007 Share Posted May 21, 2007 Re: Champions League Winner 2006/7 True they usually do hit a wall around the hour mark, but Milan are well rested for this game. If Liverpool play like they did vs Barca it will be very tough for Milan but I expect Milan to control the midfield and grab a 1-0 or 2-0 win. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mihai006 Posted May 21, 2007 Share Posted May 21, 2007 Re: Champions League Winner 2006/7 Milan will won this year, maybe at penalties also. Liverpool is a beautiful team, but not so strong to win 2 time in 3 years... Milan is very strong, see the games with Manchester, and I suppose the luck will be this time on his side :) Look on my site for others daily picks, is free :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carl Posted May 21, 2007 Share Posted May 21, 2007 Re: Champions League Winner 2006/7 Can Liverpool do 'The Italian Job'? The game will be fought and lost in midfield and out of the 4 remaining clubs that were left at the semi-final position AC-Milan were playing the better football knocking out treble hunting Manchester United. Liverpool need to put the brakes on Gattuso and Kaka if they are to have any hope in re-living the dream of 2005. A second string AC Milan side lost 3-2 at home to Udinese on Saturday when the whole first team took a rest ahead of Wednesday's game. He did not field a single player who is expected to be in the starting line-up in Athens on Wednesday, sadly I don't think the Italians will 'lose' this final again and will make Liverpool pay for that night in Istanbul. 4-2 To AC MilanBet 10pts on Over 2.5 goals @ 2.40 with Bet365 & 5pts on Kaka to Score First @ 8.00 paddypower, Bet365 etc Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nade Posted May 21, 2007 Share Posted May 21, 2007 Re: Champions League Winner 2006/7 Inter Milan?... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carl Posted May 21, 2007 Share Posted May 21, 2007 Re: Champions League Winner 2006/7 Inter Milan?... :$ way too much to drink last night:\ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gerrie26681 Posted May 21, 2007 Share Posted May 21, 2007 Re: Champions League Winner 2006/7 Liverpool will win the Champions LEague in my opinion. A lot of people believe that Liverpool are a poor side, I dont quite know why. I am a Liverpool supporter and I am not blind to their failings. They have an excellent shot stopper in Reina, a very very solid back four, and a very strong midfield. It is upfront they are weak, Crouch is very poor in my opinion. I hope Kuyt and Bellamy start upfront on Wednesday. Milan are an old team, Nesta is world class no doubt but I have question marks over both fullbacks, Oddo and Jankulovski. Midfield is Milan's massive strenght. Kaka, Gattuso, Pirlo, Seedorf and Ambrosini. I hope that Gilardino starts ahead of Inzaghi. Benitez is a tactical genius and he will have the troops well preped for this match. Mascherano will not afford Kaka the room and space that Fergie allowed. Mascherano is also 5times the player Carrick is. Liverpool are much much better equipped to beat Milan that Man Utd were. At odds to win the cup of 2.42 available I will be backing Liverpool on Wednesday. The team is better than 2005, better organised, more belief. Not over confidence just believe that Liverpool can take Milan. So long as they settle quickly in the first 15mins and dont concede I think we'll be celebrating come 10pm!!! Fingers crossed! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fenlandtiger Posted May 22, 2007 Share Posted May 22, 2007 Re: Champions League Winner 2006/7 I can't make a convincing case on the HW/AW/D. I've seen Liverpool contain teams very well this season but also seen Milan pick apart Man Utd in the semi's (i've not watched any of Milan's other games though I hear they've not been too special of late). Which for me, makes the game pretty unpredictable pre-match. If Liverpool can cope with Kaka, Gatusso and Pirlo, and have their long and medium range sharp shooters on good shooting form, I think they have a decent chance. Also if they may pull a Bellamy and Crouch/Kuyt combo off, another avenue for scoring for them. On the other hand, Milan scoring against Man Utd is still in my head, and Kaka in my view is a world talent on a par with Ronaldo.:unsure I think the Liverpool defence may have to play out of their skins to cope. Liverpool could benefit from containing Gatusso as well.. If they contain the man who seems to be the standard bearer for Milan, then the match is made that little bit more winnable for Liverpool. Also I think he may be vulnerable to bookings as he seems so fired up in these games, reminiscent of Maradona in 94. Former Liverpool European cup winning defender and BBC pundit Alan Hansen, on the BBC website, ends his Champions league piece with a classic piece of football bravado. "Liverpool are going to win the Champions League final - I am absolutely 100% confident of that." http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/football/eng_prem/6676849.stm I don't think many punters here would agree with that! Imagine the odds you could get on Milan if Bookies were so 100% sure as Mr Hansen that Liverpool would win. I wish Alan Hansen was my bookie on Wednesday! :) My own view is that Milan are probably favourites on merit, and therefore might be expected to win this game. But for me this is a one off, and I prefer to wait and see how the game unfolds on the night. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonesy Knows Posted May 22, 2007 Share Posted May 22, 2007 Re: Champions League Winner 2006/7 Liverpool v AC Milan - Champions League Final 23 May 2007 Athens A lot to live up to in this game after the best final ever 2 years ago. You can really see this game going all the way again to penalties... I think the important factor here is going to be the attitude of both teams, certainly this time around Liverpool won't make the fatal mistake like they did last time around and not start with a holding midfielder! as Kaka destroyed us in the first half. Liverpool will utilise Mascherano on Kaka and stop him orchestrating the AC Milan attack in this game. Though my fears here are that Liverpool will put Gerrard again wide on the right which is only making Milan's job easier in nulifying him as they will starve his supply chain and render him ineffective. The problem in that is that I fear Benitez will only see this too late in the game and then decide to switch him! Liverpool need to get the best out of Gerrard from the 1st whistle and my ideal role for him would be in the hole between attack and midfield and give him a licence to roam! This would then see Gattuso being dragged all over the place and not being able to provide the cover for Kaka, Milan's match winner! Liverpool have the capabilities here to stop Milan in playing their freeflowing football that destroyed Man Utd, however much will depend on where Gerrard is deployed as this will map the tactics for both teams in the game! Gerrard is the best midfield player in the world at the moment - nobody has the abilities of Gerrard, all in their locker like him, you can argue all you like about this, but it is plain to see from attacking to defending to his distribution to his passion he has it all and he I think is the catalyst for the outcome of this game... I am not going to make a prediction here on who will win - I just want to see another great final and all the fans and authorities to behave themselves, if that is not too much to ask... :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonesy Knows Posted May 22, 2007 Share Posted May 22, 2007 Re: Champions League Winner 2006/7 "Ooops, almost forgot - COME ON YOU REDS"! :hope :hope :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonesy Knows Posted May 22, 2007 Share Posted May 22, 2007 Re: Champions League Winner 2006/7 "Oh what the hell" !!! I gotta have a little interest bet as odds are unbelievable! Xabi Alonso - 1st Goal Scorer - 25/1 Ladbrokes (on coupon in their shops!) I mean 25/1 !!! are they mad? your talking about a player who can score goals from his defending half (aka Luton & Newcastle games) P.s. - that was my 500th post! let's hope it's a lucky one :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nastro 1888 Posted May 22, 2007 Share Posted May 22, 2007 Re: Champions League Winner 2006/7 draw - milan @ 9/2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nortico Posted May 22, 2007 Share Posted May 22, 2007 CHL Final : Milan - Liverpool Milan - Liverpool = 1 (my guess) The match of this year !! To the question of who is winning, my bet is on Milan. Their form in the last CHL-matches is very good, and if we look at the way they played in their last match against United. I would say Milan defenitely. And now when we look at the odds at the bookies, then i would say : 2.36 hos betfair.com 2.35 hos expekt.com 2.37 hos bet365.com 2.25 hos sportingbet.com 2.00 hos bwin.com 2.40 hos nordicbet.com 2.35 hos pokersaints.com 2.25 hos tipstjenesten 2.35 hos Unibet.com What do they think of at Bwin.com ???? They must really be afraid of loosing lot of money on wednesday. My recommendation is to put an eye on betfair.com. the odds their is rising more and more.. Good match ! :-) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
liverpoolfan Posted May 22, 2007 Share Posted May 22, 2007 Re: Champions League Winner 2006/7 :clap:clap:clap:clap:clap:clap:clap:clap:clap:clap:clap:clap:clap:clap:clap:clap:clap:clap:clap:clap:clap:clap:clap:clap liverpool to win ,draw after 90 mins extra time goal .........126mins :clap:clap:clap:clap:clap:clap:clap:clap:clap:clap:clap:clap:clap:clap:clap:clap:clap:clap:clap:clap:clap:clap:clap:clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drawback05 Posted May 22, 2007 Share Posted May 22, 2007 Re: Champions League Winner 2006/7 have read through some of the above and they are the usual mix of sense and nonsense. two points i would argue against are the following 1. Draw - Milan double bet Milan are an ageing side and will need to be out of the blocks early as they will tire in the second half. I hope Milan score early because that should bring the negative Liverpool side (if you are a Liverpool fan please put in the words 'tactically astute' to replace negative there !!) out of their shell. Milan - Draw would be more value 2. Steven Gerrard is the best midfielder in the world Please spare me this unadulterated drivel, as it is patently untrue. I haven't him seen him drive his team to anything in the last few seasons (I believe that Dietmar Hamann won them this tournament 2 years ago) Gerrard is over-rated and in fact over-the-top in his tackling too, a bad side I don't admire. Picking a world best 11 I would not be picking Steven Gerrard as my first choice midfielder, with at least 2 of Milan's players ahead of him in my opinion. now the verdict. Liverpool are over-priced at 6/5 to win the trophy as they have the best CL manager by miles. Benitez has out-thought both Barcelona and Chelsea this season, and knows Milan's game plan. Just because of how they play I want the flair of Milan to triumph with goals from Kaka and Seedorf, but if I had to have a bet with all my bank account, Liverpool to lift the trophy is a value bet. In reality I may just watch as this really is going to be very close, and not one to have your life savings on. Milan 2-1 Liverpool Kaka, Seedorf, Crouch mugs bet Kuyt to score as he hasn't scored in Europe all season and the bookies won't offer bigger than 2/1 I'd say. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Youssef Posted May 22, 2007 Share Posted May 22, 2007 Re: Champions League Winner 2006/7 Crouch is very poor in my opinion. I hope Kuyt and Bellamy start upfront on Wednesday. You must be joking! Crouch is poor, but he's a good header. Bellamy has been poor everywhere of late. I think Crouchy will have a decent chance of scoring with his head if the crosses were done with enough precision. In fact, I'm counting on him to score in the final. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted May 22, 2007 Share Posted May 22, 2007 Re: Champions League Winner 2006/7 Steven Gerrard is the best midfielder in the world Please spare me this unadulterated drivel, as it is patently untrue. I haven't him seen him drive his team to anything in the last few seasons I wholeheartedly disagree with that statement. I dont believe Liverpool would have won the Champions League or last years FA Cup Final without Gerrard on the pitch. I will agree with you that he gets away with murder with some of his tackles though but thats a debate for another day. The best midfielder in the country for me but its all about opinions I suppose! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevshat Posted May 22, 2007 Share Posted May 22, 2007 Re: Champions League Winner 2006/7 2. Steven Gerrard is the best midfielder in the world Please spare me this unadulterated drivel' date= as it is patently untrue. I haven't him seen him drive his team to anything in the last few seasons (I believe that Dietmar Hamann won them this tournament 2 years ago) How in gods name did you work that out :unsure . Had it not been for Gerrard's injury time 3rd against Olympiakos, Liverpool wouldn't have gone beyond the group stage and it was Gerrard who started the revival with the header to score the 1st in the final and of course Gerrard who was fouled on one of his driving runs into the box for the penalty of which the equaliser came from. If Dietmar Hamann won them that tournament so did I :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidmphill Posted May 22, 2007 Author Share Posted May 22, 2007 Re: Champions League Winner 2006/7 I think someones trying to wind things up. There's no doubting Gerrards ability to change a match, when he's on song there aren't many who can match him on the pitch. He's that influential you'd build your side around him. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drawback05 Posted May 22, 2007 Share Posted May 22, 2007 Re: Champions League Winner 2006/7 oo-er, apologies. i was not trying to wind anyone up but genuinely do not believe that Gerrard is THE BEST MIDFIELDER IN THE WORLD as was stated previously. Allow me to admit that I am clearly in a minority here, and say again it was not an intended wind-up. I will say this though. I will eat a large dose of humble pie if Stevie G proves a match-winner tomorrow night. In my small defence, seeing as people have thrown up some of his higher points I offer this slight retort. 90th minute England 1-1 France. The best player in the world would not have done what happened next. Please take it easy on me now with the replies - I'm only small ! I will come back with my bib tucked in tomorrow if I'm wrong. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevshat Posted May 22, 2007 Share Posted May 22, 2007 Re: Champions League Winner 2006/7 oo-er, apologies. i was not trying to wind anyone up but genuinely do not believe that Gerrard is THE BEST MIDFIELDER IN THE WORLD as was stated previously. Allow me to admit that I am clearly in a minority here, and say again it was not an intended wind-up. I will say this though. I will eat a large dose of humble pie if Stevie G proves a match-winner tomorrow night. In my small defence, seeing as people have thrown up some of his higher points I offer this slight retort. 90th minute England 1-1 France. The best player in the world would not have done what happened next. Please take it easy on me now with the replies - I'm only small ! I will come back with my bib tucked in tomorrow if I'm wrong. I think it's fair to say the good things he done in games far outweigh mistakes he's made. I don't necessarily think he's the best midfielder in the world either as it goes but he's in the top 3 without a doubt. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fenlandtiger Posted May 22, 2007 Share Posted May 22, 2007 Re: Champions League Winner 2006/7 A link to Mark Lawrenson's view of the game.. http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/football/europe/6679235.stm Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Youssef Posted May 23, 2007 Share Posted May 23, 2007 Re: Champions League Winner 2006/7 No links to click on... my preview is right on this forum :lol Furthermore, I'm not tipping anything (so as not to upset anyone). You make your own minds. Here goes: Referee Herbert Fandel (Germany) who’s in charge of tonight’s CL final will be faced with different emotions from both sides fans. He was in charge last for the Reds when they went 0-1 down to Barca at home in this campaign’s round of 16. Previously, he officiated 2 other games for them, one last season against Chelsea in the Bridge (ended 0-0) and the other 4 seasons ago when they lost 0-2 to Valencia. This means that Liverpool have yet to score when Mr Fandel in at the center of the field. On contrary, this gentleman was in charge in 5 games for Milan, the latest of which was the group stage home game vs. Anderlecht in which Milan came on top with a 4-1 scoreline. Earlier he was the ref in a 1-0 home win over Man Utd 2 seasons ago, a 1-0 victory over Shakhtar the year before, and yet another 1-0 win over Club Brugge in 2003. His first game officiating a game involving Milan was in 2002 and they won 2-0 over Hapoel tel Aviv. The oppointment of Fandel to officiate this game sent the Italian fans on an overwhelming optimistic wave, as we all know the Italians believe much in omens, so I had to defuse this one before it spread further. Whom did Milan play under Fandel? Man U? We all know Man U doesn’t know how to play Italian teams, and especially Milan. They don’t even play well in Europe to begin with. Shakhtar? That was 2 seasons ago, when Shakhtar didn’t have any experience in Europe. Anderlecht & Club Brugge? Both Belgian clubs are mediocre teams at best. Hapoel? Come on… do I even need to comment on this one? Liverpool under him lost to Barca.. and they qualified on aggregate. They drew away to Chelsea, and qualified on aggregate. The only time they got knocked out was when they met with Valencia, and they even lost at home as well, so it must’ve had nothing to do with him! The two teams have met only once before, and it was in 2005 CL final. Almost every soccer fan remembers Milan were 3-0 up at half time and were swept off the filed in the brackets of 6 minutes to find themselves playing a penalty shoot out which they lost. Domestically, Liverpool finished 3rd in EPL, and Milan is likely to finish 4th in Serie A. 20-8-10 is Liverpool’s record in EPL, while Milan’s in Serie A is 19-12-6 with 1 game remaining. Liverpool scored 57 goals and conceded 27, while Milan scored 55 and conceded 31. Liverpool averages a goal scored every 60 minutes, and a goal conceded every 127 minutes, while Milan score every 58 minutes in average and concede every 95 minutes. The stats are so close, but I have to point out that EPL is a bit more competitive than Serie A. Now let’s see how they fare in this CL campaign in particular: Liverpool would stand atop on the overall hypothetical table with 8 wins, 1 draw & 3 losses, having scored 18 and conceded 8, and managing 7 clean sheets from 12 games. They failed to score on 3 occasions (25%) Milan would stand 4th on that table, managing a 6-3-3 record, scoring 18 and conceding 9, and have also managed 7 clean sheets. The have failed to score on 4 occasions (33%) Even the teams they had to meet on their way to Athens seem closely matched, with Liverpool disposing of Chelsea in the semi-final, and Milan overcoming Man Utd. Earlier, Liverpool topped their group of Bordeaux, PSV & Galatsaray, then knocked out Barca & PSV (again), while Milan topped their group of AEK, Lille & Anderlecht, then knocked out Celtic & Bayern, and while Milan had a “cesarian†laboured win over Celtin in the extra time after drawing goalless on both legs, Liverpool took it a step further against Chelsea and had to reach a penalty shoot out to reach this final. Everything seems so equal so far that one can hardly separate the two. In fact, based on the above I would suspect the draw should be priced at evens, with either party winning priced at around 3.00 We will need to “guess†how both coaches will approach this game if we are to place a bet on a different outcome (other than the draw in the original 90 minutes) Both managers always seem to force their own style and pace on the games of their respective teams. But while Ancellotti plays almost always with the same plan, and only switches players roles within the same overall dynamics, Benitez seems to put a different plan for each game, depending on the opponents style of play. (Kind of, reacting rather than initiating the action). So, in short, Benitez IMHO is more flexible. Milan plays a 4-5-1 formation. If they are to attack they play Ambrosini as their “pivot†with Gattuso as the midfield defender who’s main role is to stop opponents from building their attacks. Pirlo becomes the play maker, with Kaka & Seedorf forming the base of a striking triangle, with Inzaghi (or Giladino) at the top of the triangle. The main action here is for Pirlo to send long passes to Kaka, whose pace and talent allow him to elude his marker. Kaka also gets the freedom to fall back leaving Seedorf alone in what looks like a 4-4-1-1 formation for Kaka to collect the ball and dribble his way forward. If Milan should dfend, however, Pirlo takes over Ambrosini’s role as the centre pivot, while the latter marks the opponents play maker, and Gattuso also turns into a marker, with Seedorf falling back in what would look like a 4-3-1-2 formation, with Kaka playing alongside Inzaghi. Benitez –as I said- has a different plot for each game. He played Barca with the X-mas tree formation (4-3-2-1) with Kuyt as the lone striker. When he turned into an attacking mode, Bellamy joined Kuyt upfront, while Gerrad went to the right side. Against Chelsea, however, he played a classic 4-4-2 formation, which gave Gerrad more of the defending load. The flanks (Pennant on the right, and Riise/Zenden on the left) would send crosses, and in this case Peter Crouch is likely to be alongside Kuyt as he was against Chelsea (2nd leg) and managed to hit the bar once, and Cech stopped a certain goal on another accasion with the ball chosing to stand still between his feet. Seeing as to how Liverpool (overall) look the younger team, Milan will have to attack at 1st, in an attempt to take an early lead. Liverpool would be expected to defend first, making sure they maintain a clean sheet, and while the Milan will start to fall back and slow down, Liverpool will try to take the initiative from that point and come forward, but not forgetting to keep it tight at the back, lest they get hit by a speedy counter attack. 2 years ago Hamann did the trick as he came on from the bench. He’s no longer a Liverpool player, so one will have to look for some other Liverpool man-of-the match. Finnan, Carragher, Riise, Gerrad & Alonso are the ones from that final that are expected to feature on this one, with Hyypia watching from the bench this time. Kewell is injured, Baros, Cisse, Traore Luis Garcia & Smicer have also left the team. The new faces of Reina under the bar, with Agger, Mascherano, Zenden, Bellamy & Kuyt are likely to feature tonight, with Arbeloa, Gonzalez, Crouch, Fowler & Pennant available on the bench. In Milan; Dida, Nesta, Maldini, Gattuso, Pirlo, Seedorf & Kaka are the old faces, with Cafu on the bench. New faces may include influential duo Oddo & Ambrosini, with Inzaghi, Jankulovski, Favalli, Gilardino, Kaladze, Kalac, Bonera & Brocchi. The big names of Stam, Crespo, Sheva, Tomasson, Rui Costa & Serginho have all left the team. This means the Reds have improved on both their man under the bar and the defence line before him, while gained strength in their midfield and Kaka is a whole different player than he was in 2005. Kuyt, Crouch & Bellamy are obviously no match to a Cisse-Baros duo upfront, but it could be argued that Kuyt’s pace and continuous running could be the key to exhausting the older guys in Milan’s defence. Finally; It will be a farce if Milan managed to win the title. A team that should’ve been excluded/banned at the beginning of the season, re-joins threw an appeal, eventhough they HAVE BEEN found guilty of CHEATING, then they go all the way to win the trophy! Simply pathetic from a pure ethical point of view. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ksk1912 Posted May 23, 2007 Share Posted May 23, 2007 Re: Champions League Winner 2006/7 AC Milan - Liverpool On my side this game will be end over 2.5 goal. I dont no why,but in every newspapers we can see that Ac Milan is favorite.This is a little handicap for the Ac Milan and this reason gives to the reds the secret advantage....(i think this is the holy advantage) I believe that the reds scores early and this will shock the Favorites. Over 2.5 goal Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rob the I ty Posted May 23, 2007 Share Posted May 23, 2007 Re: Champions League Winner 2006/7 GK: Edge L'pool Def: Slight edge Milan. MF: Edge Milan F: Edge L'pool. Who would have tought it would only take 2 years for these teams to replay the greatest CL final ever. Milan are just about the same except their forwards are not Crespo & Sheva, but they are better at the back with the slow footed Stam gone. Liverpool are much better than they were in all phases. But will they have the same fortune they did last time, I don't think so. Liverpool outplayed Milan for 10 minutes in that game, 99 times out of 100 Milan win and that is based purely on how Milan carved up the Reds defence time and time again. I don't see Milan dominating like Istanbul but they will utilize the wings with Oddo & Jankulovski pushing up. This will eventually lead to Kaka getting more space in the middle where with anytime or space he will dismantle the Reds. Milan FT @2.40 Milan -1 @3.65 CS 2-0 Milan @10.00 Scorecast Kaka & Milan 2-0 @45.00 Small cover on L'pool to win on pk @10.00, & Milan to win on pk @10.00. Man of Match Rino Gattuso @15.00 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackcrow Posted May 23, 2007 Share Posted May 23, 2007 Champions League Winner 2006/7 Liverpool win All of a sudden, after one game, Milan are unbeatable. Don't worry that their form hasn't been anywhere near that game vs Man U. One could say that performance was a freak of nature considering the rest of their performance's during the year were at best, good, without being spectacular. Going back to that Man Utd game, in hindsight, Man U played a bad game, especially tactically. They had a few injuries in defence and they opened up far too much for Kaka to cause the damage. Do you really think that Macherano, Alonso and Gerrard will give their midfield that much freedom to dictate the play? Man U were commended by Milan as being the best football playing English team - why? Because they gave them the room to play. Milan commended them for givng them the game, laughing at the suicide tactics used by Man U which allowed them to open them up quite regularly. Any team can look good if the other team stays off them and allows them to weave and thread passes. Won't be happening in the final. Liverpool plays defence with all 11 eleven players, and gets everybody behind the ball. I think Liverpool have been underestimated how well they can play under pressure when defending, and for all the doubters, i think we will see it once again in the final. Much has been said about the Milanese attacking threats but strangely quiet about their defence, and there lies a big weakness. Aging, slow (albeit experienced) backline who hate players running at them (calling Bellamy, Kewell). Liverpool are the underdogs and not expected to win. Man U were everybody's favourites after thumping Roma, and then got thumped by Milan. Well guess what, Milan will follow the course of Man U as one game wonders. My only concern is about converting our chances which has been our biggest problem this year and why we haven't challenged for the title. Too many games were lost away from home where we dominated but didn't score. That is my main concern again. My money will be on Liverpool, not only because i support them, but because they have a very realistic chance of beating them, and at the odds they are at, there is alot of value there Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Punto Banco Posted May 23, 2007 Share Posted May 23, 2007 Re: Champions League Winner 2006/7 Liverpool win All of a sudden, after one game, Milan are unbeatable. Don't worry that their form hasn't been anywhere near that game vs Man U. One could say that performance was a freak of nature considering the rest of their performance's during the year were at best, good, without being spectacular. Going back to that Man Utd game, in hindsight, Man U played a bad game, especially tactically. They had a few injuries in defence and they opened up far too much for Kaka to cause the damage. Do you really think that Macherano, Alonso and Gerrard will give their midfield that much freedom to dictate the play? Man U were commended by Milan as being the best football playing English team - why? Because they gave them the room to play. Milan commended them for givng them the game, laughing at the suicide tactics used by Man U which allowed them to open them up quite regularly. Any team can look good if the other team stays off them and allows them to weave and thread passes. Won't be happening in the final. Liverpool plays defence with all 11 eleven players, and gets everybody behind the ball. I think Liverpool have been underestimated how well they can play under pressure when defending, and for all the doubters, i think we will see it once again in the final. Much has been said about the Milanese attacking threats but strangely quiet about their defence, and there lies a big weakness. Aging, slow (albeit experienced) backline who hate players running at them (calling Bellamy, Kewell). Liverpool are the underdogs and not expected to win. Man U were everybody's favourites after thumping Roma, and then got thumped by Milan. Well guess what, Milan will follow the course of Man U as one game wonders. My only concern is about converting our chances which has been our biggest problem this year and why we haven't challenged for the title. Too many games were lost away from home where we dominated but didn't score. That is my main concern again. My money will be on Liverpool, not only because i support them, but because they have a very realistic chance of beating them, and at the odds they are at, there is alot of value there Completely agree with you especially with our main problem being converting chances... specifically I think Kuyt has hit the bars more than any top league player of recent times... just seems like evry time I see him he his heading the ball right into the crossbar... ... I'll have a small bet on the 2 win the CL @ 2.25 and perhaps watch 4 any live opportunities (tho there rnt usually any)... gl all anyways... ... I just wish I could be there sporting red singing "You'll never walk alone"... GL boys... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paok Posted May 23, 2007 Share Posted May 23, 2007 Re: Champions League Winner 2006/7 Hi Guys from the rainy Greece!I will bet Over 2.5 goals...Big game...big players....come on guys...Over 2.5 goals is possible!!! First player to score:Paolo Maldini!!!!!! small stake GL all...Hope to watch a good final! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rebel_penguin Posted May 23, 2007 Share Posted May 23, 2007 Re: Champions League Winner 2006/7 Milan – Liverpool: OVER 2½ (odds 2,50 - Unibet.com) I agree with ksk1912 and popay. There is a good chance this game will go over. Analysis: We all know that both Milan and Liverpool can play great defence, but the true value of this bet lies in the odds. For this odds to be right only 36% of their games are going to go OVER 2½ and I just don’t see that. Let’s look at the stats (source: http://www.livegoals.com ) Average goals scored in Champions League playoff games: 2007: 2,50 goals per game 2006: 1,97 goals per game The average goals are considerably higher than last year, showing that the playoff games of 2007 are not as defensive as one might think. Furthermore, because of the low scoring games last year, we are getting better value on the OVER this year. Over / under in this years CL playoff games: Liverpool 2 OVER / 4 UNDER Milan 3 OVER / 3 UNDER All though these stats point to the under, we would still make a profit on the current odds of 2,50 by playing the OVER. However, Liverpool’s stats are dragged down from playing the two 1-0 games against Chelsea, who might have the best defence in the world measured in goals allowed. Furthermore national playoff games in CL tend to go under, so I really think the OVER/UNDER is much of a toss up from these stats. If we look at their national leagues, 45% of Liverpool’s games have gone OVER and 46% of Milan’s games have gone OVER. Both well above the 36% mark I mentioned in the top. The only recent meeting between these two clubs ended in the memorable 3-3 final 2 years ago. The reason Liverpool was able to make that comeback was due to their tireless running and constant pressure on the ball. It is the same type of pressure that has allowed Liverpool to advance to the finals this year. I fully expect Liverpool to come firing out at kick-off, because they know this is how they can beat Milan – and how they did it 2 years ago. The most convincing stats backing the OVER come when you look at the history of the Champions Leagues finals: 2006: Barcelona 2 – 1 Arsenal 2005: Milan 3 – 3 Liverpool 2004: Monaco 0 – 3 FC Porto 2003: Juventus 0 – 0 Milan 2002: Leverkusen 1 – 2 Real Madrid 4 of the last 5 and 7 of the last 10 finals have gone OVER 2½ Goals. These numbers are amazing. This is because the Final is different from all other games. You come to win it, and you have to score to win. The crowd demands goals and encourages teams to be offensive (kind of like the Superbowl, which is also higher scoring than regular playoff games). Try to think of it. You are getting odds 2,50 in a game that has gone OVER 70% of the times during the last decade. I think that is good value I estimate the chances of this bet going OVER to be 50% based on above analysis. Good luckJ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allthethings Posted May 23, 2007 Share Posted May 23, 2007 Re: Champions League Winner 2006/7 I disagree on the overs here. The question is, what type of game plan do you think will be attempted, and which will succeed? Milan is built for a quick strike, and if Kaka scores early teams with the tactical cojones abandon their game plan and try to equalize immediately. Liverpool is not built this way. More than that, if Milan attempt the early strike and are thwarted (which I think is the most likely scenario) the Reds will pursue their likely game plan of wearing Milan down, as Milan shows some age in the second half, which is where Liverpool usually does most of its damage. Check how many games have Liverpool 0-0 at the half, 2-0 final. I think Liverpool to lift the cup or Liverpool DNB both have tremendous value. I would think Draw HT/Liverpool FT might be a good one too. And yes, it is possible that we'll see a 2-1 type of game...but I wouldn't bet on it. If Liverpool score first, whether in the first half or second half, I think there is a very good chance of a 1-0 or 2-0 type of game. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allthethings Posted May 23, 2007 Share Posted May 23, 2007 Re: Champions League Winner 2006/7 You come to win it, and you have to score to win. You can win 1-0 or 2-0 in this game, too. You can even win in ET. The point is to win, not to stop doing what you do best. The crowd demands goals and encourages teams to be offensive (kind of like the Superbowl, which is also higher scoring than regular playoff games). The Super Bowl is higher scoring than the regular season only in that teams run up the score against opponents who abandon their game plan. Super Bowls that are competitive usually are low-scoring, while teams that get behind 21-3 tend to lose 51-10. In any case, the games are different. Note also that the Barca game had Arsenal playing defense for 60 minutes while a man short before they finally allowed a goal, and having done so, you could see the wind go out of their sails and they allowed the winner five or six minutes later. But that was a 75-minute 1-0 nail-biter. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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