Jump to content

CHELTENHAM TRENDS AND STATISTICS - REVIEW


Recommended Posts

As expected the statistics provided a mix bag with some good successes mixed with others that were a disappointment.

The most profitable area was the handicap section which showed an overall profit at level stakes and an AE of 1.12. The highlights were :-

Distance winners. 8 winners from 137 runners with a profit of 46 points and an AE of 1.30.

Horses with 1 win in the last 10 runs. 2 wins from 45 runners with a profit of 38 points and an AE of 1.39.

Last ran in Ireland. 5 wins from 79 runners with a profit of 31 points and an AE of 1.25.

The major let down in the handicap section was those horses running at the same distance or 1 furlong less, 2 wins from 78 runs with a loss of 46 points and an AE of 0.55.

The Grade 1 section showed a small loss at level stakes but a profit at proportional stakes and an AE of 1.03. The highlights here were :-

Weight no more than 7lbs higher or 2lb lower. 10 wins from 96 runners with a profit of 16 points and an AE of 1.15.

Forecast odds 6/4 to 3/1. 6 wins from 15 runners with a profit of 2 points and an AE of 1.30.

The big disappointment was those horses that had won at least 4 of their last 6 starts with 6 wins from 30 runners, a loss of 12 points and an AE of 0.88.

There were only 2 positive recommendations in the jockey section and they both proved profitable, albeit there were only 9 runners between them.

The trainer section performed badly with Willie Mullins having a relatively poor record overall. However there was one standout :-

Forecast 11/4 or shorter. 6 wins from 9 runners with a profit of 7 points and an AE of 1.84.

The general section showed an overall profit of LSP but this was largely due to 1 or 2 big priced winners. Overall the AE was a poor 0.96.

The major highlight was those horses that had a poor run last time with 7 wins from 88 runners with a profit of 140 points and an AE of 1.96.

Also horses that last ran at Cheltenham performed well with 5 wins from 53 runs, a profit of 92 points and an AE of 1.63.

The major "reversion to the mean" was those horses that on their last run had a SP between 6/1 and 20/1. These produced 4 wins from 137 runners with a loss of 110 points and an AE of 0.79.

I could be accused of after timing but if overall we restricted the selections to those strategies that delivered a profit of at least 90 points then the selections would have generated 189 winners from 3,010 runners with a profit of 275 points and an AE of 1.04.

I will dust this down next year and see if we can be a bit more specific about the areas we focus on.

Tomorrow I will have a look at the Aintree festival and highlight the major statistics and trends.

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

×
×
  • Create New...