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"80' minute favourite" System

pinhofap

By pinhofap
in Betting Systems & Strategy

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pinhofap

pinhofap

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I don't want to post lots of rubbish on the forum, I intended to start a lay the worst underdog thread, but since Datapunter has a thread with a similar strategy, and his thread has 2 years of data and better results than what I had last season, I won't start that. I also have a set of ratings which are proving to be rubbish, so letting go of that also. However, this system did give me very nice results last season. The system consists basically of backing the favourite team in football matches at 80 minutes when they are winning by one goal only, either home or away. There are other rules which I will post below, but the reasoning is that if they are only winning by one goal difference, it was a tight match, and they will be playing defensively, trying to hold the result. The other team is obviously trying to score an equalizer, but I do think that it is more common to see favourites getting late equalizers than underdogs. The value I see in this is that Betfair odds will reflect stats regarding late minute goals, but punters are not taking into account that the winning team will be holding the ball, last 10 minutes, not worth the risk, coach is happy with the result, etc. 95% of the games I bet live are not on TV, so as myself lots of punters are putting their money blindly on something that is just numerical reasonable but that doesn't correspond to what is happening in the field. I don't have numbers or yield for this system, on the EPL I believe there were only 3 or 4 losing games the whole season, but other leagues don't perform as well, but it was profitable last April and May. There is great value when you have games between mid table teams and the away team (favourite) is winning. To determine the favourite I will use those that have the best stats: bookmakers. I use betexplorer to compare odds so I will post a list of betfair live matches each day and the teams that are the favourite. I will not bet on some games, cup games, friendlies and national team games are a bit tricky. System rules: - Back the favourite in-play at the 80th minute when they are winning, either at home or away. - Only bet if the result is 1-0 or 2-1 (if winning away 0-1 or 1-2). Do not bet on games 2-0 (very low odds, no value) or 3-2 (balanced game with a likely late equalizer). - Don't bet if the favourite scores after the 80' minute, odds will decrease more than real value, because people will see the game as already won. - Don't bet on odds below 1.05 Staking Plan: - Back bet of 10% current bank (very high Strike Rate, very low risk of losing whole bank). - I increase my bet each time my bank increases, but don't reduce it when I lose. If I ever lose 1/3 of my bank, counting from the highest peak ever reached, I start again with this new 66% bank, updating (reducing) stakes to 10% of the new total. Full credit for this staking plan goes to Maria who uses it on her laying thread on another forum. Start Bank is 100 pts. I will post tomorrow's selections in time for the first round of the English Premier League. Football is back!:ok

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Damp Squib

Damp Squib

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Re: "80' minute favourite" System The only problem I foresee is the price your laying at. That market tends to be pretty competitive resulting in the lays being over-priced. Maybe you can take note of the price layed and later compare it to the realistic odds for that game, giving you some sort of idea what line your walking. ;)

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pinhofap

pinhofap

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Re: "80' minute favourite" System Selections for Saturday: St Mirren vs Aberdeen Sheff Utd vs Liverpool Cottbus vs Hamburg W Bremen vs Leverkusen Arsenal vs Aston Villa Djurgardens vs Kalmar Newcastle vs Wigan Rangers vs Hearts Reading vs Middlesbrough Valerenga vs Friedrikstad West Ham vs Charlton Vejle vs Kobenhavn Auxerre vs Marseille Manisaspor vs Galatasaray Olympiakos vs Xanthi Bolton vs Tottenham Start vs Lillestrom Sturm Graz vs Austria Vienna AEK vs PAOK Fenerbahce vs Rizespor I will probably not be able to record prices for every game, so when I don't do it I will simulate reasonable odds for the in-play market, comparing to similar games. I will be betting so I will record most of them I think.

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bigs

bigs

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Re: "80' minute favourite" System Pinho better watch out your live score sites:

90' St. Mirren 1 - 1 Aberdeen live_anim.gif
(0-1)
19-AUG (12:30 BST) Scotland Premier League
Game Summary
33' 0-1 Stevie Crawford [Aberdeen] ball.gif
70' 1-1 Kirk Broadfoot [st. Mirren]
they're tied @ 1-1 since 70'
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Inup

Inup

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Re: "80' minute favourite" System Don't know... but wouldn't be more profitable laying the winner on the minute 80 if there is only one goal difference? I don't have the time to look at the data, but it might be better... Your selections: Back Start 10 Points. @ 1.10 -> -10 points. Back Aberdeen 10 points @ 1.23 -> -10 points. Back Werder 10 points @ 1.13 -> +0.13 points. Back Newcastle 10 points @ 1.15-> +0.15 points. Back WHU 10 points @ 1.07 -> +0.07 points. so... today's P/L = -19.65 points. Laying instead the result would be +19.65 points!. As somebody said, late goals can **** up the system, an there are a lot of late goals around.

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pinhofap

pinhofap

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Re: "80' minute favourite" System Well today's results are bad, but in the past and I went through the leagues performances last season it is a profitable approach. I know this because I made some money last season with this strategy, but today was a bad day. I'm sticking to the method, one day means nothing in a system, you need more data to draw any conclusions.

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alun

alun

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Re: "80' minute favourite" System

Don't know... but wouldn't be more profitable laying the winner on the minute 80 if there is only one goal difference? I don't have the time to look at the data, but it might be better... Your selections: Back Start 10 Points. @ 1.10 -> -10 points. Back Aberdeen 10 points @ 1.23 -> -10 points. Back Werder 10 points @ 1.13 -> +0.13 points. Back Newcastle 10 points @ 1.15-> +0.15 points. Back WHU 10 points @ 1.07 -> +0.07 points. so... today's P/L = -19.65 points. Laying instead the result would be +19.65 points!. As somebody said, late goals can **** up the system, an there are a lot of late goals around.
Given the Paul Steele stat I've just posted, I'd have laid all of these at those prices, except for West Ham given the sending off.
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WorkingForTheEnemy

WorkingForTheEnemy

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Re: "80' minute favourite" System

Don't know... but wouldn't be more profitable laying the winner on the minute 80 if there is only one goal difference? I don't have the time to look at the data, but it might be better... Your selections: Back Start 10 Points. @ 1.10 -> -10 points. Back Aberdeen 10 points @ 1.23 -> -10 points. Back Werder 10 points @ 1.13 -> +0.13 points. Back Newcastle 10 points @ 1.15-> +0.15 points. Back WHU 10 points @ 1.07 -> +0.07 points. so... today's P/L = -19.65 points. Laying instead the result would be +19.65 points!. As somebody said, late goals can **** up the system, an there are a lot of late goals around.
Those returns are calculated wrong. 10pts @ 1.15 would return 1.5 pts, not 0.15.
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pinhofap

pinhofap

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Re: "80' minute favourite" System Ok, this had a bad start, but it's very easy to say after the events that it was obvious the teams were going to lose. I started with an idea and I will test it for some time before considering the opposite. If it turns out to be a good laying system, great! For now, going back to paper trial and testing this for some more time. Anyway, thanks for the inputs, remarks are always welcome. Results for yesterday: Aberdeen : -10pts Werder Bremen : +1.23pts Newcastle : +1.42pts West Ham : +0.66pts Start : -10pts Fenerbahce: +0.66pts P/L: -16.03pts Staked/Returned: 60/43.97pts Yield: -26.7% Bank: 83.97 pts

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pinhofap

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Re: "80' minute favourite" System Today's matches: Man Utd vs Fulham PSV vs NEC Inverness vs Celtic Follo vs Sandefjord Bielefeld vs Stuttgart Bochum vs Bayern Munchen Chelsea vs Man City Brondby vs Viborg Egaleo vs Panathinaikos Ergotelis vs Ionikos Gaziantepspor vs Trabzonspor Toulouse vs Nice Viking vs Rosenborg Wisla Krakow vs Korona Larissa vs Aris Denizlispor vs Besiktas Bordeaux vs Lyon Santos vs Vasco da Gama Barcelona vs Espanol

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bettor6

bettor6

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Re: "80' minute favourite" System I don`t think you will get an edge in this strategy. I have done research to find out probability of result depending on current scoreline in any precious moment of the game. When the favourite of the game is one goal up with 15 minutes to go, there is about 11.5% probability that he won`t get a win. The same 11.5% is when the score is level or is leading by more goals. Only in the case being a goal down this number lowers to 9.0% Average price of the favourite was about 1.65 and you will need at least 1.14 odds in 75th minute of the match to beat the statistics. With such crappy odds as you have had last weekend it would be definitely better to lay these favourites. GL though, you will need it :rollin :rollin

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