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Europa Conference League Predictions > Jun 7th


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The 2022/23 UEFA Europa Conference League Final is now confirmed. It will see Italian Serie A club Fiorentina take on Premier League side West Ham. It's set to be a cracking game and it'll be interesting to see what @Fader feels about his team's chances of winning the trophy. Give us your tips and predictions if you have any thoughts too! :ok

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  • 3 weeks later...

A quick crunch of the spread prices to give a flavour for what's expected from this game; might help to identify any potentially "off" fixed odds prices.

  • Total goals expectation 2.4. Simple use of Poisson function gives "true" odds for >2.5 goals of 2.32 which is pretty much where the fixed odds markets sit
  • Supremacy is West Ham/Fiorentina 0.025 so pretty close to a coin toss with a sliver of favouritism for West Ham. Fixed odds markets are similar but slightly favouring the Italians. Both teams around the 2.9 mark to win in 90 minutes. Both teams a shade of odds on to lift the trophy with the bookies though Fiorentina a shade of odds against on BF.
  • Total corners 9.55 split 5.4 for Fiorentina and 4.15 for West Ham
  • Total booking points 52 evenly split at 26 points each
  • Total goal minutes 123.5 (hovering around the standard 50 minutes per goal mark)

Will have a look at the anytime goalscorer prices for some of the more likely scorers.

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51 minutes ago, harry_rag said:

Will have a look at the anytime goalscorer prices for some of the more likely scorers.

4 players who stand out for me are Cabral (scored in 4 of his last 10 starts and 10 of his last 20), Gonzalez (4-6), Antonio (4-6) and Benrahma (3-6).

All at "not bad" prices, might see if I can turn that to "pretty good" on BF, albeit it with the gamble on who starts. (All 4 are in the probable line ups.)

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i am taking Fiorentina.

Not sure those are the best and most reliable arguments but they are 8th in Serie A with +10 goals differential , whereas in Premier League West Ham are 14th with -13 goals differential , the goal differential is quite a big argument for me ; PL is a stronger league than Serie A but still I feel those 50/50 odds have small value on Fiorentina.

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8 minutes ago, 888888 said:

i am taking Fiorentina.

Not sure those are the best and most reliable arguments but they are 8th in Serie A with +10 goals differential , whereas in Premier League West Ham are 14th with -13 goals differential , the goal differential is quite a big argument for me ; PL is a stronger league than Serie A but still I feel those 50/50 odds have small value on Fiorentina.

The RP side with West Ham, largely based on respective form in this competition, whilst acknowledging that Fiorentina had the much better end to the domestic season. Looking at how long it took each team to score their last 25 goals it’s 13 games for Fiorentina and 15 for West Ham. The Italians scored in 11 of those games and the Hammers in 13, with both seeing 9 games where btts landed. I’d rather back btts than try and pick the winner of the tie. Both bets close to a coin toss but I have a stronger view on the outcome of that market.

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17 hours ago, harry_rag said:

4 players who stand out for me are Cabral (scored in 4 of his last 10 starts and 10 of his last 20), Gonzalez (4-6), Antonio (4-6) and Benrahma (3-6).

All at "not bad" prices, might see if I can turn that to "pretty good" on BF, albeit it with the gamble on who starts. (All 4 are in the probable line ups.)

Interesting picks mate! @Fader has written his Fiorentina vs West Ham betting tips on the main site and made similar suggestions for the scorer markets. I'm personally backing Fiorentina to win on penalties. I wouldn't be surprised if it went all the way and I don't have it in me to risk jinxing Fader's West Ham boys by backing them! Both teams are 17/2 with Bet365 to win on penalties so no difference in price.

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Fiorentina vs West Ham

Fiorentina, buoyed by their previous result, will be hoping for more of the same after the 3-1 Serie A victory over Sassuolo. In that game, Fiorentina had 49% possession and 15 shots at goal with seven on target. La Viola closed the domestic campaign with two straight wins, finishing in 8th place. However, Fiorentina failed to lift the Coppa Italia title after losing 2-1 to Inter. This time, the Italian team wants to do better, and they don’t want another trophy to slip away from their hands. There is just a single fitness concern for the Fiorentina manager Vincenzo Italiano to be concerned about due to a largely intact squad. Salvatore Sirigu (Achilles tendon rupture) is out of contention.

Since suffering a loss in their previous game against Leicester City in Premier League action, West Ham United will be aiming to make amends here. In that match, West Ham United managed 51% possession and 16 shots at goal with three on target. David Moyes's West Ham United have converted a total of 8 times in the course of their most recent sextet of matches. Despite struggling throughout the Premier League campaign and being on the edge of relegation, the Hammers managed to secure a safe 14th-place finish. Now they have the opportunity to make this disappointing season more successful. With a completely healthy squad available for selection, West Ham United manager David Moyes has zero fitness worries whatsoever coming into this game.

Full-Time Winner Odds & Prediction                                                                            

It is going to be a tight match which can easily go either way. However, we believe Fiorentina is a bit closer to victory, and we will back the Italian team in this clash.

Goals Market Prediction

Neither team has been disciplined in the back recently. Fiorentina managed to keep a clean sheet only once on the previous eight occasions, while West Ham did it twice in the last nine matches. Therefore, we expect to see both teams scoring on Wednesday evening.

Fiorentina to Win @ 2.80

BTTS Yes @ 1.92

Correct score 2:1 @ 10.50

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4 hours ago, harry_rag said:

Couple of anytime matches; 4.8 Cabral and 4.9 Antonio. Happy with those prices assuming both start!

Cabral on the bench! :eyes

Jovic starts in his place and is a "B" system bet for me at 10/3 with PP

Also got matched on Benrahma at 5.53 and Bowen at 6.8. The only player I didn't get matched on was Gonzalez who I've won on more than once of late but I'm not chasing the price down too far (which inevitably suggests he'll be the only one to score).

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2 hours ago, harry_rag said:

Jovic starts in his place and is a "B" system bet for me at 10/3 with PP

Also got matched on Benrahma at 5.53

Very much a case VAR taking away with one hand then giving with the other!

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2 hours ago, harry_rag said:

Also got matched on Benrahma at 5.53 and Bowen at 6.8.

Should have doubled them up lol though they were much shorter than that with the bookies. To be fair I felt like I’d overbet the game slightly with so many players getting matched (one a non starter) but it worked out well enough (landed the 365 Bet Builder selection too). Well done to the Hammers fans, I expect you enjoyed that one.

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