ralphie7 Posted April 29, 2021 Share Posted April 29, 2021 Thursday 29/04/2021 No Selections Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Offramp Posted April 29, 2021 Share Posted April 29, 2021 @ralphie7I had a look and I saw two at Punchestown. 13:40 COUSIN HARRY 9/1 & 16:50 SINGING BANJO 23/1 Both won 2 days ago! However I find Irish racing very unpredictable. Big fields of very good horses from out of the way stables. I'd prefer Redcar 15:15 COSMOS RAJ 13/8. This horse won 4 days ago, and it is now the favourite. Larkin22 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ralphie7 Posted April 30, 2021 Share Posted April 30, 2021 Sorry just seen your post . Didn't get back on again today. I did back Singing Banjo but only got 20/1 (put it on early) I think it won at 33/1 sometimes you win sometimes you lose by putting your bets on early. Hope you had a good day. They weren't system Selections though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ralphie7 Posted April 30, 2021 Share Posted April 30, 2021 Friday 30/04/2021 No Selections Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ralphie7 Posted May 1, 2021 Share Posted May 1, 2021 Saturday 01/05/2021 No Selections Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ralphie7 Posted May 2, 2021 Share Posted May 2, 2021 Sunday 02/05/2021 No Selections Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ralphie7 Posted May 3, 2021 Share Posted May 3, 2021 Monday 03/05/2021 No Selections Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ralphie7 Posted May 4, 2021 Share Posted May 4, 2021 Tuesday 04/05/2021 No Selections Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted May 4, 2021 Share Posted May 4, 2021 On 4/29/2021 at 8:38 AM, Offramp said: However I find Irish racing very unpredictable. Big fields of very good horses from out of the way stables. For flat racing horses that ran less than 5 days ago the Irish runners have an AE of 1.16 compared to 1.08 for GB runners. gbettle 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ralphie7 Posted May 5, 2021 Share Posted May 5, 2021 Wednesday 05/05/2021 No Selections Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ralphie7 Posted May 6, 2021 Share Posted May 6, 2021 Thursday 06/05/2021 No Selections Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ralphie7 Posted May 7, 2021 Share Posted May 7, 2021 Friday 07/05/2021 No Selections Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ralphie7 Posted May 8, 2021 Share Posted May 8, 2021 Saturday 08/05/2021 No Selections Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ralphie7 Posted May 9, 2021 Share Posted May 9, 2021 Sunday 09/05/2021 No Selections Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Offramp Posted May 9, 2021 Share Posted May 9, 2021 (edited) Yesterday, that is Saturday 8th May 2021 at Warwick 18:20, there was a runner called ROSY WORLD. That horse had won out of 7 horses (same course, same distance) on 3/5/2021, that is 6 days before. I didn't fancy it. It was 5/2f and came 3rd out of 9. Edited May 9, 2021 by Offramp Added image for evidence Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ralphie7 Posted May 9, 2021 Share Posted May 9, 2021 Good job you didn't back it then ? MCLARKE and Offramp 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ralphie7 Posted May 10, 2021 Share Posted May 10, 2021 Monday 10/05/2021 Catterick 04:30 LET ME BE f/c. 6/4 Stake = 10 pts. WIN MCLARKE 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Offramp Posted May 10, 2021 Share Posted May 10, 2021 I saw MYKONOS ST JOHN 9/4 13:15 Catterick. Won 6 days ago. Both of these 2 horses have a 5lb penalty. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted May 10, 2021 Share Posted May 10, 2021 4 hours ago, Offramp said: Won 6 days ago. Both of these 2 horses have a 5lb penalty. I'm not sure what @ralphie7uses to determine quick returners but on the flat I find that 4 days is the ideal cut off with an AE of 1.10. It then drops to less than 1.02 for 5/6 days. Offramp 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Offramp Posted May 10, 2021 Share Posted May 10, 2021 5 hours ago, MCLARKE said: I'm not sure what @ralphie7uses to determine quick returners but on the flat I find that 4 days is the ideal cut off with an AE of 1.10. It then drops to less than 1.02 for 5/6 days. I don't know that last bit means. Whatever happens I really like @ralphie7 's system. I think it was originally A winner within one week. The idea was to avoid the increase of the handicap. @MCLARKE@MCLARKE reckons 5 days might beat the handicapper. I reckon the system is okay if anyone uses it sensibly: a recent race (within the most 2 weeks), and the horse wins or has a close second. I don't think it's so important to "beat the handicapper". I think that a horse WINNING and RECENTLY. USED WITH SENSE it's a clever idea by @ralphie7 MCLARKE 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ralphie7 Posted May 10, 2021 Share Posted May 10, 2021 Result Catterick 04:30 LET ME BE..... 1st..4/6 rule 4 applies @ 15% Todays Profit = + 5.67 pts Current Years Profit 2021 = + 35.82 pts (Years Profit 2020 = +17.50 pts.) (Years Profit 2019 = + 287.87 pts.) (Years Profit 2018 = + 90.52 pts.) (Years Profit 2017 = - 73.44 pts.) (Years Profit 2016 = + 437.86 pts.) (Years Profit 2015 = + 18.52 pts.) (Years Loss 2014 = - 30.20 pts.) (Years Loss 2013 = - 105.06 pts.) (Years Profit 2012 = +127.65 pts.) (Years Loss 2011 = - 13.82 pts.) (Years Profit 2010 = +166.01 pts.) Bank = + 2850.22 pts. Profit = + 2750.22 pts. Current Winning Run = 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ralphie7 Posted May 11, 2021 Share Posted May 11, 2021 Tuesday 11/05/2021 Beverley 02:15 MO CELITA f/c. 11/8 Stake = 10 pts. WIN MCLARKE and black rabbit 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ralphie7 Posted May 11, 2021 Share Posted May 11, 2021 Result Beverley 02:15 MO CELITA..... 1st..2/13 Todays Profit = + 1.54 pts Current Years Profit 2021 = + 37.36 pts (Years Profit 2020 = +17.50 pts.) (Years Profit 2019 = + 287.87 pts.) (Years Profit 2018 = + 90.52 pts.) (Years Profit 2017 = - 73.44 pts.) (Years Profit 2016 = + 437.86 pts.) (Years Profit 2015 = + 18.52 pts.) (Years Loss 2014 = - 30.20 pts.) (Years Loss 2013 = - 105.06 pts.) (Years Profit 2012 = +127.65 pts.) (Years Loss 2011 = - 13.82 pts.) (Years Profit 2010 = +166.01 pts.) Bank = + 2851.76 pts. Profit = + 2751.76 pts. Current Winning Run = 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ralphie7 Posted May 12, 2021 Share Posted May 12, 2021 Wednesday 12/05/2021 Worcester 04:35 AN TAILLIUR f/c. 15/8 Stake = 10 pts. WIN York 04:50 SOCIOLOGIST f/c. 10/1 Stake = 5 pts. EACH WAY Thriftysolo and MCLARKE 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ralphie7 Posted May 12, 2021 Share Posted May 12, 2021 Result Worcester 04:35 AN TAILLIUR..... 1st..8/11 rule 4 applies @ 15% York 04:50 SOCIOLOGIST..... nowhere (13/2) Todays Profit = - 3.82 pts Current Years Profit 2021 = + 33.54 pts (Years Profit 2020 = +17.50 pts.) (Years Profit 2019 = + 287.87 pts.) (Years Profit 2018 = + 90.52 pts.) (Years Profit 2017 = - 73.44 pts.) (Years Profit 2016 = + 437.86 pts.) (Years Profit 2015 = + 18.52 pts.) (Years Loss 2014 = - 30.20 pts.) (Years Loss 2013 = - 105.06 pts.) (Years Profit 2012 = +127.65 pts.) (Years Loss 2011 = - 13.82 pts.) (Years Profit 2010 = +166.01 pts.) Bank = + 2847. 94pts. Profit = + 2747.94 pts. Current Losing Run = 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ralphie7 Posted May 13, 2021 Share Posted May 13, 2021 Thursday 13/05/2021 No Selections Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ralphie7 Posted May 14, 2021 Share Posted May 14, 2021 Friday 14/05/2021 No Selections Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ralphie7 Posted May 15, 2021 Share Posted May 15, 2021 Saturday 15/05/2021 Uttoxeter 08:20 OLYMPIC HONOUR f/c. 2/1 Stake = 10 pts. WIN Thriftysolo 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ralphie7 Posted May 15, 2021 Share Posted May 15, 2021 Result Uttoxeter 08:20 OLYMPIC HONOUR..... Non-Runner Todays Profit = + 0.00 pts Current Years Profit 2021 = + 33.54 pts (Years Profit 2020 = +17.50 pts.) (Years Profit 2019 = + 287.87 pts.) (Years Profit 2018 = + 90.52 pts.) (Years Profit 2017 = - 73.44 pts.) (Years Profit 2016 = + 437.86 pts.) (Years Profit 2015 = + 18.52 pts.) (Years Loss 2014 = - 30.20 pts.) (Years Loss 2013 = - 105.06 pts.) (Years Profit 2012 = +127.65 pts.) (Years Loss 2011 = - 13.82 pts.) (Years Profit 2010 = +166.01 pts.) Bank = + 2847. 94pts. Profit = + 2747.94 pts. Current Losing Run = 1 Wildgarden 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted May 15, 2021 Share Posted May 15, 2021 On 5/10/2021 at 1:15 PM, MCLARKE said: I'm not sure what @ralphie7uses to determine quick returners but on the flat I find that 4 days is the ideal cut off with an AE of 1.10. It then drops to less than 1.02 for 5/6 days. To be fair these statistics relates to all runners, not just winners. For winners the difference is even greater 1-4 days AE 1.13 with a strike rate of 30%, 5-6 days AE 0.97 with a strike rate of 23%. 4 days certainly appears to be the optimal cut off point. gbettle and Wildgarden 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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