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Racing Chat - Saturday 18th March

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After the four hectic days of the Cheltenham Festival it’s back to the more mundane but still competitive racing from Uttoxeter with their flagship race the Midlands Grand National and Kempton. Good to soft at the latter but softer still at the Midlands tack with officially soft ground.
Kempton 1.30
We kick things off today with a seven runner class 3 novices’ handicap chase run over 2m 2F in which I feel we have one of the better bets of the afternoon in the Laura Morgan trained Whistleinthedock. Morgan must still be on cloud nine after her Ninetofive ran a stormer to finish runner up in the Turners Novices’ Chase on Thursday. The eight year old looks an improved horse since joining Morgan from Richard Hawker, a definite trainer upgrade. He’s won both his two chases and although it was only a match last time he easily put the 14lb rated superior Since Day One away by 9L. Tom George’s Stormin Crossgales’s form ties in with the top weights Cap Du Mathan and both have claims but it’s the Patrick Crowley ridden eight year old for me.
WHISTLEINTHEDARK 2 points win @ 4/1 bet365
Uttoxeter 1.50
A class 3 2m 4F class 3 handicap hurdle with ten facing the starter is next up and features a Dan Skelton handicap debutant, ridden by his brother Harry, in likely favourite Hitching Jacking. He’s won here over course and distance and could easily take this but looks short enough to my eyes and I’ll take him on. A close eye must be kept on the bottom weight Limited Reserve trained by Christian Williams. He’s fallen down the weight to a winning mark so a market watch is essential. He can race off of a handicap mark of 105 today having been rated as high as 134 back in the day. I’ll chance him to small stakes each way but you would really want to see some support for him. Jack Tudor rides.
LIMITED RESERVE 1/2 bet each way @ 16/1 bet365 1/5th 123
Kempton 2.05
A decent class 2 2m 5f handicap hurdle is up next with a dozen runners. Like many of the handicaps on ITV today it has a very open look about it. I’m prepared to give Harry Fry’s Lady Adare another chance following a disappointing effort on her re-appearance on soft ground having had her wind done since but my main bet here is the Gary Moore trained Yorksea who’s shown progressive form this season culminating in his latest effort when a credible 4th in the Betfair Hurdle beaten 13L. He remains on that mark and under his regular rider Niall Houlihan can take this competitive handicap. There are many others that can be fancied including Paul Nicholls’ Outlaw Peter and Nicky Henderson’s The Bomber Liston who’s surely better than his latest effort. An open race but Yorksea has arguably the best recent form and is worth backing each way.
YORKSEA 1 point each way @ 7/1 bet365 1/5th 1234
Uttoxeter 2.25
Another competitive handicap hurdle this time over 2m 7F 70 yards with a decent sized field of 14 declared. The more likelier lightly raced types are towards the bottom of the weights here with Kim Bailey’s Trelawne and Jonjo O’Neill’s Collectors Item making their handicap debuts and are a pair of possible players. Bottom weight Lord Snootie from Christian William’s’ stable falls into the same bracket and also holds claims. I’m going two handed into the race with Dan Skelton’s Wilde About Oscar my number one hope. He’s two from two here and appeared to be on his way back when 6th in the Lanzarote Handicap Hurdle at Kempton last time. He won on this card a couple of years ago and is now 10lb lower than that mark. The other one I think could run well is the top weight Sam Brown for the in form Anthony Honeyball camp. He’s been chasing for his last dozen starts but reverts to hurdles and a 12lb lower handicap mark than his chase one so could be well treated with Aidan Coleman booked to ride. He can race today off of 147 which is the chase mark he was on when winning at Aintree over fences last season by 15L. He’ll love the muddy conditions.
WILDE ABOUT OSCAR 1 point each way @ 17/2 William Hill 1/5th 1234
SAM BROWN 1/2 point each way @ 14/1 bet365 1/5th 1234
Kempton 2.40
Thirteen face the starter for this class 2 2m 4 1/2F handicap chase. Yet again it’s a wide open handicap where many can be given chances. Paul Nicholls’ Complete Unknown is a lightly raced gelding who’s shown enough in just two starts over fences to suggest he’ll go close whilst Jane Williams’ Galahad Quest appeared to improve for first time cheek pieces when beating a fair type in Iron Bridge at Warwick last month. A 7lb rise may not stop him being competitive here. Harry Derham’s Fidello Vallis is two from three at track and ran well on his first start for Derham having joined from Paul Nicholls and is another for the short list. The best value here though maybe the Harry Whittington trained 9 year old Rouge Vif who has tumbled down the weights racing off of 137 here having been rated as high as 164 in his pomp. Whittington had trained him for the Grand Annual at the Festival earlier this week but unfortunate he missed the cut. His trainer was bullish about his chances in that contest in a recent interview and is worth chancing here each way with additional places. Bet365 actually priced him at 33/1 when giving out prices on Thursday which I’m afraid will be long gone by the time you’re reading this.
ROUGE VIF 1 point each way @ 12/1 bet354 1/5th 1234
3.00 Uttoxeter
Today’s feature race is the £150,000 Midlands Grand National run over a stamina sapping 4M 2F in soft ground with a good field of 18 runners. Top weight Iwilldoit trained by Sam Thomas comes here having won the Welsh Grand National and the Classic Chase at Warwick rising some 15lb. He’s an out and out stayer who despite his big weight has to be considered. There’s plenty of threats mind including Oliver Signy’s French Paradoxe who would be on a five timer had he not crashed out at the last with the race at his mercy at Ffos Las in December. He’s impressed me and although he’s yet to race beyond three miles shapes like an out and out stayer who loves the mud and is my selection here with Gavin Sheehan on board, who’s been on top for his last five starts. Charlie Longsdon’s JP McManus owned Guetapan Collonges looked good winning here over 3M last time and has claims although is actually held by Iwilldoit on Warwick Classic Chase form. A tough race that will be all about the strongest stayer and the unexposed stayer French Paradoxe maybe the one.
FRENCH PARADOXE 1 point each way @ 9/1 bet365 1/5th 12345
3.35 Uttoxeter
A decent £40,000 3M class 2 novices’ handicap chase featuring eleven young chasers. The race has a very open look about it with a case to be made for literally every runner. Top weight Iron Bridge missed a few opportunities at Cheltenham this week to run here and despite top weight Jonjo O’Neill’s seven year old is on my short list. Anthony Honeyball’s Gustavian bolted up last time but may struggle to turn the form around with his previous conqueror Super Survivor, trained by Jamie Snowden, who was a good winner from Mister Coffey at Chepstow back in December with Gustavian 31L back in third and only 5lb better off. He’s a progressive chaser who is the pick here having only been shunted up 7lb for that victory.
SUPER SURVIVOR 2 points win @ 11/2 William Hill
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Truckers Tavern                          Utx/                          1/40th of a pt  ew   20/1

Move it Like Minnie                  2 05 Km                     1/40pt of a pt  ew   16/1

Dolphin Square                        2 25 Km                     1/40th of  a pt ew   28/1




P/L    + 160.45   pts           

Edited by black rabbit
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After the excitement of Cheltenham, it is back to more mundane racing this week-end with the grandly named Midlands Grand National taking centre stage at Uttoxeter. It is run over 4 miles, 2 furlongs and 8 yards and is open to horses aged 5 years or older. Off time is 3.00.

18 go to post and some bookmakers are offering each-way terms of 6 places which make this an excellent betting proposition.

I have looked at the statistics over the last 9 years and these are my key conclusions.

Horses should ideally have HAD a reasonable rest. Those that last ran less than 38 days ago have just 2 wins from 97 attempts with a loss of 59 points at SP. The remainder have recorded 7 wins from 62 attempts with a profit of 6 points.

It is an advantage to be carrying a light weight. The ideal range is 10st 3lb to 10st 12lb. These horses have produced 8 wins from 62 runs with a profit of 27 points. The remainder have produced just 1 win from 97 attempts with a loss of 80 points.

This leaves 3 horses. I would suggest backing these each way.

SECRET REPRIEVE 7/1 – 5 places

TRUCKERS LODGE 11/1 – 5 places

FLOUEUR 66/1 – 5 places


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0.1 e/w L15 boylesports = 3pts  N0 RETURN

2. utt- ASK EARLY 12/1 4places

2.40 kemp-CAPTAIN TOM CAT 22/1 4places

3.00utt-TIME TO GET UP 10/1 5places

3.50 Kemp EDEFFS ELTON 13/2 3places

Combi f'/c  ,25   3.00 utt = 3pts NO RETURN

time to get up-the two amigos -secret reprive-major dundee

1.pt e/w 3.00 utt MAJOR DUNDEE  12/1 5places bet365 won 16.40

1pt e/w 2.25 utt-FLIGHT DECK 22/1 4places  bet365 LOST

10pts Played in total Return 18.80pts

P/L + 40.82 pts 👍

Edited by Tedthewolf
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Lucky 15 (Crap prices but I think these should have a good crack at winning)

2.05 Km York Sea 10/3

2.25 Uttx Collectors Item 10/3

2.40 Km Complete Unknown 5/2

3.35 Uttx Iron Bridge 5/2

1 x 0.20 L15 = 3 pts poss ret 127.80


1.50 Uttx Limited Reserve 0.50ew at 16/1, Raffertys Return 1 pt win at 5/1

2.25 Uttx Sam Brown 0.5 ew at 12/1 and Trelawne 0.50 ew at 8/1 4p

3.00 Uttx Secret Reprieve 1 pt win at 10.0

3.35 Uttx Iron Bridge 2 pts win at 4.9

2.05 Km Scarface 0.50 ew at 7/1, Move It like Minnie 0.50 ew at 15/2. 4p

2.40 Km Captain Tom Cat 0.50ew at 18/1

4.50 Thurles Cher Why Not 0.50 ew at 15/2 5p

8.00 Wolv Follow Your Heart 2 pts win at 4.9 (with Billy The Kid aboard) My PL Nap 

Total stakes = 16 pts today


One of my two main bets failed by a head and the other with wonder boy aboard fluffed the start.  I got a couple of winners and a couple of placed wins.  I always seem to back the wrong @richard-westwood's horse.  I keep telling myself to back them both.  A loss on the day of 4.20 points.  Makes my MTD + 6.67 and YTD -88.60


Edited by The Equaliser
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5 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

3.00 utt

Secret reprieve   8.5 7/1 

Major Dundee  8.3  12/1 

Bushy Park    7.9 

Tricky race as sometimes anything can win this but it usually goes to an unexposed light weighted novice ...so gor safety I'll go ew top 2 ...6 places   5pt ew 

Major wins 🏆......returns around 80 ....been a good week ...think I need to give my fingers a rest now 😴 

Total returns this week are 865.00 ....minus 200 to bring my betting bank back to full strength......so donation to holiday fund 2024 is a healthy 665.00 ...my target was 38.00 ( 462 in fund since payed off this years holiday.........to make it 500 for a deposit for next year .....

Total in holiday 2024 fund is currently  1127.00 

Edited by richard-westwood
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