Timeline Greyhound System Tested - Take 2!

[Guest CJ Mars]

Testing this again having finally grasped the methodology. There was a winner today (apologies for not advance positing but the qualifying times and trap had been clearly mentioned by me in the other thread and I generally don’t have the internet access on weekend mornings). Despite being a wiinner it still for me highlighted the problems inherenet in the methodology. The dog won and an overall profit of 3 units resulted on the bet. However with a stake of 4 units if the dig had won at less than 2s then a loss would have been had since the first 3 losing bets had a combined stake of 8 units. Coversely at odds of 6/1 then there would have been a huge profit for the exact same bet which strikes me as a result strictly down to chance. Qualifying bet on tomorrows meeting – 2nd RACE OF DAY – CHRONOLOGICALLY. Brief Methodology Will be concentrating on the first 8 races of the day (11.26, 11.34, 11,41,11.48,11.55,12.02,12.09,12.16 during the week). These races have different times during the weekend (generally start at Romford / Crawford at 11.00 and 11.07 and Perry Bar / Hove at 12.21/12.28 The medium level staking policy as advised by Fender will be used i.e Run 14 2 Points Run 15 2.5 Points Run 16 3.5 Points Run 17 4 Points Run 18 6 Points Run 19 9 Points Run 20 13 Points PLEASE KEEP THIS THREAD FREE FOR SELECTIONS / SHORT COMMENTS AS MUCH AS POSSIBLE. THERE IS PLENTY OF ANIMATED DISCUSSION ELSEWHERE, ;) I’d like to say that whether or not this turns out to be a winner or not that its good to see some debate back on PL about gambling issues that has been mostly pretty civilized. ------------------------------------------------- RECORD TO DATE During April there was one qualifier in the 8 races: Trap 4 Race 8 – Won 6th April (Wimbledon) 21stApril - Run 14 – 2 Points @ 6/4 - LOST :( 22nd April - Run 15 – 2.5 Points @ 7/2 - LOST :( 23rd April - Run 16 – 3.5 Points @ 11/4 - LOST :( 24th April – Run 17 – 4 Points @ 11/4 WON + 11 POINTS :D START BANK – 100 UNITS STAKED – 12 UNITS WON – 15 Point AVERAGE ODDS 2.63 END BANK 103 Units PROFIT – 3 UNITS :D BETS 3 – W/L 1/3 STRIKE RATE 25% --------------------------------------- TOMORROWS BETS Trap 3 Race 2 of First Two meets (i.e second race of the day in chronological order). I think this will be the first race of the day at Hove. Run 14 - 25th April – 2 Points

[Guest fender2004]

Re: Timeline Greyhound System Tested - Take 2! CJ, congratulations on getting your first winner using my system. What I do is proportion the stakes so that from the 4th bet on 2/1 would break you even and anything better puts you in profit. This balances out with the times you hit a wonderful 6/1 on the 6th ot 7th bet. Then you really make the points. For example today you increased you bank by a modest 3 pts. If you had hit a 6/1 on the 7th bet your profit would = 91pts - 40pts = 51 pts profit. That is the beauty of using an increment staking plan against a high strike rate. Anyhow CJ, I am very impressed with you for giving my system a try so early. Although, now that you've won in that race it makes me even more certain I am due a losing run, Lol! KINDEST REGARDS FENDER...

[Guest CJ Mars]

Re: Timeline Greyhound System Tested - Take 2! I'm still a sceptic Fender but I'm trying to be open minded about it. I'm NOT putting any cash down at the moment. Maybe after 4/5 runs and I'm in the cash I'll start putting some money down ;) . I'll be following trap 3 with interest over the next few days.

[Guest fender2004]

Re: Timeline Greyhound System Tested - Take 2! CJ, you have made a mistake. Trap 3 won on the 20th in the second race 11.34am. Trap 4 in the second race of the day is the one to watch CJ, it is now 12 days no show. If it doesn't show tommorow it becomes the next qualifier. Unfortunately Trap 3 has performed (even by its standards) better than usual this month so has offered no losing runs of 13 days. Trap 4 has made all the qualifiers. P.S sorry for littering your new thread. But I wanted to put you right. Kindest regards Fender...

[Guest DannyCash]

Re: Timeline Greyhound System Tested - Take 2! I beg to differ. Trap 1 was infact the winner of the second race on the 20th - the 11.55 @ Nottingham ;)

[Guest whoneedsrio]

Re: Timeline Greyhound System Tested - Take 2! Danny, Fender is correct, the first race on the 20th was the 11.26 at nottingham, the second race was Wimbledon the 11.34 and was indeed won by trap 3 at 4/1. Re your other question from the other thread about traps 3 & 4 both qualifing for the same race, the way I understand it yes they can. Each race is treated seperate, so in the first race of the day if both traps 3 & 4 go 13 days without winning both must qualify. Am I correct here Fender? CJ, I note you are using the first 8 races of the day in this thread but Fender is using the first 4 for the day (morning) then the first 4 races of the afternoon so half the time your not going to get the same selections as Fender. Any reason for this? Rio.

[Guest DannyCash]

Re: Timeline Greyhound System Tested - Take 2! It seems my source of greyhound racing results is not giving me ALL the results. Sorry. Won't be using William Hill for this service anymore. Buggers.

[Guest CJ Mars]

Re: Timeline Greyhound System Tested - Take 2! Fender

CJ, you have made a mistake. Trap 3 won on the 20th in the second race 11.34am. Trap 4 in the second race of the day is the one to watch CJ, it is now 12 days no show.

You're right :o . I meant to say Trap 4. I'm following the system in two seperate EXCEL sheets and just got them mixed up. I missed the fact there was a winner on 12th in Race 2 Trap 4 so as you say a new run will start tomorrow for Trap 4 Race 2. Rio I'm following the first 8 races of the day in chronological order as it is easier to track. In other words teh first 4 races as per Fender and then the next 4. There should in my view be no logical difference as the system is based on long losing runs.

[Guest fender2004]

Re: Timeline Greyhound System Tested - Take 2! Good pot Rio you're absolutely correct. But you know what the funny thing is? Trap 3 & 4 have never qualified in the same race at the same time. In the 8 races I follow. They are so good that when one isn't performing the other one is. But if they both were to ever qualifiy at the same time in the same race. I would indeed treat them as two separate bets. And more than lightly enjoy two separate winners...

[Guest CJ Mars]

Re: Timeline Greyhound System Tested - Take 2! RESULTS Trap 4 Race 2 Run 14 - 26th April – 2 Points – LOST @ 6/1 START BANK – 100 UNITS STAKED – 14UNITS WON – 15 UNITS AVERAGE ODDS 3.30 BANK 101Units PROFIT – 1UNITS BETS 5– W1/L4 STRIKE RATE 20% ------------------------------------- TOMORROWS BETS BET 1 :| Trap 4 Race 2 of First Two meets (i.e second (11.34) race of the day in chronological order). Run 15 - 27th April – 2.5 Points BET 2 – NEW QUALIFIER :| Trap 4 Race 5 of First Two meets (i.e fifth race (11.55) of the day in chronological order) Run 14 27th April – 2 Points

[Guest CJ Mars]

Re: Timeline Greyhound System Tested - Take 2! Todays Results 2 Losers today although for Bet 2 the dog finished 2nd at 5/1 :x . BET 1 Trap 4 Race 2 Run 15 - 27th April – 2.5 Points BET 2 – NEW QUALIFIER Trap 4 Race Run 14 27th April – 2 Points ---------------- TOMORROWS BETS BET 1 Trap 4 Race 2 of First Two meets (i.e second (11.34) race of the day in chronological order). Run 16 - 28th April – 3.5 Points BET 2 Trap 4 Race 5 of First Two meets (i.e fifth race (11.55) of the day in chronological order) Run 15 28th April – 2.5 Points ------------------------------------------------------------ START BANK – 100 UNITS STAKED – 18.5UNITS WON – 15 UNITS AVERAGE ODDS ?? BANK 96.50Units Loss – 3.5UNITS Yield – 19% BETS 7– W1/L6 STRIKE RATE 14%

[Guest CJ Mars]

Re: Timeline Greyhound System Tested - Take 2! Yesterdays (28th) Results 2 Losers today BET 1 Trap 4 Race 2 Run 16 - 28th April – 3.5 Points :( BET 2 – Trap 4 Race 5 Run 15 27th April – 2.5 Points :( ---------------- TODAYS BETS BET 1 Trap 4 Race 2 of First Two meets (i.e second (11.34) race of the day in chronological order). Run 17 - 29th April – 4 Points BET 2 Trap 4 Race 5 of First Two meets (i.e fifth race (11.55) of the day in chronological order) Run 16 29th April – 3.5 Points ----------------------------------------------------- START BANK – 100 UNITS END BANK 90.50Units STAKED – 24.5UNITS WON – 15 UNITS Loss – 9.5UNITS :( Yield – 39% BETS 7– W1/L8 STRIKE RATE 11%

[Guest CJ Mars]

Re: Timeline Greyhound System Tested - Take 2! This isn’t going well at all :\ :\ :\ Todays (29th) Results 2 more Losers today BET 1 Trap 4 Race 2 Run 17 - 29th April – 4 Points :x BET 2 – Trap 4 Race 5 Run 16 29th April – 3.5 Points :x ---------------- TOMORROWS BETS 30th April BET 1 Trap 4 Race 2 of First Two meets (i.e second (11.34) race of the day in chronological order). Run 18 - 30th April – 6 Points BET 2 – Trap 4 Race 5 of First Two meets (i.e fifth race (11.55) of the day in chronological order) Run 17 30th April – 3.5 Points BET 3 – New Qualifier Trap 3 Race 8 of First Two meets (i.e eighth race (12.16) of the day in chronological order) Run 14 30th April – 2 Points --------------- START BANK – 100 UNITS END BANK 83Units STAKED 32UNITS WON 15 UNITS Loss 17UNITS Yield – 113% BETS 11 W1/L10 STRIKE RATE 9%

[Guest CJ Mars]

Re: Timeline Greyhound System Tested - Take 2! TODAYS BETS 30th April BET 1 Trap 4 Race 2 of First Two meets (i.e second (11.34) race of the day in chronological order). Run 18 - 30th April LOST – 6 Points :x BET 2 – Trap 4 Race 5 of First Two meets (i.e fifth race (11.55) of the day in chronological order) Run 17 30th April – LOST - 4 Points :x BET 3 – Trap 3 Race 8 of First Two meets (i.e eighth race (12.16) of the day in chronological order) Run 14 30th April – LOST - 2 Points :x BETS 1st May BET 1 Trap 4 Race 2 of First Two meets (i.e second (11.34) race of the day in chronological order). Run 19 – 1st May LOST – 9 Points :x BET 2 – Trap 4 Race 5 of First Two meets (i.e fifth race (11.55) of the day in chronological order) Run 18 - 1st May – LOST - 6 Points :x BET 3 Trap 3 Race 8 of First Two meets (i.e eighth race (12.16) of the day in chronological order) Run 15 1st May – LOST – 2.5 Points :x BETS 2nd May Finally get a winner at 3/1 and make 15 points profit overall. Race 2 Trap 4 has now had a full losing run and I lose a staggering 40 units. You will want strong nerve and a big bank balance for this one BET 1 Trap 4 Race 2 of First Two meets (i.e second (11.34) race of the day in chronological order). Run 20 – 2nd May LOST – 13 Points :x :x :x :x :x BET 2 – Trap 4 Race 5 of First Two meets (i.e fifth race (11.55) of the day in chronological order) Run 19 - 1st May – WON Perry Bar - 9 Points AT 3/1 27 PROFIT :b BET 3 Trap 3 Race 8 of First Two meets (i.e eighth race (12.16) of the day in chronological order) Run 16 1st May – LOST – 3.5 Point :x --------------- START BANK – 100 UNITS END BANK 64Units :rolleyes STAKED 87UNITS WON 51 UNITS Loss 36UNITS :rolleyes Yield – DON’T ASK :puke BETS 20 W2/L18

[Guest fender2004]

Re: Timeline Greyhound System Tested - Take 2! CJ, I have much respect for you checking my system out for yourself, but I also have criticism for the way you are managing the bank. You need at least 200pts to opperate my system properly. And you should've been using my level 1 (20pts total risk per run) For trap 4. I warned you it was due a losing run. After winning 17 in a row this year. Also remember you're using 4 races I have no background on. So I can't recommend their track record. Over the 8 races I follow I now have a win to loss ratio of 35-1 for 2004. You have come into the system when a losing run was highly likely, and you've staked far too high against your starting bank. So it appears things are worse than they should be. Remember I have suffered the same losing run as you. The difference is my loss is 20pts against a 486pt bank. And the very next day I retrieved 9 of those pts on trap 3 winning race 8 in my system. You should be using 200pts and only risking 20pts 10% 0f your bank on any one run at present. There is no need to panic and worry then. As over time the winners will far out-number the losers and your bank will grow. I would recommend you follow my advice on money management. I will tell you when it's time to risk more than 10% of your total bank. I liken my staking to a poker player, you must learn when to raise, and when to restrain. Then your profits will grow much faster. Kindest regards Fender...

[Guest CJ Mars]

Re: Timeline Greyhound System Tested - Take 2! BETS 3rd May BET 1 Trap 3 Race 8 of First Two meets (i.e eighth race (12.16) of the day in chronological order) Run 17 3rd May – 4 Points WON @ 3/1 (Monmore 11.51) +12 Points :cheers BET 2 – New QUALIFIER Trap 3 Race 3 of First Two meets (i.e third race (11.41) of the day in chronological order) Run 13 3rd May – LOST – 2 Points :x BETS 4th MAY BET 1 – Nice winner from Trap 3. Trap 3 Race 3 of First Two meets (i.e third race (11.41) of the day in chronological order) Run 14 4th May – LOST – 2.5 Point :x BETS FOR 5th MAY Trap 3 Race 3 of First Two meets (i.e third race (11.41) of the day in chronological order) Run 15 STAKE 3.5 Points --------------- START BANK – 100 UNITS END BANK 64Units STAKED 95.5UNITS WON 67 UNITS Loss 28.5UNITS :( Yield MINUS 29.5% :( BETS 24 W3/L21

[Guest CJ Mars]

Re: Timeline Greyhound System Tested - Take 2! Couple of Points Fender Starting Bank The starting bank was for convenience only. It should be bigger in “real life†obviously as you say with respect to the stakes used (I’d say closer to 400 units rather than 200 units). The information of relevance here is only for yield and profit as this is what makes people sit up and take notice. I coudl have started with a bank of 1,000 Units. Matter of choice. The races I’ve chosen (i.e races 5 to 8 in the morning). These are in profit overall (over 10 units) BTW. There should be no difference for the blocks of races selected for this system in my view. If you had the time and energy AND IT WORKED then you could treat each race as a separate run thought the day IMHO. My Money Management Thanks for your offer re my money management but I’d like to think I’m pretty strong on staking strategies as it is. I’m proofing this to stop the whole “he said she said†that was going on in the other thread trying to be an "honest broker". I’m not some newbie punter that needs to be led around by the nose :)

[Guest fender2004]

Re: Timeline Greyhound System Tested - Take 2! My exact point is CJ, you're not proofing the system properly by my rules if you're risking 40% of your total bank on one run. I expect trap 3 to lose soon. If that happens with the way you're staking you'll be nearly wiped out. Its like someone staking 40pts on a bet while only having 100pts to start with. Two consecutive losers and they're done. It is going to take a year to proof my system properly. That means over approx 100 betting runs the Timeline will prove itself beyond a shadow of a doubt. 10% of your Bankroll is the ammount that should be risked on any one run. The only exception to this rule is when something happens, which is as close to a gauranteed certainty as you'll ever see in gambling. And that something is when two trap 3's for example qualify at the same time in two consecutive races (11.26am, 11.34am) for example, you then bet bigger on them because you're playing one off against the other to achieve one winner. The next time that happens, I will show you how much I am going to lay down. It is a gift. And what makes this system worthwhile over the long run. Kindest regards fender...