AFL - Round 3

[Ashtee]

Event	Port Adelaide v Fremantle
Selection	Fremantle
Strength	7/10
Date	16/04/2006
Bookmaker/Price	Centrebet @ 3.60 (Back)
Reasoning	Um … backing Fremantle in this. The market seems based on some unreliable results and that Tredrea and Wanganeen could return from injury. Two huge names, obviously! Tredrea may be better for the hit-out and certainly Wanganeen will still be short on preparation. Brogan is also some doubt, while Fremantle virtually have a full list. Exposed for midfield grunt by the Roos then the easy win over Sydney, but honestly, they had the bye such was Sydney’s non-input. Obviously there is concern regarding the Fremantle coaching status and I hold the belief that the issue is affecting player morale. A serious loss to Hawthorn then had Carlton beat by half time but failed to push the game out, much to the fury of many h’cap punters. I know of some who took them on a “one last chance†basis. I’ve been shy of them since they scalded me in the NAB Cup. However, now we see them at 3.60 in a ‘two horse race’. They are on 8-days rest. Player for player I rate them the fitter-better team. Were beaten for contested possesion in Rd-22 ‘05 AAMI after leading at half time, but I do feel Fremantle is suited by Port’s style of play. Fine weather ahead. My rating: Port 8/13, so I have no hesitation in taking the price on offer.<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" />

[TazaD]

Re: AFL - Round 3 2 very unpredictable teams for me Ashtee...I agree it's a big price, but I think the your first sentence sums it up! ...Good luck mate. Looks an interesting week for me... ...Reckon I'll be on St. Kilda/Brisbane 'under' whatever it may be... ...Other than that, Collingwood look over the odds again @ 1.85! Will take Geelong -40.5 and/or Richmond +48.5 is I can get those numbers or better.

[TazaD]

Re: AFL - Round 3 Geelong -40.5 (2.00 Pinnacle) The Cats are one of the genuine Premiership contenders this season, and Hawthorn, well, aren't! As mentioned last week, Geelong have won 9 of their last 11 at home, by an av of 41 points. The last tie Hawthorn played @ Geelong was in 2004, and they were beaten by 65 points. Geelong won the only meeting last year at the Dome by 55 points, with 15 more scoring shots. Geelong have started the season brilliantly with 2 wins of 77 and 69 points, and while Hawthorn have one win, it was against a poor travelling Fremantle who have had no success at the ground...they were beatenb by 35 pointys by a middle of the road Collingood last week after being completely over-run in the second half. Large spread, but not large enough.

[TazaD]

Re: AFL - Round 3 St. Kilda v. Brisbane under 194.5 (2.50) Well, I guess you people are all sick of me saying it by now...but what the hell...St. Kilda don't score well without Kositski in the team! Also Ball out loses a bit of drive out of the middle. Just one of St. Kilda's last 8 games spanning back to last season have gone over this number, and they have scored 100+ only twice in that time. Just 66 and 88 v. a terrible Richmond last week at the dome this season. Now, admittedly one of those 2 games was a 186-47 belting of Brisbane in Rd. 22 last season, but 1) Brisbane were playing out the season with a LOT of young players; and 2) It was revenge time for the Riewoldt incident earlier in the year. Their defense has been superb tho, allowing just 74 ppg in their last 10. Brisbane were 'on' last week, but will struggle to score without Brown dominating every week...and Bradshaw will likely be down back, so looks like a low scorer to me.

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL - Round 3 Good reasons Taza, and considering the average score for all games in 2005 was 191 (St.k 191.5, Bris 196), then 2.50 looks a nice price indeed. These two are on five and six days rest respectively, so will be interesting to see if things slow a little late in the game. I've got a theory that as unpredictable as they are, the Port v Freo game will be won by one of those two :lol . So 3.60 Freo is an absolute steal IMO, win, lose or draw. Quite obviously a Freo at low odds should be avoided though. :hope

[davidmphill]

Re: AFL - Round 3 Nice going lads. Not a sport know much of despite watching Freemantle when I was last Down Under 3 years ago! Good luck.

[robby]

Re: AFL - Round 3 Well a very uneasy first quarter - @ 71 pts. Needing to stay lower than 48.5 a quarter to get the under. Good second though. 26. So at the half we're exactly half way to the 194. Exciting 2nd half coming up!

Nice going lads. Not a sport know much of despite watching Freemantle when I was last Down Under 3 years ago! Good luck.

Sorry!

[robby]

Re: AFL - Round 3 Down to 30 @ 3 qtr time:unsure

[robby]

Re: AFL - Round 3 Damn, I hate it when teams don't follow tradition. Well, I married into being a Richmond fan, and at least I can say we should win at least two with what I've seen tonight ;)

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL - Round 3

Event	Kangaroos v Collingwood
Selection	Collingwood
Strength	7/10
Date	17/04/2006
Bookmaker/Price	Pinnacle Sports @ 1.96 (Back)
Reasoning	Kangaroos have been strongly backed (2.10 into 2.00) but I believe the books were near the mark originally. Collingwood have the stronger line-up IMO and it should also be noted that Kangaroos have entered the season not quite as forward in condition as previously. While Collingwood may be a step down in opponent to Geelong, they should prove tougher than Port, who the Kangaroos beat in Rd-1 and shouldn’t find it so easy ‘underneath’ as they did that night. Admittedly Collingwood were handed some favours last week (Rocca v Dawson) but I also feel they are working into some nice momentum. Collingwood to win in a good contest. My rating: 8/11.

[TazaD]

Re: AFL - Round 3 Collingwood (1.95) Huh? What have I missed? Do people not rate Collingwood, or are people still a bit dubious about betting against the Kangas? Last season the Kangaroos won by just 3 points, as 1.60 favs, despite having 2 less shots, 10 less inside 50's and 8 less clearances!!! (And the 'Pies were without Buckley) They won the second meeting by 6 points as 1.28 favs, with Rocca and Tarrant out. Yeah, yeah...they try hard, whatever...they just aren't very good, and it's tough to see them kicking enough goals to worry Collingwood in this one. I forgot to post this yesterday...nice one Ash. St. Kilda, ay!...Their midfield doesn't kick goals...10 goal kickers later says they bloody do!!...They didn't need to start last night :( Bit dubious about Geelong now too...rain and wind forecast could tighten the game right up. On the other hand it does further strengthen their home ground advantage. Hopefully it won't be too bad. Given we've now seen Sydney and Brisbane's "true" form, I think the Dogs -10.5 is a pretty strong bet now to.

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL - Round 3 What else to do on Good Friday than sit in front of the computer all day. :dude Can't recall the last time a team on a five day break won. Melb got within 15 of WCE last year but invariably teams seem to find it too hard, both physically and mental prep. Hard to always tell on the tv but there seemed less flooding last night and I wonder if that was related to the shorter rest. Bris don't do a hell of alot anyway, I think. Didn't help that Mathews left a kid on their gorillas. Havn't fancied Brisbanes top-8 prospects from the start. Scribes seem to hold onto reputation when a team still has half a premiership side. Carlton have half a side of premiership quality players also IMO. I'm of the opinion that adverse conditions at Geelong often helps their winning margin. Don't think it's looking too bad though. Raining now and I'm an hour from Geelong but think it's expected to fine up isn't it?? I've been tempted to try the Dons this week. They seem to match up well on WBD wheras they don't match up well on Bris IMO. Beat the dogs last year when they tackled hard early. Eade should be ready for that this time and apparently has used the dogs poor record (over Ess) as a motivating tool this week. Thought Melb's lack of condition contributed last week after out grunting WBD in first half. A couple of bombers have been a little off colour through the week and this has swayed me enough (so far) to not give them a try at 2.50 . Dogs might be better switched on this week tho, as I eluded to they didn't look 'on' early against Melb. Watching Bris v Ess I did feel I was looking at two bottom-8 teams? Perhaps the dogs time to win over Ess so I couldn't argue with those who like them, especially at the -10.5 rather than SU. I'll remain on the fence with this one for the time being.

[TazaD]

Re: AFL - Round 3 Tell me about Good Friday, Ash!!...The sooner we get a game of footy the better!! 11 NBA games, a Super 14 and NRL game each...yet AFL??...anyway...rant over... (Had a couple of them today now! :D) Dogs?...Yeah, like I said, I was at the game last week and they weren't on at all early. Had something silly like only 38 marks at HT...They just weren't hitting targets like 'usual' (for them anyway)...Players who usually run all day (Eagleton stood out) seemed to be only going at 50%. ...a bit hard to say exactly what happened later...I got the distict impression that the Dogs were far fitter, but having said that, I helped massively that White spent most of the second half on the bench for no apparent reason. Melbourne were edging the centre breaks in the first half, but were completely out-gunned in the second. Having said all that, yes, Essendon do have a great record against the Dogs lately...But Melbourne had beaten them 8 of the last 9 too... ...I just think that it will be more of the same. Close early, but the Dogs will have too much pace/run for the likes of Camporeale, Watson, an under-done Peverill and Hird, Johnson and Johnson aren't fit...Hille out is a big relief for them too...Hard to see Ryder/Bolton hurting them much in the middle. Really do like the Doggies -10.5 I think. Just a bit more on the Collingwood/Kanga game....I watched last years rd. 19 meeting again today... ...Not only did Collingwood have Rocca and Tarrrant out...Fraser was out too, leaving Fanning and Jason Cloke rucking all day!!...and...Buckley was about 70% fit and spend all day at FF...and...Wakelin was about 40%! Had a HUGE strap on his groin, not to mention he landed on his head early ion the third...and...Didak spent the whole second half off with an injury!!...AND...Collingwood were still 18 points up with 3 minutes to play after Fanning and Buckley both missed reasonably easy shots...The Kangas somehow managed 4 very late goals to pinch it. The more I look, the more it stands out as bet of the week.

[matjnewton]

Re: AFL - Round 3 Just a re: Pies v. Kangaroos. I reckon Pies odds will be shorter every match they play than they warrant due to the emotional bet - I mean, having such a big and loyal fanbase.

[TazaD]

Re: AFL - Round 3 I know what you are saying mat, but I think it's a bit the other way with Collingwood right now. Before last week they had lost 9 straight games (going back to last season obviously), but we know that 4/5 of their best players were either out or strugling with injury. Now they are all back up and firing they are a legitimate top 8 team...but I think they are still seen as the 'losers' from the end of last season. Sure, fifty thousand Collingwood supporters putting $20 each on them each week will bring the price in slightly, but I think the more serious money will always out-weigh the 'fun' bets of the week. Bulldogs -11.5 Moving out to -12.5 and bevond here in Australia now. For all of the reasons above, I think the Dogs get it done in the Dome again. Waite out for Carlton tonight, but I really do think Sydney are struggling more than most people realise...The Blues are a real shot here...+13.5 looks a lot of points...

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL - Round 3 Yes, Kangas continue to trim up. Note Collingwood very short at the TAB which is where most of the mug money usually goes and I'd imagine weight of Colingwood supporters could influence that. Serious books generally arn't influenced IMO. As Taza explained I think the price is being affected because people are overateing finishing positions from previous year and also are trying to be too clever about the Rocca v Dawson occurance. The fact is a dominant collingwood midfield had a big bearing on that. Disapointing Cats caught lazy today off some perhaps too perfect form and a very nice price of 3.60 available on Hawks at half time. Pretty difficult to change mind-set mid game in my view.

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL - Round 3 I notice a lot of people around the forums jumping at the Kangaroos. Collingwood incredibly now out to 2.03 at Pinnacle, but Kangaroos still 2.00 at Bet365 so I arbed myself a better price. Even better if you have a SportsInterAction account. They still have the roos at 2.05

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL - Round 3 Taza, tell me you had the cold hard on WBD at the 10.5!! And something on the Tigers & Blues spreads. :eek Hate it when things go like that. Gotta land right tomorrow ... surely! :hope

[TazaD]

Re: AFL - Round 3 No mate... ...Here's how my weekend of betting has gone... Saints/Brisbane 'under' lost easily, but not too upset, thought it was a reasonable bet. Geelong...PUMPED! Never in the hunt, as you said. Didn't bet on Carlton, despite tipping them to win. Didn't bet on Richmond...def. should have grabbed the +47.5 early in the week, too scared when they were +40.5 at game time. Saw the weather at Carrara and had a small tickle on the 'under' figuring the Crows aren't the highest scoring team in the league anyway... Saw the Dogs -10.5 on Friday, but in the time it took for me to log in and deposit some $ they had moved out to 11.5... ...still, given that Murphy missed an absolute sitter with about 2 minutes left (the last shot on goal in the game), and Smith missed everything about a minute earlier from about 35 out (when obviously a point would have done)...AND, Essendon's last goal came from a TERRIBLY BAD umpiring decision late in the game....It wasn't necessaily the spread's fault! :@ Oh, and all week I was going to have a dabble on the HT/FT of Ess/Dogs, as I figured Essendon would bounce out, but the Dogs would over-run them...forgot all about it. Very tempted to take Collingwood -24.5 today @ 3.50...but given my form, you know what will happen then. :wall

[TazaD]

Re: AFL - Round 3 A 3.50+ winner each then in the end, Ash. Makes up for a ordinary (if slightly unlucky) weekend for me. Great week for yourself mate. Premature I know, but I suspect in a 'tight' looking week next week there could well be some betting bargains...(so the odds will be very interesting indeed)... Hawthorn have shown themselves to be a decent team...Carlton likelky without Fevola and Lappin (early days yet obviously), but I hope Carlton's "strong" performance against a crap Sydney will boost their price. Would love to get the Hawks as 'dogs. I'll say right here, right now, that the Bulldogs will beat Geelong next week. Everyone will be expecting a 'bounce back', but things happen for reasons...No Scarlett or Harley down back hurts...they struggle to kick goals when Kingsley is being held, and Harris is very quickly becoming one of the best FB's in the league. Hopefully Playfair will still be out...while he's hardly a marque player, he is very important to their forward structure. King likely out too...Minson out for the Dogs but Street to lumber back in...again,would love to see the Dogs as 'dogs! Collingwood will pump Essendon, but I suspect they will be favs after today. Melbourne are a MASSIVE chance to get a win @ Sydney, and will definately be taking the points on offer there!! ...But that's all a week away! :D

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL - Round 3 Bagged two winners at 3.60 in the end, jumping on Hawks at half time, so was a good week. Still not sure who won the Collingwood game though as was watching on black and white TV :unsure. Good bounce back today for you Taza. Here, have one of these :beer, you may need it. Well done but thought it a bit weak you didn't take the pies at -39.5 :lol:lol:lol :ok. Pinnacle just kept laying and laying them. SP 2.04 there. Sure pays to do the homework. Yes, very similar thoughts about next week. Scarlett is an absolute boulder down back. I was having a look just then and both Hawks and Dogs should have clear edge in quality, bit weary of Cats bouncing back tho catching dogs on 6-day. Looks a number of promising betting scenarios coming up with teams travelling consecutive weeks, how Sydney will be viewed, etc.

[TazaD]

Re: AFL - Round 3 I did have a look at the -39.5 mate...was 5.20!...and yeah, was very tempted indeed. Hawthorn at HT was a great pick...I thought Geelong would still win right up until the 5 minute mark of the last when the Hawks really started running away! Nice one. I've just jotted down a few quick thoughts on next weeks games, but I'll start a new thread I think...