"80' minute favourite" System

[pinhofap]

I don't want to post lots of rubbish on the forum, I intended to start a lay the worst underdog thread, but since Datapunter has a thread with a similar strategy, and his thread has 2 years of data and better results than what I had last season, I won't start that. I also have a set of ratings which are proving to be rubbish, so letting go of that also. However, this system did give me very nice results last season. The system consists basically of backing the favourite team in football matches at 80 minutes when they are winning by one goal only, either home or away. There are other rules which I will post below, but the reasoning is that if they are only winning by one goal difference, it was a tight match, and they will be playing defensively, trying to hold the result. The other team is obviously trying to score an equalizer, but I do think that it is more common to see favourites getting late equalizers than underdogs. The value I see in this is that Betfair odds will reflect stats regarding late minute goals, but punters are not taking into account that the winning team will be holding the ball, last 10 minutes, not worth the risk, coach is happy with the result, etc. 95% of the games I bet live are not on TV, so as myself lots of punters are putting their money blindly on something that is just numerical reasonable but that doesn't correspond to what is happening in the field. I don't have numbers or yield for this system, on the EPL I believe there were only 3 or 4 losing games the whole season, but other leagues don't perform as well, but it was profitable last April and May. There is great value when you have games between mid table teams and the away team (favourite) is winning. To determine the favourite I will use those that have the best stats: bookmakers. I use betexplorer to compare odds so I will post a list of betfair live matches each day and the teams that are the favourite. I will not bet on some games, cup games, friendlies and national team games are a bit tricky. System rules: - Back the favourite in-play at the 80th minute when they are winning, either at home or away. - Only bet if the result is 1-0 or 2-1 (if winning away 0-1 or 1-2). Do not bet on games 2-0 (very low odds, no value) or 3-2 (balanced game with a likely late equalizer). - Don't bet if the favourite scores after the 80' minute, odds will decrease more than real value, because people will see the game as already won. - Don't bet on odds below 1.05 Staking Plan: - Back bet of 10% current bank (very high Strike Rate, very low risk of losing whole bank). - I increase my bet each time my bank increases, but don't reduce it when I lose. If I ever lose 1/3 of my bank, counting from the highest peak ever reached, I start again with this new 66% bank, updating (reducing) stakes to 10% of the new total. Full credit for this staking plan goes to Maria who uses it on her laying thread on another forum. Start Bank is 100 pts. I will post tomorrow's selections in time for the first round of the English Premier League. Football is back!:ok

[Damp Squib]

Re: "80' minute favourite" System The only problem I foresee is the price your laying at. That market tends to be pretty competitive resulting in the lays being over-priced. Maybe you can take note of the price layed and later compare it to the realistic odds for that game, giving you some sort of idea what line your walking. ;)