AFL - Round 6

[Ashtee]

Event	Brisbane v Sydney
Selection	Sydney -5.5
Strength	10/10
Date	07/05/2006
Bookmaker/Price	Pinnacle Sports @ 1.92 (Back)
Reasoning	Sydney did defeat a weakened Geelong but in good style and following them closely since the pre-season I now feel they are primed for a return to form. The psyche should now be nicely recharged, so this is certainly not a let down situation and a sizeable win looks likely. Brisbane may even put up a good fight but they simply don’t have the cattle and I would be prepared to take on more points than this. Increased stake.

[TazaD]

Re: AFL - Round 6 Was the game that stood out the most for me too, Ashtee. One small thing does concern me tho, is that Sydney won by 6 up there last year in Rd. 3, but had 4 less shots...and Brown didn't play for the Lions. Of course we can say that this years Lions team aren't what they used to be (for sure!), but they started horribly last year too... ...in fact they were dead last after 5 rounds with 1 win. I do absolutely believe that Sydney are better this Brisbane team in all area's, but there's just something not quite right about this one for me. :\ Hope I'm wrong. I reckon I'll play it safe this week... West Coast/Adelaide/Collingwood treble @ 2.35ish. Do like West Coast -17.5 tho, and might play that aswell. Other than that, there look to be some tight games coming up. Not convinced about the Dogs @ 1.85 (although 1.95 @ Pinnacle I see...actually 1.90 now I check @ Centrebet too) Depending on who they get back this week, Geelong should be too strong for Melbourne, but definately waiting for the teams.

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL - Round 6 Yeah, Bris led by 5-goals 3/4-time and lost a couple runners last qtr atop of a few out. However Sydney were off an injury restricted pre-season themselves and and it wasn't till round-7 or so that they began to hit their straps. All this is perhaps why Bris are being rated a good chance and I just think it deserves to be looked at afresh and that a goal should be an easy cover. I'm probably going to play the dogs with 1.95 available. A double whammy situation bothers me a little but I also feel Saints are an overated team ATM. I do also think Adelaide and Collingwood are overs and the market on West Coast is about right.

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL - Round 6 By the looks of things the Sydney h'cap is presently being belted, with -5.5 unlikely to last.

[TazaD]

Re: AFL - Round 6 Collingwood, West Coast, Adelaide (2.37) Three teams that should be far too strong for their opposition. Fremantle and Port Adelaide are very over-rated teams, playing probably the two best teams in the AFL. Collingwood are still not getting enough respect after a poor finish to last season. They are a quality side and Carlton are a genuine bottom four team. West Coast -16.5 For some reason Fremantle still get way too much respect. Although they have won 3 games this season so far, they have all been against what I consider poor opposition, and the 11 point loss to Adelaide should have been much, much more. West Coast are a genuine top 2 team, are 5-0 this season, 4 wins by more than 17 points. They have won the last 3 meetings by 48, 8 (but 8 more shots, should have been a lot bigger margin) and 48 points. Nothing has changed in my mind, in fact if anything, the West Coast forward line is performing better now than last season.

[robby]

Re: AFL - Round 6 The main bet in the Melbourne v Geelong game for me is for Geelong to win the first quarter. Geelong is averaging 4.(3.2) and Melbourne are averaging (2.8).(2.8). Part of that is because of a 5.5 first quarter bashin' on the Bulldogs in Round 2, a bashing on a team who are very slow to start, going 1-4 this year - beating Richmond. So Melbourne's averages are slightly inflated, whereas Geelong has been consistent over the past 5 rounds. Not a bad feat considering all of the injury concerns. Even if you consider the returning players as a fitness/lack of game time liability - they've been doing it without them anyways. 10/10 @ 1.75 on Betfair on Geelong to win the 1st. 3/10 on Geelong to win ht/ft @ 2 on Betfair .

[robby]

Re: AFL - Round 6 +4.5pts I'm going back against the dogs in the quartertime result. As mentioned previously, they're 1-4 in the previous 5 rounds, only beating Richmond. Kilda aren't that flash, but do come in at 3-2. One of the losses was when Gehrig was out, so I'll back the Saints at fulltime. The dogs have a fantastic record as of late at Telstra, I can't see that changing today - so I'm using a small margin on the dogs win. Lots of emotion in this game so I won't go to heavy. Rebound for the dogs, dramas in the Saints game - both will come into this strong. 10/10 Saints on quartertime result @ 1.93 3/10 dogs at fulltime @ 2.24 Both odds over at betfair

[robby]

Re: AFL - Round 6 +13.8pts with the dogs result in play Back to the quarter time results. Freeo with all of its dramas are 4-1 in the QT results this year, only losing to the Crows. The Eagles finally won the first QT result last week barely against the Lions. Judd taking control in the final 2 minutes brought the Eagles on top. QT odds reflect the winning margin pretty well. 1.52/2.56 I'm going to take Freemantle @ QT. Smaller odds compared to the first two because of the dramas on last week, and this being the WA rival clash. 6/10 on Freeo to take the QT @ 2.56 3/10 on Freeo + 18.5 @ 1.9

[robby]

Re: AFL - Round 6 +20.16 pts with the eagles game in play The dons are tremendous when it comes to first quarters going 4-1. However, in that 4-1 they are 156-95 in points. I haven't looked yet to see if there they are in top of % points won in the first quarter, but I'd bet it would be really close. Wallace has been known to build match ups on the fly, rather than before the game. Richmond, 1-4 only beating a lax Eagles at QT would signify that fact. Even though I'm a Richmond supporter, I think the dons will win. However, I'm a little worried about how the dons will hold up in the second half considering this is the 3rd game in 11 days. So, I'm going to use the dons win as a cover for a dons/richmond ht/ft result. The ht/ft is more hope than anything else, but I can't see the Tigers leading at the half. 10/10 on the dons to win at QT @ 1.85 4/10 on the dons to win @ 1.74 3/10 on dons/richmond @ 7.8

[robby]

Re: AFL - Round 6 +22.76 pts with the tigers picks in play Well, to answer my previous question, no the Crows has a higher percentage in the first by far. The Crows are 4-1 only losing to the Pies in the first round. Port while 3-2 had quarter wins against a slow Roos and a poor Sydney. I can't see anything but the Crows taking the first quarter, even if 1.5 is a bit low. 10/10 on the Crows to win at QT @ 1.50 3/10 on the Crows to win under 39.9 @ 2.2

[robby]

Re: AFL - Round 6 :loon 5 for 5 on the QT woohoo! Richmond up by 2 at the half, so the ht/ft is out. Screw the points, go Tigers!

[robby]

Re: AFL - Round 6 Just to make a quick recap, Tigers managed to get the third ugly game go their way. That last 5 minutes was shocking by the dons. I didn't see the dons/hawthorn game but didn't they implode in that one as well? Had a look at my AFL betting history after my collapse at the end of last weekend and noticed that I tend to do better in QT betting than I do anywhere else. I'll admit on the QT, there is some luck involved. Though if all that I bet on the past two days was QT, I'd be up 39.66 pts.:rollin Sadly, my other picks have brought me down 26.36pts :lol