Tennis Tips - October 2 - October 8

[CzechPunter]

[CzechPunter]

Elena Rybakina to beat Qinwen Zheng at 1.67 with Bet365

Rybakina didn't play in Tokyo, since she was angry with the organisers, but at least she'll have more time to prepare for this, and I think she will be able to out-muscle Zheng eventually. Zheng had a long week ahead of this tournament, winning the Asian Games without many difficulties, but getting back to full strength both mentally and physically might prove to be quite tricky.

[Smiles Tennis]

15 hours ago, CzechPunter said:

Elena Rybakina to beat Qinwen Zheng at 1.67 with Bet365

Rybakina didn't play in Tokyo, since she was angry with the organisers, but at least she'll have more time to prepare for this, and I think she will be able to out-muscle Zheng eventually. Zheng had a long week ahead of this tournament, winning the Asian Games without many difficulties, but getting back to full strength both mentally and physically might prove to be quite tricky.

Agreed, I am on Rybakina at 1.78 on Betfair. Zheng has just been dropped by her coach suddenly without notice so he can go back and train Naomi Osaka who is returning to the tour. The Chinese players aren't the strongest mentally and although this could motivate her to say "i don't need you", it's more likely she will not be focused 100% and against a rested Rybakina that spells a bad day at the office. 

[CzechPunter]

Katie Boulter (+6.5) to beat Aryna Sabalenka at 1.66 with Unibet

I don't expect Boulter to keep this incredibly tight, but the +6.5 handicap looks a touch high to me given that she's been playing really well so far in the event. She was bombing everyone out in the qualifiers, and she also had a good first round performance against Frech. 

[sterziyskii]

Greetings guys.

I'm going with McDonald at 1.33 against Moutet. Giron against Galan at 1.50 and Karatsev against Halys at 1.50. Combined odds of 3.00

McDonald is the much better player out of the two and Moutet is just not that guy.

Karatsev is in the much better form and played a nice tournament in China last week.

Got some concerns about Giron but he should prevail in this one having much more and better wins on hard courts. 

Edited October 3 by sterziyskii

[Torque]

On 10/2/2023 at 6:20 AM, Smiles Tennis said:

The Chinese players aren't the strongest mentally

An interesting observation. Why I wonder.

[Smiles Tennis]

44 minutes ago, Torque said:

An interesting observation. Why I wonder.

I read a good piece once about how players from the same countries often have many of the same traits. They said with them often coming from the same academy's (unless they moved abroad when they were young to train) they get the same styles and traits developed. Chinese are mentally weak they said and I agree, there's no mental giants there. British always try to be aggressive baseliners but have bodies made of glass and often have injuries that are long term in their careers. 

Czech's have a lot of players with all court games, Vondrousova, Kvitova, Muchova. It was a good piece that got me thinking. 

Edit: As to why for the Chinese I don't know. Maybe heavily controlled from a young age? Qinwen has said how she was taken away when she was very young because she showed talent for tennis and didn't live the normal life, just training, and it's known how controlling the Chinese are. 

Edited October 3 by Smiles Tennis

[four-leaf]

I belive we have a comeback on our hands..

[Striker]

ATP Shanghai gets underway in the morning

Good class field with the top guys getting a first round Bye

Though Alcaraz the short priced market leader going to take him on with the American Taylor Fritz @ 33-1 with Betfred, who has won three titles on the hardcourts this season

Other half of the draw looks interesting with Medvedev the man to beat but again at bigger odds though tempted by the 50-1 on Korda will go with Alexander Zverev @ 20-1 with Betfred who won recently in Chengdu

Edited October 3 by Striker

[Swami]

1 hour ago, Smiles Tennis said:

I read a good piece once about how players from the same countries often have many of the same traits. They said with them often coming from the same academy's (unless they moved abroad when they were young to train) they get the same styles and traits developed. Chinese are mentally weak they said and I agree, there's no mental giants there. British always try to be aggressive baseliners but have bodies made of glass and often have injuries that are long term in their careers. 

Czech's have a lot of players with all court games, Vondrousova, Kvitova, Muchova. It was a good piece that got me thinking. 

Edit: As to why for the Chinese I don't know. Maybe heavily controlled from a young age? Qinwen has said how she was taken away when she was very young because she showed talent for tennis and didn't live the normal life, just training, and it's known how controlling the Chinese are. 

Qinwen’s coach Fissette just before the tournament decided unilaterally to interrupt the professional relationship with her, the reason: Osaka. He chose to get back working with Osaka and left Zheng. The Chinese was obviously very upset, and rightly so imo. I’m not sure about the mental fragility of the Chinese players… you have also to consider that all these players are very young… Na Li used to be pretty solid mentally

[Swami]

Kokkinakis + Samsonova @1.93 Pinnacle

I suspect Fognini got to Shangai just to collect the paycheck. He is 0-5 on HC in 2023, hasn’t played on this surface since the US qualis, and in the last tournament he played he had to retire due to injury. H2H: 3-0 Kokkinakis, the last one AO 2023: 6-1 6-2 6-2.

Samsonova is the better player here, she was pretty solid vs. Petra…  Kostyuk just defeated the saddest top player around, Jabeur, doesn’t mean a lot to me. H2H 3-0 Samsonova

Edited October 3 by Swami

[Smiles Tennis]

7 hours ago, Swami said:

Qinwen’s coach Fissette just before the tournament decided unilaterally to interrupt the professional relationship with her, the reason: Osaka. He chose to get back working with Osaka and left Zheng. The Chinese was obviously very upset, and rightly so imo. I’m not sure about the mental fragility of the Chinese players… you have also to consider that all these players are very young… Na Li used to be pretty solid mentally

I posted about her coach leaving her just above agreeing with @CzechPunterabout a tip. Them being young is a factor yes, and it's also a generalisation. They didn't say every single Chinese player is always mentally weak, just that it seems to be a general trait. 

Here is a piece that explains how negative reinforcement destroyed Li Na's confidence when she was young (WTA-ranked tennis players Li Na and Peng Shuai launch new policy in China - ESPN The Magazine - ESPN), she managed to recover from it but it seems like it's how they train them as they're developing. 

[CzechPunter]

@four-leaf We don't, she just wanted to play doubles with her niece, which she even didn't in the end.

[Torque]

3 hours ago, Smiles Tennis said:

I posted about her coach leaving her just above agreeing with @CzechPunterabout a tip. Them being young is a factor yes, and it's also a generalisation. They didn't say every single Chinese player is always mentally weak, just that it seems to be a general trait. 

Here is a piece that explains how negative reinforcement destroyed Li Na's confidence when she was young (WTA-ranked tennis players Li Na and Peng Shuai launch new policy in China - ESPN The Magazine - ESPN), she managed to recover from it but it seems like it's how they train them as they're developing. 

It's strange. You'd think that if training was controlled that mental strength would have been one of things drilled into them.

[Smiles Tennis]

1 hour ago, Torque said:

It's strange. You'd think that if training was controlled that mental strength would have been one of things drilled into them.

Perhaps they're trying to, but just go about it the wrong way? I might try to read some more about their tennis systems in place to train youngsters. It's interesting.

 

[sterziyskii]

What do you guys think about Sandgren against Basavereddy in the US chall? 

Yesterday was the first time I heard of Basavereddy and the guy hasn't won past the first round in any Chall. On top of that he is losing in the second round of the last 2 Majors for Boys which doesn't show much potential. 1.45-1.50 for Sandgren looks nice.

Combined with Garcia to win a set at 1.35. I think she will win but just to play it safe.

Coria is a nice match in the Brazil Chall.

Also wondering for which match to be the third onw and I think about J.J Wolf against Cachin at 1.30. 

Do you have any better choices guys for a bigger bet? Looking for matches that seem to be pretty safe

Edited October 4 by sterziyskii

[Torque]

2 hours ago, sterziyskii said:

What do you guys think about Sandgren against Basavereddy in the US chall? 

Yesterday was the first time I heard of Basavereddy and the guy hasn't won past the first round in any Chall. On top of that he is losing in the second round of the last 2 Majors for Boys which doesn't show much potential. 1.45-1.50 for Sandgren looks nice.

Combined with Garcia to win a set at 1.35. I think she will win but just to play it safe.

Coria is a nice match in the Brazil Chall.

Also wondering for which match to be the third onw and I think about J.J Wolf against Cachin at 1.30. 

Do you have any better choices guys for a bigger bet? Looking for matches that seem to be pretty safe

Not a match I'd want to play. Sandgren is unreliable at the best of times and Basavareddy beat Steve Johnson recently so the potential is there. Sometimes the price can look suspicious - as you said there's lot of reasons to back Sandgren so why isn't he shorter. I've learnt over the years to look twice when a price is a lot bigger than I think it should be.

[Torque]

9 hours ago, CzechPunter said:

@four-leaf We don't, she just wanted to play doubles with her niece, which she even didn't in the end.

She's down to play another singles match...

[CzechPunter]

She wanted to get some practice in before a veterans tournament that will happen in a couple of weeks. She won't even play Barthel, because ITF didn't like the fact that she didn't announce her "comeback" in the specified way.

[Smiles Tennis]

1 hour ago, CzechPunter said:

She wanted to get some practice in before a veterans tournament that will happen in a couple of weeks. She won't even play Barthel, because ITF didn't like the fact that she didn't announce her "comeback" in the specified way.

It's ridiculous that this has been counted as a "return to professional tennis" by the ITF. 

[CzechPunter]

Alexander Shevchenko to beat Hsin Tseng Chun at 1.58 with Unibet

I'll back Shevchenko again despite the disappointment last week, Chun is not a great player on balance, and Shevchenko certainly has way more potential than him plus recent match practice against stronger opposition.

[sterziyskii]

I'll go with Coria, Ofner and Wolf at 2.60.

Edited October 4 by sterziyskii

[Swami]

Don’t like anything in particular tomorrow, except for Coco - I think her athleticism could make Kuder play some extra shots and the courts are not very fast imo, which should give her some advantage - but the odds are too short, maybe live…

[sterziyskii]

Will Sakkari win against Wang? I haven't watched Wang in a bit but I think Sakkari should win here, no?

[Swami]

10 minutes ago, sterziyskii said:

Will Sakkari win against Wang? I haven't watched Wang in a bit but I think Sakkari should win here, no?

I watched the first set of Maria vs. Linda, and Sakkari wasn’t playing very well, she was down a break 2-3 and 15-40* if I remember correctly… then was able to win the set 6-4, but mostly because of the cheap mistakes made by her opponent, that was quite awful. I don’t know how Wang is doing so far, she is a talented player imo but still green 

[sterziyskii]

Gauff and Shelton at 2.00.

[CzechPunter]

Elena Rybakina to beat Aryna Sabalenka at 2.38 with Unibet

Based on the action so far, I like Rybakina at odds against. She's looked more confident and determined, and I think that she's also been serving a little bit better. The margin is tight here, but I think Rybakina is the value pick today.

[CzechPunter]

Cori Gauff to beat Iga Swiatek at 2.38 with Bet365

Swiatek hasn't been at her usual level so far in Asia, and I think that Gauff is the ideal opponent to take advantage of that. Confident, rested enough, with just enough match practice against reasonable names after the GS win, etc. She has the right power to deal with Swiatek's shots, and she can actually put her under pressure without sacrificing a lot in terms of accuracy. I honestly don't even know why Swiatek is the favourite according to the bookies!

[Swami]

14 hours ago, CzechPunter said:

Elena Rybakina to beat Aryna Sabalenka at 2.38 with Unibet

Based on the action so far, I like Rybakina at odds against. She's looked more confident and determined, and I think that she's also been serving a little bit better. The margin is tight here, but I think Rybakina is the value pick today.

Congrats on this one, wasn’t easy to call imo. So now we have a n.1 that won just 1 tournament in her last 10 quarterfinals, has Aryna become a bit of a choker?

[Swami]

1 hour ago, CzechPunter said:

Cori Gauff to beat Iga Swiatek at 2.38 with Bet365

Swiatek hasn't been at her usual level so far in Asia, and I think that Gauff is the ideal opponent to take advantage of that. Confident, rested enough, with just enough match practice against reasonable names after the GS win, etc. She has the right power to deal with Swiatek's shots, and she can actually put her under pressure without sacrificing a lot in terms of accuracy. I honestly don't even know why Swiatek is the favourite according to the bookies!

I agree that the odds are not right here, tbh I would have gone with Iga if only she would have been around 1.80 and if Coco wouldn’t have trashed Sakkari like she did… I watched parts of all Coco’s matches in Beijing, vs. Martic she was not very good, vs. Kuder she was pretty bad, vs. Sakkari she was almost unplayable… so to me a lot in this match depends on which version of Coco will show up tomorrow… I still feel that Iga needs this victory more than Coco does, but it looks like that after the Riba/Gilbert cure Coco has really learnt how to win ugly, so I’m really curious to see how it ends