AFL - Round 16

[Ashtee]

Event	Collingwood v West Coast
Selection	Collingwood
Strength	7/10
Date	22/07/2006
Bookmaker/Price	Pinnacle Sports @ 2.41 (Back)
Reasoning	If Collingwood can pull out of their self-belief problems they should win this – that’s the big issue of course. They have a potent squad and should also have a couple of players return from injury. I don’t like assessing with too much of the “they are†but West Coast all too consistently struggle away. They also are in a form slump (as are Sydney), admittedly during the period Judd has been affected by injury. Kerr and perhaps Chick return, yet likely will be missing some more than valuable players such as Cox, Glass and Fletcher (although not in best form) and of course the ruck stocks now very thin with Gardiner out. Three losses since the Sydney win so I’m happy to play them while served up at this price. This price is being crunched elsewhere so could be just momentary due to Gardiner saga but I think it wise to grab it now. My price; Evens.

[TazaD]

Re: AFL - Round 16 Ah....What happens when 2 over-rated-but-now-not-so-because-people-are-starting-to-realise-that-neither-team-is-as-good-as-first-thought, play each other at the team who is in the poorest form's home??? lol!!...Sure wish I knew! :D

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL - Round 16 Last Sunday when I noticed this fixture I thought, OH MY GOD!!!, how the hell am I supposed to analyse this :unsure:unsure:unsure:gimme. Anyway, here I am, out of the blocks with a play on Collingwood - bizarre. I might have a saver bet also - WCE to win by >99.5 :lol Freo-Melb is an interesting one also. Freo looked the best motivated I've seen them for a long time - just like a real footy team. Trick is they were only playing Collingwood. Do they keep it up or do they revert to the Freo we know? I've just about got Melb as a play at 1.93 I'm thinking. Richmond I like at the price also, only I'll be watching on fitnesss of Brown who has been sluggish last couple, and Richo. Obviously they won't want too many not at their best while Bowden isn't there.

[TazaD]

Re: AFL - Round 16 Yep...I'm a little bit disappointed that Melbourne aren't slight dogs (from a $ pov), but I'm pretty sure they will win. I will try to lay Freo I think...hopefully end up getting evens, or high 1.90's for the D's.... Brisbane –15.5

Since Rd. 6.(10 weeks) Hawthorn have won just one game and lost one by less than 21 points. A couple of close games against good opposition has them over-rated here. Brisbane have won 5 of their last 9 and lost to 4 teams that were in the top 5 at the time. Brisbane won by 40 points in Rd. 7 as 5.5 point favs…admittedly Brown kicked 8 goals in that game!...but that meant that Bradshaw had a very quiet game of just 6 kicks and 1 goal. The good news for Brisbane is that in their last 5 games (all without Brown), their scoring ability hasn’t suffered at all, scoring every 1.76 forward 50 entries. Hawthorn have allowed 102+ in 9 of their last 10 games, at least 29 shots in 5 of their last 6, and allowing a shot every 1.74 entries. And I don’t think they will be able to keep up. They haven’t had more than 25 shots in a game in their last 10 and score just every 2.24 entries. Hawthorn have lost their last 5 at the ‘Gabba by an av. of 58 points!..inc. the last 2 by 48 and 41. I think the Lions can cover a soft spread here.

Port +15.5

Amazingly, Port have won their last 9 straight meetings v. St. Kilda…3 of the last 4 they have been underdogs. But this pick is more about the venue that previous results. St. Kilda have shown that away from the smallish Dome, their defense drops right off. They allow a shot every 2.09 entries, which doesn’t look so bad, but if we take out the game at Sydney where the ground is also very small, and it was a rainy night, that drops to 1.89. (Compared to 2.20 at all grounds). They’ve also shown that this ground in particular (in Launceston) doesn’t suit them, winning only 3 of 7, and losing all 4 that they’ve played here to Port Adelaide, by an av. of 37 points, and, more importantly, allowing an av. of 103 ppg. St. Kilda have won just 4 games in their last 10 by more than 15 points. Port showed on the weekend that they can stick with decent teams away from home, and despite having to travel again, I think they can at least keep this game close.

Melbourne.

Was hoping for slightly better odds than this, but I firmly believe that Melbourne will win this game. A small win away from home against a floundering Collingwood and everyone has jumped back onboard the Freo bandwagon!! The fact remains that they are an ordinary side at best. Just 2 wins in their last 5, inc. a 66 point belting at home by Geelong, and they are equal favs with 3^rd placed Melbourne? The Demons have shown that they travel ok this season, losing by just 5 to the red-hot Crows at Carrara, winning at both Sydney and Brisbane, and losing by just 22 points to the Eagles at Perth in a game which was closer than the final score showed. The Melbourne defense continues to be under-rated, having allow 100 points just once all season (Adelaide), at an av. of just 78 ppg over their last 10. Fremantle struggle to score (even at home), and in what looks to be a very even midfield battle, I expect the talented Melbourne forward line to kick a big enough score to win the game. As usual I'll be keeping my eye open for a couple of totals...Sydney/Richmond being one of them.

[TazaD]

Re: AFL - Round 16 Lucky I hadn't pulled the trigger on Brisbane yet... ...reports tonight that Mal Michael wants to retire, effective immediately!! I know Hawthorn aren't the most attacking of teams, but no Roe and no Michael will make the Lions' defense look extremely shaky! (Although Roe could be a chance to come back this week) Will watch with interest this one. Very strange.

[888]

Re: AFL - Round 16 hey guys in the local TAB for the market of Port vs Saints : Goal Margin Port to win under 39.5 Odds 3.25 Port to win over 39.5 Odds 10 I think its really a good bet to make and i have check betfair and actually TAB rates are higher atm. What you all think about this ?

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL - Round 16 If you played those odds to win equal amounts your only getting 2.44, wheras you get 2.7 by betting SU (last I looked) at sportingbet, or even 2.60 if you only have the TAB's. I actually fancy the Saints, Uncoabis. Dew should be back but with the types of players out lately and a cardboard cut-out standing CHF I think they struggle to find an avenue to goal. Note that the period they struggled last time was when Brogan was out - hurts their options too much in my view. Just my opinion though so go for it if you feel good about it. I'm on the Hawks already Taza. They've been good lately and I feel they're are a good sniff to turn the tables.

[TazaD]

Re: AFL - Round 16 You'd think if Port were to win, it would be by

[TazaD]

Re: AFL - Round 16 Bill Hurley's Sportsbook go 3.40 for the Dogs/Cats to keep it within 15.5!! TAB's 3.40 is the best for the Coll/WC game tho. Or...unsing Centrebet's 24.5 line you can effectively get 1.86 for the Dogs/Cats to keep it within 24.5 points, and 1.88 for the Eagles game. Fairly big price to pay, but an extra 18 points... Having said that, I do like the 3.40 for under 15.5 at the dome on Sunday :ok

[miguel_hamburglar]

Re: AFL - Round 16 Cousins has just been announced to be out, injured, for the match against Collingwood!! Great news for the Pies. And Akermanis has been dropped (for.... well..... being Aker) from Brisbane, same troubles that have followed the Lions for the last couple of weeks. For the Hawks Crawford is back in the side. I would say stay away from this (Brisbane V Hawthorn), could go either way. Given the Hawks lack of experience down back Brown could kick a bag, but Hawthorn on paper should win (IMO).

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL - Round 16 IS Cornes playing Taza? (I suppose we'll know more shortly) I read early in the week that he should be right but he won't be making the flight due to the type of injury. Yeah, I know adel are due tough training regime this time of year. Haw actually gave Crows curry at the stoppages, an area they do excell at which will help them against Bris. Their chip it around style does bother me though. Regardless of the opp last two their efforts have been much better and with players expected back (hope they don't introduce a bag of kids) it's a bit of punt on the notion that they'll be motivated by wanting to make amends the pathetic effort last time, and they're due for a result. Bris form has been very sound for a while and now and again a team can then come out a bit flat. No doubt, I have Bris fave but it's all about taking some overs here IMV.

[888]

Re: AFL - Round 16 I'm going for a lottery ticket on this week AFL punting. Heres my lottery combo : Either Team under 15.5 pts ( Bulldogs vs Geelong ) 3.10 Adelaide Win the match 1.08 Port Adelaide +15.5 1.85 Brisbane Win 1.49 Combined odds : 9.22 Stake : $5 :hope And as in for Brisbane vs Hawthorn I do have a feeling that home ground might play a part on this match, even thou on the paper its really tough to call who will be the winner, hopefully I can win this lottery :tongue2

[JohnZ_A]

Re: AFL - Round 16 My 7leg multi-bet: Kangaroos (+42.5) 1.91 Collingwood 1.90 Essendon (+24.5) 1.33 Hawthorn (+39.5) 1.20 Richmond (+39.5) 1.37 Geelong 1.83 Fremantle (+24.5) 1.34 ------------------------ 19.45 @ centrebet Happy Punting :ok

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL - Round 16 Gotta be in with a goood shot John. Kangas feels a bit of a gutty and worth a try. In the home straight if get past tonight.

[TazaD]

Re: AFL - Round 16 Not sure how anyone can take Geelong as favs against a top-6 Bulldogs team!! Seriously (yeah, slightly biassedly granted!), but Geelong are ordinary...minus Mooney they are worse still, are given there is doubt over Harley, King and Ablett...It's just not a very strong team at all, imo. Yeah, Gia is out for the 'Dogs...But he certainly hasn't been all that "game-influencing" all season... ...as I said earlier, Murphy and Hahn are big losses from their last meeting, but Mooney hurts just as much. I dunno...Definately couldn't take either team as favs...surely tampted by the +6.5 the TAB have on offer for the Dogs (even at 1.85!)...but again, think it will be very close...anyway, you know what I think... Despite the result, Ashtee, you must be giggling at your 2.41 for Collingwood!! I've got no doubt you've locked in a decent profit by now... ...but saying that, I'm not sure they are value at even money or less. Tarrant looked very unlikely at training during the week, and in fact, he, Buckley and Holland didn't train tonight (Friday)...with Didak and Licuria also doubtful, the Magpies are far from good things here!! Chance of rain in Sydney Sat night too...Gunna kill the value on the "under" I had planned, but Richmond _+21.5 now comes into calculations for sure. Just before 3/4 time...I'm wondering why not one of us mentioned the Crows -40.5 being a bargain against a bottom 4 side???..Madness!!

[TazaD]

Re: AFL - Round 16 Sorry, Ash (I should have said earlier)...Cornes was cleared to fly with the team on Wednesday. Big inclusion. Got evens for Port +15.5 on BF! :clap Taken Brisbane -12.5...Somehow missed all the 11's that were out there!!..Not sure what has swayed the public so, but a decent shift back to the favs tonight. Either way, I think Brisbane will be far too good...remembering of course, that Aker was out for the first meeting... Michael and Roe down back...a better midfield and Bradshaw forward looks a winner to me...I hope!!

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL - Round 16 I think Tigers are certainly value at 21.5 As said earlier I'm a bit of a watch on Brown, Richo but I don't feel like waiting given they've had plenty rain by all reports. Swans have lost four of last five after scraping home over roos. Even if those two players arn't at their best, these two clubs are on opposite curves as far as purpose goes and that can count for heaps.

[888]

Re: AFL - Round 16 its 22.5+ for Richmond in Betfair, just informing incase anyone is interested.

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL - Round 16

Just before 3/4 time...I'm wondering why not one of us mentioned the Crows -40.5 being a bargain against a bottom 4 side???..Madness!!

And talk about, duh!! I can't believe non of us saw the draw coming :eyes :lol Did look like two teams with their problems at the dome (not to mention Rocca). Handfull of players on each side doing all the good stuff. I won't be ready for the Collingwood bandwagon just yet.

[JohnZ_A]

Re: AFL - Round 16 3leg multi: St Kilda 1.50 Geelong 1.75 Fremantle (+24.5) 1.34 ---------------------- 10pts @ 3.52 with centrebet Starting Bank 100pts Current Bank 80pts (I had 10pts on my 7leg multi)

[TazaD]

Re: AFL - Round 16 Brisbane 11.18 Hawthorn 11.8 What a sick, god-awful scoreline! :@ Had the last 5 shots, missed them all. Bradshaw dropped 2 marks 30 metres out right before HT and then again with about 30 seconds left in the game. I honestly expected them to cruise to a decent cover while watching...then asusming someone would kick a late goal....then... oh, well....:( Been a couple of quick showers over nght here in Launceston but nothing major. Sun's out now, but it is C-O-L-D!!!

[TazaD]

Re: AFL - Round 16 Turned into a beautiful day down here now...Still only about 13-14 dg's, but sun's out and no wind at all. Obviously already on Port, but I think there's value in the total here too... over 184.5 (2.55) ...with a small saver on the 165-184 (2.95) The ground has historically been low scoring because of it's size, but the last few games have seen a lot more scoring as teams presumably are getting used to playing it. Port have played here 4 times and topped 90 each time (Av. 103!) St. Kilda's last 2 games here (v. Freo and Port) have gone over 184.5 Good odds, and I don't think the 165 will be in much doubt to at least get money back. Still shaking my head at Brisbane not being able to manage a goal in the last 1/4... :wall Officially on Geelong/Doggies

[888]

Re: AFL - Round 16 damn port vs st.kilda not looking good, hopefully port won't lose by too much, I'm on the same boat as you Tazad for this match

[888]

Re: AFL - Round 16 That was a nerve wrecking match. Really really tense especially in the last minute. If Motlop puts it in, it will surely add another new mark on the Saint record of playing bad footie down in Launceston. St. Kilda 64 - 60 Port Adelaide - Full time

[JohnZ_A]

Re: AFL - Round 16

3leg multi: St Kilda 1.50 Geelong 1.75 Fremantle (+24.5) 1.34 ---------------------- 10pts @ 3.52 with centrebet Starting Bank 100pts Current Bank 80pts (I had 10pts on my 7leg multi)

Winner! (35.20pts) :nana Starting Bank 100pts Current Bank 115.20pts

[TazaD]

Re: AFL - Round 16 Nice one John. Can't believe how lucky the Saints were to scrape home tho! Motlop's effort after the siren to win it was terrible!! Massive choke, after one of the best marks you'll ever see. Pretty ordinary game to watch...lots of bad skills, esp. goal kicking from both teams. Port seem to have gone to this super defensive, possession game to shore up their D which was allowing big scores not so long ago...Sydney this week a score of 40 might nearly win it! :D Doggies game was the opposite end of the scale...fantastic to watch (apart from the ****ing result!! :@:@ ), and yeah, couldn't have been any closer. One point in it...one shot...one inside 50...4 clearances...crazy. Early thoghts for next week...but why the hell are Brisbane high 1.80's against Essendon??? (Brisbane had 15 more inside 50's on the weekend to make the 10 point win even harder to believe!! :( ) Essendon had 11 less inside 50's and 5 less shots than Carlton. The Lions go alright at the Dome...I expect them to win, and still be a big chance to make the 8.

[JohnZ_A]

Re: AFL - Round 16 Get on the Bombers!!!!!!! Hird, McPhee and Fletcher are BACK this week!!!!

[888]

Re: AFL - Round 16 yeah this week had been good punting and tips from everyone here ;) Thx to you guys I win $60 AUD this week. My lottery pays off. :cow Initially I was only going to bet on multi Brisbane and Adelaide win which give only like 1.7 crappy returns :loon

[TazaD]

Re: AFL - Round 16

Get on the Bombers!!!!!!! Hird, McPhee and Fletcher are BACK this week!!!!

True, true. (At this stage anyway...long week of training ahead ;)) Still can't possibly see a 1-15 team as favs...esp. to a Brisbane team that everyone keeps writing off. Actually looks a very tight week ahead now I've had a bit of a closer look at some numbers. Will be tempted to play Hawthorn and Carlton, but doubt whether I'll get enough points. The only real value I see is St. Kilda @ 1.40...all other games look just about spot on to me. Will take Sydney at 1.90 or better (unlikely)...hopefully 2.00 for Brisbane as the Essendon backers jump on board late in the week. :D Maybe a couple of low-scorers total-wise if we get some decent numbers, but yeah, looks like it could be a very quiet week indeed.

[JohnZ_A]

Re: AFL - Round 16 Perhaps we should start the R17 thread??? Brisbane havent beaten anyone yet, especially in the last 2 weeks. Forget about the blues or hawks both are crap. i wouldnt underestimate the tigers at the 'G'..love playing there I love the price on the swans at aami :ok