CHELTENHAM TRENDS AND STATISTICS - REVIEW

[MCLARKE]

As expected the statistics provided a mix bag with some good successes mixed with others that were a disappointment.

The most profitable area was the handicap section which showed an overall profit at level stakes and an AE of 1.12. The highlights were :-

Distance winners. 8 winners from 137 runners with a profit of 46 points and an AE of 1.30.

Horses with 1 win in the last 10 runs. 2 wins from 45 runners with a profit of 38 points and an AE of 1.39.

Last ran in Ireland. 5 wins from 79 runners with a profit of 31 points and an AE of 1.25.

The major let down in the handicap section was those horses running at the same distance or 1 furlong less, 2 wins from 78 runs with a loss of 46 points and an AE of 0.55.

The Grade 1 section showed a small loss at level stakes but a profit at proportional stakes and an AE of 1.03. The highlights here were :-

Weight no more than 7lbs higher or 2lb lower. 10 wins from 96 runners with a profit of 16 points and an AE of 1.15.

Forecast odds 6/4 to 3/1. 6 wins from 15 runners with a profit of 2 points and an AE of 1.30.

The big disappointment was those horses that had won at least 4 of their last 6 starts with 6 wins from 30 runners, a loss of 12 points and an AE of 0.88.

There were only 2 positive recommendations in the jockey section and they both proved profitable, albeit there were only 9 runners between them.

The trainer section performed badly with Willie Mullins having a relatively poor record overall. However there was one standout :-

Forecast 11/4 or shorter. 6 wins from 9 runners with a profit of 7 points and an AE of 1.84.

The general section showed an overall profit of LSP but this was largely due to 1 or 2 big priced winners. Overall the AE was a poor 0.96.

The major highlight was those horses that had a poor run last time with 7 wins from 88 runners with a profit of 140 points and an AE of 1.96.

Also horses that last ran at Cheltenham performed well with 5 wins from 53 runs, a profit of 92 points and an AE of 1.63.

The major "reversion to the mean" was those horses that on their last run had a SP between 6/1 and 20/1. These produced 4 wins from 137 runners with a loss of 110 points and an AE of 0.79.

I could be accused of after timing but if overall we restricted the selections to those strategies that delivered a profit of at least 90 points then the selections would have generated 189 winners from 3,010 runners with a profit of 275 points and an AE of 1.04.

I will dust this down next year and see if we can be a bit more specific about the areas we focus on.

Tomorrow I will have a look at the Aintree festival and highlight the major statistics and trends.