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Racing Chat - Saturday 10th June

The Brigadier
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The Brigadier

The Brigadier

Posted
Posted
We have eight races from our good friends at ITV this afternoon although I must admit we’re lacking in a bit of quality which isn’t surprising really with Royal Ascot on the horizon. Beverley and Haydock share the limelight today with the ground riding on the fast side at both tracks although with the soon to be retired clerk of the course Kirkland Tellwright in charge of the watering at the latter we may have to revise our thoughts come race time. Here’s my free tips to beat the bookies.
 
Haydock 13:15
Today’s action kicks off with a ten runner listed race, the Skybet Achilles Stakes run over 5F.
The best in at today’s weights is Charlie Hill’s Eauilateral who if able to reproduce his latest effort when runner up, only beaten a length, in the Group 2 Temple Stakes over course and distance a fortnight ago will be hard to beat even if he did have an advantage that day racing against the near side rail. Frankie Dettori is having a terrific season winning on 13 of his 40 rides and is a mouth watering jockey booking.
There shouldn’t be anything between Ed Bethell’s Regional and Karl Burke’s Korker on York handicap form from last month and both should be thereabouts.
The only three year old in the contest and claiming a valuable 7lb age allowance is the Keith Dagleish trained Prince Of Pillo who looks quite interesting but hasn’t been seen for 246 days and may just need this run.
Last year’s winner Raasel, owned by The Horse Watchers was 7 1/4L behind Equilateral in The Temple Stakes a fortnight ago and even allowing for him racing on the slower part of the track has to up his game to turn the tables.
Drawn on the wing it’s Equilateral, the clear recent form horse, for me.
 
EQUILATERAL 1 point win @ 10/3 Boylesports
 
Haydock 13:50
A competitive fourteen runner class 3 6F 0-95 handicap is up next.
Top weight and my pick is the John Quinn trained Mr Wagyu who has a remarkable record in the Summer as opposed to the rest of the year and looked to be reaching peak fitness when running third at Epsom in a similar contest a week ago when third to Badr, only beaten 1 1/4L. He’s on a winning mark and loves to hear his hooves rattle.
Last year’s winner, the flying grey (near white) Silver Samurai has yet to really hit top form this season and is still 3lb higher than his winning mark of 12 months ago for trainer Marco Botti. His time is near but maybe not today.
The current favourite All The Kings Man also ran at the Epsom Derby meeting a week ago but on the Friday when running a fine third, beaten under a length to Austrian Theory over a mile and half a furlong and drops back 2 1/2F today. Even with the eye catching jockey booking of Ryan Moore he may just find himself run off his hooves by some experience speedsters and looks poor value to my eyes.
Julie Camacho’s Raatea is an interesting runner having run with distinct promise on his re-appearance when 5th to Probe at Newmarket in a better class handicap than this and can be competitive but for me it’s the top weight Mr Wagyu who can boost his Royal Ascot Wokingham claims by taking this handicap.
 
MR WAGYU 1 point each way @ 11/2 bet365 1/5th 1234
 
Beverley 14:05
Just the nine two year olds go to post for this class 2 Hilary Needler Trophy Fillies’ Conditions Stakes run over the minimum trip of 5F. To be honest it’s not a race that really strikes me as a contest where there’s a value bet. The current favourite and probably the most likely winner is the Richard Fahey trained Clipper Logistics owned Midnight Affair who ran a fine second on his debut at Newmarket in a race won iby George Boughey’s well touted Soprano. The issue with that form is that the 3rd, 4th, 5th, 6th and 7th have all been beaten since. I’m happy to let him win at around the even money mark with the form not working out.
Andrew Balding’s Flora Of Bermuda showed promise on his debut at Sandown in a bunch finish although that form too has been de-valued since by the 2nd and 3rd being beaten.
The Middleham Park owned Ziggy’s Phoenix has questions to answer on this lightning fast ground having won both of his starts on soft ground whilst the Charlie Johnstone trained Never Fear is dropping in distance and the horse he beat for his win has been soundly beaten since.
I don’t really see an angle here and am happy to keep my powder dry so it’s a no bet race for me.
 
Haydock 14:25
Ten go to post for this class 2 0-105 1M 4F handicap.
Saeed Bin Suroor saddles a brace of runners in the long time absent Live Your Dream who after 609 days off the track will surely need this run and Global Heat who may need the handicapper to drop him a few more pounds before reaching his winning mark again.
The ground may be too quick (although you never know with Haydock and Kirkland with his watering can!) for Charlie Fellowes’ Cumulonimbus whilst top weight Get Shirty may be still a few pounds too high in the handicap although I still feel he can run a good race here.
My pick however is the bottom weight trained by Kevin Ryan in Forza Orta who seems to be building up to something following two runs this Spring at Thirsk and York dropping 3lb. He’s only a pound higher than his last winning mark which came at York last July. Cam Hardie takes over for the first time and looks good each way value in an open looking contest.
Keith Dagleish’s Good Show is lightly raced and is only up 3lb for his win last time at Hamilton and on only his seventh start can also be thereabouts.
Keep an eye on the Terry Kent trained Cosmic Desert who was bought out of the Charlie Appleby stable for £100,000 and it will be interesting to see if he retains his ability.
 
FORZA ORTA 1 point each way @ 8/1 BetVictor 1/5th 123
 
Beverley 14:40
The weakest race of the eight shown by ITV is up next with a class 4 0-80 7F 96 yard handicap with ten declared.
There’s quite a few here that are hard to fancy looking either moderate or out of form and the pair that I like are the top and bottom weights.
Heading the weights is Mick Appleby’s United Front. Appleby has been slow to get going this season but he seems to have turned a corner now and his runner here is attractively weighted on the turf compared to the all weather with his turf rating 12lb lower than his all-weather mark. He possibly bumped into one last time in the Gosden handicap debutant Lady Eros and only a pound higher can take this.
Bottom weight Ugo Gregory has fallen down to a winning mark and appears to like this track with course figures here reading 8118413242. He seems in good form recently finishing a nose second to Cliffcake over course and distance 19 days ago.
Those two can battle out the finish with slight preference for United Front with Oisin Murphy an attractive jockey booking.
 
UNITED FRONT 1 point each way @ 11/2 bet365 1/5th 123
 
Haydock 15:00
Only six have declared for this intriguing Group 3 Sky Bet Lester Piggott Stakes (previously known as The Pinnacle Stakes) run over 1M 3F 175 yards for fillies and mares.
I’m against the John & Thady Gosden runner Mimikyu who has a 5lb penalty here for her Group 2 Park Hill Stakes at Doncaster last September. She should have been winning on her re-appearance at Goodwood but was caught close home and although that will have tightened her up she could be vulnerable to a couple of lightly raced promising types.
Firstly we have Roger Varian’s Modaara who has won two small novice stakes contests on the all weather easily and is very hard to assess but could be useful with entries in the Hardwicke Stakes and Irish St Leger suggesting her connections believe she may be.
Secondly there’s the Harry and Roger Charlton trained Time Lock, a Juddmonte four year old who’s neck second to Haskoy in the listed Galtres Stakes at York’s Ebor meeting last August is an excellent piece of form with Haskoy going on to finish 4th in the St Leger and win the Group 3 Al Rayyan Stakes at Newbury last month. It has to be said however that Time Lock was a tad disappointing on her re-appearance when only second in a listed contest at Goodwood to Luisa Casati. Charlton’s horses were out of form then and with that run under her belt and the stable now firing in the winners (4 from 11 in last fortnight) looks the bet here.
 
TIME LOCK 2 points win @ 3/1 bet365
 
Beverley 3.15
A small but select field of seven line up for this 5F Two Year Old Trophy Conditions Stakes with the best bet of the day lining up.
Karl Burke is having a tremendous season and can take this prestigious £40,000 added contest with his promising Cuban Slide who his trainer himself called ‘a smart colt’ having won on his debut when having been left at the start came through to win easily by 9L. I’m not entirely sure what he beat as the runner up and fourth have been beaten since from that four runner novice stakes at Musselburgh but it was more of the visual performance that stood out that day. He looks the best bet of the day and let’s hope there’s no issue with being slowly away again.
Richard Fahey’s Bombay Bazaar looked good winning over course and distance last month although that was on easy ground and fast ground will be totally different today.
Kevin Ryan’s representative is Room Service who went off a 20/1 chance when winning on his debut at Wetherby and has a chance whilst Richard Hannon saddles the Amo Racing owned Fusterlandia who ran second on his debut at Leicester.
An informative race but Cuban Slide made a big impression on me when winning at Musslebugh and with his handlers positive words afterwards could be too good for his rivals here.
 
CUBAN SLIDE 2 points win @ 11/4 William Hill
 
Haydock 15:35
Another small field, this time with just the six going to post for the Group 3 John Of Gaunt Stakes run over 7F of the Lancashire course.
There is an intriguing runner in the Australian contender The Astrologist who is jointly top rated here. He will have to show a bit more mind than he did on his British debut at York 24 days ago when only 7th of 10 ( beaten 7 1/2L) to Azure Blue in the Group 2 Duke Of York Stakes over 6F. He has won at today’s trip so that shouldn’t be a problem mind.
Stan Moore’s flag bearer Wizard Of Edge had Eve Johnson Houghton’s Jumby 3/4L behind in last month’s Group 1 Lockinge at Newbury over a mile with the drop to 7F more likely to suit the latter and he looks sure to run a big race for his in form trainer.
Boardman arrives in good form having won a handicap at his beloved Chester a fortnight ago but has it to do at the weights here with Gorak even more so.
Karl Burke is having a fantastic season especially with his sprinters of all ages and saddles his speedy El Caballo who won the Sandy Lane at this track over 6F last season. He’s flopped on both starts since with excuses for both and having already proven his stamina for today’s trip of 7F when winning on All-Weather Championship Final’s day last year can take this valuable contest with Clifford Lee in the saddle.
 
EL CABALLO 1 point win @ 3/1 bet365
 
All prices were accurate at time of writing.
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richard-westwood

richard-westwood

Posted
Posted

145 hay 

Mr wagyu  8.9 7/2 

Silver samurai  8.7 8/1 

All the Kings men   8.5 

Mr wagyu has been heavily backed into 7/2 ....a lot will hinge on how all the Kings men takes to the drop to 6f ...he looked fairly speedy but questions to answer .....I'll try 6pt in Mr wagyu ...4pt silver samurai 

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calva decoy

calva decoy

Posted
Posted (edited)

115 Haydock - EQUILATERAL 10/3 sky bet ( £ back if 2nd or 3rd ) really does depend what side of the stable door this one comes out of . 2nd 

150 Haydock - MUSIC SOCIETY 25/1 eway sky ( 5 places ) back up to 6f today should suit & was 2nd in this race last year off the same mark . 👎

Edited by calva decoy
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Brahmin

Brahmin

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Posted (edited)

          Start of Saturday bets............

         haydock   1.15    Raasel  13/2 EW                3 places         3rd

         haydock    1.15    Korker  10/1 EW                3 places

 

         haydock 1.50      Music Society   33/1 EW     4 places    betfair   ( if 11 run )

 

        Bev  2.05               Ziggys Phoenix    9/2       

 

        haydock 2.25       Forza Orta       8/1 EW       4 places betfair  (if 10 run )

        haydock  2.25      Dark Pine        14/1 EW     4 places betfair ( if 10 run)

 

        bev  2.40              Uno Gregory     3/1 

 

       bev   3.15         Scoops Ahoy    20/1 EW         3 places ( if 6 run )       NR 

       bev   3.15         Fusterlandia     5/2          (AMO racing .... have won 5 times last 10 days or so for me, 3 favs plus 9/1 & 9/2 )  

 

      bev 4.25          Western Beat 22/1 EW

     bev 4.25           Jewel Maker   5/1     

 

      bangor 4.35      Robbers Bridge   11/1 EW      4 places  (if 11 run)    2nd

 

        Good luck all with todays racing.......

 

       5pm ....well day to forget, and thats why when i WIN nicely ( Weds / Fri )  i withdraw that  evening so not tempted to 'chase' like could today! 

      my mate just texted me saying he had 4 winners this aft and all from ITV with Megan / Jason..... soooo  aghhhh 🤦‍♀️

        (2 bets this evening as cant believe Inter Milan are 11/2 so took that and double result of draw / win @ 13/8 ⚽ )  hope Inter score 1ST then City odds be attractive to score 2 or win so will bet that if happens!

Edited by Brahmin
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Sporting Sam

Sporting Sam

Posted
Posted (edited)

Sha tin

10 am

Dream winner smashed the course record on debut recently and is upped in grade  now and raised 12lbs. He is almost unopposabe but unbackable at the odds. Watching brief on that runner.

 

Super Axiom

Each way

Valiant Elegance

Each way

Will both go off at big prices and can give the likely winner most to do.

Edited by sporting sam
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Sporting Sam

Sporting Sam

Posted
Posted (edited)

Sha Tin

1030

Green laser

Apex top

Both win

This is charisma

Each way

Zac Purton rides green laser south African horse who has hit rock bottom ratings now.

There is a clear favourite who was an impressive winner last time but has never backed to back won before or been placed besides his three wins. May win today but not for me... 

 

Edited by sporting sam
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Tedthewolf

Tedthewolf

Posted
Posted

The racing looks very tough today nothing really standing out for me  but i will have a smal play in the 1.50 Hay on an outsider who seems to be out of form but if could bounce back to form would deffo have a  chance here so its 1pt e/w FOOLS RUSH IN  28/1 4p bog from the very shrewd Goldie yard and having its 4th run for the stable! 2pts invested

 

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Sporting Sam

Sporting Sam

Posted
Posted (edited)

Sha Tin 1100

El valiente

Win

Righteous doctrine

Each way 

El valiente form in beating travel glory on turf just franked in previous race. 

Righteous doctrine classy performer in his day and the only back to back winner in this field ( twice). On a good mark and no suprise to see improvement..

* Very rough race and El valiente got out of a deep seam just too late and couldn't reach winner, no more than a short head second. Winner needed and got the line.*

Edited by sporting sam
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kensland

kensland

Posted
Posted (edited)

Lucky 15.

3.15. Hayd Fusterlandia          13/8   2nd 

1.50.Hayd. Wagu                            9/4  unpl

2.10. Mexicali Rose                   4/9    2nd 

1.15. Hayd. Korker                 7/1      unpl

stk 7.50      rtn 168.50.

Good luck all. 

 

Edited by kensland
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black rabbit

black rabbit

Posted
Posted (edited)

Clarendon  house                                          1 15 Hyd/       1/20th   of a pt win     10/1         u/p

Mondammej                                                   1 15 Hyd/       1/40th of a pt ew        18/1         u/p

Nomadic Empire                                            1 50 Hyd/       1/40th of a pt ew        25/1         3rd

Florl Splender                                                 2 40 Bev/        1/ 40th of a pt ew       15/1         2nd

 

 

 

 

 

P/L   + 158.80 pts

Edited by black rabbit
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Bang on

Bang on

Posted
Posted

4.10 Hay - Bussento - 3/1 - Could be on a decent mark, and may appreciate the faster surface.

4.25 Bev - Jewel Maker 11/2 EW (1/5th 3 places) - Drops back into a class 5 handicap, Top course trainer Tim Easterby's runner looks to have a good chance. My concern about a couple of dangers (Broctune Red in particular) is the reason for playing EW.

7.30 Chep - Red Alert - 11/1 EW (1/5th 4 places with Skybet) - Has won off an 8lb higher mark within the last year, he is dropping down the weights and has become well handicapped. Trainer Tony Carroll is the top course trainer with runners today, and jockey William Cox (only 2 rides) has a very fair 22% strike rate when riding for T.C.

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Sporting Sam

Sporting Sam

Posted
Posted (edited)

2.40 Beverley 

 

United Front

Win

Ran in the chesham at Royal Ascot for Aidan O'Brien in 2019 and although well down the field, sets the quality street here.

Ugo Gregory

Win

Is in the form of his life and was just denied last time. Plenty of place form.

These two are top weight and bottom so if one doesn't run to ability, the other may benefit.

Edited by sporting sam
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Bang on

Bang on

Posted
Posted
7 hours ago, Bang on said:

4.10 Hay - Bussento - 3/1 - Could be on a decent mark, and may appreciate the faster surface.

4.25 Bev - Jewel Maker 11/2 EW (1/5th 3 places) - Drops back into a class 5 handicap, Top course trainer Tim Easterby's runner looks to have a good chance. My concern about a couple of dangers (Broctune Red in particular) is the reason for playing EW.

7.30 Chep - Red Alert - 11/1 EW (1/5th 4 places with Skybet) - Has won off an 8lb higher mark within the last year, he is dropping down the weights and has become well handicapped. Trainer Tony Carroll is the top course trainer with runners today, and jockey William Cox (only 2 rides) has a very fair 22% strike rate when riding for T.C.

Bussento - Non Runner

Jewel Maker - Jockey nominated for worst ride of year. Beaten just under 2 lengths after being out the back before trying to come up the rail when it was obvious that there was no way through. SHOULD WIN SOON. - lost

Red Alert - 3rd so place money only (odds 11/5)

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Sporting Sam

Sporting Sam

Posted
Posted (edited)
13 hours ago, sporting sam said:

Chepstow 7.30

Diamondsinthesand

Each way.

Headgear comes off as handicapper relents on second run for new yard.

Please look out for this fella. Was prominent for a long way last night before tailed off. Only form is on very soft ground at Navan when placed twice. Hence unlikely to get his ground anywhere until the autumn. Ideally suited therefore by Southwell where he can get his toe into the ground. I can assure you that this horse will pop up at a big price. The fact that he didn't run to his ability for the entirety of the race gave an advantage to the horses drawn alongside him as the results indicate. 

Edited by sporting sam
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