merlin Posted January 11, 2006 Author Share Posted January 11, 2006 Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. .... usually Kanga away odds are greater than those of home sides, also the yield quoted by Muppet could well have contained more errors on the homes than those of the away selections.Not important really, just a passing remark.;) Btw if we took only teams this week with 80% as home qualifier, only Celtic would be selected! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kanga Posted January 11, 2006 Share Posted January 11, 2006 Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. Hi Merlin, Sure - it's just that I didnt explain myself very well the first time and I am interested in "optimizing" past results to use as a basis for a system I have. Cheers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted January 11, 2006 Share Posted January 11, 2006 Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. I may just stick to the home wins - If it isnt too much trouble and out of curiosity what would the home 60% and away 45% results be ? Cheers. H60 A45 wins154bets243strike63.4%yield7.0% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted January 11, 2006 Share Posted January 11, 2006 Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. H A yield% games 100 40 8.7 140 100 50 17.4 72 100 55 15.4 49 100 60 14.4 36 100 65 20.8 20 100 70 -22.9 7 50 100 -3.9 226 55 100 1.4 182 60 100 4.3 138 65 100 7.4 104 70 100 5.6 67 75 100 5.9 48 80 100 16.6 30 so by setting one variable to 100%, it excluded it, and so homes and aways could be viewed separately. not much luck here - even high yields are from a small sample, and thus only give a pick every 100-150 games! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merlin Posted January 11, 2006 Author Share Posted January 11, 2006 Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. .... another interesting crop of stats you have here once again Muppet, and thanks for all the work you have put in on behalf of these early investigations.It would appear from the following figures that it is the homes that has dropped the overall yield. 60 - 60 Yield 6.4 Games 174, 100 - 60 Yield 14.4 Games 36 60 - 65 Yield 6.4 Games 158, 100 - 65 Yield 20.8 Games 20 By the fact that you have taken out 138 homes in the first sample, and another 138 in the second sample, there has obviously been more failures there to bring down the overall yield.Cheers.;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kanga Posted January 11, 2006 Share Posted January 11, 2006 Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. Well it wouldnt be the first time i got things around the wrong way - don't ask me to do anything involving mitred corners :loon BUT another way to look at this is not to back home teams at 60% - the yield from home teams jumps dramatically at 80% :drums Just a side thought - would the profit be greater with H60 A50 @ 210 matches an 8.7% yield or H80 A50 @ 102 matches and 17.0% yield Yield is fine but profit is what it's all about :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted January 12, 2006 Share Posted January 12, 2006 Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. H60 A50 @ 210 matches an 8.7% yield or H80 A50 @ 102 matches and 17.0% yield Yield is fine but profit is what it's all about :) really? i'm not sure profit is the best measure. surely yield is what it's about??? anyway: H60 A50 wins140bets210strike66.7%yield8.7%profit18.23 H80 A50 wins72bets102strike70.6%yield17.0%profit17.29 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted January 12, 2006 Share Posted January 12, 2006 Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. It would appear from the following figures that it is the homes that has dropped the overall yield. 60 - 60 Yield 6.4 Games 174, 100 - 60 Yield 14.4 Games 36 60 - 65 Yield 6.4 Games 158, 100 - 65 Yield 20.8 Games 20 the breakdown of these two: H100 A60 0405wins19bets28strike67.9%yield23.5%profit6.57 games/bet13.57 0506wins4bets8strike50.0%yield-17.5%profit-1.4games/bet20.88 wwoaaahhhhhhhh......... negative yield this season. :eyes H100 A65 0405wins10bets14strike71.4%yield25.4%profit3.55 games/bet27.14 0506 wins4bets6strike66.7%yield10.0%profit0.6games/bet27.83 a really small sample of games we're dealing with though... what's your instinct now? mine is to trust the large samples a bit more. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kanga Posted January 12, 2006 Share Posted January 12, 2006 Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. really? i'm not sure profit is the best measure. surely yield is what it's about??? Hi Muppet, Thanks again and superb postings :- :clap My reasoning for saying profit being better is this :- Yield is the total profit divided by the total amount staked – basically it’s an efficiency rating. To my mind if you make a profit of 1,000 points where you have staked a total of 50,000 points that's better than making a profit of 600 points staking a total of 10,000 points, even though in the first case the "yield" is 2% and in the second case the "yield" is 6%. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted January 12, 2006 Share Posted January 12, 2006 Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. Hi Muppet' date= To my mind if you make a profit of 1,000 points where you have staked a total of 50,000 points that's better than making a profit of 600 points staking a total of 10,000 points, even though in the first case the "yield" is 2% and in the second case the "yield" is 6%. surely staking the same 50,000 points on the second example, gives you a higher profit of 3,000? it's up to you how much you stake, but a greater yield or efficiency will always return more money, given that the same amount is staked. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kanga Posted January 12, 2006 Share Posted January 12, 2006 Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. surely staking the same 50,000 points on the second example, gives you a higher profit of 3,000? it's up to you how much you stake, but a greater yield or efficiency will always return more money, given that the same amount is staked. This is where it gets complicated by how many bets a method gives - how good the strike rate is - how much you are willing to stake - the likelyhood of bankruptcy etc etc. In the examples provided - I'm assuming the bets quoted are level stakes. The Home 60% away 50% the figures has :- Wins140Bets210Strike66.7%Yield8.7%Profit18.23 The Home 80% away 50% figures are :- Wins72Bets102Strike70.6%Yield17.0%Profit17.29 h80 a50 is twice as efficient as h60 a50 with half the bets but would it be wise to double the stakes given the strike rate of around 70% ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merlin Posted January 12, 2006 Author Share Posted January 12, 2006 Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. it's up to you how much you stake, but a greater yield or efficiency will always return more money, given that the same amount is staked. I agree entirely with this remark Muppet but in Kanga's example 50000 staked to reap 1000, just look at the time and risk element alone,would take much longer in terms of real time to attain the profit.Risk alone is surely five times greater.Again, some first class tables and examples shown Muppet, I think that I would agree with you that the larger sample figures might be worth sticking with.;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted January 12, 2006 Share Posted January 12, 2006 Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. ok. so which combination of %s do you both think is the one to look at? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merlin Posted January 12, 2006 Author Share Posted January 12, 2006 Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. I think that the Home v Away percentages is very much down to each individual punter and how many bets per weekend they are willing to invest in.Personally, I think Muppet, that the 80% would rule out a lot of the action inasmuch betting opportunities are cut down.However if you look at the other side of the coin, the risk element is also cut down, so down very much to how you invest.I myself, would be happy to string along with the 60% - 50% equation, seems to have churned out decent figures in the past, so that is good enough for me at this point in time. One could always review figures at any time of course, so no hard and fast rules there.Another thought is to attempt to cross match some of the selections with Michael Wray's Spreadsheet predictions without actually taken his scores as gospel.The 3-0 predictions have a pretty good record, so some food for thought there perhaps.The World is our oyster they say, depends how you see it, and more importantly, how you play it! Cheers.;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kanga Posted January 12, 2006 Share Posted January 12, 2006 Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. Merlin, this is your thread and your initial estimate of H60% A50% was remarkably accurate as a cut off point - I don't believe it was a random pick but an intuition :clap I've noticed in other threads you mention other predictors - would you be kind enough to share the links with me and your thoughts on their accuracy ? The thoughts of cross reference and comparison is appealing. :loon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merlin Posted January 12, 2006 Author Share Posted January 12, 2006 Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. .... thanks for those few kind words Kanga, nothing special, just thought that it would be a good starting point.The cross reference I mentioned above is in this forum Systems and Strategy, and is headed Michael Wray's Spreadsheets, a thread initially started by someone else, it died a little, and I resurrected it from the ashes.You should find some interesting stuff there, and a link pointing you to a download of his spreadsheets, which I may say are a piece of true art in their own right.Enjoy.;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kanga Posted January 13, 2006 Share Posted January 13, 2006 Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. Hi Merlin, Thanks for the link I'm looking to download it after typing this - do you rate any other predictors - betting genius ? any thoughts on the Xperts choice table in Racing & Football Outllook ...etc...etc ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merlin Posted January 13, 2006 Author Share Posted January 13, 2006 Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. ... hi there Kanga. The only software I was unfortunate enough to purchase and also believe a high supposed strike rate of 80% correct, was when I was mug enough to get involved with Football Symphony.Absolute rubbish!The RFO experts in the same paper are no better than average in my opinion.I'm a new recruit and also new believer in betting singles as the way forward, too many times I have been let down by sure things.So I look in on Datapunters thread on Red Hot Favourites on this forum,and coupled with that I joined Joe's 1x2 betting service for a one off payment of £10 for e-mail advices weekly,which these past few weeks have shown me how to profit.I have my own Power Ratings on the UK Football forum just launched this week for the first time here, so do have a peep there, not infallible but there as a guidance.Cheers.;) ps Did you get Michael Wray's spreadsheets downloaded? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidc Posted January 13, 2006 Share Posted January 13, 2006 Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. Hi all. Kanga; I am currently running a trial of the Betting Genius software see threrad http://www.punterslounge.com/forum/showthread.php?t=22746 They offer a free months trial then charge £27.95 if you want to continue using the programme. Although IMO the trial period is not long enough to determine if the results are sustainable the results so far seem promising As for the Michael Wray spreadsheets unfortunately you need Excel for them to work properly (I have Open Office but the spreadsheets do not work properly with it) but looking at the results that Merlin has so far acheived and with a little tweaking there is the makings of a good system there. Merlin; keep posting the picks please! :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kanga Posted January 13, 2006 Share Posted January 13, 2006 Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. Hi Merlin, Thanks for the info - I'll take a look at your power ratings. I downloaded MW's spreadsheets and had to play around with the macro's to get it to work and all is great now thanks - Shame there is no Scottish League - A question I have though is how do I update them ? Davidc - Thanks for the headsup on BG will you still be continuing the thread past the trial - I imagine you'd be able to post the results but not the selections beforehand ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merlin Posted January 13, 2006 Author Share Posted January 13, 2006 Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. Hi there DaveC. Will keep you updated with picks.PM me your e-mail address and I will see what I can do for your Excel situation. Kanga. Updates are straight forward. It can be done two ways. 1) After going into appropriate team file, click the enable macros button. click the Enter results for date range button at the bottom right. click the left date button and insert some date say 2 weeks ago.Click the left date button for the date of the matches to be updated.Brings up another box,click the date on the calendar,then button 1 to get the match grid for the date in question.Enter results.Click button 2 and this updates all. 2) Click enable macros button.Click Enter results button at the bottom. Select home team,select away team.Click enter result.Brings up a score box.Enter home goals,then away goals,click accept and save. Very user friendly, that's it.Just shout if you get stuck. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidc Posted January 13, 2006 Share Posted January 13, 2006 Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. Hi Merlin, thanks for the offer - you got mail! Kanga; I'm not sure if the programme has some sort of code written into it which prevents it from being used after the trial has finished - I'll just have to wait and see. It would mean updating the files manually if the software no longer works after the trial, although this wouldn't take too much time. I have noticed some gliches in the software and intend to mail BG with the details - perhaps they will extend the free trial for me! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merlin Posted January 14, 2006 Author Share Posted January 14, 2006 Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. .... Hi DaveC...... got no mail yet......see yours! Must have gone astray somewhere along the line.Cheers.;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kanga Posted January 14, 2006 Share Posted January 14, 2006 Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. Just done a comparison for the Premiership and the Championship using the 3 methods discussed - hope it's of help. Premiership TP BG MW Arsenal vs Middlesboro 66.2% 68% 3-0 Aston vs West Ham 40.3% 39% 1-2 Blackburn vs Bolton 30% 51% 2-1 Charlton vs Birmingham 48.4% 49% 1-1 Fulham vs Newcastle 35.1% 56% 1-1 Liverpool vs Spurs 53.7% 52% 2-0 ManCity vs Man Utd 28.8% 28% 1-2 Portsmouth vs Everton 39.8% 47% 0-2 Sunderland vs Chelsea 7.3% 4% 0-2 Wigan vs West Brom 55% 67% 1-1 Championship TP BG MW Wolves vs Luton 59.6% 52% 0-0 Brighton vs Leeds 24.8% 16% 0-1 Cardiff vs Burnley 43.6% 46% 1-0 Derby vs Crewe 64.7% 53% 2-1 Hull vs CrystalPalace 33.7% 36% 1-0 Ipswich vs Sheff Utd 25.6% 20% 2-2 Plymouth vs Norwich 38.1% 42% 0-2 Preston vs Millwall 59.1% 30% 1-1 QPR vs Southampton 32.6% 33% 1-0 Reading vs Coventry 74.1% 72% 3-1 Sheff Wed vs Leicester 29.1% 45% 1-0 Watford vs Stoke 43.5% 1-2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merlin Posted January 14, 2006 Author Share Posted January 14, 2006 Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. .... looks good Kanga, will be interesting to see just how things match up here when the results are known.;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kanga Posted January 14, 2006 Share Posted January 14, 2006 Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. Ok - Tables with the saturday results - I'll edit and add the sunday ones later. Very early days but I'd be interested in any patterns you notice. PremiershipTPBGMWResult Arsenal vs Middlesboro 66.2%68%3-07 - 0Aston vs West Ham 40.3%39%1-21 - 2Blackburn vs Bolton 30%51%2-10 - 0Charlton vs Birmingham 48.4%49%1-12 - 0Fulham vs Newcastle 35.1%56%1-11 - 0Liverpool vs Spurs 53.7%52%2-01 - 0Man City vs Man Utd 28.8%28%1-23 - 1Portsmouth vs Everton 39.8%47%0-20 - 1Sunderland vs Chelsea 7.3%4%0-2Wigan vs West Brom 55%67%1-1 ChampionshipTPBGMWResult Wolves vs Luton 59.6%52%0-02 – 1Brighton vs Leeds 24.8%16%0-12 - 1Cardiff vs Burnley 43.6%46%1-03 - 0Derby vs Crewe 64.7%53%2-15 - 1Hull vs Crystal Palace 33.7%36%1-01 - 2Ipswich vs Sheff Utd 25.6%20%2-21 - 1Plymouth vs Norwich 38.1%42%0-21 - 1Preston vs Millwall 59.1%30%1-12 - 0QPR vs Southampton 32.6%33%1-01 - 0Reading vs Coventry 74.1%72%3-12 - 0Sheff Wed vs Leicester 29.1%45%1-02 - 1Watford vs Stoke 1-21 - 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merlin Posted January 14, 2006 Author Share Posted January 14, 2006 Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. What I have noticed Kanga, is that quite a lot of my MW scores are not the same as the ones you quoted.:unsure 9 in Premiership and 5 in Championship differ. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kanga Posted January 14, 2006 Share Posted January 14, 2006 Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. Doh !! :spank Well I imagine the updates I've done have gone wrong :wall Can you pm me the correct scores and I'll amend the tables - and try and update the spreadsheets again. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merlin Posted January 14, 2006 Author Share Posted January 14, 2006 Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. .... OK all done and dusted! See your PM.;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kanga Posted January 15, 2006 Share Posted January 15, 2006 Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. Thanks Merlin - Ok so i'll try again !! - this is how it should look - I'm going to try updating again to see if I get the same figures :lol Premiership TP BG MW Result Arsenal vs Middlesboro 66.2% 68% 2-0 7 - 0 Aston vs West Ham 40.3% 39% 2-0 1 - 2 Blackburn vs Bolton 30% 51% 2-2 0 - 0 Charlton vs Birmingham 48.4% 49% 2-0 2 - 0 Fulham vs Newcastle 35.1% 56% 3-2 1 - 0 Liverpool vs Spurs 53.7% 52% 1-0 1 - 0 ManCity vs Man Utd 28.8% 28% 0-2 3 - 1 Portsmouth vs Everton 39.8% 47% 1-0 0 - 1 Sunderland vs Chelsea 7.3% 4% 0-2 Wigan vs West Brom 55% 67% 2-1 Championship TP BG MW Result Wolves vs Luton 59.6% 52% 0-0 2 – 1 Brighton vs Leeds 24.8% 16% 0-1 2 - 1 Cardiff vs Burnley 43.6% 46% 2-0 3 - 0 Derby vs Crewe 64.7% 53% 2-1 5 - 1 Hull vs CrystalPalace 33.7% 36% 1-1 1 - 2 Ipswich vs Sheff Utd 25.6% 20% 1-2 1 - 1 Plymouth vs Norwich 38.1% 42% 0-2 1 - 1 Preston vs Millwall 59.1% 30% 2-0 2 - 0 QPR vs Southampton 32.6% 33% 1-0 1 - 0 Reading vs Coventry 74.1% 72% 3-1 2 - 0 Sheff Wed vs Leicester 29.1% 45% 1-0 2 - 1 Watford vs Stoke 43.5% 1-2 1 - 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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