DC Posted December 29, 2005 Share Posted December 29, 2005 Ok folks, I've been tracking and researching over the last few months and believe I have finally discovered a nice method for laying horses that are mostly expected to win, but in the long run, do lose. ;) The statistics look good with every year having made a profit since 1997. :) I won't be putting up the rules on here but I'm happy to post up the daily qualifiers of which there will be, on average, FOUR lays a day. Sometimes there will be more than 1 lay in the same race. I hope to post up all the qualifiers for each days racing in the morning but as you know we lead busy lives on this thread so I cannot guarantee the full results and updates every day. The starting bank will be 100pts. Every successful lay will generate 1pt profit. NO LAY IF OVER 20.00 on Betfair or other exchange. I would not suggest anyone attempts this with real money just yet, but for the record I will be wagering small amounts level stakes on the lays. I hope everything is clear?! - WISH ME LUCK!!! :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Intensity Posted December 29, 2005 Share Posted December 29, 2005 Re: Profitable Laying System Good luck Danny:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC Posted December 29, 2005 Author Share Posted December 29, 2005 Re: Profitable Laying System Thanks Mr I! I may use a chart I discovered on the net for estimate Betfair odds i.e evens = 2.1 2-1 = 3.3 3-1 = 4.5 4-1 = 5.7 6-1 = 8.2 10-1 = 14.3 25-1 = 49.1 I can post up the full chart if need be. I have asked Datapunter for clarification as I'm not entirely happy with the SP + 10%/20% rule. As promised here are tomorrows qualifiers: 1:40 Haydock ANOTHER NATIVE 2:00 Lingfield NORTHERN DESERT & ISLAND RAPTURE 3:30 Lingfield BENEKING :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spreadman Posted December 30, 2005 Share Posted December 30, 2005 Re: Profitable Laying System GL, Mr. D, you will no doubt be relieved to hear that I rarely wager on the horses, and so therefore will not put a jinx upon your thread by following your lays. :D Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC Posted December 30, 2005 Author Share Posted December 30, 2005 Re: Profitable Laying System Mr S that is possibly the best christmas present I could've asked for!! STAY WELL CLEAR!!! Only joking mate :D Feel free to pop in now and again and laugh at how badly I'm doing!! :lol DC ps Haydock is off folks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spreadman Posted December 30, 2005 Share Posted December 30, 2005 Re: Profitable Laying System :lol :ok Will do, Mr. D. !! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ONEDUNME Posted December 30, 2005 Share Posted December 30, 2005 Re: Profitable Laying System Haydock is off Danny. Gonna have a look at the other two now. Good luck Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ONEDUNME Posted December 30, 2005 Share Posted December 30, 2005 Re: Profitable Laying System Laying those two in the 2 oclock would frighten me to death to be honest Danny:lol but, as I said, good luck to you:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted December 30, 2005 Share Posted December 30, 2005 Re: Profitable Laying System Good luck Danny :ok There is a contradiction in your top post, if each lay produces 1 pnt profit then that is fixed profit staking, if you want to use level stakes you need to set the liability at the same amount each time and change the amount you type in. Won't be much difference in the 2 i think, just make sure you are clear about it or you could be making descisions based on the wrong maths. Not sure what you want to achive with the price table, why not simply post an expected price (or an early price) and then the price you've actually gotten. I can see how the table might be usefull if you want to estimate an expected price based on SP, but as you are putting some money on you've passed that and know an actual real life price. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC Posted December 30, 2005 Author Share Posted December 30, 2005 Re: Profitable Laying System Thanks Data, I'm doing fixed PROFIT staking then at 1pt per bet - 5% commission of course. The reason I wanted to have a standard table is to avoid the arguments about price. For instance, I may post up a price that I achieved yet the price may drift suddenly and be unachievable for others. I'm happy to post up my personal prices though and hopefully any major differences will even out in the long run. I've had to ammend the title to this thread due to todays two seconds!! This is going to be a rocky ride I know!! ISLAND RAPTURE layed at 6.4 = unplaced +0.95pts NORTHERN DESERT layed at 10.00 = second :loon +0.95pts BENEKING layed at 10.00 = second :loon +0.95pts Total profit 2.85pts Bank 102.85pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spreadman Posted December 30, 2005 Share Posted December 30, 2005 Re: 'LIVE LIFE ON THE EDGE' SYSTEM by DANNY CASH!! Good start, Danny :ok ...didn't see the races, but were the distances close for second places??? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC Posted December 30, 2005 Author Share Posted December 30, 2005 Re: 'LIVE LIFE ON THE EDGE' SYSTEM by DANNY CASH!! Thanks Spreadman :ok A length and a neck my friend, a length and a neck :unsure This system will hit 13 winners every 100 lays on average. There's no point in worrying I guess, I will hit a winner every now and then!! Cheers DC Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spreadman Posted December 30, 2005 Share Posted December 30, 2005 Re: 'LIVE LIFE ON THE EDGE' SYSTEM by DANNY CASH!! :unsure ......so as long as your liability per selection, (on average), is no more than 6 points, you should profit...? (13 x 6 = 78 points lost, 87 x 1 point won....). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC Posted December 30, 2005 Author Share Posted December 30, 2005 Re: 'LIVE LIFE ON THE EDGE' SYSTEM by DANNY CASH!! You got it mate! Saturday's lays (boy I'm good to you lot - posting up before I've got my money down!) 12:35 Wolves CASHEL MEAD 1:05 Wolves COCONUT MOON & ALMATY EXPRESS 2:20 Lingfield ARMATURK 3:45 Wolves SOVERIEGN SPIRIT Cheers DC Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC Posted January 1, 2006 Author Share Posted January 1, 2006 Re: 'LIVE LIFE ON THE EDGE' SYSTEM by DANNY CASH!! Hit a "winner" yesterday with Armaturk getting up on the line. Full results and figures to come, here are today's lays: 2:05 Southwell PEAK PARK & SPITTING IMAGE 2:25 Plumpton TOULOUSE LAUTREC 2:40 Southwell FYODOR & QUIET TIMES 3:00 Plupmton MYSTICAL STAR 3:45 Southwell GEM BIEN & QUIET READING Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC Posted January 1, 2006 Author Share Posted January 1, 2006 Re: 'LIVE LIFE ON THE EDGE' SYSTEM by DANNY CASH!! Dec 31st Results 12:35 Wolves CASHEL MEAD layed @ 5.1 = unplaced +0.95pts 1:05 Wolves COCONUT MOON layed @ 5.5 = 3rd +0.95pts ALMATY EXPRESS layed @ 5.5 = 2nd +0.95pts 2:20 Lingfield ARMATURK layed @ 6.0 = WON -5.00pts 3:45 Wolves SOVERIEGN SPIRIT layed @ 6.0 = 2nd +0.95ts Profit = -1.20pts Bank = 101.65pts Jan 1st Results 2:05 Southwell PEAK PARK layed @ 3.25 = 2nd +0.95pts SPITTING IMAGE layed @ 4.5 = WON -3.5pts 2:25 Plumpton TOULOUSE LAUTREC layed @ 6.8 = 2nd +0.95pts 2:40 Southwell FYODOR layed @ 2.00 = WON -1.00pt QUIET TIMES layed @ 8.8 = unplaced +0.95pts 3:00 Plupmton MYSTICAL STAR layed @ 2.4 = 2nd +0.95pts 3:45 Southwell GEM BIEN layed @ 13.50 = unplaced +0.95pts QUIET READING @ 7.8 = unplaced +0.95pts Profit = +1.2pts Bank = 102.85pts Took all todays prices early and suffered because both winners won at shorter prices than I layed at. Still nicely leveled out yesterdays losses. DC Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC Posted January 2, 2006 Author Share Posted January 2, 2006 Re: 'LIVE LIFE ON THE EDGE' SYSTEM by DANNY CASH!! January 2nd lays: 2:00 Southwell ALL BLEEVABLE 2:30 Southwell HIGH FREQUENCY 3:30 Southwell LOCK STOCK & SORBIESHARRY 2:40 Folkestone TALLOW BAY Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC Posted January 2, 2006 Author Share Posted January 2, 2006 Re: 'LIVE LIFE ON THE EDGE' system - laying horses with Danny Cash!! *** 3.30 Southwell SORBIESHARRY price above 20.00 - no bet as yet *** Price now 17.5 so looks like it's a lay.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC Posted January 2, 2006 Author Share Posted January 2, 2006 Re: 'LIVE LIFE ON THE EDGE' system - laying horses with Danny Cash!! Jan 2nd results : 2:00 Southwell ALL BLEEVABLE layed @ 10.00 = unplaced +0.95pts 2:30 Southwell HIGH FREQUENCY layed @ 4.7 = unplaced +0.95pts 2:40 Folkestone TALLOW BAY layed @ 14.00 = unplaced +0.95pts 3:30 Southwell LOCK STOCK layed @ 10.5 = unplaced +0.95pts SORBIESHARRY layed @ 17.00 = unplaced +0.95pts Full house today +4.75pts :) New bank = 107.60pts DC Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC Posted January 3, 2006 Author Share Posted January 3, 2006 Re: 'LIVE LIFE ON THE EDGE' system - laying horses with Danny Cash!! 3rd january lays: 12:40 Lingfield QUANTUM LEAP 14:50 Lingfield HOLLOW JO 15:50 Lingfield ANFIELD DREAM & THE FISIO Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC Posted January 3, 2006 Author Share Posted January 3, 2006 Re: 'LIVE LIFE ON THE EDGE' system - laying horses with Danny Cash!! 3rd January results: 12:40 Lingfield QUANTUM LEAP layed @ 11.00 = unplaced +0.95pts 14:50 Lingfield HOLLOW JO layed @ 3.7 = WON -2.7pts 15:50 Lingfield ANFIELD DREAM layed @ 6.20 = unplaced +0.95pts THE FISIO layed @ 5.60 = unplaced +0.95pts Profit = 0.15pts :lol New bank = 107.75pts Ok, an early problem I foresee is this: All my lays take place at lunch time during the week, as I work during the day. It seems I'm missing out and laying at bigger prices than that at the off. For example today Quantum Leap went off at 9.8 (I took 11.00), Hollow Jo went off at 3.10 (I took 3.7) etc etc. If I keep laying at prices +0.5 and upwards of actual exchange prices on the off, it WILL make a difference to the overall figures because those winners will do more damage than I estimated. :$ The only way to overcome this is to find someone willing to put the bets on for me nearer the off, or use the Betfair phone service before the off but their minimum lay is £20 (twice my current price) which means risking more. The last option is to only lay at weekends/night racing, when I'm sat in front of my machine, which will reduce the number of bets a month considerably and of course reduce profit levels. Anyone have any suggestions? DC Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC Posted January 4, 2006 Author Share Posted January 4, 2006 Re: 'LIVE LIFE ON THE EDGE' system - laying horses with Danny Cash!! 4th January lays: 1:30 Wincanton HIERS DE BROUAGE 1:40 Lingfield LIBRE/SIR HAYDN/WILLHEGO/RESONATE Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
georgej Posted January 4, 2006 Share Posted January 4, 2006 Re: 'LIVE LIFE ON THE EDGE' system - laying horses with Danny Cash!! Danny - it depends on your selection process as to whether this may work or not, but you can use gruss' trading tool to place bets from excel. Use some formulas or macros to place your bets x min before the off and the app should take care of the rest. Problems: you will need to make your selections before going to work/previous night your computer will be running when you are not there. I know some people have a problem in doing this, but others run their computers for weeks at a time when filesharing. Let me know and i'll try to help out where i can. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC Posted January 4, 2006 Author Share Posted January 4, 2006 Re: 'LIVE LIFE ON THE EDGE' system - laying horses with Danny Cash!! Thanks George, sounds ideal. I'll PM you tonight about it. LIBRE no lay odds 21.00 Others are all within price boundary. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC Posted January 4, 2006 Author Share Posted January 4, 2006 Re: 'LIVE LIFE ON THE EDGE' system - laying horses with Danny Cash!! 4th January results: 1:30 Wincanton HIERS DE BROUAGE layed @ 9.60 = 3rd +0.95pts 1:40 Lingfield LIBRE no lay (over 20.00) SIR HAYDN layed @ 9.60 = WON -8.60pts :@ WILLHEGO layed @ 9.00 = unplaced +0.9pts RESONATE layed @ 13.00 = unplaced +0.95pts Todays profit = -5.75 New bank = 102.00 Ironically todays winner drifted after my lay so not as much damage done, but not much to shout about today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC Posted January 5, 2006 Author Share Posted January 5, 2006 Re: 'LIVE LIFE ON THE EDGE' system - laying horses with Danny Cash!! It's going to be a busy day today... 5th Jan selections Hereford 1.00 WHITE DOVE Wetherby 1.55 KENTUCKY BLUE & HADITOVSKI Hereford 3.50 PEWTER LIGHT Wetherby 3.05 OSSMOSES & KEW TOUR & DEVIL'S RUN Wolves 4.30 WAINWRIGHT No lay if 20.00 or over... DC Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC Posted January 5, 2006 Author Share Posted January 5, 2006 Re: 'LIVE LIFE ON THE EDGE' system - laying horses with Danny Cash!! 5th Jan results - a good day! Hereford 1.00 WHITE DOVE layed @ 15.50 = unplaced +0.95pts Wetherby 1.55 KENTUCKY BLUE layed @ 18.50 = unplaced +0.95pts HADITOVSKI layed @ 16.00 = unplaced +0.95pts Hereford 3.50 PEWTER LIGHT layed @ 12.50 = unplaced +0.95pts Wetherby 3.05 OSSMOSES layed @ 6.40 = 3rd +0.95pts KEW TOUR layed @ 9.60 = 2nd +0.95pts DEVIL'S RUN NO LAY PRICE ABOVE 20.00 (unplaced) Wolves 4.30 WAINWRIGHT layed @ 4.1 = 3rd +0.95pts Total +6.65pts :) New Bank 108.65pts :) Devil's Run was over 20.00 on Betfair when I put my lays on, however the horse was backed into 9-1 and would've been a lay if I were able to get on nearer the price. In contrast Wainwright drifited out to 4-1cf so my lay of 4.1 was a good price much shorter than it's starting price on Betfair. I think it'll be swings and roundabouts whether there will be an overall gain/loss in laying just before the off or laying as I am now at lunchtime. Time will tell but I'm still intrigued with George's suggestion and will contact him privately about this. Cheers for now DC Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spreadman Posted January 5, 2006 Share Posted January 5, 2006 Re: 'LIVE LIFE ON THE EDGE' horse racing LAY system +8.65 FPS :ok Good day at the office , Danny. So, put 20,000 used PL bank notes in a sealed e-mail or I start laying your tips..... :loon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC Posted January 5, 2006 Author Share Posted January 5, 2006 Re: 'LIVE LIFE ON THE EDGE' horse racing LAY system +8.65 FPS Spread......I'm not happy about this....:unsure (hmm....can't decide whether to put up tomorrow's selections now....) Can I just say a HUGE thanks to GeorgeJ who has put in a lot of time and effort to help me with the trading tool/excel/macro's etc - much appreciated mate - This will make a massive difference to the operation of the system if it all works smoothly :clap :clap :clap Cheers DC Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC Posted January 6, 2006 Author Share Posted January 6, 2006 Re: 'LIVE LIFE ON THE EDGE' horse racing LAY system +8.65 FPS Fri 6th January selections Wolverhampton 2.00 KOSTAR & PRINCE TUM TUM Towcester 2.20 JACK FULLER Mussleburgh 3.10 BOHEMIAN SPIRIT & GANGSTERS R US Wolverhampton 4.00 ATLANTIC QUEST & OUTER HEBRIDES Another hectic day.... I dare you Spread, I dare you.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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