Tennis : French Open (28th May - 11th June)

[Bamse81]

Re: Tennis : French Open (28th May - 11th June)

Just incase anyone is reading this wrong it was Nalbandian who retired so we have the dream final of Federer v Nadal.

oops, my bad. I just read the livescore were it said retired after Federers name. Good we have the dream final though :dude What average odds does one get for backing them both to win 3-2?

[Mr Intensity]

Re: Tennis : French Open (28th May - 11th June)

What average odds does one get for backing them both to win 3-2?

Should be able to get 6.00 or bigger on both, so somewhere between 3.00 and 3.50 when all the prices are out:ok

[edtkh]

Re: Tennis : French Open (28th May - 11th June)

He played a lot better against Safin than he did at the start of the match today:\. He was bad last year against Nadal but I'm still not sure it was worse than today - against Nadal he was pushing too much because of the light and hitting a lot of forehands into the net. Today he was framing so many balls it was unbelieveable. At least he got the result in the end.

Statistically, you don't play "better" by making more than 50 unforced errors in each of those matches(5 sets against Safin and 4 sets against Nadal), compared to just 19 in almost 3 complete sets today. And aesthetically, I haven't got a clue what you were watching if you reckoned this was Federer's worst performance in years.

I've already mentioned a few times during this thread that I fancy Federer to beat Nadal' date=' so I've no idea where that's coming from:eyes[/quote'] I was addressing the majority who fancy Nadal here, so just excuse yourself from the equation if you're in the Federer camp. Nope, I don't recall gloating about anything either - just as I could bloody well make the same excuse and claim to have made a profit from this year's Aussie Open instead of alluding to the fact I got the ante-post spot on for it too. As a matter of fact, I was making a personal assessment of my interests in those tournies as a whole, and not on my match betting records alone - so read what you would into it. ;) Perhaps, you meant to rephrase your interpretation of worst game in years?

[Mr Intensity]

Re: Tennis : French Open (28th May - 11th June)

Statistically, you don't play "better" by making more than 50 unforced errors in each of those matches(5 sets against Safin and 4 sets against Nadal), compared to just 19 in almost 3 complete sets today. And aesthetically, I haven't got a clue what you were watching if you reckoned this was Federer's worst performance in years.

I was making my assessment at 6-3 3-0 - he got much better after that point, but up to that point, it was the worst I've seen him play in years:unsure.

I was addressing the majority who fancy Nadal here, so just excuse yourself from the equation if you're in the Federer camp.

OK mate thought you were referring to me as the rest of your reply was:ok

Nope, I don't recall gloating about anything either - just as I could bloody well make the same excuse and claim to have made a profit from this year's Aussie Open instead of alluding to the fact I got the ante-post spot on for it too. As a matter of fact, I was making a personal assessment of my interests in those tournies as a whole, and not on my match betting records alone - so read what you would into it. ;) Perhaps, you meant to rephrase your interpretation of worst game in years?

No, he was shite, shite, shite:lol :lol :lol Anyway, Henin - Federer double for the weekend:ok

[edtkh]

Re: Tennis : French Open (28th May - 11th June)

I was making my assessment at 6-3 3-0 - he got much better after that point' date=' but up to that point, it was the worst I've seen him play in years:unsure.[/quote'] Seriously, I'm not sure if you saw his match against Nadal at RG last year - truth be told, that was the only match(among the 4 he lost in 2005) which I hadn't a doubt in my mind he deserved to lose. He wasn't impressive against Safin either, but at least he was par for the course(Safin basically served up an equal dosage of brilliance and stupidity in equal measure). That said, he was certainly a hell lot worse in both matches than he was today even at 6-3, 3-0 down...

[A-Team]

Re: Tennis : French Open (28th May - 11th June) I need h-h and nadal to win to avoid an awful tournament for me. I think I just about break even if they both come in.

[FootballTennis]

Re: Tennis : French Open (28th May - 11th June)

I need h-h and nadal to win to avoid an awful tournament for me. I think I just about break even if they both come in.

Its fairly safe I would say

[edtkh]

Re: Tennis : French Open (28th May - 11th June) To be honest, Henin-Hardenne to nick this in straight sets is pretty tasty, actually. She's one who doesn't fool around in finals(she thumped Mary Pierce 6-1, 6-1 last year and also won her maiden crown back here in 2003 in similar fashion) and with the wound of this year's Aussie Open Final still in her mind, I'm sure she'd be up for this to make up for the loss Down Under. Needless to say, if she really steps up a gear(as opposed to her inconsistent performance near the end when she was closing out against Groenefeld), Kuznetsova will really struggle to match her...

[sensibleboy]

Re: Tennis : French Open (28th May - 11th June) So its a Nadal and Federer final... Nadal, 1.70 and Federer 2.40 Close one but I like Roger at that price.

[Mr Intensity]

Re: Tennis : French Open (28th May - 11th June)

Sport	Tennis
Event	French Open
Selection	FEDERER 3-1 or 3-2 v Nadal
Strength	10/10
Date	11/06/2006
Bookmaker/Price	>Bet365 @ 3.00 (Back)
Reasoning	Bet365 go 6.00 on 3-1 and 3-2 so take both instead of the Federer straight win. I really can't see it ending 3-0 so I think this price is much better than the 2.4ish best price on the win. Everyone has there opinions on this one and I think you could justify anything with such class on display so make your decision and be positive about it :). So here's my biased opinion.... H2H is 5-1 to Nadal and I could make excuses for Fed in a few of those but it's not going to change things. The last meeting in Rome is by far the most important. Federer had a different approach to his usual clay game; he was more aggressive on return and from the back, and he was approaching the net a lot more. It was a lot more effective than his previous more passive shot making game. I've no idea how he lost that match, for long periods he was the far better player but Nadal managed to come through in the decisive moments. But we saw that Fed can take it to him, and I think Fed can take that extra step and capture his Grand Slam. I was wary of backing him at the beginning of the tournament, purely because of his draw, and if he had a couple of tough 5 setters I wouldn't have fancied him to take out Nadal. However, the threat of Berdych, Kiefer, Robredo, Nalbandian, Gaudio, Davydenko never materialised or was swept away with ease. He's dropped a couple of sets but it hasn't really been tough, and I think he'll be fresh enough for this. The first 9 games against Nalbandian were shocking, but he pulled himself together in that one, and I can't see him starting that badly 2 matchs in a row. But what of Nadal? In the beginning he looked to have a really easy draw, but he's had tough matches against Mathieu and Hewitt and in both of those we saw that being aggressive can hurt him. Especially the Mathieu game, where the Frenchman was just blasting awat at him and had success - I've no doubt Fed saw that and will have no doubt how to approach this one. Apart from that, he has looked very good, and I've no problem with people taking Nadal in this final, you have very good reason to. Also, Nadal has had some issues with taking too much time between points, and also receiving coaching during the match. Personally, I think he's bending the rules too far and I would love it, LOVE IT if Federer can complete his destiny here.

[edtkh]

Re: Tennis : French Open (28th May - 11th June) And Henin's success brings my match betting for this tourny a profittable end of sorts, with a 34.2pts(after taking into consideration Fed's bet was void due to Bandy's retirement :wall ) on Day 14. For speculative interest, just taking a set betting selection for the men's final. 10pts Federer to win 3-1 (6.00 @ Betfair) I don't recall there being too many 5-set finals in Grand Slams(and the last one at RG was the Gaudio-Coria affair in 2004 which took place under the most unlikely of circumstances, dragging the match into a prolonged 5-setter) and much has a Nadal-Federer clash has all the makings of a long, drawn out classic, I doubt Federer will very much want to drag this on longer than necessary considering he knows how much is at stake today. In essence, this is a speculative bet going on instincts more than anything as Federer has never lost a Grand Slam final and neither has he played 5 sets in any Grand Slam final(throw in the fact that I can't see him winning 3-0 and that leaves just 1 selection for me) - that leaves 3-1 at perhaps, the most plausible outcome if past records/omens are anything to go by... Cheers & Good Luck! :ok Starting Bank : 100.00pts Current Bank : 149.78pts Profit/Loss : 49.78pts

[FootballTennis]

Re: Tennis : French Open (28th May - 11th June) I would love it if Federer gets 2 match pts again and the memories haunt him and he CHOKES away the match points again just like last time. that would be so funny. It was funny enough first time round as Federer looked so gutted, if it was to happen in the RG final he will probably cry. I already have my entire account on nadal winning the French open from 2 weeks ago so there is no need to bet here.

[DamirJ]

Re: Tennis : French Open (28th May - 11th June)

Sport	Tennis
Event	Rafael Nadal vs Roger Federer
Selection	Rafael Nadal to win
Strength	10/10
Date	11/06/2006
Bookmaker/Price	Pinnacle Sports @ 1.72 (Back)
Reasoning	Very big game today. It looks like Roger Federer had a little worse players to play than Nadal. He lost one set against Massu and one set against David Nalbandian before the Argentinian retired in third. On his way to finals Roger won against Hartfield, Falla, Massu, Berdych, Ancic and finally Nalbandian. On the other side, Nadal played against Soderling, Kim, Mathieu, Hewitt, Djokovic and finally Ljubicic. Nadal lost one set against Mathieu and one against Hewitt. In semies Ljubicic was just weak for Spaniard, 6-4 6-2 7-6(7). Both players know each other very weel and there is not a lot things needed to be said. Nadal has three wins this year against Roger, five out of six. He has 59 win on clay in a row and I expect from him to continue this row for at least this match.

:ok

[DamirJ]

Re: Tennis : French Open (28th May - 11th June)

Sport	Tennis
Event	Rafael Nadal vs Roger Federer
Selection	Over 41.5 Games
Strength	10/10
Date	11/06/2006
Bookmaker/Price	Eurobet @ 1.85 (Back)
Reasoning	Just like I said in my first preview, this is final and at least four hard sets are expected. Almost their matches played at Grand Slams were in five sets. I expect the same today. Neither of those two can provide a victory in three sets. Rafel Nadal lost two sets during Roland Garros, to Mathieu and to Hewitt. On the other side, Roger lost to Nalbandian in semies and to Massu Nicolas from Chile. I expect Nadal to stary first to attack Roger with powerfull shots and most likely to take first set. But, big king Roger Federer can return to the game in any moment. Overall, I believe that Over 41.5 Games is the safiest bet today.

:ok

[Matt]

Re: Tennis : French Open (28th May - 11th June) I cant believe some people are having whole bank jobs on a single player here, didnt anyone watch how close the last match between these two was! :eek :eek :eek Anyone steaming in could need treatment for heart problems by 6pm tonight :lol Personally I think Federer will finally get him today, Fed is a big game player and you know how much he would to beat Nadal today, in the last match he should of beat him but will no doubt have taken from it that he can beat him. Fed is defintely the value at odds-agaisnt and Ill have a small tickle on him at 2.30ish.

[robby]

Re: Tennis : French Open (28th May - 11th June)

Fed is defintely the value at odds-agaisnt and Ill have a small tickle on him at 2.30ish.

:ok A hell of a lot more value (winning one match) than 2/1 to win it outright at the very beginning (winning seven).

[Mr Intensity]

Re: Tennis : French Open (28th May - 11th June)

:ok A hell of a lot more value (winning one match) than 2/1 to win it outright at the very beginning (winning seven).

What about being the same price to win 3-1 or 3-2 today as he was at the start:tongue2 :ok

[Mr Intensity]

Re: Tennis : French Open (28th May - 11th June) Crazy couple of sets, Fed 6-1 1-6. No idea which way it will swing now:unsure

[meatman]

Re: Tennis : French Open (28th May - 11th June) superb viewing is this match :ok

[edtkh]

Re: Tennis : French Open (28th May - 11th June) Well, while I can't have any complains from a betting perspective for this tourny, I guess it just wasn't meant to be Federer's Slam afterall - certainly dissapointing that Federer didn't win this time, but inevitably, I feel you've got to start questioning his mental belief(which was suspect from his body language at times today, although that's taking nothing away from Nadal) whenever he plays Nadal. Fair play to Nadal and long may this rivalry continue. And that rounds up what has been a profittable fortnight of punting for me - hope everyone out there has had fun punting on this tourny... Until next year then. :D Starting Bank : 100.00pts Current Bank : 139.78pts Profit/Loss : 39.78pts

[FootballTennis]

Re: Tennis : French Open (28th May - 11th June) can't exactly call it a rivalry, Nadal owns Federer. Nadal's head to head with federer is now 6-1 with Federer's only victory coming when Nadal was a nobody youngster ranked outside the top 30.

[alexmac]

Re: Tennis : French Open (28th May - 11th June) Of course it is a rivalry mate... there doesn't have to be an equal share of wins/losses to class something as a rivalry...

[A-Team]

Re: Tennis : French Open (28th May - 11th June) Brilliant mental strength from Nadal to pull himself together so quickly after the slight wobble when serving for the match. For the last 3 sets he was really dominant. The gap was a lot bigger than it has been in their previous meetings this year, I thought. It feels like a miraculous escape for me to break even for the tournament, but an outright bet on the favourite can hardly be classed as that.

[FootballTennis]

Re: Tennis : French Open (28th May - 11th June)

Of course it is a rivalry mate... there doesn't have to be an equal share of wins/losses to class something as a rivalry...

They used to say that about Federer/Roddick :eek

[Mr Intensity]

Re: Tennis : French Open (28th May - 11th June) Federer wasn't great today, at points he lacked belief, most evidently in the tiebreak. He needs a win over Nadal and there should be a few opportunites on the American hardcourts. Personally, thank christ that's over! I was up after the first week, but didn't hit a single winner in the second week which is truly shocking (best I could do was a couple of voids:lol :lol). Onto the grass we all go....

[edtkh]

Re: Tennis : French Open (28th May - 11th June)

can't exactly call it a rivalry' date=' Nadal owns Federer. Nadal's head to head with federer is now 6-1 with Federer's only victory coming when Nadal was a nobody youngster ranked outside the top 30.[/quote'] And how does it sound when Nadal won his first match against Federer as a "nobody youngster" back in 2004 at Miami as well(that took place before Federer beat the "nobody youngster" at the same event a year later :lol )? All the stats prove at the moment is a plain and simple fact : Nadal is better than Federer on clay, period.

[edtkh]

Re: Tennis : French Open (28th May - 11th June)

Federer wasn't great today, at points he lacked belief, most evidently in the tiebreak. He needs a win over Nadal and there should be a few opportunites on the American hardcourts.

Same sentiments actually. If you read an earlier post of mine, I said Federer's defeat to Nadal at Roland Garros last year was the only one where I felt he deserved to lose - and I can't help feeling the same way yesterday for large portions of the game. His body language just wasn't right (in fact, nothing about Federer was after he tossed away the 3 break points against Nadal early in the second set until he regained a temporary momentum by levelling the match at 5-5 in the 4th set) - I just hope the psychological scar Nadal's superb run against him on clay will not have damaged his belief should he face Nadal on clay again because quite simply, no one has come closer to beating Nadal on clay than Federer. ;)

[FootballTennis]

Re: Tennis : French Open (28th May - 11th June)

And how does it sound when Nadal won his first match against Federer as a "nobody youngster" back in 2004 at Miami as well(that took place before Federer beat the "nobody youngster" at the same event a year later :lol )? All the stats prove at the moment is a plain and simple fact : Nadal is better than Federer on clay' date=' period.[/quote'] When Nadal was a lowly ranked "nobody" and Federer was number 1, their h2h is 1-1. Since Nadal being a top 10 player, their h2h is 5-0 to Nadal. 4 on clay and 1 on hardcourt. Nadal is no just better than Federer on clay, he 100% totally owns him on clay. Similar to Federer owning Roddick on grass.

[alexmac]

Re: Tennis : French Open (28th May - 11th June) How much did he buy him for? :unsure

[edtkh]

Re: Tennis : French Open (28th May - 11th June)

When Nadal was a lowly ranked "nobody" and Federer was number 1, their h2h is 1-1. Since Nadal being a top 10 player, their h2h is 5-0 to Nadal. 4 on clay and 1 on hardcourt. Nadal is no just better than Federer on clay, he 100% totally owns him on clay. Similar to Federer owning Roddick on grass.

Define "own". Nadal has never straightsetted Federer on the surface you claim he "owns" him on. If you're on the fact Nadal's better than Federer on clay, then there's no disputing it. It still hardly makes sense about your "nobody youngster" drivel - you claim Federer beat Nadal when he was a "nobody youngster". How laughable is that when you consider Nadal actually recorded his first win in their matchups before Federer's as a younger "nobody youngster"? :lol You hardly need to be a Rod Laver to be able to appreciate the ability of someone like Nadal - it's a shame you even need to talk about his age and rankings here!