Ligue 1 Predictions > Mar 31st - Apr 2nd

[StevieDay1983]

The odds for the next round of French Ligue 1 matches are here. PSG haven't quite got over the line yet after their shock 2-0 loss at home to Rennes and the pressure has been turned on slightly with Marseille, Lens, Monaco, and Lille from the chasing pack all also winning. Nice, Lorient, Reims, and Lyon all saw their European qualification hopes dashed after dropping points. Montpellier extended their winning run to 3 league games. It's still bad news for Nantes, Troyes, and Angers who can't buy a win at the minute. Give us your predictions below! 

[philipwalsh19]

Any insight on why Lorient are such a big price (8.6) away to Lille?

- Only 2 places (5pts) between them in the league
- Both picked up 8 points from the last 5 games
- Lorient have won 3 of the last 5 head-to-heads
- No recent new Lorient injuries
- No "Lorient are awful away & Lille are amazing at home" angle

Lorient are overperforming xG and Lille underperforming in the last 3 and 5 games (..to a net total of 1 goal per game in Lorient's favour). So, if I were to pick betweem them, then that alone would nudge me towards Lille.

...but it doesn't come close to explaning the odds, which give Lille a 73% likelihood of winning.

Are there any other big factors at play which aren't coming through in the numbers?

(I'm aware that Le Fee has announced that he's off in the summer, but I wouldn't expect that's having much effect on the odds for this weekend)

[malabgd]

Olympique Marseille vs Montpellier HSC

2023-03-31T21:00+02:00

 

Olympique Marseille

Doubtful: Kolasinac (23/4 d)

Out (injuries/other): Harit (10/0 m), Ounahi (7/1 m, out for the season)

Suspended: Balerdi (27/0 d)

 

Montpellier HSC

Doubtful:

Out (injuries/other): Makouana (8/0 f), Estève (19/0 d), Maouassa (25/3 d)

Suspended: Ferri (25/0 m)

 

Daily updated injuries and suspensions information from more than 100 football leagues and competitions worldwide at: www.injuriesandsuspensions.com

 

 

Over/Under Goals
Olympique Marseille 14 home games	Montpellier HSC 13 away games

79%	Over 1.5 goals	77%
64%	Over 2.5 goals	46%
36%	Over 3.5 goals	31%
14%	Over 4.5 goals	31%
7%	Over 5.5 goals	31%
21%	Under 1.5 goals	23%
36%	Under 2.5 goals	54%
71%	Over 0.5 goals at half-time	69%
50%	Over 1.5 goals at half-time	62%
0%	Over 2.5 goals at half-time	15%

[philipwalsh19]

On 3/29/2023 at 1:18 PM, philipwalsh19 said:

Any insight on why Lorient are such a big price (8.6) away to Lille?

- Only 2 places (5pts) between them in the league
- Both picked up 8 points from the last 5 games
- Lorient have won 3 of the last 5 head-to-heads
- No recent new Lorient injuries
- No "Lorient are awful away & Lille are amazing at home" angle

Lorient are overperforming xG and Lille underperforming in the last 3 and 5 games (..to a net total of 1 goal per game in Lorient's favour). So, if I were to pick betweem them, then that alone would nudge me towards Lille.

...but it doesn't come close to explaning the odds, which give Lille a 73% likelihood of winning.

Are there any other big factors at play which aren't coming through in the numbers?

(I'm aware that Le Fee has announced that he's off in the summer, but I wouldn't expect that's having much effect on the odds for this weekend)

Just catching up on this game

 

• xG - Lille (1.96) v Lorient (0.1)
• Lille won 3-1, but it was 1-1 until the 89th minute
• Half of Lille's xG came after Lorient's 79th minute red card
• Lorient were no threat at all. Even their goal was as much an offensive block as it was a shot  

 

The xG numbers reflected Lille's dominance, but if you'd laid them and cashed out late you'd be on to a winner.