NAPS COMPETITION - PROPOSED NEW RULES VOTE

[MCLARKE]

1 hour ago, justanotherpunter said:

option 5 (not officially) states that you can select a horse the night before but not the price - i.e. you will get settled at BOG or SP depending on what is placed in the rules by you. - in other words no early prices allowed

Not quite sure why you would not allow the price the night before

[MCLARKE]

33 minutes ago, Zilzalian said:

Anyone quoting authenticity needs to consider authenticity in the context of the competition and not necessarily re bookies and betting in the real world, i say this because in effect the comp is as authentic as a nine bob note because where in the real world do 30+ out of 90 people bet on 100+ shots on the 27th 28th 29th 30th of the month? In effect the Naps comp is more akin to a fantasy football comp. Its a bit of fun that all people can have a go at at no cost. To support my argument try putting a rule in that says you have to prove you backed your nap to a fiver and see how many pick 66/1+ naps. Lets keep it as it is, a fun comp and just give everyone an equal chance of winning and like i and others have said if it isn't broken don't fix it.

If we wanted to publicise how good the punters lounge naps are we would be open to accusations that they are not realistic.

[Zilzalian]

1 hour ago, MCLARKE said:

If we wanted to publicise how good the punters lounge naps are we would be open to accusations that they are not realistic.

Anyone could see how skewed the Naps table is just by my above reasoning Micheal and that would draw equal accusations of not being realistic, I think the most winners comp is far more accurate as to the skills of "our punters" to be honest so maybe that should be the main topic of publication/promotion. Add on to that THE BRIGADIER doing well throughout the season is a very good advert for the site, I am sure many have seen him up there have wondered who/what is PUNTERS LOUNGE and popped along for a look. I am hoping he can find a biggie to get back into top three.

[MCLARKE]

3 hours ago, MCLARKE said:

Anyone quoting authenticity needs to consider authenticity in the context of the competition and not necessarily re bookies and betting in the real world, i say this because in effect the comp is as authentic as a nine bob note because where in the real world do 30+ out of 90 people bet on 100+ shots on the 27th 28th 29th 30th of the month? In effect the Naps comp is more akin to a fantasy football comp. Its a bit of fun that all people can have a go at at no cost.

I would dispute that the comp is not authentic. I do agree that you should really ignore 100/1+ shots, the favourite longshot bias would suggest it's nigh on impossible to make profits on these longshots. The Naps table supports this.

Naps at odds over 25/1 show a big loss, those at 25/1 or below show a profit. 

The nap selections on here below 25/1 are very authentic.

[justanotherpunter]

13 hours ago, harry_rag said:

Surely if you go down the route you describe (posting the night before but not allowed to take a price) then it's settled at SP full stop? What would "BOG" be in this context, where no early price is taken?

Yep exactly right - if you placed a bet at bet365 the night before - or before 10am soon to be - then you would get settled at SP

If you placed a bet after 10am then you would get the price at time of bet - but also BOG

I only stated -  i.e. you will get settled at BOG or SP depending on what is placed in the rules by you- to allow for the possibility of these rules whatever mclarke decides to use for the competition -

I would suggest SP if posted before this time - no early prices allowed - but this is not my call.

[justanotherpunter]

12 hours ago, MCLARKE said:

Not quite sure why you would not allow the price the night before

Does bet365???? - you would get no BOG and get hammered with rule 4's all day long when non runners are announced

[justanotherpunter]

10 hours ago, Zilzalian said:

Anyone could see how skewed the Naps table is just by my above reasoning Micheal and that would draw equal accusations of not being realistic, I think the most winners comp is far more accurate as to the skills of "our punters" to be honest so maybe that should be the main topic of publication/promotion. Add on to that THE BRIGADIER doing well throughout the season is a very good advert for the site, I am sure many have seen him up there have wondered who/what is PUNTERS LOUNGE and popped along for a look. I am hoping he can find a biggie to get back into top three.

I wonder if the brigadier gets early prices the night before and BOG in the other competition ???? 

[justanotherpunter]

8 hours ago, MCLARKE said:

I would dispute that the comp is not authentic. I do agree that you should really ignore 100/1+ shots, the favourite longshot bias would suggest it's nigh on impossible to make profits on these longshots. The Naps table supports this.

Naps at odds over 25/1 show a big loss, those at 25/1 or below show a profit. 

The nap selections on here below 25/1 are very authentic.

It would seem to be reasonable for punters to back 100/1+ shots as those that back 1/12 shots 

[MCLARKE]

1 hour ago, justanotherpunter said:

It would seem to be reasonable for punters to back 100/1+ shots as those that back 1/12 shots 

They can obviously back whatever they like but the stats show that those who back 100+1 shots make a big loss, those who back long odds on shots make a decent profit

[MCLARKE]

1 hour ago, justanotherpunter said:

Does bet365???? - you would get no BOG and get hammered with rule 4's all day long when non runners are announced

 

1 hour ago, justanotherpunter said:

Does bet365???? - you would get no BOG and get hammered with rule 4's all day long when non runners are announced

You can take a price the night before

[MCLARKE]

1 hour ago, justanotherpunter said:

I wonder if the brigadier gets early prices the night before and BOG in the other competition ???? 

On the stats now @The Brigadiertakes the price but not BOG. In the Racing Post Naps Competition selections are settled at SP (I think).

[justanotherpunter]

2 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:

They can obviously back whatever they like but the stats show that those who back 100+1 shots make a big loss, those who back long odds on shots make a decent profit

Stats can lie - I have never managed to make a profit betting long odds on shots in my lifetime - however by being slightly choosy and with some luck you can make some profit from longer odds shots. Look at your thread for instance ODDS ON SELECTIONS TRIAL - has this ever made you a decent profit ???? No matter how hard you try.

By being selective to a degree however and with some decent luck odds prices 10/1-to over 100/1 have made me and others some decent profit in the long run.

Try a system by following all punters selections on the naps table over a period of time - say 1 month ( can paper trade if you like - but I find that actual small stakes cash will give a truer reflection)

- then take out all the non profitable punters - remove all the odds on selectors also - keep all the regular winners  that show a profit - see how you get on.

Adjust every month - take out non profitable punters - replace with some that perform better - rinse and repeat - works for me most times.

Keep stakes small and have a hardcore of around 20 that you follow daily - see how you get on.

Sorry to ramble on - giving away trade secrets - I may have to develop another system to replace - but getting on in years so not such a big deal for me.😀

Hope the above will give some clues/assistance to other punters on here - however I will stay away from odds on shots for the duration. 

[justanotherpunter]

20 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:

 

You can take a price the night before

Yes just now you can take a - price the night before but - see what happens if non runners appear and also no BOG soon

[Akacheeco]

Option 2

[The Brigadier]

13 hours ago, Zilzalian said:

Anyone could see how skewed the Naps table is just by my above reasoning Micheal and that would draw equal accusations of not being realistic, I think the most winners comp is far more accurate as to the skills of "our punters" to be honest so maybe that should be the main topic of publication/promotion. Add on to that THE BRIGADIER doing well throughout the season is a very good advert for the site, I am sure many have seen him up there have wondered who/what is PUNTERS LOUNGE and popped along for a look. I am hoping he can find a biggie to get back into top three.

Thanks @Zilzalian - I need to find one or two to push myself back up there for sure 

 

[Xtc12]

Option 4 please

No matter what we do it has to be a level playing field otherwise in my view its not a fair competition.

[MCLARKE]

1 hour ago, justanotherpunter said:

Stats can lie - I have never managed to make a profit betting long odds on shots in my lifetime - however by being slightly choosy and with some luck you can make some profit from longer odds shots. Look at your thread for instance ODDS ON SELECTIONS TRIAL - has this ever made you a decent profit ???? No matter how hard you try.

By being selective to a degree however and with some decent luck odds prices 10/1-to over 100/1 have made me and others some decent profit in the long run.

Try a system by following all punters selections on the naps table over a period of time - say 1 month ( can paper trade if you like - but I find that actual small stakes cash will give a truer reflection)

- then take out all the non profitable punters - remove all the odds on selectors also - keep all the regular winners  that show a profit - see how you get on.

Adjust every month - take out non profitable punters - replace with some that perform better - rinse and repeat - works for me most times.

Keep stakes small and have a hardcore of around 20 that you follow daily - see how you get on.

Sorry to ramble on - giving away trade secrets - I may have to develop another system to replace - but getting on in years so not such a big deal for me.😀

Hope the above will give some clues/assistance to other punters on here - however I will stay away from odds on shots for the duration.

The most profitable area is long odds on, odds at 1/4 or less 94 wins from 103 bets, lsp 10.76, ROI 10.4%

100/1 and above, 16 win or placed from 687 bets, lsp - 221, ROI -32%

[Wanderlust]

I am happy enough leaving it as it is. If there is a feeling to change it, then option 3 is the best one. 

So taking the splinters out I will opt for option 3 a short head in front of option 1

[harry_rag]

2 hours ago, Xtc12 said:

No matter what we do it has to be a level playing field otherwise in my view its not a fair competition.

I'm pretty sure no-one else has gone as far as to propose going "flat only" and banning selections over the jumps! 

[MCLARKE]

13 minutes ago, harry_rag said:

I'm pretty sure no-one else has gone as far as to propose going "flat only" and banning selections over the jumps! 

Based on my record over the jumps not a bad idea !

[justanotherpunter]

2 hours ago, MCLARKE said:

The most profitable area is long odds on, odds at 1/4 or less 94 wins from 103 bets, lsp 10.76, ROI 10.4%

100/1 and above, 16 win or placed from 687 bets, lsp - 221, ROI -32%

Maybe on paper/overall - whenever I see an odds on fav 1/2 or shorter then I always back another to beat it - seems to work out ok for me - the rest is just history - can't make much profit on bygone days results - got to look for an edge 

[waggy]

Option 4

[Donnyflyer]

Option 1.

[mickyftm32]

Option 4

[roger2256]

22 hours ago, MCLARKE said:

I would dispute that the comp is not authentic. I do agree that you should really ignore 100/1+ shots, the favourite longshot bias would suggest it's nigh on impossible to make profits on these longshots. The Naps table supports this.

Naps at odds over 25/1 show a big loss, those at 25/1 or below show a profit. 

The nap selections on here below 25/1 are very authentic.

With all due respect  that's a rather disrespectful comment to to make . The only time the table makes an overall profit is when the big odds selectors hit .

Big hitters like;

Silverton

Bbbbbbc

Garry66

Justanotherpunter

To name but a few ,consistent profit 

There are many others too as you well know. They are the people who keep the comp interesting .

Just a note , has your long odds on thread actually made a worthwhile profit at any point  ?? 

I respect the work you do here but please don't belittle the members who nap against the obvious 

[MCLARKE]

20 minutes ago, roger2256 said:

With all due respect  that's a rather disrespectful comment to to make . The only time the table makes an overall profit is when the big odds selectors hit .

Big hitters like;

Silverton

Bbbbbbc

Garry66

Justanotherpunter

To name but a few ,consistent profit 

There are many others too as you well know. They are the people who keep the comp interesting .

Just a note , has your long odds on thread actually made a worthwhile profit at any point  ?? 

I respect the work you do here but please don't belittle the members who nap against the obvious 

I'm not being disrespectful, I'm just stating the facts.

Although the shorter odds don't make the headlines overall they show a profit. The longer odds do make the headlines but overall they show a loss.

There have been 2,533 selections at 50/1 or above and just 25% have won (less than 1%) with a loss of 524 points (-21%).

Whilst I applaud those who manage to pick the longer priced winners it is the shorter odds selections that make up the profits.

I certainly don't belittle those who go for the big priced selections as I am one of them !

In terms of my odds on seletions the results were disappointing. However over a long period of time the returns from odds on selections will generate a better return than long priced selections. It is an observed phenomenon known as the favourite-longshot bias.

[calva decoy]

Option 4 for me .

Re this competition , if you look on the last couple of days of any month ( and I include myself in this ) you'll get loads of people placing naps with prices of 33-100/1 shots in all hope that one will oblige which for probably 95% + of the people doing so wouldn't go with their regular betting patterns & similarly so for the fantastic Festival Competitions that are run on here , it's not always the best punter who wins , a little bit of luck from a long shot Larry can also take the spoils .

[1945harry]

Option 3.

[Zilzalian]

Are we, me included getting off topic here? its a simple enough vote on a simple enough problem.

[harry_rag]

7 minutes ago, Zilzalian said:

Are we, me included getting off topic here? its a simple enough vote on a simple enough problem.

With respect, how dare you belittle our valued members who have taken the time to share their words of wisdom! 

Buckle up, we’ve got the best part of another fortnight yet! I vote we bring the deadline forward but I suspect @MCLARKE enjoys watching our little Oxford Debating Society having a bit of to and fro.

10 hours ago, MCLARKE said:

There have been 2,533 selections at 50/1 or above and just 25% have won

To be fair, that’s a pretty decent strike rate at those odds!