AFL - Round 9

[Ashtee]

Event Brisbane v Fremantle Selection Fremantle Strength 7/10 Date 28/05/2006 Bookmaker/Price Bet365 @ 2.45 (Back) Reasoning Brisbane’s form has been good the last two weeks after having addressed morale issues. They do step up in grade and the winning margins of the two games distorts the market for this IMO. Port were a totally dispirited team and were clearly a soft opponent for Brisbane LW. Hawthorn the week before were also poor. We all know by now never to totally trust Fremantle. They as well as Bris now have a mounting injury list including that McPharlin must be some doubt, however they do have excellent depth. Fremantle are actually in good form, through Adel, St.K, WCE, Melb four of the last five matches. My rating; Brisbane 9/10

[TazaD]

Re: AFL - Round 9 Yeah...tempted by Freo myself Ash, but Brisbane did beat them in Perth easily last season with much the same players on the park as they do now... Other than that, it really does look like a fav's weekend to me. Sydney -22.5 looks a bargain. Essendon -10.5 and West Coast -20.5 look very playable.

[TazaD]

Re: AFL - Round 9 Sydney -22.5 Just a big difference in class here. Hawthorn stocks have risen slightly due to Croad back (will he really play though??), but still Sydney have way too much for them all over the ground. The Hawks 4 wins have come against poor teams and/or poor situations...actaully interesting to note that in their 4 wins they have held the opp to under 100 (av. 71.75) and in their losses they have allowed an av. of 115.75. Sydney are on fire, scoring freely and winning by decent margins. They won both meetings last season by 63 (home) and 54 at the MCG,and I can't see them having too much trouble handling the Hawks again here. Essendon -10.5 Will keep fading the rock bottom Port, who give a soft spread here due to Essendon having just 1 win...but they have been very competative against some good teams. Port, on the other hand, are going from one disaster to another. They have the worst ranked midfield in the AFL, and will now be without Chad Cornes, Peter Burgoine and Kingsley. Thay have allowed the most points in the comp (allow 30 shots a game!) which will be welcome news to Essendon who have struggled to kick a decent score without Lloyd and Hird. Port have lost 5 of their last 6 at the dome, by an av. of 52 points, and they won last year's meeting at AAMI by just 19 points as 1.36 fav...Hird didn't play, Lloyd kicked just 1, and Tredrea kicked 5 (which won't happen this weekend with him barely 50% fit and really struggling). Can't see any reason not to keep opposing a Port who have lost 6 games by more than 5 goals. West Coast -20.5 I think Melbourne are being over-rated after 2 big wins, but one against Freo who were on a big let down after beating West Coast, and gave up after 1/4 time, and the other v. a terrible (and depleted) Hawthorn, who gave up as well! West Coast have had 2 tightish wins, but neither game was a close as the score suggested. They won by 14 v. Collingwood, but had 16 more inside 50's and 9 more shots...won by 21 v. Esseendon, but had 12 more inside 50's and 11 more shots, so both wins could well have been by a lot more.

[matjnewton]

Re: AFL - Round 9 Well not too much yet said on this thread! Slow round for the punting? I think Kangaroos +30.5 could be a good bet. Saints have yet to find consistency. Mat.

[TazaD]

Re: AFL - Round 9 Just not much to say I don't think, Mat! :D I thought we might have gotten Geelong at some longer odds this week after last weeks results...I think they'll win, but 1.33 is way too short. Crows? Should win by a million...In fact, I doubt very much whether Carlton can kick 5 goals for the game!!...Having said that, they do have a surprisingly good record @ AAMI, including a tight loss last season the week after getting belted by the Saints. All a bit spooky for me!! :D Happy I got the Bombers -10.5...out to -14.5 now and going further by he looks. Apparently most people didn't know Cornes and Burgoine were out? Not sure why else would cause the big jump in a day. Sydney actually coming in a bit, and people are talking up an upset! Can't possibly see it...was the stand out bet of the week for me. The again, I've been way off before. I'm waiting for the total in the Saints game tho...think it could well be a low scorer. 108-85 last season, but interesting to compare the teams now as to how they were going last season...inside 50's very similar, defense virtually identical, but neither team can score this year! Kangas have a shot every 2.27 entries (1.92 last season), the Saints 2.10 (1.88 last season). Obviously it depends what totals/prices I can see on Sunday. Not sure about a side. Saints D is rock solid in the Dome, and Kangas have been bad so far, beating Port and Hawks (both likely bottom 4), and 5 of their 6 losses have been by 24+ .... ...you're right tho, Saints not going too well themselves. Just big wins over a dismal Carlton and Brisbane off a 5 day break at home. Other than that, things have been tight. Under or nothing for me. Ended up getting -19.5 for the Eagles...I just don't rate Melbourne, and I'll be surprised if they keep this one close...Although apparently Embly injured his shoulder at training and could be a late withdrawal. Anyway, after all that, **** football! The Doggies will be lucky to field a team next week! :@ If it's not bad enough we've lost 6 blokes over 6'4'', now Murphy out for the season and Gio 2-3 weeks with a hammy. Very sad state of affairs, in what should have been a very promising season :(

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL - Round 9 Something of note about the Saints: 1. They did also begin a little slowly last year and built on that. 2. Their insipid form previous to Carlton involved a demanding schedule - a 3 x 6 situation! as well as a double traveller amongst it. I do feel they have a bit to prove yet though and Kangas maybe worth a try at the price? I backed Carton in this fixture the last two years (Rd-11, Rd-10). Similarily, last year they were off some low confidence performances and came out smokin (lost by 14 - that's 14 points by the way :lol ). A bit of positive karma about them this week coming through press, I believe - spill the guts meetings, etc. I've been considering playing the 'cap. Particuarly with it out, at Pinnacle. Adel you'd expect to rebound strongly, and be far too brilliant, but just maybe the expectations of simply doing this, given a weak opponent and after a series of perfect form, leaves them a little off again? I too was surprised by the big move for dons after teams were published. Early in the week Cornes had been mentioned as in doubt somewhere in there website I think. Also Ess have dropped some talent/experience for lesser players. I do like them to win though. Agree Geelong are a little on the short side. Richmond are almost a viable bet IMO, regardless of the fact this could possibly end up a flogging. My other bet for the week is Sydney, which I took at 1.36 mid-week. Hey, Taza. Rotten luck how things are going with all your talls and KP's getting injured. Just hope you have better luck with some of those injuries and some of your smalls are the guys that go down in future, like Gia tonight and maybe West (2nd best player in the league, by the way) and Gilbee. :cheers :lol :lol

[TazaD]

Re: AFL - Round 9 Never back the bottom team as favs....never back the bottom team as favs...never back the bottom team as favs... St. Kilda v. Kangaroos under 185.5 (1.90 Betfair) Great odds imo. As I said, last years game 193 was scored, but both teams scoring is well down on last season. Saints D in the dome is great, allowing just 74 ppg over their last 4, and the Kanga's have only topped 87 twice, both against bad teams (Hawthorn and Port)...they haven't allowed more than 26 shots in their last 5 either, so decent defence and some slow play should see this one be a relatively low scorer too. Brisbane v. Freo over 192 (2.45) (171-191 as a saver) Freo's scoring has been down, but their last 5 have been against 3 top defensive teams, they gave up in Melbourne, and the Kanga's slow game plan last week...but they should get back to some scoring today v. a reasonably poor defensive Brisbane, who are allowing a shot every 1.87 entries into their 50. (3rd worst, behind Port and Richmond). It should be a fast, free flowing game, so good chance of the over hitting, and almost no chance of it being under 172 I wouldn't think. Mate, we could be the first AFL team to forfeit next week!!

[matjnewton]

Re: AFL - Round 9 Hey good call on the undrs/overs. I'm pretty happy with my one call this week!! I should just stick to the Saints games! Re: last year, Saints only started firing the week after they lost to Essendon. Which was.. round 12? They're following last year quite accurately this year - very spooky - and after the game today next week will be hard to call, whatever happens to Melbourne at Subi. (Half time at time of post.) Mat.