Snooker: World Championships

[kevshat]

Re: Snooker: World Championships - Early thoughts..

Matthew Stevens at 16's isn't a bad EW bet seeing as he's been in the last 2 finals.

He's got a tough one to overcome in the 1st round in Joe Swail who is as hard to beat in these long matches as they come. Swail has been a semi finalist here twice and if he beats Stevens he'll probably fancy his chances again with the draw. I'm not sure whether Swail will beat Stevens but he will certainly be one of the best handicap bets of the 1st round.

[Sir Puntalot]

Re: Snooker: World Championships - Early thoughts..

150/1 on Alan McManus :eek I dont follow the snooker that much so im not sure what kinda form hes in, probably poor going by the price but he is an experienced player who has done well here in the past and wont be scared of playing anyone. Only a small each way bet but its sounds good value to me.

I'll be blunt - no chance mate, leave well alone. :ok

[alan partridge]

Re: Snooker: World Championships - Early thoughts.. Ok Paul thanks for the info, il keep it for another of my rubbish picks.:lol

[sensibleboy]

Re: Snooker: World Championships - Early thoughts.. Not long to go now people. Im just realising how much I love the World Championships. Cannot wait. :cow

[paulphi]

Re: Snooker: World Championships - Early thoughts.. Just thought I'd share my thinking with you all:- I've been looking at some stats/ form etc. Betting with my head I would be very surprised if Murphy does not make at least the semis. (My heart will always throw away a couple of quid on Jimmy) You can take your pick from the 2nd quarter which looks like a lottery (maybe winner of Doherty vs Hawkins). 3rd quarter I would have some risky money on the gritty Dott. He loves the long game and never gives up. 4th quarter , I agree will be winner of Higgins Williams. All this is ok on paper , but if Ronnie has brought his 'A' game then it's his to lose. I would sensibly watch the 1st round before parting with any cash. (apart from the Higgins banker over Selby (1/6 with Hills)

[mrmuzeman]

Re: Snooker: World Championships - Early thoughts.. Can anyone elighten me as to the form of Hendry (10/1) and Murphy (7/1)going into this tourny, cheers :ok Ive gota have a punt on Stevens at 16/1 after backing him the last 2 years, always seems to give you a run for your money.

[kevshat]

Re: Snooker: World Championships - Early thoughts..

Can anyone elighten me as to the form of Hendry (10/1) and Murphy (7/1)going into this tourny, cheers :ok Ive gota have a punt on Stevens at 16/1 after backing him the last 2 years, always seems to give you a run for your money.

Murphy's not set the World alight this season. He's only made 1 final which he lost to Stephen lee in Wales and Stephen Hendry hasn't fared much better either to be honest. Hendry hasn't made 1 final all season.

[sensibleboy]

Re: Snooker: World Championships - Early thoughts.. I couldnt back Hendry nowadays on the outright markets. Much better to see how he plays the first couple of rounds first as he can play very well these days but also can play awful.

[kevshat]

Re: Snooker: World Championships - Early thoughts..

I couldnt back Hendry nowadays on the outright markets. Much better to see how he plays the first couple of rounds first as he can play very well these days but also can play awful.

You know he'll be near his best in Sheffield, he always is but unfortunately for him his best isn't as far clear of the rest as it used to be. I don't think he'll come through the bottom half of the draw.

[Sir Puntalot]

Re: Snooker: World Championships - Early thoughts.. Not just saying it because I have at 25/1 and now he's as low as 10/1, but I think the man to beat is Mark Williams this year. He's fearless and has hit form bang on time, as well as being fresh as a daisy mentally after his very poor start to the season. :ok I also think Murphy is no value whatsoever. Some people will laugh at the crucible curse, but think back when Steve Davis got beat 10-1 to Tony Knowles, Hendry lost to Steve James after being 11-9 up - the pressure is immense and I think Wattana could well take Murphy out first round.

[Mullahoran]

Re: Snooker: World Championships - Early thoughts.. Personally i don't see Williams taking the title this year. That bottom half of the draw is very tough and will take alot of whoever reaches the final on that side. If i was going to to try and predict the finalists i would go for Higgins against Doherty with Higgins taking the title but Doherty could just as easy go out in the first round where it will be a very close match v Hawkins.

[ZuluWarrior]

Re: Snooker: World Championships - Early thoughts.. I've noticed that the winner of the world championship hasn't crashed out on the first round for 5 years (didn't go further back). Now I totally agree with Paul's reasoning (;) ) but to play the advocate... Murphy does have the right attitude, I saw something in the last couple of weeks (sorry for the vauge source) with a Murphy interview and while I don't think he is a world beater I do rate his attitude to this championship and I think I'd have to say that he'll beat Wattana, and if thats the case the draw opens up nicely for him. I can see Murphy having a good first week myself. However, once we get down to real money, I find myself faultering. With such 'heavies' as Paul Ross and Kevshat Laying Murphys first round chances, I'd be taking a big fat NO BET!* ZuluWarrior * That's a lie, as this is the only match to complete on Saturday, I'm putting a couple of £ on Murphy, but low stakes here, perhaps just a bet to jinx him :)

[Sir Puntalot]

Re: Snooker: World Championships - Early thoughts..

Personally i don't see Williams taking the title this year. That bottom half of the draw is very tough and will take alot of whoever reaches the final on that side. If i was going to to try and predict the finalists i would go for Higgins against Doherty with Higgins taking the title but Doherty could just as easy go out in the first round where it will be a very close match v Hawkins.

I agree he has a tough draw, but so do all the others in his half (obviously). He didn't have it particularly easy the year he first won it either. I can't say I have ever been as confident about somebody winning the title as I am this year for a long time. I really do think Williams has so much more in the tank having had such a poor start to the season, and he fears nobody, in fact he'll love playing Ronnie or Higgins and it is between them 3 for the title imo. ;)

[davidmphill]

Re: Snooker: World Championships Stevens has a nice draw and always seems to do well here in Sheffield. Has a good record and with the strength in the other half I fancy Stevens to have another good run this year. Stevens 1pt each way @ 17 ladbrokes 1/2 odds 12

[Sir Puntalot]

Re: Snooker: World Championships

Stevens has a nice draw and always seems to do well here in Sheffield. Has a good record and with the strength in the other half I fancy Stevens to have another good run this year. Stevens 1pt each way @ 17 ladbrokes 1/2 odds 12

I think he's damaged goods now Dave, I really do. :( If you don't win the WC in your first 2 real attempts (semis/final), it get harder and harder and I think he could well go down the Jimmy route now. :sad

[kevshat]

Re: Snooker: World Championships

I think he's damaged goods now Dave, I really do. :( If you don't win the WC in your first 2 real attempts (semis/final), it get harder and harder and I think he could well go down the Jimmy route now. :sad

His results would suggest he spends more time playing poker than snooker too! I still maintain that Swail will be a great handicap bet in that match.

[davidmphill]

Re: Snooker: World Championships

I think he's damaged goods now Dave, I really do. :( If you don't win the WC in your first 2 real attempts (semis/final), it get harder and harder and I think he could well go down the Jimmy route now. :sad

Fair point Paul, I just believe he has a good draw and can go well. Love to see Mark Williams win it again.

[ZuluWarrior]

Re: Snooker: World Championships Here's my selections for the 1st round, but first some picks that I'm not betting on due to the short odds: Hendry to beat Bond O'Sullivan to beat Harold Higgins to beat Selby (this one might make an accumulator thought) Select-a! Now for the selections proper... 10pts - McManus v Fu - 1.73 @ TotalBet McManus is not an on form player, but if you look at the season Alan is progressing further than Fu in every tornament this year bar the UK masters and Grand prix where he was knocked out at the same stage. McManus is being beeten by the likes of Higgins, Hendry and Milkins whereas Fu is bowing to oppositions like Drew Henry and Maguire. At odds l.73 @ totalbet, it's well worth a punt. 10pts - Doherty v Hawkins - 1.68 @ Pinnical Now Hawkins is playing well at the moment, but Doherty's being consistant, this season Ken's won 1 title, 1 Semi, 1 Quarter and 3 2nd round exits. Compare that to Hawkins 2 Semis and a 2nd round exit. Hawkins has hade some luck this year with the draws, whereas Doherty is consistantly beating good opposition only being beaten by Higgins, Hamilton and Murphy lately 10pts - Lee v Carter - 1.75 @ Pinnical Lee's won the Welsh open, got a quarter, a semi and 3 1st round exits, Carters got a quarter final and 2 1st round exits. Plus the fact that Lee's a much better player, I can't see why the odds are as high as they are. A clear 9 places seperated these players on last years scores and with Lee provisionally making places and Carter (just about) treading water. Also Lee's best perfomances have been in the latter half of the season (beating Maguire, Wattana, Murphy, Dott (twice) and Hamilton), with Carter not nearly so impressive with only Ebdon, Cope and McManus beaten, all in the early season. Carter hasn't beaten anyone really since the UK Champs, his best performance being a 1st round exit in Malta against McManus. Speculate to accumulate A few of you know by now I like the 1st rounds, as I like to have a bit of a flutter on some accumulatortype bets. So in the interests of information sharing here's my accumulator selections for the 1st Round, please bear in mind though these are brief on reasoning and may be quite long shots (I'm aiming to get 1 accum out of 5 to break even, and I got one in China, so thats 1 in 3 so far...): Selections in bold... 3pts - 7 selection accumulator - Total odds 8.93 @ Pinnical A nice long shot here, some reasoning but mostly going off my gut, and what I've learned from watching the last few torneys closely. Higgins v Selby - 1.17 Higgins is an obvious choice, runner up against Williams LTO, a string of good performances all year, low, low odds though Williams v Hamilton - 1.40 Tornament winner LTO (China), as said before finding great form at the right time. Hendry v Bond - 1.14 Hendry is a world class player, firmly seated in the top 3 both last year and provisionally, Bond is a medeochre opposition at best, another low odds though Stevens v Swail - 1.43 Not much in these 2, although the bookies are clearly favouring Stevens. This years wrap tells another story though, with Swail performing much better LTO (China). I think if Stevens can get the mental bit right he can easily beat Swail though. better odds (1.44) at b365, but better odds on this accum from pinnical. Lee v Carter - 1.75 Reasoning as stated above.... Maguire v King - 1.47 This ones all about the long term talent gap, Maguire steamed up the ranking last year and is holding in the top 8, while King's been dropping steadily. Better odds (1.50) at Wills but for the sake of the accumulator Dott v Parrott - 1.30 Parrotts past it, but I think Dott's got something left in him. Dott beat Parrott in Malta this year (1st round). Parrotts crashed out on or before 1st round last 5 tornaments wheres Dotts made 2 quarter and 1 semi final exit Last 3 times out. 8pts (2pts X 4) - Trebles over 4 selections @ Pinnical This one I've gone for trebles, so that if I get 1 wrong I'll lose between 2pts-0.5pts whereas the clean sheet gives a solid profit... All reasoning for these is as above in either my singles selections or the accumulator... Maguire v King - 1.47 Stevens v Swail - 1.43 Doherty v Hawkins - 1.68 McManus v Fu - 1.72 Well, if your still reading, good for you! 1 more thing before I shut up. During my analysis I managed to pull up a winner for every match, so for those interested in how good or bad a tipster I am with snooker, here's the list, those in italics are selections that I am not going to bet on, confidence out of 10 in brackets: (10)Higgins, (10)Williams, (10)McManus, (9)Hendry, (9)O'Sullivan, (8)Lee, (8)Doherty, (8)Murphy, (7)Maguire, (6)Stevens, (5)Dott, (4)Perry, (3)Gray, (2)Ebdon, (2)Hicks, (1)Robertson Well, what a doozie of a post, my fingers ache! Thats it for me for the 1st round. Put a good weeks work into my picks here, lets hope it's not waisted work... As always I look forward to your comments and critisism of my selections... ZuluWarrior

[TheRat]

Re: Snooker: World Championships http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/other_sports/snooker/draw_predictor/default.stm :tongue2

[kevshat]

Re: Snooker: World Championships About time I get my outrights up on here! 3pts ew K.Doherty 20/1 Betfred I honestly believe Doherty is playing his best snooker since taking this title 9 years ago, having won the Malta Cup this season he'll be full of confidence and there's nobody in the top half of the draw that would scare him. It may just be that his hardest game on route to the semis and final could be his opener against Hawkins. Whilst that was the draw I least wanted I can't desert the Irishman. 1pt ew N.Robertson 50/1 Stan James If a qualifier is to win this again then Robertson would be a good bet to be the one. He's definitely going to have a good future but he's not bad at the present either. He's troubled all the top names this season already and is one who'll fancy his chances again anyone. He has what looks like a bye in the 1st round which will also help and he can go well at a decentish price. 0.5pt ew S.Davis 150/1 Stan James 0.5pt ew J.Wattana 175/1 Bet365 The top quarter of the draw here is very weak indeed. Top seed in the quarter is Shaun Murphy who I'm seriously not keen on and the other seeds are Davis, Jimmy White and Peter Ebdon. Of those 3 only Davis has shown any sort of form with his run in the UK Championships. A repeat of that form may well be good enough to take Davis to the semis. Given the weak line up in this section of the draw I'm going to have to go for arguably the most in form player of the 8 in James Wattana. The Thai looked in good nick on route to the quarters in the Welsh Open and then confirmed that form with a 5-0 drubbing of Ronnie O'Sullivan out in China. He's been to the semis in Sheffield in the past and ok he has to take out the defending champion in the 1st round but that's not beyond him and we could get a decent run out of the Thai at a very nice price.

[Feizal Rahman]

Re: Snooker: World Championships 2006 World Snooker Championship The 2005/06 snooker season has been blighted by a reduced schedule of only six ranking tournaments and a lack of prize money owing to the prohibition of tobacco sponsorship. Possibly as a consequence of this, many of snooker's big names have struggled to perform this season and few will travel to Sheffield in confident mood. One major name who has taken advantage of his adversaries' lack of form has been John Higgins who goes into the World Championships on the back of a Grand Prix win at Preston in October and a Masters win at Wembley in January. Higgins also finished runner-up in the Malta Cup and China Open. However, since his debut Crucible win in 1998, Higgins has failed to regain the title managing only one other final, two semi-finals and two quarter-finals. The last two appearances at the Crucible have seen the Scot fail to progress further than the second round, though Higgins had attributed this to the burden of fatherhood. As the only major name to have any sort of consistency this season, Higgins looks to have his best chance yet to claim a second World Championship title. The mental state of 5/2 favourite Ronnie O'Sullivan has yet again come into doubt in the lead-up to this tournament and the the two-time champion has even advised punters to avoid backing him this year. The Rocket has won the two World finals he has reached, yet this is far from an impressive statistic for an individual who is widely considered to be the most talented player ever. O'Sullivan's only ranking tournament final appearances this season were in the Grand Prix and the Masters, where Higgins beat him on both occasions, otherwise his form has been well below-par. Should he make it as far, O'Sullivan is drawn to meet Higgins in the quarter-finals and can be expected to lose to the in-form Scotsman. The semi-final would then most likely see Higgins go up against fellow Scot, and seven times champion, Stephen Hendry who has only two semi-final appearances of note this season and is unlikely to pose as significant a threat as previous years. One major obstacle for Higgins beforehand could be a probable second round encounter with two-time champion Mark Williams. The Welshman is yet another who has struggled for any sort of consistency this season, though he did win the China Open in which he beat Higgins 9-8 in the final. Though other than that victory, Williams has failed to make the last four of any other tournament. With the major names in the bottom half of the draw all desperately absent of any winning form and also the lack of any realistic outside chances, Higgins can be taken to make it to the final and should be backed to win at 9/2 and to place at 5/2 with Betfair. The top half of the draw looks far more open with several players who have chances at decent prices. The top seed and last year's champion Shaun Murphy is sure to be aware that no first time Crucible champion has ever retained his title the following year and Ken Doherty remains the only debut winner to have even made the final the year after. Since his surprise victory last year, Murphy has failed to win any other ranking tournament and reached only one other final, that of the Welsh Open which he lost 9-4 to Stephen Lee. The affable Yorkshireman can be laid to reach this year's final at around 11/4 on Betfair. The most likely candidate to deny Murphy a final appearance looks to be Peter Ebdon, who is drawn to meet the reigning title-holder in the quarter-finals. The 2002 champion has struggled like many this season but is one who tends to save his best performances for Sheffield. Should he make it to the Semi's, Ebdon is drawn to face one of Matthew Stevens or Stephen Maguire - neither of whom has made the final of a ranking tournament this season. Stevens, however, always performs well at the Crucible having made the final twice and the semi's on three occasions. With an accrued reputation of lacking the nerve to win a World Final, Stevens may see this year as his best chance of a victory with so many top names under-performing and he can go one step further than last year and prove the doubters wrong. However, should Ken Doherty make it past a tough opener against Barry Hawkins, the Welshman will face the 1997 champion in the second round. Doherty has had a good season thus far beating John Higgins 9-8 in the final of the Malta Cup, though the Wizard of Wishaw got his revenge with a semi-final win in the China Open. Doherty's best other finish was a quarter-final in the UK Championship at York, where finalist Steve Davis beat him 9-7. With a better Crucible pedigree than seeded opponent Stephen Maguire, both Matthew Stevens and Ken Doherty can be backed each-way at 16/1 and 20/1 respectively. Though as one will obviously be eliminated should they face each other, it may be advisable to back the winner after the match as their price should still be attractive. Peter Ebdon may prove a tough semi-final opponent should he make it that far, however, whichever of Stevens or Doherty progresses arguably has a superior chance of making the final. Bets: John Higgins win @ 9/2 (Betfair) John Higgins place @ 5/2 (Betfair) Shaun Murphy place lay @ 11/4 (Betfair) Matthew Stevens e/w @ 16/1 (General) Ken Doherty e/w @ 20/1 (General)

[davidmphill]

Re: Snooker: World Championships Great post FR.:clap Good luck with your picks. I'd be happy to see Stevens do well.:ok

[mullet1984]

Re: Snooker: World Championships Just got back from the far east. Jet lagged but looking forward to two weeks snooker action. Hello to everyone else and Zulu imparticular. How r u? Yeah intersting post FR. I think you under estimate the form that Williams is in. When he plays Higgins it will be another great match. When two very good in form players play each other such as them two it is very difficult for one player to get two frame sin front. If you watched the China Open for example no player ever got two frame sin front. It is an amazing opportunity when the score is 2-3 or 5-4 to which ever player to back the player who is trailing. I would suggest a 75% hit rate so for me this is where the money in crucible betting, in running. Over the longer distances you can also see when one player is dominating a session and adjust accordingly. Zulu i agree with all your selections. Williams , Higgins and Lee is an absolute banker in my opinion. Further comments, I like Doherty alot against Hawkins. I've been fairly scathing of him lately but i feel the doc is too classy at present. Robertson for me is the long shot in the top half of the draw. Interesting comments about Ebdon FR. Maybe worth a small punt to place. I do expect Parrot to go clese against Dott. If i could have a bet i would bet on that to be the longest 1st round game in crucible history. Will take Parrot on the handicap but Dott will probably prevail. However still think that the winner will come from Higgins , Williams match. Stevens i'm not sure about but has the ability to improve with each game. My selections are below

[Sir Puntalot]

[Sir Puntalot]

Re: Snooker: World Championships

0.5pt ew J.Wattana 175/1 >Bet365

Quite freaked out when I saw that, as I agree he has every chance in the top half. :ok

[davidmphill]

[Mr Intensity]

[2damnhype]

[Mr Intensity]

Re: Snooker: World Championships

Sport	Snooker/Pool
Event	World Championships
Selection	EBDON to win 1st quarter
Strength	10/10
Date	28/04/2006
Bookmaker/Price	>Paddy Power @ 5.00 (Back)
Reasoning	Interesting little quarter at the top of the draw with defending champion Murphy at around evens to get through it. That looks like an awful price to me, he has to win 3 matches and they all look tough. He has been pretty average since winning last year, and doesn't look to be in great shape to make the defense of his title. First up for him is Wattana who has looked pretty decent at times this year, and if he clicks could well give Murphy a tough game. Next up would be Davis/Hicks, I'd favour Davis to beat Hicks and set up the meeting with Murphy. Murphy would be heavy favourite but if his long potting isn't spot on he could get into a lot of problems in that one. The bottom bit of this section looks nicer, with Ebdon/Holt and White/Gray battling it out. Ebdon has been poor lately but is always focused on this event and much prefers the longer format. He should have no problems with Holt who you'd expect to get frustrated and go a little mental against Ebdon! So Ebdon would play the winner of White/Gray; Gray hasn't done much for a while now and although Jimmy doens't appear to be in good form, I'd fancy him to come through. Ebdon/White would be good to see but just can't see Jimmy putting in a performance needed to beat Ebdon at this event. So it should be Murphy v Ebdon to win this quarter and I make that pretty close to 50/50; I think Murphy will have problems with the expectation on him here and with his own game, so I have to take Ebdon at a great price.

Might have a go at a couple of others, but haven't decided yet:ok

[Sir Puntalot]

Re: Snooker: World Championships World Championships Preview The WC is so different from any other tournament, even the UK Championships, because it is a tournament where you can literally "play yourself into form" such are the length of the matches. However, you do need to be mentally focused before you arrive at the crucible and have some half decent form to come in with these days, simply because the season is now only 6 tournaments long, a shambles to say the least. I believe this very fact makes the real contenders this year, quite easy to pick out, but of course there's always room for a surprise semi or finalist and there usually is. I'll run down the players I think are contenders, then a few words on the others. Mark Williams When this guy is on form, he is every bit as good as Ronnie/Higgins and sometimes better, but rarely gets the plaudits because he is happy to hit an 80 break and miss, winning the frame, whereas Ronnie/Higgins hits a 140+ and the crowd go mad. An absolutely terrible start to the season had a blatant excuse, Williams said "I can't be bothered practising", and wwanted to spend time with his kid. Well if you don't practice, you won't win anything and sure enough he had everyone from Homer Simpson to Eddie the Eagle beating him. However, he did get a grip and noticed his top 16 place was in danger for next season and then said "I've had to start practising as I can't afford to be out of the top 16, sure enough the turnaround was almost immediate. He started to play better in the Malta Cup, but not great and pretty much the same in the Welsh Open, but repeated he was practising hard now. By the time the China Open came along, he should now have been ready to show something and didn't he just do that! Dropping only 6 frames on the way to the final and scoring heavily and back to the fearless potting breakbuilding machine we know he is, beating Higgins in a very tense final frame to win it. My honest opinion is this is the man to beat in the WC. Not only has he hit form at the right time, but he is also much fresher than most players, (certainly Higgins has had a tough season) and that will count for a lot. He is also a twice world champion and I really can see it being 3 this year. I have never been so confident that a player would win the WC since the early Hendry days, of course I could be completely wrong, but time will tell. Ronnie O'Sullivan The guy is a genius. I've seen him playing in practice and pro-ams with right hand, left hand and even playing some poor bugger with alternate hands one frame! :lol He of course is a major contender, but I just get the feeling his head isn't right this year. Last year he didn't want to go China because "the prize money was crap", this year he wanted to go so he could "beat Ding in front of his own fans in the final". He'll stamp all over Dave Harold, but Ryan Day could well take him out, although I think he will edge that. His real test could come against Williams and that would be an awesome match that would probably go all the way, but he knows Williams doesn't fear him at all. Ronnie obviously has a good chance, but at his price he cannot be backed and you could argue he must be opposed. John Higgins Well what a comeback he has made in the last couple of years, and even more so this season. Just like the 2 players above, mentally, exceptionally strong. He has won 2 tournaments and lost in 2 finals and as much as that form is exceptional, I cannot back him because I think he has done too well and won't have the mental energy to do 2 weeks at the crucible, after his hugely successful season. I may be proved wrong, but yet again I think Williams will be too fresh for him in the 2nd round, and don't rule out a shock win for the leicester youngster Mark Selby in the first round. Ken Doherty This guy is so infuriating. At his best he has knocked in two 147's in 2 frames at Ilford Snooker Centre and won a world title, albeit only because Hendry had a huge season and had nothing left in the tank in the final imo (very similar to Higgins's season this year). However, he remains a player I rate very highly, but he just doesn't have the self belief a player of his talent should have. All too often he misses pressure balls imo, to put that into an example, I would say. He would miss the a pressure black 3 or 4 times out of 10, whereas the top boys would 1 or 2, there lies the difference. Of course he is in good form and has a weak draw which he could very well sail through, but I cannot see him winning the final should he get there. Shaun Murphy If you take records from 1969 (before is pointless), no first time World Champion has ever defended his title - fact. I know stats are there to be broken, but they are also there for a reason and I think the pressure must be immense, unthinkable compared to what I ever felt as a player. He has had a poor season and I just cannot see how he can be backed. He has a great draw, but he's unbackable for me and I can see Wattana taking him out. Stephen Hendry Seems strange to not have mentioned him before the others above, but that's his standing now, he is no longer the all conquering Hendry of the early 90's, he is inconsistent, although has shown some great form at times this season. He has a decent draw to a possible semin final with only Dott and Robertson looking real challengers to him, but yet again I would be surprised to see him beat Williams should that match happen. Should Williams not reach there, then I think he can possibly win an 8th title. Stephen Maguire An awesome player at his best, but seems to have gone way off the boil and then produces an quick glimpse of his old form, then nothing again. At his best he can reach the final and I wouldn't rule it out because of the draw he has. He does have to overcome Doherty and/or Wattana/Murphy but he is more than capable of doing that. As for winning the final should he get there? Of course he can, but would have to cut out the silly mistakes, his price isn't the best though. The Chasing Pack? Matthew Stevens Some may be surprised to see him this far down, but I think he should be around 33/1 this year. His form is awful and I think he is now seriously damaged good after he has 3 excellent chances to win this, with 2 finals and he arguably should have won both. Another Jimmy in the making? Such a nice bloke too, but he has to be stronger than strong to win it now. Peter Ebdon loves this tournament, it suits him down to the ground as he bores his opponents to death. He used to have such a great game, attacking like no other player bar Ronnie, but changed his game after a failed snooker player got into his head. He could win it on his best form, but he would send everyone to sleep doing it. Stephen Lee has the smoothest cueing action in snooker, it's just a shame he is so mentally weak. Can he win it? Not a chance, even though a possible semi finalist. I'll finish off with James Wattana. Wattana has sprung back to life this season and holds victories over John Higgins and a 5-0 whitewash of Ronnie only a few weeks ago. You dismiss this guy at your peril, he used to put the fear of christ up people because he showed no emotion even when knocking in a 147! This guy is a live outsider and can make the final - once you get there, who knows what can happen. ;) Outright Bets Mark Williams e/w @ 25/1 (previously advised) James Wattana e/w @ 200/1 Premierbet